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MayrinVillanuevaTetas
2022.11.30 03:16 auronplay10 MayrinVillanuevaTetas
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2024.05.10 18:00 Contactunderground The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi.
 | Rama’s Mission to Paititi submitted by Contactunderground to HighStrangeness [link] [comments] Joseph Burkes MD 2018, edited 2023 https://preview.redd.it/qc3aps0jgmzc1.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f22df0ab50e0812492d38e504e469c3bd28efe8b The amazing story of Mission Rama dates to the 1970s. The first group of Rama contact workers had their initial encounters in Peru. Their experiences involved many sightings of what they described as “extraterrestrial craft” that were facilitated using a form of telepathic communication called automatic writing. The Mission Rama activists even reported having onboard encounters. Sixto Paz Wells and other Latin-American contactees have published books in Spanish describing their experiences. In my opinion, their narratives should be seriously studied by all contact and disclosure activists. Representatives of both the North and South American Contact Networks Meet in Los Angeles. In 1994 Fernando Limaco, a retired dental surgeon and experienced Rama leader drove down from the San Francisco Bay Area with several close supporters to meet with our Los Angeles based Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind Initiative (CE-5) team. A member of our group, Captain Joe Vallejo, was a United Airlines 747 pilot. He arranged for us to meet the Mission Rama representatives at his home located in the Simi Valley. Fernando’s talk was given entirely in Spanish with the help of simultaneous translation provided by his companions and Captain Vallejo. Having Joe there was extremely helpful because of his language skills and his excellent command of Latin American contactee literature. This combination of talents helped him translate some of the more advanced concepts of the Rama cosmology as presented by Dr. Limaco. Mission Rama Started in Peru in 1974 Our Los Angeles CE5 team was very eager to hear what the Mission Rama people were prepared to tell us. I had given each member of my group a copy of an article published in “UFO Library Magazine” by Yolanda Marcino, a past United States Rama President. This authoritative document, in a rather obscure publication with limited circulation, described the early Mission Rama extraterrestrial encounters that started in Peru in 1974. Those contacts involved the experiences of university student Sixto Paz Wells and a group of his young friends. They reportedly had repeated encounters in the desert region near Lima called Chilca. From Yolanda Marcino’s account, we also learned that Sixto and others had reportedly been transported via an inter-dimensional portal to an extraterrestrial base located on a moon of Jupiter. We know this satellite as Ganymede. Dr. Limaco spoke with authority as a seasoned Rama activist. That afternoon in the Joe Vallejo’s living room, we heard a spellbinding account of what in my opinion is an adventure demonstrating great courage and high ideals. Since 1993, I have followed the developments in Mission Rama. It now goes by the name Rahma. In Sanskrit, “Ra” signifies the heavens; “ma” means the Earth and the “h” in between the “Ra” and “ma”, stands for humanity. As a contact activist with 30 years of experience, in my judgment Rahma is still playing an important role in helping humanity build a cooperative relationship with flying saucer intelligences. Dr. Limaco and his companions explained that it was Mission Rama’s custom to promote the development of psychic ability through meditation and certain other special mental exercises. Over time, many people in their network have become skilled in the practice of automatic writing. Telepathically received information is deemed accurate when multiple automatic writers working separately obtain the identical or at least very similar messages. (This is like the practice of remote viewing in which multiple viewers are independently tasked with the same target.) An individual that consistently channels accurate messages is described by Rama people as being a “good antenna.” Rama’s Mission to Patiti Our contact team was composed of middle-class people with good paying jobs. Among our ranks were three physicians working for the Southern California Permanente Group. Other members included Dr. Dixie Sullivan working as a clinical psychologist and her friend Dotha Weybourne, married to a wealthy lawyer. In contrast, Dr. Limaco’s team was mostly composed of immigrants, some newly arrived. Even those that were professionals in their nations of origin could be severely challenged by a new language and culture. Some didn’t have papers to work in the US. I later learned from Dr. Limaco that he had assisted Rama activists who were having problems with the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Once in 1990, he even drove all the way to Salinas Valley to help a comrade file papers to avoid deportation. On the ride back to the Bay Area he had a remarkable sighting. It was late at night, and he reported hearing the word “Paititi” repeatedly in his mind. In a field nearby, he saw a disc shaped object hovering close to the ground. If I recall correctly, Dr. Limaco stated that when he first heard the word, he did not know that Paititi was a remote location deep in the Peruvian Andes rainforest. Later in 1990, via mental communications received by multiple Rama activists in different locations, it became known that a major encounter was going to take place. This time it would not occur in Chilca, the desert site south of Lima. Instead, the location was Paititi in the remote jungle situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains. According to Dr. Limaco, in 1990 there were no roads to Paititi. It was sparsely populated by indigenous people that had little contact with the rest of the country. The only way to get there was by foot and this meant trekking through densely forested jungle full of poisonous plants, insects, and snakes. Those chosen for the mission would have to cross rivers infested with alligators, some up to six feet long. Automatic Writing Revealed Who Was Selected for the Jungle Mission Via a series of telepathic communications, Rama people learned that six individuals for the perilous expedition would be selected by the alleged “ETs.” In Spanish. the Rama activists call them “los hermanos mayors” (older brothers). At a general meeting in Peru attended by over two hundred supporters, the question was asked, who in the audience would be willing to go on the mission to Paititi? Everyone in the crowd raised a hand to volunteer for the encounter. Later it became clear as the result of ongoing messages from the flying saucer intelligences, that if any of the six initially selected by the “extraterrestrials” could not participate, then there could be no substitutions. Only those specifically chosen by “los hermanos mayores” would be welcomed to journey on foot to the far distant jungle location. According to Dr. Limaco’s account, the Rama people carried rice and beans as their only food during their trek to Paititi. They prepared these provisions nightly in a large cast iron pot. They were city people and not skilled woodsmen accustomed to the hardships of the rainforest. These Rama contact workers were, however, empowered by an intense desire for further contact with what they imagined was a technologically and ethically advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Daily prayer and meditation provided them with both emotional support and spiritual sustenance. They believed that they were somehow being protected by an unseen intelligence that was profoundly spiritual and desired their mission to succeed. Battery Packs Were Mysteriously Drained Dr. Limaco told us that they carried a video camera to document their anticipated encounter. After several days of marching into the jungle, they checked the camera’s batteries. The packs had been fully charged prior to their setting out for Paititi. To their dismay, they found that all the batteries were dead. The Rama team buried the now useless heavy equipment under a tall tree. They hoped to retrieve it on their way back to civilization. The Hired Guide Warned Them of Danger During the first portion of their trek, a hired guide led them further and further into the rainforest. He was well-aware of their destination and the risks to their safety that the journey entailed. The team used machetes to cut a path for themselves. After several days of hacking their way through the jungle their guide gave them this warning. “I am not going on any further and neither are you! Because beyond this point the people out there eat people! The Rama activists were disappointed to hear this disturbing pronouncement. They discussed their options, and the consensus was they would go on without the guide. Some days after exhausting trail blazing, they reportedly were so exhausted that they failed to cook supper. At nightfall, they crowded together in their small tent that was their only shelter. Despite being hungry, sleep came quickly. One evening according to Dr. Limaco, they were so drained of strength that they threw themselves down on the sand adjacent to a river. Huddled together for warmth, they fell asleep. At daybreak, they were shocked to find themselves surrounded by poisonous snakes. They apparently had slithered up to the contact workers to keep warm. One might expect the vipers to bite their frightened human bedpartners, Instead the venomous creatures slowly moved away as the morning temperature rose. Rivers and streams provided the Rama group with freshwater for drinking and bathing. This vital resource, however, was also a source of danger. Alligators were abundant in the waters they had to cross. A Grim Decision Was Made Uncertain as to how long they could go on before someone sustained injury, they made a grim decision. If one or more were seriously wounded or became sick, the rest of the team would leave most of the supplies with the casualties. Those that could still go on, would do so, without the others. They promised one another that they would return to pick up the sick or wounded on the way back. Fortuitously, none sustained serious injury or became too ill to continue. A Surprise Peace Offering Another potential danger came from the indigenous peoples of the rainforest as mentioned above. These groups have their own languages and cultures. Historically they have had bad relations with the European influenced population of Peru. Encroachment on indigenous peoples’ hunting grounds by settlements of townspeople and forestry operation have resulted in mutual suspicion and even violent confrontations. One day while passing through the indigenous people’s territory, the Rama group became frightened when a dugout canoe approached them. In the canoe were several native hunters armed with bows and arrows. However instead of expressing hostility towards the city people, the hunters volunteered to help “guide them on their mission.” As astounding as this may sound, it was Doctor Limaco’s impression that their arrival had been heralded by the ETs via telepathic messages sent to the hunters. The indigenous people were reportedly given instructions to help the Mission Rama emissaries. One hunter in a supreme act of solidarity insisted that Dr. Limaco take his hunting bow as a peace offering. This prized possession was the instrument by which the hunter fed his family and Dr. Limaco recognized its importance as a gift. As the Rama contact workers approached Paititi, their spirits rose. The telepathic communications that they were receiving were getting stronger and clearer. At night around the campfire, they carried out Rama prescribed mental exercises. They reportedly experienced profoundly peaceful states that reassured them that their mission would be successful. They Arrive at Paititi The night before reaching Paititi, each member of the team had an out-of body experience. As described to me by Dr. Limaco, each was mentally taken on-board a large ET craft that was waiting for them some one day’s marching distance away. The next morning, they continued trudging through the jungle. Although exhausted, their spirits were high because they knew that they did not have much further to go. Finally, they arrived at Paititi. Hovering above a clearing in the jungle, they encountered a large ET craft. Everyone immediately recognized it from the out of body experience of the previous night. This time the Rama team physically went onboard via a blue tractor beam that transported them one by one into the belly of the hovering ship. The Planet Earth as a Spiritual Dynamo The ET group that hosted them is known as the “Great White Brotherhood.” (This designation unfortunately sounds like the one used by criminal gangs of white nationalists.) The “ETs” received this designation because on repeated encounters the beings of this group all wore white robes. The Rama people were informed by their non-human hosts how vitally important Rama’s mission was. The goal was reportedly awesome in scope and involved nothing less than the spiritual transformation of humanity. This achievement would presumably set the stage for open contact with spiritually and technologically advanced non-human civilizations. According to the “ETs”, this transformation was happening not only on Earth, but throughout the entire galaxy as well. As reported to the Rama missionaries, vast numbers of advanced ET civilizations were awaiting a spiritual leap forward on our planet. This supposedly would allow us to join them in a galactic civilization of technologically and ethnically advanced star systems. The Rama activists explained that the Earth was a “spiritual dynamo.” A massive expansion of human consciousness on Earth would provide a psychic energetic boost to the civilizations that were assisting us. In the process, they would be lifted to the next wrung of their spiritual evolutionary ladder. They were helping us, and our transformation would be helping them to achieve their destiny. Undeniably, critics of this narrative will point out that this all sounds like a New Age oriented Star Trek episode. The Rama activists however are real people. As documented by numerous media reports in Latin America, they have an established track record of co-creating with the non-human intelligences associated with UFOs what I call Human Initiated Contact Events (HICE). And they have been doing this since the 1970s. If this account is accurate, as I believe it is, then the story of Dr. Limaco and his companions serves as an inspiration for contact activists and UFO truth seekers alike. In my opinion, their astounding story should inspire people all over the world to actively engage the intelligences responsible for the flying saucer phenomenon. Who knows, perhaps in a generation or two, the courageous efforts described in this narrative will no longer be so unusual? It is conceivable that someday, dozens of contact teams all over the world might be replicating the astounding work of the contact network now called “Rahma.” Links to additional articles about Mission Rama The article linked below is a detailed description of the origins of Mission Rama, a spiritually based Peruvian network of volunteer contact workers. They reported experiencing direct face to face encounters with what they believed were friendly extraterrestrial beings. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/28/mission-rama-one-of-the-most-important-contact-networks-of-the-20th-century/ A description of how activists from CE-5 Initiative met with activists from the Peruvian network now called Rahma. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/the-north-and-south-american-contact-networks-meet/ United Airlines Captain Joe Vallejo’s description of Rama activists opening a dimensional portal at a California UFO contact site in 1994. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/xendra-inter-dimensional-portal-opened-at-rama-contact-site-called-shasta/ Long time Rahma activist Enrique Villanueva explains that UFO contact work is more than having a sighting or meeting friendly extraterrestrials. It is about the expansion of human consciousness. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/et-contact-and-the-expansion-of-human-consciousness/ |
2024.05.10 17:58 Contactunderground The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi.
| | Rama’s Mission to Paititi submitted by Contactunderground to Experiencers [link] [comments] Joseph Burkes MD 2018, edited 2023 https://preview.redd.it/kigvvn92gmzc1.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6517b98c9a386f2efed1070cf57d30c489c5c6ce The amazing story of Mission Rama dates to the 1970s. The first group of Rama contact workers had their initial encounters in Peru. Their experiences involved many sightings of what they described as “extraterrestrial craft” that were facilitated using a form of telepathic communication called automatic writing. The Mission Rama activists even reported having onboard encounters. Sixto Paz Wells and other Latin-American contactees have published books in Spanish describing their experiences. In my opinion, their narratives should be seriously studied by all contact and disclosure activists. Representatives of both the North and South American Contact Networks Meet in Los Angeles. In 1994 Fernando Limaco, a retired dental surgeon and experienced Rama leader drove down from the San Francisco Bay Area with several close supporters to meet with our Los Angeles based Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind Initiative (CE-5) team. A member of our group, Captain Joe Vallejo, was a United Airlines 747 pilot. He arranged for us to meet the Mission Rama representatives at his home located in the Simi Valley. Fernando’s talk was given entirely in Spanish with the help of simultaneous translation provided by his companions and Captain Vallejo. Having Joe there was extremely helpful because of his language skills and his excellent command of Latin American contactee literature. This combination of talents helped him translate some of the more advanced concepts of the Rama cosmology as presented by Dr. Limaco. Mission Rama Started in Peru in 1974 Our Los Angeles CE5 team was very eager to hear what the Mission Rama people were prepared to tell us. I had given each member of my group a copy of an article published in “UFO Library Magazine” by Yolanda Marcino, a past United States Rama President. This authoritative document, in a rather obscure publication with limited circulation, described the early Mission Rama extraterrestrial encounters that started in Peru in 1974. Those contacts involved the experiences of university student Sixto Paz Wells and a group of his young friends. They reportedly had repeated encounters in the desert region near Lima called Chilca. From Yolanda Marcino’s account, we also learned that Sixto and others had reportedly been transported via an inter-dimensional portal to an extraterrestrial base located on a moon of Jupiter. We know this satellite as Ganymede. Dr. Limaco spoke with authority as a seasoned Rama activist. That afternoon in the Joe Vallejo’s living room, we heard a spellbinding account of what in my opinion is an adventure demonstrating great courage and high ideals. Since 1993, I have followed the developments in Mission Rama. It now goes by the name Rahma. In Sanskrit, “Ra” signifies the heavens; “ma” means the Earth and the “h” in between the “Ra” and “ma”, stands for humanity. As a contact activist with 30 years of experience, in my judgment Rahma is still playing an important role in helping humanity build a cooperative relationship with flying saucer intelligences. Dr. Limaco and his companions explained that it was Mission Rama’s custom to promote the development of psychic ability through meditation and certain other special mental exercises. Over time, many people in their network have become skilled in the practice of automatic writing. Telepathically received information is deemed accurate when multiple automatic writers working separately obtain the identical or at least very similar messages. (This is like the practice of remote viewing in which multiple viewers are independently tasked with the same target.) An individual that consistently channels accurate messages is described by Rama people as being a “good antenna.” Rama’s Mission to Patiti Our contact team was composed of middle-class people with good paying jobs. Among our ranks were three physicians working for the Southern California Permanente Group. Other members included Dr. Dixie Sullivan working as a clinical psychologist and her friend Dotha Weybourne, married to a wealthy lawyer. In contrast, Dr. Limaco’s team was mostly composed of immigrants, some newly arrived. Even those that were professionals in their nations of origin could be severely challenged by a new language and culture. Some didn’t have papers to work in the US. I later learned from Dr. Limaco that he had assisted Rama activists who were having problems with the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Once in 1990, he even drove all the way to Salinas Valley to help a comrade file papers to avoid deportation. On the ride back to the Bay Area he had a remarkable sighting. It was late at night, and he reported hearing the word “Paititi” repeatedly in his mind. In a field nearby, he saw a disc shaped object hovering close to the ground. If I recall correctly, Dr. Limaco stated that when he first heard the word, he did not know that Paititi was a remote location deep in the Peruvian Andes rainforest. Later in 1990, via mental communications received by multiple Rama activists in different locations, it became known that a major encounter was going to take place. This time it would not occur in Chilca, the desert site south of Lima. Instead, the location was Paititi in the remote jungle situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains. According to Dr. Limaco, in 1990 there were no roads to Paititi. It was sparsely populated by indigenous people that had little contact with the rest of the country. The only way to get there was by foot and this meant trekking through densely forested jungle full of poisonous plants, insects, and snakes. Those chosen for the mission would have to cross rivers infested with alligators, some up to six feet long. Automatic Writing Revealed Who Was Selected for the Jungle Mission Via a series of telepathic communications, Rama people learned that six individuals for the perilous expedition would be selected by the alleged “ETs.” In Spanish. the Rama activists call them “los hermanos mayors” (older brothers). At a general meeting in Peru attended by over two hundred supporters, the question was asked, who in the audience would be willing to go on the mission to Paititi? Everyone in the crowd raised a hand to volunteer for the encounter. Later it became clear as the result of ongoing messages from the flying saucer intelligences, that if any of the six initially selected by the “extraterrestrials” could not participate, then there could be no substitutions. Only those specifically chosen by “los hermanos mayores” would be welcomed to journey on foot to the far distant jungle location. According to Dr. Limaco’s account, the Rama people carried rice and beans as their only food during their trek to Paititi. They prepared these provisions nightly in a large cast iron pot. They were city people and not skilled woodsmen accustomed to the hardships of the rainforest. These Rama contact workers were, however, empowered by an intense desire for further contact with what they imagined was a technologically and ethically advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Daily prayer and meditation provided them with both emotional support and spiritual sustenance. They believed that they were somehow being protected by an unseen intelligence that was profoundly spiritual and desired their mission to succeed. Battery Packs Were Mysteriously Drained Dr. Limaco told us that they carried a video camera to document their anticipated encounter. After several days of marching into the jungle, they checked the camera’s batteries. The packs had been fully charged prior to their setting out for Paititi. To their dismay, they found that all the batteries were dead. The Rama team buried the now useless heavy equipment under a tall tree. They hoped to retrieve it on their way back to civilization. The Hired Guide Warned Them of Danger During the first portion of their trek, a hired guide led them further and further into the rainforest. He was well-aware of their destination and the risks to their safety that the journey entailed. The team used machetes to cut a path for themselves. After several days of hacking their way through the jungle their guide gave them this warning. “I am not going on any further and neither are you! Because beyond this point the people out there eat people! The Rama activists were disappointed to hear this disturbing pronouncement. They discussed their options, and the consensus was they would go on without the guide. Some days after exhausting trail blazing, they reportedly were so exhausted that they failed to cook supper. At nightfall, they crowded together in their small tent that was their only shelter. Despite being hungry, sleep came quickly. One evening according to Dr. Limaco, they were so drained of strength that they threw themselves down on the sand adjacent to a river. Huddled together for warmth, they fell asleep. At daybreak, they were shocked to find themselves surrounded by poisonous snakes. They apparently had slithered up to the contact workers to keep warm. One might expect the vipers to bite their frightened human bedpartners, Instead the venomous creatures slowly moved away as the morning temperature rose. Rivers and streams provided the Rama group with freshwater for drinking and bathing. This vital resource, however, was also a source of danger. Alligators were abundant in the waters they had to cross. A Grim Decision Was Made Uncertain as to how long they could go on before someone sustained injury, they made a grim decision. If one or more were seriously wounded or became sick, the rest of the team would leave most of the supplies with the casualties. Those that could still go on, would do so, without the others. They promised one another that they would return to pick up the sick or wounded on the way back. Fortuitously, none sustained serious injury or became too ill to continue. A Surprise Peace Offering Another potential danger came from the indigenous peoples of the rainforest as mentioned above. These groups have their own languages and cultures. Historically they have had bad relations with the European influenced population of Peru. Encroachment on indigenous peoples’ hunting grounds by settlements of townspeople and forestry operation have resulted in mutual suspicion and even violent confrontations. One day while passing through the indigenous people’s territory, the Rama group became frightened when a dugout canoe approached them. In the canoe were several native hunters armed with bows and arrows. However instead of expressing hostility towards the city people, the hunters volunteered to help “guide them on their mission.” As astounding as this may sound, it was Doctor Limaco’s impression that their arrival had been heralded by the ETs via telepathic messages sent to the hunters. The indigenous people were reportedly given instructions to help the Mission Rama emissaries. One hunter in a supreme act of solidarity insisted that Dr. Limaco take his hunting bow as a peace offering. This prized possession was the instrument by which the hunter fed his family and Dr. Limaco recognized its importance as a gift. As the Rama contact workers approached Paititi, their spirits rose. The telepathic communications that they were receiving were getting stronger and clearer. At night around the campfire, they carried out Rama prescribed mental exercises. They reportedly experienced profoundly peaceful states that reassured them that their mission would be successful. They Arrive at Paititi The night before reaching Paititi, each member of the team had an out-of body experience. As described to me by Dr. Limaco, each was mentally taken on-board a large ET craft that was waiting for them some one day’s marching distance away. The next morning, they continued trudging through the jungle. Although exhausted, their spirits were high because they knew that they did not have much further to go. Finally, they arrived at Paititi. Hovering above a clearing in the jungle, they encountered a large ET craft. Everyone immediately recognized it from the out of body experience of the previous night. This time the Rama team physically went onboard via a blue tractor beam that transported them one by one into the belly of the hovering ship. The Planet Earth as a Spiritual Dynamo The ET group that hosted them is known as the “Great White Brotherhood.” (This designation unfortunately sounds like the one used by criminal gangs of white nationalists.) The “ETs” received this designation because on repeated encounters the beings of this group all wore white robes. The Rama people were informed by their non-human hosts how vitally important Rama’s mission was. The goal was reportedly awesome in scope and involved nothing less than the spiritual transformation of humanity. This achievement would presumably set the stage for open contact with spiritually and technologically advanced non-human civilizations. According to the “ETs”, this transformation was happening not only on Earth, but throughout the entire galaxy as well. As reported to the Rama missionaries, vast numbers of advanced ET civilizations were awaiting a spiritual leap forward on our planet. This supposedly would allow us to join them in a galactic civilization of technologically and ethnically advanced star systems. The Rama activists explained that the Earth was a “spiritual dynamo.” A massive expansion of human consciousness on Earth would provide a psychic energetic boost to the civilizations that were assisting us. In the process, they would be lifted to the next wrung of their spiritual evolutionary ladder. They were helping us, and our transformation would be helping them to achieve their destiny. Undeniably, critics of this narrative will point out that this all sounds like a New Age oriented Star Trek episode. The Rama activists however are real people. As documented by numerous media reports in Latin America, they have an established track record of co-creating with the non-human intelligences associated with UFOs what I call Human Initiated Contact Events (HICE). And they have been doing this since the 1970s. If this account is accurate, as I believe it is, then the story of Dr. Limaco and his companions serves as an inspiration for contact activists and UFO truth seekers alike. In my opinion, their astounding story should inspire people all over the world to actively engage the intelligences responsible for the flying saucer phenomenon. Who knows, perhaps in a generation or two, the courageous efforts described in this narrative will no longer be so unusual? It is conceivable that someday, dozens of contact teams all over the world might be replicating the astounding work of the contact network now called “Rahma.” Links to additional articles about Mission Rama The article linked below is a detailed description of the origins of Mission Rama, a spiritually based Peruvian network of volunteer contact workers. They reported experiencing direct face to face encounters with what they believed were friendly extraterrestrial beings. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/28/mission-rama-one-of-the-most-important-contact-networks-of-the-20th-century/ A description of how activists from CE-5 Initiative met with activists from the Peruvian network now called Rahma. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/the-north-and-south-american-contact-networks-meet/ United Airlines Captain Joe Vallejo’s description of Rama activists opening a dimensional portal at a California UFO contact site in 1994. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/xendra-inter-dimensional-portal-opened-at-rama-contact-site-called-shasta/ Long time Rahma activist Enrique Villanueva explains that UFO contact work is more than having a sighting or meeting friendly extraterrestrials. It is about the expansion of human consciousness. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/et-contact-and-the-expansion-of-human-consciousness/ |
2024.05.10 17:46 Contactunderground The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi.
| | Rama’s Mission to Paititi submitted by Contactunderground to ContactUnderground [link] [comments] Joseph Burkes MD 2018, edited 2023 https://preview.redd.it/2ev7ouvzdmzc1.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76a02b0829a3ee0f4ea1fe9e349704f1e2588b49 The amazing story of Mission Rama dates to the 1970s. The first group of Rama contact workers had their initial encounters in Peru. Their experiences involved many sightings of what they described as “extraterrestrial craft” that were facilitated using a form of telepathic communication called automatic writing. The Mission Rama activists even reported having onboard encounters. Sixto Paz Wells and other Latin-American contactees have published books in Spanish describing their experiences. In my opinion, their narratives should be seriously studied by all contact and disclosure activists. Representatives of both the North and South American Contact Networks Meet in Los Angeles. In 1994 Fernando Limaco, a retired dental surgeon and experienced Rama leader drove down from the San Francisco Bay Area with several close supporters to meet with our Los Angeles based Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind Initiative (CE-5) team. A member of our group, Captain Joe Vallejo, was a United Airlines 747 pilot. He arranged for us to meet the Mission Rama representatives at his home located in the Simi Valley. Fernando’s talk was given entirely in Spanish with the help of simultaneous translation provided by his companions and Captain Vallejo. Having Joe there was extremely helpful because of his language skills and his excellent command of Latin American contactee literature. This combination of talents helped him translate some of the more advanced concepts of the Rama cosmology as presented by Dr. Limaco. Mission Rama Started in Peru in 1974 Our Los Angeles CE5 team was very eager to hear what the Mission Rama people were prepared to tell us. I had given each member of my group a copy of an article published in “UFO Library Magazine” by Yolanda Marcino, a past United States Rama President. This authoritative document, in a rather obscure publication with limited circulation, described the early Mission Rama extraterrestrial encounters that started in Peru in 1974. Those contacts involved the experiences of university student Sixto Paz Wells and a group of his young friends. They reportedly had repeated encounters in the desert region near Lima called Chilca. From Yolanda Marcino’s account, we also learned that Sixto and others had reportedly been transported via an inter-dimensional portal to an extraterrestrial base located on a moon of Jupiter. We know this satellite as Ganymede. Dr. Limaco spoke with authority as a seasoned Rama activist. That afternoon in the Joe Vallejo’s living room, we heard a spellbinding account of what in my opinion is an adventure demonstrating great courage and high ideals. Since 1993, I have followed the developments in Mission Rama. It now goes by the name Rahma. In Sanskrit, “Ra” signifies the heavens; “ma” means the Earth and the “h” in between the “Ra” and “ma”, stands for humanity. As a contact activist with 30 years of experience, in my judgment Rahma is still playing an important role in helping humanity build a cooperative relationship with flying saucer intelligences. Dr. Limaco and his companions explained that it was Mission Rama’s custom to promote the development of psychic ability through meditation and certain other special mental exercises. Over time, many people in their network have become skilled in the practice of automatic writing. Telepathically received information is deemed accurate when multiple automatic writers working separately obtain the identical or at least very similar messages. (This is like the practice of remote viewing in which multiple viewers are independently tasked with the same target.) An individual that consistently channels accurate messages is described by Rama people as being a “good antenna.” Rama’s Mission to Patiti Our contact team was composed of middle-class people with good paying jobs. Among our ranks were three physicians working for the Southern California Permanente Group. Other members included Dr. Dixie Sullivan working as a clinical psychologist and her friend Dotha Weybourne, married to a wealthy lawyer. In contrast, Dr. Limaco’s team was mostly composed of immigrants, some newly arrived. Even those that were professionals in their nations of origin could be severely challenged by a new language and culture. Some didn’t have papers to work in the US. I later learned from Dr. Limaco that he had assisted Rama activists who were having problems with the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Once in 1990, he even drove all the way to Salinas Valley to help a comrade file papers to avoid deportation. On the ride back to the Bay Area he had a remarkable sighting. It was late at night, and he reported hearing the word “Paititi” repeatedly in his mind. In a field nearby, he saw a disc shaped object hovering close to the ground. If I recall correctly, Dr. Limaco stated that when he first heard the word, he did not know that Paititi was a remote location deep in the Peruvian Andes rainforest. Later in 1990, via mental communications received by multiple Rama activists in different locations, it became known that a major encounter was going to take place. This time it would not occur in Chilca, the desert site south of Lima. Instead, the location was Paititi in the remote jungle situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains. According to Dr. Limaco, in 1990 there were no roads to Paititi. It was sparsely populated by indigenous people that had little contact with the rest of the country. The only way to get there was by foot and this meant trekking through densely forested jungle full of poisonous plants, insects, and snakes. Those chosen for the mission would have to cross rivers infested with alligators, some up to six feet long. Automatic Writing Revealed Who Was Selected for the Jungle Mission Via a series of telepathic communications, Rama people learned that six individuals for the perilous expedition would be selected by the alleged “ETs.” In Spanish. the Rama activists call them “los hermanos mayors” (older brothers). At a general meeting in Peru attended by over two hundred supporters, the question was asked, who in the audience would be willing to go on the mission to Paititi? Everyone in the crowd raised a hand to volunteer for the encounter. Later it became clear as the result of ongoing messages from the flying saucer intelligences, that if any of the six initially selected by the “extraterrestrials” could not participate, then there could be no substitutions. Only those specifically chosen by “los hermanos mayores” would be welcomed to journey on foot to the far distant jungle location. According to Dr. Limaco’s account, the Rama people carried rice and beans as their only food during their trek to Paititi. They prepared these provisions nightly in a large cast iron pot. They were city people and not skilled woodsmen accustomed to the hardships of the rainforest. These Rama contact workers were, however, empowered by an intense desire for further contact with what they imagined was a technologically and ethically advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Daily prayer and meditation provided them with both emotional support and spiritual sustenance. They believed that they were somehow being protected by an unseen intelligence that was profoundly spiritual and desired their mission to succeed. Battery Packs Were Mysteriously Drained Dr. Limaco told us that they carried a video camera to document their anticipated encounter. After several days of marching into the jungle, they checked the camera’s batteries. The packs had been fully charged prior to their setting out for Paititi. To their dismay, they found that all the batteries were dead. The Rama team buried the now useless heavy equipment under a tall tree. They hoped to retrieve it on their way back to civilization. The Hired Guide Warned Them of Danger During the first portion of their trek, a hired guide led them further and further into the rainforest. He was well-aware of their destination and the risks to their safety that the journey entailed. The team used machetes to cut a path for themselves. After several days of hacking their way through the jungle their guide gave them this warning. “I am not going on any further and neither are you! Because beyond this point the people out there eat people! The Rama activists were disappointed to hear this disturbing pronouncement. They discussed their options, and the consensus was they would go on without the guide. Some days after exhausting trail blazing, they reportedly were so exhausted that they failed to cook supper. At nightfall, they crowded together in their small tent that was their only shelter. Despite being hungry, sleep came quickly. One evening according to Dr. Limaco, they were so drained of strength that they threw themselves down on the sand adjacent to a river. Huddled together for warmth, they fell asleep. At daybreak, they were shocked to find themselves surrounded by poisonous snakes. They apparently had slithered up to the contact workers to keep warm. One might expect the vipers to bite their frightened human bedpartners, Instead the venomous creatures slowly moved away as the morning temperature rose. Rivers and streams provided the Rama group with freshwater for drinking and bathing. This vital resource, however, was also a source of danger. Alligators were abundant in the waters they had to cross. A Grim Decision Was Made Uncertain as to how long they could go on before someone sustained injury, they made a grim decision. If one or more were seriously wounded or became sick, the rest of the team would leave most of the supplies with the casualties. Those that could still go on, would do so, without the others. They promised one another that they would return to pick up the sick or wounded on the way back. Fortuitously, none sustained serious injury or became too ill to continue. A Surprise Peace Offering Another potential danger came from the indigenous peoples of the rainforest as mentioned above. These groups have their own languages and cultures. Historically they have had bad relations with the European influenced population of Peru. Encroachment on indigenous peoples’ hunting grounds by settlements of townspeople and forestry operation have resulted in mutual suspicion and even violent confrontations. One day while passing through the indigenous people’s territory, the Rama group became frightened when a dugout canoe approached them. In the canoe were several native hunters armed with bows and arrows. However instead of expressing hostility towards the city people, the hunters volunteered to help “guide them on their mission.” As astounding as this may sound, it was Doctor Limaco’s impression that their arrival had been heralded by the ETs via telepathic messages sent to the hunters. The indigenous people were reportedly given instructions to help the Mission Rama emissaries. One hunter in a supreme act of solidarity insisted that Dr. Limaco take his hunting bow as a peace offering. This prized possession was the instrument by which the hunter fed his family and Dr. Limaco recognized its importance as a gift. As the Rama contact workers approached Paititi, their spirits rose. The telepathic communications that they were receiving were getting stronger and clearer. At night around the campfire, they carried out Rama prescribed mental exercises. They reportedly experienced profoundly peaceful states that reassured them that their mission would be successful. They Arrive at Paititi The night before reaching Paititi, each member of the team had an out-of body experience. As described to me by Dr. Limaco, each was mentally taken on-board a large ET craft that was waiting for them some one day’s marching distance away. The next morning, they continued trudging through the jungle. Although exhausted, their spirits were high because they knew that they did not have much further to go. Finally, they arrived at Paititi. Hovering above a clearing in the jungle, they encountered a large ET craft. Everyone immediately recognized it from the out of body experience of the previous night. This time the Rama team physically went onboard via a blue tractor beam that transported them one by one into the belly of the hovering ship. The Planet Earth as a Spiritual Dynamo The ET group that hosted them is known as the “Great White Brotherhood.” (This designation unfortunately sounds like the one used by criminal gangs of white nationalists.) The “ETs” received this designation because on repeated encounters the beings of this group all wore white robes. The Rama people were informed by their non-human hosts how vitally important Rama’s mission was. The goal was reportedly awesome in scope and involved nothing less than the spiritual transformation of humanity. This achievement would presumably set the stage for open contact with spiritually and technologically advanced non-human civilizations. According to the “ETs”, this transformation was happening not only on Earth, but throughout the entire galaxy as well. As reported to the Rama missionaries, vast numbers of advanced ET civilizations were awaiting a spiritual leap forward on our planet. This supposedly would allow us to join them in a galactic civilization of technologically and ethnically advanced star systems. The Rama activists explained that the Earth was a “spiritual dynamo.” A massive expansion of human consciousness on Earth would provide a psychic energetic boost to the civilizations that were assisting us. In the process, they would be lifted to the next wrung of their spiritual evolutionary ladder. They were helping us, and our transformation would be helping them to achieve their destiny. Undeniably, critics of this narrative will point out that this all sounds like a New Age oriented Star Trek episode. The Rama activists however are real people. As documented by numerous media reports in Latin America, they have an established track record of co-creating with the non-human intelligences associated with UFOs what I call Human Initiated Contact Events (HICE). And they have been doing this since the 1970s. If this account is accurate, as I believe it is, then the story of Dr. Limaco and his companions serves as an inspiration for contact activists and UFO truth seekers alike. In my opinion, their astounding story should inspire people all over the world to actively engage the intelligences responsible for the flying saucer phenomenon. Who knows, perhaps in a generation or two, the courageous efforts described in this narrative will no longer be so unusual? It is conceivable that someday, dozens of contact teams all over the world might be replicating the astounding work of the contact network now called “Rahma.” Links to additional articles about Mission Rama The article linked below is a detailed description of the origins of Mission Rama, a spiritually based Peruvian network of volunteer contact workers. They reported experiencing direct face to face encounters with what they believed were friendly extraterrestrial beings. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/28/mission-rama-one-of-the-most-important-contact-networks-of-the-20th-century/ A description of how activists from CE-5 Initiative met with activists from the Peruvian network now called Rahma. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/the-north-and-south-american-contact-networks-meet/ Long time Rama activist retired dental surgeon Fernando Limaco describes how he and four other volunteer contact workers marched into the Peruvian rainforest to rendezvous with friendly ETs in a remote region called Paititi. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/21/ramas-mission-to-paititi/ United Airlines Captain Joe Vallejo’s description of Rama activists opening a dimensional portal at a California UFO contact site in 1994. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/xendra-inter-dimensional-portal-opened-at-rama-contact-site-called-shasta/ Long time Rahma activist Enrique Villanueva explains that UFO contact work is more than having a sighting or meeting friendly extraterrestrials. It is about the expansion of human consciousness. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/et-contact-and-the-expansion-of-human-consciousness/ |
2024.05.10 17:44 Contactunderground The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi.
| | Rama’s Mission to Paititi submitted by Contactunderground to CE5 [link] [comments] Joseph Burkes MD 2018, edited 2023 https://preview.redd.it/lyhs9gwndmzc1.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09f89bed4f0be2d04d4625eff9aa42d065715707 The amazing story of Mission Rama dates to the 1970s. The first group of Rama contact workers had their initial encounters in Peru. Their experiences involved many sightings of what they described as “extraterrestrial craft” that were facilitated using a form of telepathic communication called automatic writing. The Mission Rama activists even reported having onboard encounters. Sixto Paz Wells and other Latin-American contactees have published books in Spanish describing their experiences. In my opinion, their narratives should be seriously studied by all contact and disclosure activists. Representatives of both the North and South American Contact Networks Meet in Los Angeles. In 1994 Fernando Limaco, a retired dental surgeon and experienced Rama leader drove down from the San Francisco Bay Area with several close supporters to meet with our Los Angeles based Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind Initiative (CE-5) team. A member of our group, Captain Joe Vallejo, was a United Airlines 747 pilot. He arranged for us to meet the Mission Rama representatives at his home located in the Simi Valley. Fernando’s talk was given entirely in Spanish with the help of simultaneous translation provided by his companions and Captain Vallejo. Having Joe there was extremely helpful because of his language skills and his excellent command of Latin American contactee literature. This combination of talents helped him translate some of the more advanced concepts of the Rama cosmology as presented by Dr. Limaco. Mission Rama Started in Peru in 1974 Our Los Angeles CE5 team was very eager to hear what the Mission Rama people were prepared to tell us. I had given each member of my group a copy of an article published in “UFO Library Magazine” by Yolanda Marcino, a past United States Rama President. This authoritative document, in a rather obscure publication with limited circulation, described the early Mission Rama extraterrestrial encounters that started in Peru in 1974. Those contacts involved the experiences of university student Sixto Paz Wells and a group of his young friends. They reportedly had repeated encounters in the desert region near Lima called Chilca. From Yolanda Marcino’s account, we also learned that Sixto and others had reportedly been transported via an inter-dimensional portal to an extraterrestrial base located on a moon of Jupiter. We know this satellite as Ganymede. Dr. Limaco spoke with authority as a seasoned Rama activist. That afternoon in the Joe Vallejo’s living room, we heard a spellbinding account of what in my opinion is an adventure demonstrating great courage and high ideals. Since 1993, I have followed the developments in Mission Rama. It now goes by the name Rahma. In Sanskrit, “Ra” signifies the heavens; “ma” means the Earth and the “h” in between the “Ra” and “ma”, stands for humanity. As a contact activist with 30 years of experience, in my judgment Rahma is still playing an important role in helping humanity build a cooperative relationship with flying saucer intelligences. Dr. Limaco and his companions explained that it was Mission Rama’s custom to promote the development of psychic ability through meditation and certain other special mental exercises. Over time, many people in their network have become skilled in the practice of automatic writing. Telepathically received information is deemed accurate when multiple automatic writers working separately obtain the identical or at least very similar messages. (This is like the practice of remote viewing in which multiple viewers are independently tasked with the same target.) An individual that consistently channels accurate messages is described by Rama people as being a “good antenna.” Rama’s Mission to Patiti Our contact team was composed of middle-class people with good paying jobs. Among our ranks were three physicians working for the Southern California Permanente Group. Other members included Dr. Dixie Sullivan working as a clinical psychologist and her friend Dotha Weybourne, married to a wealthy lawyer. In contrast, Dr. Limaco’s team was mostly composed of immigrants, some newly arrived. Even those that were professionals in their nations of origin could be severely challenged by a new language and culture. Some didn’t have papers to work in the US. I later learned from Dr. Limaco that he had assisted Rama activists who were having problems with the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Once in 1990, he even drove all the way to Salinas Valley to help a comrade file papers to avoid deportation. On the ride back to the Bay Area he had a remarkable sighting. It was late at night, and he reported hearing the word “Paititi” repeatedly in his mind. In a field nearby, he saw a disc shaped object hovering close to the ground. If I recall correctly, Dr. Limaco stated that when he first heard the word, he did not know that Paititi was a remote location deep in the Peruvian Andes rainforest. Later in 1990, via mental communications received by multiple Rama activists in different locations, it became known that a major encounter was going to take place. This time it would not occur in Chilca, the desert site south of Lima. Instead, the location was Paititi in the remote jungle situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains. According to Dr. Limaco, in 1990 there were no roads to Paititi. It was sparsely populated by indigenous people that had little contact with the rest of the country. The only way to get there was by foot and this meant trekking through densely forested jungle full of poisonous plants, insects, and snakes. Those chosen for the mission would have to cross rivers infested with alligators, some up to six feet long. Automatic Writing Revealed Who Was Selected for the Jungle Mission Via a series of telepathic communications, Rama people learned that six individuals for the perilous expedition would be selected by the alleged “ETs.” In Spanish. the Rama activists call them “los hermanos mayors” (older brothers). At a general meeting in Peru attended by over two hundred supporters, the question was asked, who in the audience would be willing to go on the mission to Paititi? Everyone in the crowd raised a hand to volunteer for the encounter. Later it became clear as the result of ongoing messages from the flying saucer intelligences, that if any of the six initially selected by the “extraterrestrials” could not participate, then there could be no substitutions. Only those specifically chosen by “los hermanos mayores” would be welcomed to journey on foot to the far distant jungle location. According to Dr. Limaco’s account, the Rama people carried rice and beans as their only food during their trek to Paititi. They prepared these provisions nightly in a large cast iron pot. They were city people and not skilled woodsmen accustomed to the hardships of the rainforest. These Rama contact workers were, however, empowered by an intense desire for further contact with what they imagined was a technologically and ethically advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Daily prayer and meditation provided them with both emotional support and spiritual sustenance. They believed that they were somehow being protected by an unseen intelligence that was profoundly spiritual and desired their mission to succeed. Battery Packs Were Mysteriously Drained Dr. Limaco told us that they carried a video camera to document their anticipated encounter. After several days of marching into the jungle, they checked the camera’s batteries. The packs had been fully charged prior to their setting out for Paititi. To their dismay, they found that all the batteries were dead. The Rama team buried the now useless heavy equipment under a tall tree. They hoped to retrieve it on their way back to civilization. The Hired Guide Warned Them of Danger During the first portion of their trek, a hired guide led them further and further into the rainforest. He was well-aware of their destination and the risks to their safety that the journey entailed. The team used machetes to cut a path for themselves. After several days of hacking their way through the jungle their guide gave them this warning. “I am not going on any further and neither are you! Because beyond this point the people out there eat people! The Rama activists were disappointed to hear this disturbing pronouncement. They discussed their options, and the consensus was they would go on without the guide. Some days after exhausting trail blazing, they reportedly were so exhausted that they failed to cook supper. At nightfall, they crowded together in their small tent that was their only shelter. Despite being hungry, sleep came quickly. One evening according to Dr. Limaco, they were so drained of strength that they threw themselves down on the sand adjacent to a river. Huddled together for warmth, they fell asleep. At daybreak, they were shocked to find themselves surrounded by poisonous snakes. They apparently had slithered up to the contact workers to keep warm. One might expect the vipers to bite their frightened human bedpartners, Instead the venomous creatures slowly moved away as the morning temperature rose. Rivers and streams provided the Rama group with freshwater for drinking and bathing. This vital resource, however, was also a source of danger. Alligators were abundant in the waters they had to cross. A Grim Decision Was Made Uncertain as to how long they could go on before someone sustained injury, they made a grim decision. If one or more were seriously wounded or became sick, the rest of the team would leave most of the supplies with the casualties. Those that could still go on, would do so, without the others. They promised one another that they would return to pick up the sick or wounded on the way back. Fortuitously, none sustained serious injury or became too ill to continue. A Surprise Peace Offering Another potential danger came from the indigenous peoples of the rainforest as mentioned above. These groups have their own languages and cultures. Historically they have had bad relations with the European influenced population of Peru. Encroachment on indigenous peoples’ hunting grounds by settlements of townspeople and forestry operation have resulted in mutual suspicion and even violent confrontations. One day while passing through the indigenous people’s territory, the Rama group became frightened when a dugout canoe approached them. In the canoe were several native hunters armed with bows and arrows. However instead of expressing hostility towards the city people, the hunters volunteered to help “guide them on their mission.” As astounding as this may sound, it was Doctor Limaco’s impression that their arrival had been heralded by the ETs via telepathic messages sent to the hunters. The indigenous people were reportedly given instructions to help the Mission Rama emissaries. One hunter in a supreme act of solidarity insisted that Dr. Limaco take his hunting bow as a peace offering. This prized possession was the instrument by which the hunter fed his family and Dr. Limaco recognized its importance as a gift. As the Rama contact workers approached Paititi, their spirits rose. The telepathic communications that they were receiving were getting stronger and clearer. At night around the campfire, they carried out Rama prescribed mental exercises. They reportedly experienced profoundly peaceful states that reassured them that their mission would be successful. They Arrive at Paititi The night before reaching Paititi, each member of the team had an out-of body experience. As described to me by Dr. Limaco, each was mentally taken on-board a large ET craft that was waiting for them some one day’s marching distance away. The next morning, they continued trudging through the jungle. Although exhausted, their spirits were high because they knew that they did not have much further to go. Finally, they arrived at Paititi. Hovering above a clearing in the jungle, they encountered a large ET craft. Everyone immediately recognized it from the out of body experience of the previous night. This time the Rama team physically went onboard via a blue tractor beam that transported them one by one into the belly of the hovering ship. The Planet Earth as a Spiritual Dynamo The ET group that hosted them is known as the “Great White Brotherhood.” (This designation unfortunately sounds like the one used by criminal gangs of white nationalists.) The “ETs” received this designation because on repeated encounters the beings of this group all wore white robes. The Rama people were informed by their non-human hosts how vitally important Rama’s mission was. The goal was reportedly awesome in scope and involved nothing less than the spiritual transformation of humanity. This achievement would presumably set the stage for open contact with spiritually and technologically advanced non-human civilizations. According to the “ETs”, this transformation was happening not only on Earth, but throughout the entire galaxy as well. As reported to the Rama missionaries, vast numbers of advanced ET civilizations were awaiting a spiritual leap forward on our planet. This supposedly would allow us to join them in a galactic civilization of technologically and ethnically advanced star systems. The Rama activists explained that the Earth was a “spiritual dynamo.” A massive expansion of human consciousness on Earth would provide a psychic energetic boost to the civilizations that were assisting us. In the process, they would be lifted to the next wrung of their spiritual evolutionary ladder. They were helping us, and our transformation would be helping them to achieve their destiny. Undeniably, critics of this narrative will point out that this all sounds like a New Age oriented Star Trek episode. The Rama activists however are real people. As documented by numerous media reports in Latin America, they have an established track record of co-creating with the non-human intelligences associated with UFOs what I call Human Initiated Contact Events (HICE). And they have been doing this since the 1970s. If this account is accurate, as I believe it is, then the story of Dr. Limaco and his companions serves as an inspiration for contact activists and UFO truth seekers alike. In my opinion, their astounding story should inspire people all over the world to actively engage the intelligences responsible for the flying saucer phenomenon. Who knows, perhaps in a generation or two, the courageous efforts described in this narrative will no longer be so unusual? It is conceivable that someday, dozens of contact teams all over the world might be replicating the astounding work of the contact network now called “Rahma.” Links to additional articles about Mission Rama The article linked below is a detailed description of the origins of Mission Rama, a spiritually based Peruvian network of volunteer contact workers. They reported experiencing direct face to face encounters with what they believed were friendly extraterrestrial beings. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/28/mission-rama-one-of-the-most-important-contact-networks-of-the-20th-century/ A description of how activists from CE-5 Initiative met with activists from the Peruvian network now called Rahma. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/the-north-and-south-american-contact-networks-meet/ Long time Rama activist retired dental surgeon Fernando Limaco describes how he and four other volunteer contact workers marched into the Peruvian rainforest to rendezvous with friendly ETs in a remote region called Paititi. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/21/ramas-mission-to-paititi/ United Airlines Captain Joe Vallejo’s description of Rama activists opening a dimensional portal at a California UFO contact site in 1994. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/xendra-inter-dimensional-portal-opened-at-rama-contact-site-called-shasta/ Long time Rahma activist Enrique Villanueva explains that UFO contact work is more than having a sighting or meeting friendly extraterrestrials. It is about the expansion of human consciousness. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/et-contact-and-the-expansion-of-human-consciousness/ |
2024.05.10 17:41 Contactunderground The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi.
| | Rama’s Mission to Paititi submitted by Contactunderground to AnomalousEvidence [link] [comments] Joseph Burkes MD 2018, edited 2023 https://preview.redd.it/a2vmzl36dmzc1.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13672142cb851edd7ef286aca659d4c9bcab683c The amazing story of Mission Rama dates to the 1970s. The first group of Rama contact workers had their initial encounters in Peru. Their experiences involved many sightings of what they described as “extraterrestrial craft” that were facilitated using a form of telepathic communication called automatic writing. The Mission Rama activists even reported having onboard encounters. Sixto Paz Wells and other Latin-American contactees have published books in Spanish describing their experiences. In my opinion, their narratives should be seriously studied by all contact and disclosure activists. Representatives of both the North and South American Contact Networks Meet in Los Angeles. In 1994 Fernando Limaco, a retired dental surgeon and experienced Rama leader drove down from the San Francisco Bay Area with several close supporters to meet with our Los Angeles based Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind Initiative (CE-5) team. A member of our group, Captain Joe Vallejo, was a United Airlines 747 pilot. He arranged for us to meet the Mission Rama representatives at his home located in the Simi Valley. Fernando’s talk was given entirely in Spanish with the help of simultaneous translation provided by his companions and Captain Vallejo. Having Joe there was extremely helpful because of his language skills and his excellent command of Latin American contactee literature. This combination of talents helped him translate some of the more advanced concepts of the Rama cosmology as presented by Dr. Limaco. Mission Rama Started in Peru in 1974 Our Los Angeles CE5 team was very eager to hear what the Mission Rama people were prepared to tell us. I had given each member of my group a copy of an article published in “UFO Library Magazine” by Yolanda Marcino, a past United States Rama President. This authoritative document, in a rather obscure publication with limited circulation, described the early Mission Rama extraterrestrial encounters that started in Peru in 1974. Those contacts involved the experiences of university student Sixto Paz Wells and a group of his young friends. They reportedly had repeated encounters in the desert region near Lima called Chilca. From Yolanda Marcino’s account, we also learned that Sixto and others had reportedly been transported via an inter-dimensional portal to an extraterrestrial base located on a moon of Jupiter. We know this satellite as Ganymede. Dr. Limaco spoke with authority as a seasoned Rama activist. That afternoon in the Joe Vallejo’s living room, we heard a spellbinding account of what in my opinion is an adventure demonstrating great courage and high ideals. Since 1993, I have followed the developments in Mission Rama. It now goes by the name Rahma. In Sanskrit, “Ra” signifies the heavens; “ma” means the Earth and the “h” in between the “Ra” and “ma”, stands for humanity. As a contact activist with 30 years of experience, in my judgment Rahma is still playing an important role in helping humanity build a cooperative relationship with flying saucer intelligences. Dr. Limaco and his companions explained that it was Mission Rama’s custom to promote the development of psychic ability through meditation and certain other special mental exercises. Over time, many people in their network have become skilled in the practice of automatic writing. Telepathically received information is deemed accurate when multiple automatic writers working separately obtain the identical or at least very similar messages. (This is like the practice of remote viewing in which multiple viewers are independently tasked with the same target.) An individual that consistently channels accurate messages is described by Rama people as being a “good antenna.” Rama’s Mission to Patiti Our contact team was composed of middle-class people with good paying jobs. Among our ranks were three physicians working for the Southern California Permanente Group. Other members included Dr. Dixie Sullivan working as a clinical psychologist and her friend Dotha Weybourne, married to a wealthy lawyer. In contrast, Dr. Limaco’s team was mostly composed of immigrants, some newly arrived. Even those that were professionals in their nations of origin could be severely challenged by a new language and culture. Some didn’t have papers to work in the US. I later learned from Dr. Limaco that he had assisted Rama activists who were having problems with the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Once in 1990, he even drove all the way to Salinas Valley to help a comrade file papers to avoid deportation. On the ride back to the Bay Area he had a remarkable sighting. It was late at night, and he reported hearing the word “Paititi” repeatedly in his mind. In a field nearby, he saw a disc shaped object hovering close to the ground. If I recall correctly, Dr. Limaco stated that when he first heard the word, he did not know that Paititi was a remote location deep in the Peruvian Andes rainforest. Later in 1990, via mental communications received by multiple Rama activists in different locations, it became known that a major encounter was going to take place. This time it would not occur in Chilca, the desert site south of Lima. Instead, the location was Paititi in the remote jungle situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains. According to Dr. Limaco, in 1990 there were no roads to Paititi. It was sparsely populated by indigenous people that had little contact with the rest of the country. The only way to get there was by foot and this meant trekking through densely forested jungle full of poisonous plants, insects, and snakes. Those chosen for the mission would have to cross rivers infested with alligators, some up to six feet long. Automatic Writing Revealed Who Was Selected for the Jungle Mission Via a series of telepathic communications, Rama people learned that six individuals for the perilous expedition would be selected by the alleged “ETs.” In Spanish. the Rama activists call them “los hermanos mayors” (older brothers). At a general meeting in Peru attended by over two hundred supporters, the question was asked, who in the audience would be willing to go on the mission to Paititi? Everyone in the crowd raised a hand to volunteer for the encounter. Later it became clear as the result of ongoing messages from the flying saucer intelligences, that if any of the six initially selected by the “extraterrestrials” could not participate, then there could be no substitutions. Only those specifically chosen by “los hermanos mayores” would be welcomed to journey on foot to the far distant jungle location. According to Dr. Limaco’s account, the Rama people carried rice and beans as their only food during their trek to Paititi. They prepared these provisions nightly in a large cast iron pot. They were city people and not skilled woodsmen accustomed to the hardships of the rainforest. These Rama contact workers were, however, empowered by an intense desire for further contact with what they imagined was a technologically and ethically advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Daily prayer and meditation provided them with both emotional support and spiritual sustenance. They believed that they were somehow being protected by an unseen intelligence that was profoundly spiritual and desired their mission to succeed. Battery Packs Were Mysteriously Drained Dr. Limaco told us that they carried a video camera to document their anticipated encounter. After several days of marching into the jungle, they checked the camera’s batteries. The packs had been fully charged prior to their setting out for Paititi. To their dismay, they found that all the batteries were dead. The Rama team buried the now useless heavy equipment under a tall tree. They hoped to retrieve it on their way back to civilization. The Hired Guide Warned Them of Danger During the first portion of their trek, a hired guide led them further and further into the rainforest. He was well-aware of their destination and the risks to their safety that the journey entailed. The team used machetes to cut a path for themselves. After several days of hacking their way through the jungle their guide gave them this warning. “I am not going on any further and neither are you! Because beyond this point the people out there eat people! The Rama activists were disappointed to hear this disturbing pronouncement. They discussed their options, and the consensus was they would go on without the guide. Some days after exhausting trail blazing, they reportedly were so exhausted that they failed to cook supper. At nightfall, they crowded together in their small tent that was their only shelter. Despite being hungry, sleep came quickly. One evening according to Dr. Limaco, they were so drained of strength that they threw themselves down on the sand adjacent to a river. Huddled together for warmth, they fell asleep. At daybreak, they were shocked to find themselves surrounded by poisonous snakes. They apparently had slithered up to the contact workers to keep warm. One might expect the vipers to bite their frightened human bedpartners, Instead the venomous creatures slowly moved away as the morning temperature rose. Rivers and streams provided the Rama group with freshwater for drinking and bathing. This vital resource, however, was also a source of danger. Alligators were abundant in the waters they had to cross. A Grim Decision Was Made Uncertain as to how long they could go on before someone sustained injury, they made a grim decision. If one or more were seriously wounded or became sick, the rest of the team would leave most of the supplies with the casualties. Those that could still go on, would do so, without the others. They promised one another that they would return to pick up the sick or wounded on the way back. Fortuitously, none sustained serious injury or became too ill to continue. A Surprise Peace Offering Another potential danger came from the indigenous peoples of the rainforest as mentioned above. These groups have their own languages and cultures. Historically they have had bad relations with the European influenced population of Peru. Encroachment on indigenous peoples’ hunting grounds by settlements of townspeople and forestry operation have resulted in mutual suspicion and even violent confrontations. One day while passing through the indigenous people’s territory, the Rama group became frightened when a dugout canoe approached them. In the canoe were several native hunters armed with bows and arrows. However instead of expressing hostility towards the city people, the hunters volunteered to help “guide them on their mission.” As astounding as this may sound, it was Doctor Limaco’s impression that their arrival had been heralded by the ETs via telepathic messages sent to the hunters. The indigenous people were reportedly given instructions to help the Mission Rama emissaries. One hunter in a supreme act of solidarity insisted that Dr. Limaco take his hunting bow as a peace offering. This prized possession was the instrument by which the hunter fed his family and Dr. Limaco recognized its importance as a gift. As the Rama contact workers approached Paititi, their spirits rose. The telepathic communications that they were receiving were getting stronger and clearer. At night around the campfire, they carried out Rama prescribed mental exercises. They reportedly experienced profoundly peaceful states that reassured them that their mission would be successful. They Arrive at Paititi The night before reaching Paititi, each member of the team had an out-of body experience. As described to me by Dr. Limaco, each was mentally taken on-board a large ET craft that was waiting for them some one day’s marching distance away. The next morning, they continued trudging through the jungle. Although exhausted, their spirits were high because they knew that they did not have much further to go. Finally, they arrived at Paititi. Hovering above a clearing in the jungle, they encountered a large ET craft. Everyone immediately recognized it from the out of body experience of the previous night. This time the Rama team physically went onboard via a blue tractor beam that transported them one by one into the belly of the hovering ship. The Planet Earth as a Spiritual Dynamo The ET group that hosted them is known as the “Great White Brotherhood.” (This designation unfortunately sounds like the one used by criminal gangs of white nationalists.) The “ETs” received this designation because on repeated encounters the beings of this group all wore white robes. The Rama people were informed by their non-human hosts how vitally important Rama’s mission was. The goal was reportedly awesome in scope and involved nothing less than the spiritual transformation of humanity. This achievement would presumably set the stage for open contact with spiritually and technologically advanced non-human civilizations. According to the “ETs”, this transformation was happening not only on Earth, but throughout the entire galaxy as well. As reported to the Rama missionaries, vast numbers of advanced ET civilizations were awaiting a spiritual leap forward on our planet. This supposedly would allow us to join them in a galactic civilization of technologically and ethnically advanced star systems. The Rama activists explained that the Earth was a “spiritual dynamo.” A massive expansion of human consciousness on Earth would provide a psychic energetic boost to the civilizations that were assisting us. In the process, they would be lifted to the next wrung of their spiritual evolutionary ladder. They were helping us, and our transformation would be helping them to achieve their destiny. Undeniably, critics of this narrative will point out that this all sounds like a New Age oriented Star Trek episode. The Rama activists however are real people. As documented by numerous media reports in Latin America, they have an established track record of co-creating with the non-human intelligences associated with UFOs what I call Human Initiated Contact Events (HICE). And they have been doing this since the 1970s. If this account is accurate, as I believe it is, then the story of Dr. Limaco and his companions serves as an inspiration for contact activists and UFO truth seekers alike. In my opinion, their astounding story should inspire people all over the world to actively engage the intelligences responsible for the flying saucer phenomenon. Who knows, perhaps in a generation or two, the courageous efforts described in this narrative will no longer be so unusual? It is conceivable that someday, dozens of contact teams all over the world might be replicating the astounding work of the contact network now called “Rahma.” Links to additional articles about Mission Rama The article linked below is a detailed description of the origins of Mission Rama, a spiritually based Peruvian network of volunteer contact workers. They reported experiencing direct face to face encounters with what they believed were friendly extraterrestrial beings. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/28/mission-rama-one-of-the-most-important-contact-networks-of-the-20th-century/ A description of how activists from CE-5 Initiative met with activists from the Peruvian network now called Rahma. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/the-north-and-south-american-contact-networks-meet/ Long time Rama activist retired dental surgeon Fernando Limaco describes how he and four other volunteer contact workers marched into the Peruvian rainforest to rendezvous with friendly ETs in a remote region called Paititi. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/21/ramas-mission-to-paititi/ United Airlines Captain Joe Vallejo’s description of Rama activists opening a dimensional portal at a California UFO contact site in 1994. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/xendra-inter-dimensional-portal-opened-at-rama-contact-site-called-shasta/ Long time Rahma activist Enrique Villanueva explains that UFO contact work is more than having a sighting or meeting friendly extraterrestrials. It is about the expansion of human consciousness. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/et-contact-and-the-expansion-of-human-consciousness/ |
2024.05.10 17:38 Contactunderground The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi.
 | The Peruvian Contact Network known as Rama reported having an on-board encounter deep in a remote rainforest locale called Paititi. submitted by Contactunderground to aliens [link] [comments] Rama’s Mission to Paititi Joseph Burkes MD 2018, edited 2023 https://preview.redd.it/ccly28nbcmzc1.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13c9f6c538f8386051e6e8c12cf88977b717916e The amazing story of Mission Rama dates to the 1970s. The first group of Rama contact workers had their initial encounters in Peru. Their experiences involved many sightings of what they described as “extraterrestrial craft” that were facilitated using a form of telepathic communication called automatic writing. The Mission Rama activists even reported having onboard encounters. Sixto Paz Wells and other Latin-American contactees have published books in Spanish describing their experiences. In my opinion, their narratives should be seriously studied by all contact and disclosure activists. Representatives of both the North and South American Contact Networks Meet in Los Angeles. In 1994 Fernando Limaco, a retired dental surgeon and experienced Rama leader drove down from the San Francisco Bay Area with several close supporters to meet with our Los Angeles based Close Encounters of the Fifth Kind Initiative (CE-5) team. A member of our group, Captain Joe Vallejo, was a United Airlines 747 pilot. He arranged for us to meet the Mission Rama representatives at his home located in the Simi Valley. Fernando’s talk was given entirely in Spanish with the help of simultaneous translation provided by his companions and Captain Vallejo. Having Joe there was extremely helpful because of his language skills and his excellent command of Latin American contactee literature. This combination of talents helped him translate some of the more advanced concepts of the Rama cosmology as presented by Dr. Limaco. Mission Rama Started in Peru in 1974 Our Los Angeles CE5 team was very eager to hear what the Mission Rama people were prepared to tell us. I had given each member of my group a copy of an article published in “UFO Library Magazine” by Yolanda Marcino, a past United States Rama President. This authoritative document, in a rather obscure publication with limited circulation, described the early Mission Rama extraterrestrial encounters that started in Peru in 1974. Those contacts involved the experiences of university student Sixto Paz Wells and a group of his young friends. They reportedly had repeated encounters in the desert region near Lima called Chilca. From Yolanda Marcino’s account, we also learned that Sixto and others had reportedly been transported via an inter-dimensional portal to an extraterrestrial base located on a moon of Jupiter. We know this satellite as Ganymede. Dr. Limaco spoke with authority as a seasoned Rama activist. That afternoon in the Joe Vallejo’s living room, we heard a spellbinding account of what in my opinion is an adventure demonstrating great courage and high ideals. Since 1993, I have followed the developments in Mission Rama. It now goes by the name Rahma. In Sanskrit, “Ra” signifies the heavens; “ma” means the Earth and the “h” in between the “Ra” and “ma”, stands for humanity. As a contact activist with 30 years of experience, in my judgment Rahma is still playing an important role in helping humanity build a cooperative relationship with flying saucer intelligences. Dr. Limaco and his companions explained that it was Mission Rama’s custom to promote the development of psychic ability through meditation and certain other special mental exercises. Over time, many people in their network have become skilled in the practice of automatic writing. Telepathically received information is deemed accurate when multiple automatic writers working separately obtain the identical or at least very similar messages. (This is like the practice of remote viewing in which multiple viewers are independently tasked with the same target.) An individual that consistently channels accurate messages is described by Rama people as being a “good antenna.” Rama’s Mission to Patiti Our contact team was composed of middle-class people with good paying jobs. Among our ranks were three physicians working for the Southern California Permanente Group. Other members included Dr. Dixie Sullivan working as a clinical psychologist and her friend Dotha Weybourne, married to a wealthy lawyer. In contrast, Dr. Limaco’s team was mostly composed of immigrants, some newly arrived. Even those that were professionals in their nations of origin could be severely challenged by a new language and culture. Some didn’t have papers to work in the US. I later learned from Dr. Limaco that he had assisted Rama activists who were having problems with the INS, Immigration and Naturalization Service. Once in 1990, he even drove all the way to Salinas Valley to help a comrade file papers to avoid deportation. On the ride back to the Bay Area he had a remarkable sighting. It was late at night, and he reported hearing the word “Paititi” repeatedly in his mind. In a field nearby, he saw a disc shaped object hovering close to the ground. If I recall correctly, Dr. Limaco stated that when he first heard the word, he did not know that Paititi was a remote location deep in the Peruvian Andes rainforest. Later in 1990, via mental communications received by multiple Rama activists in different locations, it became known that a major encounter was going to take place. This time it would not occur in Chilca, the desert site south of Lima. Instead, the location was Paititi in the remote jungle situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains. According to Dr. Limaco, in 1990 there were no roads to Paititi. It was sparsely populated by indigenous people that had little contact with the rest of the country. The only way to get there was by foot and this meant trekking through densely forested jungle full of poisonous plants, insects, and snakes. Those chosen for the mission would have to cross rivers infested with alligators, some up to six feet long. Automatic Writing Revealed Who Was Selected for the Jungle Mission Via a series of telepathic communications, Rama people learned that six individuals for the perilous expedition would be selected by the alleged “ETs.” In Spanish. the Rama activists call them “los hermanos mayors” (older brothers). At a general meeting in Peru attended by over two hundred supporters, the question was asked, who in the audience would be willing to go on the mission to Paititi? Everyone in the crowd raised a hand to volunteer for the encounter. Later it became clear as the result of ongoing messages from the flying saucer intelligences, that if any of the six initially selected by the “extraterrestrials” could not participate, then there could be no substitutions. Only those specifically chosen by “los hermanos mayores” would be welcomed to journey on foot to the far distant jungle location. According to Dr. Limaco’s account, the Rama people carried rice and beans as their only food during their trek to Paititi. They prepared these provisions nightly in a large cast iron pot. They were city people and not skilled woodsmen accustomed to the hardships of the rainforest. These Rama contact workers were, however, empowered by an intense desire for further contact with what they imagined was a technologically and ethically advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Daily prayer and meditation provided them with both emotional support and spiritual sustenance. They believed that they were somehow being protected by an unseen intelligence that was profoundly spiritual and desired their mission to succeed. Battery Packs Were Mysteriously Drained Dr. Limaco told us that they carried a video camera to document their anticipated encounter. After several days of marching into the jungle, they checked the camera’s batteries. The packs had been fully charged prior to their setting out for Paititi. To their dismay, they found that all the batteries were dead. The Rama team buried the now useless heavy equipment under a tall tree. They hoped to retrieve it on their way back to civilization. The Hired Guide Warned Them of Danger During the first portion of their trek, a hired guide led them further and further into the rainforest. He was well-aware of their destination and the risks to their safety that the journey entailed. The team used machetes to cut a path for themselves. After several days of hacking their way through the jungle their guide gave them this warning. “I am not going on any further and neither are you! Because beyond this point the people out there eat people! The Rama activists were disappointed to hear this disturbing pronouncement. They discussed their options, and the consensus was they would go on without the guide. Some days after exhausting trail blazing, they reportedly were so exhausted that they failed to cook supper. At nightfall, they crowded together in their small tent that was their only shelter. Despite being hungry, sleep came quickly. One evening according to Dr. Limaco, they were so drained of strength that they threw themselves down on the sand adjacent to a river. Huddled together for warmth, they fell asleep. At daybreak, they were shocked to find themselves surrounded by poisonous snakes. They apparently had slithered up to the contact workers to keep warm. One might expect the vipers to bite their frightened human bedpartners, Instead the venomous creatures slowly moved away as the morning temperature rose. Rivers and streams provided the Rama group with freshwater for drinking and bathing. This vital resource, however, was also a source of danger. Alligators were abundant in the waters they had to cross. A Grim Decision Was Made Uncertain as to how long they could go on before someone sustained injury, they made a grim decision. If one or more were seriously wounded or became sick, the rest of the team would leave most of the supplies with the casualties. Those that could still go on, would do so, without the others. They promised one another that they would return to pick up the sick or wounded on the way back. Fortuitously, none sustained serious injury or became too ill to continue. A Surprise Peace Offering Another potential danger came from the indigenous peoples of the rainforest as mentioned above. These groups have their own languages and cultures. Historically they have had bad relations with the European influenced population of Peru. Encroachment on indigenous peoples’ hunting grounds by settlements of townspeople and forestry operation have resulted in mutual suspicion and even violent confrontations. One day while passing through the indigenous people’s territory, the Rama group became frightened when a dugout canoe approached them. In the canoe were several native hunters armed with bows and arrows. However instead of expressing hostility towards the city people, the hunters volunteered to help “guide them on their mission.” As astounding as this may sound, it was Doctor Limaco’s impression that their arrival had been heralded by the ETs via telepathic messages sent to the hunters. The indigenous people were reportedly given instructions to help the Mission Rama emissaries. One hunter in a supreme act of solidarity insisted that Dr. Limaco take his hunting bow as a peace offering. This prized possession was the instrument by which the hunter fed his family and Dr. Limaco recognized its importance as a gift. As the Rama contact workers approached Paititi, their spirits rose. The telepathic communications that they were receiving were getting stronger and clearer. At night around the campfire, they carried out Rama prescribed mental exercises. They reportedly experienced profoundly peaceful states that reassured them that their mission would be successful. They Arrive at Paititi The night before reaching Paititi, each member of the team had an out-of body experience. As described to me by Dr. Limaco, each was mentally taken on-board a large ET craft that was waiting for them some one day’s marching distance away. The next morning, they continued trudging through the jungle. Although exhausted, their spirits were high because they knew that they did not have much further to go. Finally, they arrived at Paititi. Hovering above a clearing in the jungle, they encountered a large ET craft. Everyone immediately recognized it from the out of body experience of the previous night. This time the Rama team physically went onboard via a blue tractor beam that transported them one by one into the belly of the hovering ship. The Planet Earth as a Spiritual Dynamo The ET group that hosted them is known as the “Great White Brotherhood.” (This designation unfortunately sounds like the one used by criminal gangs of white nationalists.) The “ETs” received this designation because on repeated encounters the beings of this group all wore white robes. The Rama people were informed by their non-human hosts how vitally important Rama’s mission was. The goal was reportedly awesome in scope and involved nothing less than the spiritual transformation of humanity. This achievement would presumably set the stage for open contact with spiritually and technologically advanced non-human civilizations. According to the “ETs”, this transformation was happening not only on Earth, but throughout the entire galaxy as well. As reported to the Rama missionaries, vast numbers of advanced ET civilizations were awaiting a spiritual leap forward on our planet. This supposedly would allow us to join them in a galactic civilization of technologically and ethnically advanced star systems. The Rama activists explained that the Earth was a “spiritual dynamo.” A massive expansion of human consciousness on Earth would provide a psychic energetic boost to the civilizations that were assisting us. In the process, they would be lifted to the next wrung of their spiritual evolutionary ladder. They were helping us, and our transformation would be helping them to achieve their destiny. Undeniably, critics of this narrative will point out that this all sounds like a New Age oriented Star Trek episode. The Rama activists however are real people. As documented by numerous media reports in Latin America, they have an established track record of co-creating with the non-human intelligences associated with UFOs what I call Human Initiated Contact Events (HICE). And they have been doing this since the 1970s. If this account is accurate, as I believe it is, then the story of Dr. Limaco and his companions serves as an inspiration for contact activists and UFO truth seekers alike. In my opinion, their astounding story should inspire people all over the world to actively engage the intelligences responsible for the flying saucer phenomenon. Who knows, perhaps in a generation or two, the courageous efforts described in this narrative will no longer be so unusual? It is conceivable that someday, dozens of contact teams all over the world might be replicating the astounding work of the contact network now called “Rahma.” Links to additional articles about Mission Rama The article linked below is a detailed description of the origins of Mission Rama, a spiritually based Peruvian network of volunteer contact workers. They reported experiencing direct face to face encounters with what they believed were friendly extraterrestrial beings. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/28/mission-rama-one-of-the-most-important-contact-networks-of-the-20th-century/ A description of how activists from CE-5 Initiative met with activists from the Peruvian network now called Rahma. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/06/02/the-north-and-south-american-contact-networks-meet/ Long time Rama activist retired dental surgeon Fernando Limaco describes how he and four other volunteer contact workers marched into the Peruvian rainforest to rendezvous with friendly ETs in a remote region called Paititi. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/01/21/ramas-mission-to-paititi/ United Airlines Captain Joe Vallejo’s description of Rama activists opening a dimensional portal at a California UFO contact site in 1994. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/25/xendra-inter-dimensional-portal-opened-at-rama-contact-site-called-shasta/ Long time Rahma activist Enrique Villanueva explains that UFO contact work is more than having a sighting or meeting friendly extraterrestrials. It is about the expansion of human consciousness. https://contactunderground.wordpress.com/2022/02/03/et-contact-and-the-expansion-of-human-consciousness/ |
2024.03.27 21:18 Camaro84B Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by Camaro84B to bikinifamosasmx [link] [comments] |
2024.03.25 14:08 Jon__Targaryen19 Gina Holguin & Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by Jon__Targaryen19 to FamosasFap [link] [comments] |
2024.03.20 03:51 Turbulent_Shame1576 Mayrin Villanueva H (parte 1)
 | submitted by Turbulent_Shame1576 to u/Turbulent_Shame1576 [link] [comments] |
2024.03.05 20:01 Thewhiteraver ID&T Presents The Darkraver
 | Tracklist: CD1-1 –Ruffian* Intro: The Warning Written-By – C. Antunes, M. Pelupessy submitted by Thewhiteraver to gabber [link] [comments] CD1-2 –DJ Moka* Start This Record Written-By – Visnadi, Moka CD1-3 –Tellurians* The Navigator Written-By – F. Corsten, J. Matze, R. de Ruyter, R.J. Smit CD1-4 –Public Energy Three O' Three Written-By – J. Paap* CD1-5 –DJ Kevin Halstead* Hands Up Written-By – K. Halstead* CD1-6 –Mike Dunn Magic Feet (Edge Of Motion Mix) Remix – Edge Of Motion Written-By – M. Dunn* CD1-7 –Mark V & Poogie Bear* Stomp Written-By – M. Villanueva, V. Gonzalez CD1-8 –Mark V & Poogie Bear* War Written-By – M. Villanueva, V. Gonzalez CD1-9 –DJ Frank* Dinner (Remix) Written-By – D. Corten, F. Van Herwegen CD1-10 –DJ Self Back With The Hardcore (DJ Isaac Holland Remix) Remix – DJ Isaac Written-By – DJ Self CD1-11 –Andrea Bertolini Nasty Bass Written-By – A. Bertolini* CD1-12 –Citric (2) Density Written-By – F. Ducloy, J.P. Camus CD1-13 –Chicago Zone Feat. Mr. Noba* Automatik Machine Written-By – A. Baillehache* CD1-14 –DJ Gizmo Claustrofobie Written-By – F. Salee* CD1-15 –Chicago Zone* Control Your Body Written-By – A. Baillehache* CD1-16 –Ruthless & Vorwerk I Feel Like Dancing Written-By – Ruthless & Vorwerk CD1-17 –Kamiz Kamiz Song Written-By – F. Ducloy, J.H. Charles, J.P. Camus* CD1-18 –Acrobat's* Metal Box Written-By – F. Ducloy, J.P. Camus CD1-19 –Danger Hardcore Team Jumpin' Time Written-By – T. 'Tjolle* CD1-20 –DJ Youri Feat. Mon-E* Groovebird (Hardmix) Featuring – Mon-E* Written-By – B. Boon, J. v Rijwijk CD1-21 –Rotterdam Terror Corps The Music Is Too Much (Hey Hey) Written-By – Dorwart, Ruseler, Hazeleger, Peroti CD1-22 –Poogie Bear Happy Together Written-By – V. Gonzalez* CD1-23 –Darkraver* & DJ Vince Thunderground Written-By – P. Vincent, S. Sweet CD1-24 –G-Town Madness Silence Written-By – E. Kalberg, R. Jonkman CD1-25 –Earterror DJ Team* Like This Written-By – M. Hostettler* CD1-26 –X-Torturer Come Closer To The Speaker Written-By – B. de Vaan* CD1-27 –DJ Bike Pass Me (Endymion Remix) Remix – Endymion Written-By – B. Dilillo* CD1-28 –Dr. Macabre Poltergeist Written-By – G. Leroux* CD1-29 –Darkraver* & DJ Vince Intelligent Hardcore Written-By – P. Vincent, S. Sweet CD1-30 –1st Offence Throw Da Madness Written-By – E. Kalberg* CD1-31 –French Connection French Connection Written-By – G. Leroux* CD1-32 –Without A Doubt Scream CD1-33 –DJ Isaac Bad Dreams Written-By – R. Schutrups* CD1-34 –Neophyte Braincracking Written-By – D. Greten, J. Streunding CD1-35 –Square Dimensione Brand New Dance Written-By – F. Salee, M. Vos CD1-36 –Pinhead Slammin' Beatz Written-By – P. Moerland* CD1-37 –DJ J.D.A. Voel Je Die Bass Written-By – L. Hoeks* CD1-38 –Ruffian* Outro: Last Words Written-By – C. Antunes, M. Pelupessy |
2024.03.05 19:59 Thewhiteraver ID&T Presents The Darkraver
| | @steveDARKRAVERsweet @ThunderdomeOfficial https://www.discogs.com/The-Darkraver... submitted by Thewhiteraver to hardstyle [link] [comments] Tracklist: CD1-1 –Ruffian* Intro: The Warning Written-By – C. Antunes, M. Pelupessy CD1-2 –DJ Moka* Start This Record Written-By – Visnadi, Moka CD1-3 –Tellurians* The Navigator Written-By – F. Corsten, J. Matze, R. de Ruyter, R.J. Smit CD1-4 –Public Energy Three O' Three Written-By – J. Paap* CD1-5 –DJ Kevin Halstead* Hands Up Written-By – K. Halstead* CD1-6 –Mike Dunn Magic Feet (Edge Of Motion Mix) Remix – Edge Of Motion Written-By – M. Dunn* CD1-7 –Mark V & Poogie Bear* Stomp Written-By – M. Villanueva, V. Gonzalez CD1-8 –Mark V & Poogie Bear* War Written-By – M. Villanueva, V. Gonzalez CD1-9 –DJ Frank* Dinner (Remix) Written-By – D. Corten, F. Van Herwegen CD1-10 –DJ Self Back With The Hardcore (DJ Isaac Holland Remix) Remix – DJ Isaac Written-By – DJ Self CD1-11 –Andrea Bertolini Nasty Bass Written-By – A. Bertolini* CD1-12 –Citric (2) Density Written-By – F. Ducloy, J.P. Camus CD1-13 –Chicago Zone Feat. Mr. Noba* Automatik Machine Written-By – A. Baillehache* CD1-14 –DJ Gizmo Claustrofobie Written-By – F. Salee* CD1-15 –Chicago Zone* Control Your Body Written-By – A. Baillehache* CD1-16 –Ruthless & Vorwerk I Feel Like Dancing Written-By – Ruthless & Vorwerk CD1-17 –Kamiz Kamiz Song Written-By – F. Ducloy, J.H. Charles, J.P. Camus* CD1-18 –Acrobat's* Metal Box Written-By – F. Ducloy, J.P. Camus CD1-19 –Danger Hardcore Team Jumpin' Time Written-By – T. 'Tjolle* CD1-20 –DJ Youri Feat. Mon-E* Groovebird (Hardmix) Featuring – Mon-E* Written-By – B. Boon, J. v Rijwijk CD1-21 –Rotterdam Terror Corps The Music Is Too Much (Hey Hey) Written-By – Dorwart, Ruseler, Hazeleger, Peroti CD1-22 –Poogie Bear Happy Together Written-By – V. Gonzalez* CD1-23 –Darkraver* & DJ Vince Thunderground Written-By – P. Vincent, S. Sweet CD1-24 –G-Town Madness Silence Written-By – E. Kalberg, R. Jonkman CD1-25 –Earterror DJ Team* Like This Written-By – M. Hostettler* CD1-26 –X-Torturer Come Closer To The Speaker Written-By – B. de Vaan* CD1-27 –DJ Bike Pass Me (Endymion Remix) Remix – Endymion Written-By – B. Dilillo* CD1-28 –Dr. Macabre Poltergeist Written-By – G. Leroux* CD1-29 –Darkraver* & DJ Vince Intelligent Hardcore Written-By – P. Vincent, S. Sweet CD1-30 –1st Offence Throw Da Madness Written-By – E. Kalberg* CD1-31 –French Connection French Connection Written-By – G. Leroux* CD1-32 –Without A Doubt Scream CD1-33 –DJ Isaac Bad Dreams Written-By – R. Schutrups* CD1-34 –Neophyte Braincracking Written-By – D. Greten, J. Streunding CD1-35 –Square Dimensione Brand New Dance Written-By – F. Salee, M. Vos CD1-36 –Pinhead Slammin' Beatz Written-By – P. Moerland* CD1-37 –DJ J.D.A. Voel Je Die Bass Written-By – L. Hoeks* CD1-38 –Ruffian* Outro: Last Words Written-By – C. Antunes, M. Pelupessy |
2024.02.28 05:24 Slayers_Picks UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik v Gaziev Fight Predictions!
Hello!
I hope we're all doing well!
I want to thank you all so so much for the amount of upvotes last weekend, it was a genuinely shock to even hit 50+ for a fight night, let alone 100+ so holy crap thank you.
We almost got a perfect card last week... I have no clue why Yair and Moreno absolutely failed, Moreno especially, that was one hell of a strange performance by him.
This card is a mess, isn't it? It was a complete headfuck for me to write because I have written a big write up for Rosas JTurcios thinking it was a true thing, then it wasn't... then Klein v Cunningham came out of nowhere, then again, out of nowhere, Oliveira/Sopaj. So to say that i'm relieved this shit is over is putting it lightly.
Also, this could be the last "wednesday" release for a while. At least until UFC 300, that's going to be an early post because you all deserve the best effort from me.
Lets get down to business!
(c) - Champ
D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
Lets go!
Prelims
Lightweight
Ludovit Klein (20-4-1, NS) v AJ Cunningham (D) (11-3-0, NS) - Please, please do not expect this write up to be long, lengthy, and detailed, this fight happened just as I was about to basically be done with the prelims, but it should be obvious from the start who I think is going to win. Klein is coming off a fantastic win against Bahamondes, one of the highlight up and comers from the Lightweight division who himself has remarkable knockouts and highlights. Klein is a veteran of the sport, he has been in the cage with some very tough competition and for the most part has done fairly well for himself, but this is a short notice fight, and whilst I do think Klein already has a lot of advantages given his wealth of experience and his skillset, a short notice is still a bit of a detriment to both fighters performances due to the lack of cardio and preparation. Cunningham is coming off a win against someone who is… what, 8-10? 10-8? Either way, he’s coming off someone who does not have the same record and experience as Klein, and I mean, Klein on any given day is a dangerous fighter, but now it's a completely random newcomer coming in to take on a dangerous veteran. I believe that Cunningham fights at Featherweight, so the fact that this fight is at lightweight also plays into the favour of Klein, who will most likely be a bit bigger due to, and excuse my stupid ass logic at 12am on a wednesday morning, but most likely due to the fact that Klein has to cut to 155, whilst Cunningham has to cut to 145, this is a wild take I know but i’m trying to make this completely random fight relatively interesting lol. Anyway, Klein should win this one, i would be surprised if he didn’t since he has some great wins on his record. This fight is a bit of a write off in my opinion, as most short notice fights should be.
Klein via KO R2 - (1/3)
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (-260) (9-1-0, NS) v Claudio Ribeiro (+210) (11-4-0, NS) - This is going to be a fantastic first fight of the night. Duncan is coming off a brilliant win over Tiuliulin, and it gave me a lot to appreciate about Duncan. Duncan is primarily a long ranged striker who utilises a lot of kicks early on as he works his range finding attacks, he is incredibly comfortable at range and will pretty much do anything to keep at kicking range just so he can slowly chip away at the metaphorical armour of his opponent until a finish is possible. Duncan also recently showed his clinch and fence fighting cards a bit, and it was a fairly interesting thing to watch. Duncan clearly is more striking oriented in the clinch against the cage than he is a wrestler, and this is very much due to his striking background and his weapon selection due to his height. During the first round against Tiuliulin, Duncan not only expertly pinned Tiuliulin against the cage with a tonne of weight, but he also damaged him with some savage elbows whilst maintaining a strong position, and if this is the start of Duncan getting comfortable with his wrestling, or at least his clinch positioning, we got a really, really interesting fight ahead of us. Now, at range, Duncan is an absolute animal, especially against a fighter who has bare minimal defence, I mean, look at this sequence, look at where he strikes, he’s always outside of his opponents range and attack angle, it’s genuinely so beautiful to watch. Now, the question you guys are probably asking right now is whether or not Duncan can defend himself against a very explosive and dynamic fighter like Ribeiro. To answer that, I want to point out again that same clip that I recently linked (second clip). Look at where Duncan’s hands are when he’s on the retreat or angling out, it’s always up high, ready to either block or mitigate the force of any incoming attack, I think that kind of defence, if it remains strong in this weekend's fight, will be absolutely key to avoiding any flash KO that Ribeiro is very good at creating. Ribeiro is coming off a tough KO loss against Roman Kopylov, and despite the major power and explosive advantage that Ribeiro had, he was being sniped by the Sambo champion. Ribeiro still is going to be a very dangerous opponent for Duncan, especially given the fact that Duncan hasn’t quite faced someone who is very willing to do dangerous and unorthodox attacks… I mean, look at Tiuliulin, then look at Ribeiro, quickly, look at Tiuliulin again, AND NOW Ribeiro, did you see the difference? Tiuliulin is not as dynamic or explosive as Ribeiro and I can only assume that the unique style of Ribeiro is going to give Duncan a few problems early on before Duncan can get his reads and adjustments. Ribeiro has that “surprise” factor when he fights, and whilst we don’t how he is going to look given he’s coming back from a devastating KO, I still think that the first round will most likely be Ribeiro’s best round. There is just something so slick about Duncan, he seemingly came out of nowhere in the past year and whilst you might shrug aside his last performance because he fought a walking punching bag who gassed out incredibly fast, I do think that his 3 round bout against Petrosyan should carry a lot of weight. I got Duncan winning this one, I do think that Ribeiro has a solid chance in the first round, but after that it should be all Duncan, given how educated his corner is at giving advice in adjustment. This is a fantastic start to the prelims, and despite the fact that i’ll be waking up at 4am to watch this card, I sure as shit am going to enjoy this one.
Duncan via KO R3 - (1/3)
Lightweight
Loik Radzhabov (+130) (17-5-1, NS) v Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-155) (DWCS) (15-3-0, 5 FWS) - This is a fun little scrap between two relatively unknown fighters, and I believe their styles compliment each other to some degree, so we might see the best both have to offer. Radzhabov is coming off a tough KO loss against Polish Powerhouse Mateusz Rebecki, and it was a bit of a nightmare match up for Radzhabov. Prior to that however, he fought Ribovics, and whilst he found some success on the feet and on the ground, I did not like how quickly his gas tank wilted, he went from a fantastic first round to a fairly disappointing second round very quickly, and whilst that could be due to Ribovics’ adjustments in the second round, it just didn’t look too great and I could see some glaring problems. First, outside of Radzhabov’s strong power right punch, he has decent takedowns, typically favouring the single leg, and when the fight hits the ground, he generally does well at controlling his opponents movements, locking in the leg locks and just looking for submissions or ground and pound, there is little wrong with what Radzhabov does on the ground. However, there were a few caveats to Radzhabov’s two fights in the UFC. When he fought Ribovics, he was a late notice fighter, so, not a full camp which could explain the lack of cardio in the later rounds, or the sloppy, easy to read takedowns. Then, when he fought Rebecki, he came in heavy, which usually means a tough weight cut. This time around, I do hope that we see a decent time on the scales as well as a full camp because otherwise there’s no telling if he has what it takes to be in the UFC. Al-Selwady is coming off a fantastic win on DWCS, a fight that I cannot for the life of me find on UFC Fight Pass, any alternative streaming website, or highlighted youtube videos, this fight has escaped my eyes and thus I am going in blind based purely off what the stats say, and for that I cannot apologise enough. This is also a prime moment for you guys to step in and say “Slayer, you’re wrong about this guy, you’re a moronic cock”. Based on what I have seen in the stats and from discussions online, Al-Selwady seems to be a bit of a handful who utilises great cardio throughout that fight, he seemed to be non-stop and just overwhelmed Hardwick wherever the fight went. He was great at mixing up his combinations using leg kicks, head movement and a powerful right hand to, at times, stun Hardwick. He also looks to be a bit hard to track down or read, as a lot of his punches come at weird angles or timing, and that potentially comes from his footwork and movement. I mean, judging from what I have heard, and from what I have seen from some (and i mean some, like, very minimal) footage, Al-Selwady should very much get the win here due to his stand up style, and his ability to wrestle, or at least counter wrestle in this case since I assume Radzhabov will be the one to initiate the takedowns. I genuinely don’t know who is going to win this one. If there was more footage somewhere, I'd happily research more, but at this moment, UFC Fight Pass has once again failed to show me a fight that I needed to see. Going to lean on the newcomer getting the win here because of how rough Radzhabov looked in the later rounds.
Al-Selwady via KO R3 - (1/3)
Bantamweight
Javid Basharat (-500) (14-0-0, 14 FWS) v Aiemann Zahabi (+360) (10-2-0, 3 FWS) - These odds make me slightly uncomfortable. Basharat is perhaps one of the more boring yet dominant fighters to rise to relevance in recent years, and I know that it’s offensive to call someone in the UFC boring, but a lot of his fights are very much the same no matter who he fights, he has the same game plan coming into almost every fight, and whilst it works effectively, it’s just not something I can quickly remember, except from that nutshot incident back in UFC 294, that was great. Basharat is great at two things, one of those things is his kicks, he is great at staying at a fairly safe range and just using his kicks to slowly soften up his opponent, and this has been a direct result of a lot of his decision wins, he is a point fighter on the feet (until proven otherwise this weekend), and it works, he is excellent at playing it safe. On the occasion that he gets a takedown and uses his grappling capabilities, he is fairly good at maintaining top control, landing some ground and pound and just being active on top, but it’s a bit difficult to see how far his grappling can go when his last three or four opponents have always been moderately meh fighters, with his last fight being a no-contest. So, coming into this fight, expect two things to be done expertly by Basharat… He is going to stay at range and use his kicks to either slow down Zahabi or just score points, and if that fails, he’s going to go for a level change and work effortlessly on the ground to maintain top control and just win either by constant control time, or maybe he’ll pull off a submission. Zahabi has always been a tough one for me to figure out, he is currently on a winning streak, albeit it was over the span of three years. In fact, if i Math’d right, this is the first time he’s fought sooner after a fight, or at least the soonest that he’s fought. 3 Years Ago he faced Drako Rodriguez, then one year and 7 months ago he fought Turcios, then just 8 months ago he fought Aoriqileng, so he’s certainly somewhat ramping up his activity, but in those three years he’s obviously aged into his “past his prime” years and that’s probably a concern. Anyway, enough blabbering on, Zahabi is a fairly well rounded fighter who has a fair bit of power in his hands, but honestly is a more effective grappler than striker, given the fact that he will need to rely on his grappling this time around to at least remove any ranged attack problems that may come his way from Basharat. Zahabi has one glaring issue that I can see Basharat abusing, and that’s his very heavy stance, he’s so reliant on planting that lead leg to blitz, that if Basharat chops at those legs early, there is a chance that Zahabi will have no major weapons on the feet to effectively use against Basharat. Although Zahabi has figured that out during his Aoriqileng fight in which he countered off a leg kick and ended the fight with a flurry. I do not think Basharat is violent enough to recklessly engage like that though, and that’s not an attack on how Aoriqileng approached the fight, it was a solid gameplan, but the speed and elusiveness of Basharat will play a bigger role for those leg kicks, than the straight power kicks of Aoriqileng. I got Basharat winning this one, it’ll probably be another decision, but I do wonder how the fight is going to go.
Basharat via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Eryk Anders (-340) (15-8-0, NS) v Jamie Pickett (+260) (13-10-0, 4 FWS) - I often forget that Jamie Pickett was the Artem Lobov of the Middleweight division. I mean, look at that record… if he ever joins PFL he’s going to be a champ for sure, or something. Anders is coming off a tough loss against Barriault, although that fight was an absolute barn burner as a lot of Barriault fights tend to be. Anders has one major weapon that will cause Pickett problems straight off the bat, and that’s his physicality and wrestling, he is a very, very strong wrestler, but not in the technical sense, he just uses his power to wrestle and get the fight to the ground, and whilst that has sometimes caused him problems in the long run due to the expenditure of cardio and energy, it can be effective, and given the fact that Pickett isn’t the best counter-wrestler, I do suspect that Anders will use his wrestling a lot more in this fight than his striking. I mean, he has to, he has a 5 inch reach disadvantage, and unless he throws down and goes a bit wild, he doesn’t have a technical chance on the feet, so wrestling is absolutely going to have to be in play for Anders to find success. Pickett is on a very long losing streak with very little momentum behind him. In fact his only “success” was found in small amounts when he fought Fremd in which he landed two takedowns and landed less than 30 strikes in the span of 15 minutes. I cannot state this loud enough, but it is ridiculously difficult for someone like me to promote this fighter in any positive light. Sure, I can bring up the fact that he has a longer reach and could use his straight attacks to keep Anders at bay, but he has always had the longer reach when he fought and yet has shown to be incapable of at least damaging his opponents in any meaningful way. Daniel Cormier highlighted something when Pickett fought Tiuliulin, and that’s the fact that Pickett takes shots weirdly, his reactions are massive and it just seems like he’s more fragile than a… well, look at the internet, there’s plenty of fragile people out there lol. I got Anders winning this one, I have zero investment in this fight, it’s such a meh fight that I might allocate my shit-taking time to this fight.
Anders via KO R3 - (1/3)
Bantamweight
Vinicius Oliveira (DWCS) (-175) (19-3-0, 2 FWS) v Bernardo Sopaj (D) (11-2-0, 3 FWS) - This is another fight that also fell into my lap, it is probably in the wrong bout order, but considering how disgusting this card has been to write, i’ll just leave it here for the sake of recency. Oliveira was obviously preparing to fight a different fighter, but the key word I would like to highlight is “preparing”. He was already in camp, so there is no doubt that his conditioning and cardio will be in order somewhat. Oliveira is a fairly dangerous kickboxer, with phenomenal power in his hands, as displayed when he got a win on DWCS by a vicious combination. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to be using his striking to try to end the fight, it’s probably his main weapon given how comfortable he looks on the feet. However, there is a little bit of an uncomfortability with this fighter simply due to how open his chin looks, he just looks like he risks defence for more explosive output, and whilst I don’t think Sopaj will be a major threat on the feet, it is very possible that he can get clipped in an exchange. Sopaj is coming into this fight on short notice but not without some decent wins under his belt. Sopaj himself looks to be a dangerous competitor with knockout power and a decent ground game, and I mean, part of me doesn’t seem too surprised with that fact given that he trains in the same gym as Khamzat Chimaev and Kutateladze, so being in that kind of competitive environment, you’re bound to learn a whole lot. Still, whilst that sounds and looks great on paper, there is still the big factor of him coming into this fight with a bare minimum of a camp, compared to Vinicius who has been in camp preparing for his previous opponent and such. This is a short prediction because I don’t think a lot needs to be said about this short notice fight, Vinicius should still get the win here, but if there is a heavy exchange, expect Vinicius to get rocked here, I don’t trust his ability to be defensive in chaotic moments.
Oliveira via KO R2 - (1/3)
Main Card
Flyweight
Matt Schnell (#11) (+250) (16-7-0, NS) v Steve Erceg (#12) (-310) (11-1-0, 6 FWS) - This is a fascinating fight for sure. Schnell is an interesting fighter to talk about, because I think he’s ranked by convenience as he hasn’t exactly shown to be the best “ranked” fighter, and what I mean by that is whilst he is a very, very good grappler, he seems to be nothing but a grappler, and I mean, you guys know that I find that kind of stuff problematic. Especially since he is facing someone who is just as good on the ground as Schnell, but not only is Erceg very good on the ground, he’s a very well rounded individual and that normally spells disaster for pure grapplers. Schnell certainly has faced his fair share of dangerous opponents and preparing for those kinds of high level fighters can improve one's well rounded-ness, but honestly it just seems that no matter who Schnell faces, the game plan is always the same, get the fight to the ground and look for a submission, typically an arm triangle which he usually locks in successfully. However, I think Erceg is very much well educated enough to not fall for any kind of set up that Schnell tries. Erceg seemingly came out of nowhere and made his debut against a fairly dangerous Dvorak, and honestly I was a bit pessimistic about him, but after that fight I can confidently say that I look forward to a lot of his fights now, he is so calculated and so well rounded and that’s why I think his well roundedness can cause problems for Schnell who only has one main weapon in his arsenal. Erceg is fairly capable on the feet, although he doesn’t really rely on stringing his combinations together or doing complex angle changes and footwork, he is fairly standard but smart with his weaponry, and whilst he has been in striking exchanges which has resulted in his opponent finding some success, his level changes do some often, and I do believe that Erceg is going to level change fairly often during this fight, stuff any triangle attempts that Schnell may utilise off his back, and land ground and pound as punishment. That’s pretty much the only way I see Erceg winning comfortably, beating Schnell at his own game which is on the ground. This is a fantastic fight though, and one that I look forward to, not only to see where Erceg’s ceiling is, but just to see where Schnell stands in the rankings, because I mean, I genuinely think that Schnells rank is only there due to the absolute lack of competition back when Flyweight was being purged. What a strange time that was lol.
Erceg via UD - (2/3)
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (#8) (-1200) (16-0-0, 16 FWS) v Bekzat Almakhan (D) (+725) (17-1-0, 9 FWS) - I don’t like the fact that Nurmagomedov is that high of a favourite, it feels like a trap, but it’s almost understandable when you see the amount of incredible wins he has under his belt. Nurmagomedov is perhaps the next fighter to become a champion, and I know that’s me following a trend of saying “-dov’s are championship level fighters” but when you look at how he expertly dismantles his competition, it’s clear to me that he has all the right tools to fight for a belt very shortly. Nurmagomedov is ridiculously well rounded, an outstanding grappler and submission artist, as well as a very explosive kickboxer as he has shown some lightning fast kicks as well as slick timing with his punches, he is insane. Nurmagomedov’s best chance at winning this fight is to stick to his guns and wrestle, because whilst I do think he can easily out-strike Almakhan at range, I just think that the safest route for him is to just wrestle, control, land some ground and pound and try to avoid any wild exchange on the feet. Now, there are two strikes that I want to highlight that Umar uses very well, one is his left kick when in orthodox stance, he is very quick at firing that particular kick off, and I do believe that he uses that as a range finder, if it lands, he stays at that distance, because as soon as he lands that, he steps back to reset at a distance. The other thing he does well is times the counter punches, he’s great at making his opponent respect his defensive barrier, that “zone” where pocket exchanges happen, he’s capable of keeping his opponent outside of that for the most part. Now, here comes the tricky part… Almakhan is coming from numerous promotions against fighters with a somewhat decent record (except for one or two), and he looks to be a dangerous finisher, especially on the feet where he is very powerful with his punches, especially when he clashes with his opponent and there is a wild exchange. He typically does his best punches when his opponent rushes in, he is great at blitzing into range with a quick combination, with his right punch being his most devastating and accurate attack, and ending the fight on the ground as his opponent has been knocked down. Now, all of that is great, and any other opponent than Nurmagomedov would probably fall for that, but I do think the range management, speed and dexterity of Nurmagomedov’s kicking game will be enough to dull the attempts of a blitz by Almakhan, because Nurmagomedov tends to fight a little bit on the back foot, at safe kicking distance, I haven’t really seen him willingly enter the pocket for a quick combination unless its set up from luring his opponent into thinking it’s going to be a safe distance fight. This is a fantastic fight, and Almakhan absolutely has a punchers’ chance if you are willing to put a little bit on him, there is a bit of value there, but ultimately I do think Nurmagomedov is going to get a win here.
Nurmagomedov via UD - (3/3)
Flyweight
Alex Perez (#10) (+285) (24-7-0, 2 FLS) v Muhammad Mokaev (#8) (-360) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) - Alright, here is a fun one. Perez is wrongly called the pullout king, and I want to correct and bring justice to this statement coz I see it everywhere from casuals on twitter to facebook groups and all that stuff. Perez has only pulled out of 3 fights, every other cancellation you might see from his Tapology record has been outside of his control. Perez however barely has any momentum coming into this fight, he’s been floating in a weird spot of inconsistency for a while now, and outside of the couple of minutes we saw him when he fought Pantoja, he has almost been a forgotten fighter. Perez is fairly well rounded, although it’s hard for me to say how good he is going to be coming into this fight because outside of the fact that Netflix’s cancelled shows and Perez’s cancelled fights almost match in quantity, we just don’t know what he’s been working on behind the scenes. He could have vastly improved his ground game coming into this fight which would be enormous because that’s what has been a dent in his skillset. Now, on the feet, almost everyone has a chance against Mokaev because Mokaev is stupendously one dimensional with his style, he is very similar to Rosas Jr in that regard, nothing but a wrestler and a grappler with bare minimum stand up. If Perez has a chance to win, it’s on the feet, and I honestly do want to see Perez succeed a little for once before he is completely phased out of relevancy. Mokaev is one of those fighters that in my opinion is a tiny bit overhyped, and I know you guys are going to call me out on that statement given the fact i’ve been gargling his balls for the past year or so, but after seeing how Elliott handled him before losing to a submission, I do think Mokaev is beatable, but is Perez the person to do it? I don’t think so, I think Mokaev is going to be far too full on with his pressure and his wrestling early on, no longer giving Perez a chance to acclimate himself back into the Octagon, because there will be anxieties and other small mental health things given the fact that he’s 0-2 in the last 4 years. There is a chance that Perez could absolutely come out swinging looking to assert himself back into the ranked picture (despite him being ranked, as I said before, the whole ranking system for Flyweights is weird), and if Perez does come out swinging, I do see Mokaev level changing and successfully getting the fight to the ground, no doubt aided by the fact that the Octagon is the smaller version so it would require less effort to bring Perez to the fence for easier takedowns and stuff. Anyway, We know how this is going to play out, surely? Perez is the only outlier here because we don’t know how he is going to look, but given the pattern of his losses, he is going to struggle against Mokaev’s vicious and high volume of wrestling. Is Mokaev a lock? He might as well be given the fact that the prelims barely has any locks, but I am still slightly pessimistic about Mokaev, but he should have this one in the bag.
Mokaev via Sub R2 - (2/3)
Co-Main Event
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (-300) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) v Tyson Pedro (+240) (10-4-0, NS) - I don’t think this one’s going the distance. Petrino is coming off a fantastic KO win against Bukauskas, and it was a true showcase of his technique, timing, and power, it really was a beautiful KO. I want to highlight how Petrino’s stance looks, and whilst you could be concerned by his stiff stance where he kind of just stands there, that’s a stance of a counter puncher, that’s a lure and a trap to make his opponent make the first move, and if Pedro falls for that, then he is in trouble. Petrino does have wrestling in his back pocket, but it’s not a highly technical thing he uses, it’s more just to bully his opponent and to mix things up. This takedown he used against Bukauskas was nothing but power and explosiveness, it wasn’t pretty but it did it’s job in telling Bukauskas not to underestimate him. I only bring up the wrestling because I do think that’s Pedro’s only way to win this one, I think that Pedro is going to struggle against the very dangerous Petrino, and he will no doubt feel that power early on which will result in a takedown by Pedro early on. Pedro is a weird one to predict because he doesn’t exactly stand as one of those dangerous Light Heavyweights, but he has had glimpses of greatness, albeit against absolute bums in the UFC, I mean, Hunsucker? Villanueva? Not exactly the strongest wins on one's record. Pedro does have power in his hands, there’s no doubt about that, but I think his power is a bit more forceful, as in, he needs to load up to deal significant damage and generate a KO. Pedro’s strongest weapons is his wrestling and grappling, he is fairly accomplished on the ground, no doubt thanks to his black belt in both Brazilian and Japanese Jiu Jitsu. The difference between the two Jiu Jitsu’s is the fact that the Japanese variant is very much more of a traditional self defence system, a lot of throws, some strikes, anything that can assist in defending oneself from an attacker, so lets leave Japanese Jiu Jitsu as a more demonstrative martial art instead of a combat sport. That aside, his BJJ is still fairly decent and he has used it frequently prior to his injury a few years ago. Pedro is one of those Australian fighters who is just there to fill in the gap of “where is the aussie fighter on this aussie card”, and I only say that because I don’t exactly rate those kinds of fighters that highly, and this upcoming bout is probably his most dangerous one due to the force that is Petrino both on the feet and evidently on the ground, or at least in the transitions to the ground, he is all round a powerful fighter and a dangerous opponent. I got Petrino winning this one, it’s going to be an exciting fight.
Petrino via KO R2 - (2/3)
Main Event
Heavyweight
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#13) (+135) (13-5-0, NS) v Shamil Gaziev (-165) (12-0-0, 12 FWS) - This is the budget version of the next Apex Heavyweight Main Event: Tuivasa v Tybura. Rozenstruik is certainly one of those heavyweights who stands out for being somewhat decent in one area, but dreadful in another. Now, I know that Rozenstruik has a whole lot of experience in kickboxing, and he does bring that experience into the MMA setting, but honestly I don’t see a lot of that technique in his striking, he has nothing but power and maybe some strong fundamentals, but that’s about it. Rozenstruik does have the ability to knockout Gaziev, and if the fight remains on the feet, especially at range, Rozenstruik could find his range early on to rock Gaziev and work for a finish, but let's be real, Gaziev is not going to make that easy, there is no way that they’ll just stand there facing each other, I absolutely refuse to watch another version of Ngannou v Lewis, not after i’ve woken up at 4am to watch this Apex event. Rozenstruik has one glaring problem that will most likely be exposed by Gaziev, and that’s his lack of wrestling. Now, there is an argument that Rozenstruik preparing for fighters like Blaydes and Almeida is going to pay off in this fight against Gaziev, but I do think that Gaziev is fairly well rounded enough to keep the fight aggressive on the feet and to level change when needed, whereas Blaydes and Almeida are almost exclusively wrestlers. Still, it’s always interesting, and often disappointing, to watch Rozenstruik fight, I’m sure you guys remember I was incredibly high on this fighter for quite some time, and whilst I still think he can use his kickboxing background to potentially put away Gaziev, I just think he can be a bit too sloppy, and that sloppiness is going to result in Gaziev capitalising on a takedown. Gaziev is someone who I have very, very little to say that probably hasn’t already been said, and the main reason why I have nothing to say about him is because he’s only had one fight in the UFC against freakin Martin Buday, and it was mostly just Gaziev tagging him up with powerful shots against the cage until a finish happened. It was mostly a forgettable fight if i’m being honest, and I usually try my best to remember fights, so when i started watching tape it was not until a few minutes in when I realised “oh, this fight”. Anyway, Gaziev should get the win here if he utilises the wrestling early and often, but regardless of who wins this one, the safest bet should be that this fight does not go the distance.
Gaziev via KO R2 - (1/3)
Primary Parlay: Basharat/Zahabi R3 Starts or o2.5 + Erceg/Schnell goes the distance + Petrino/Pedro and Gaziev/Rozenstruik does not go the distance. (Optional additions can be: Nurmagomedov/Almakhan o2.5)
Locks of the week are: Basharat, Erceg, Nurmagomedov, Mokaev and Petrino
Alt bets are: Ribeiro KO R1, Sopaj KO/Dec (Double Chance), Rozenstruik KO
And that's it!
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Lets have a fun and friendly discussion down below about this weekends card!
I hope you all have an amazing day, look after yourselves, and enjoy this awesome event!
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I hope we're all doing well!
I want to thank you all so so much for the amount of upvotes last weekend, it was a genuinely shock to even hit 50+ for a fight night, let alone 100+ so holy crap thank you.
We almost got a perfect card last week... I have no clue why Yair and Moreno absolutely failed, Moreno especially, that was one hell of a strange performance by him.
This card is a mess, isn't it? It was a complete headfuck for me to write because I have written a big write up for Rosas JTurcios thinking it was a true thing, then it wasn't... then Klein v Cunningham came out of nowhere, then again, out of nowhere, Oliveira/Sopaj. So to say that i'm relieved this shit is over is putting it lightly.
Also, this could be the last "wednesday" release for a while. At least until UFC 300, that's going to be an early post because you all deserve the best effort from me.
Lets get down to business!
(c) - Champ
D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
Lets go!
Prelims
Lightweight
Ludovit Klein (20-4-1, NS) v AJ Cunningham (D) (11-3-0, NS) - Please, please do not expect this write up to be long, lengthy, and detailed, this fight happened just as I was about to basically be done with the prelims, but it should be obvious from the start who I think is going to win. Klein is coming off a fantastic win against Bahamondes, one of the highlight up and comers from the Lightweight division who himself has remarkable knockouts and highlights. Klein is a veteran of the sport, he has been in the cage with some very tough competition and for the most part has done fairly well for himself, but this is a short notice fight, and whilst I do think Klein already has a lot of advantages given his wealth of experience and his skillset, a short notice is still a bit of a detriment to both fighters performances due to the lack of cardio and preparation. Cunningham is coming off a win against someone who is… what, 8-10? 10-8? Either way, he’s coming off someone who does not have the same record and experience as Klein, and I mean, Klein on any given day is a dangerous fighter, but now it's a completely random newcomer coming in to take on a dangerous veteran. I believe that Cunningham fights at Featherweight, so the fact that this fight is at lightweight also plays into the favour of Klein, who will most likely be a bit bigger due to, and excuse my stupid ass logic at 12am on a wednesday morning, but most likely due to the fact that Klein has to cut to 155, whilst Cunningham has to cut to 145, this is a wild take I know but i’m trying to make this completely random fight relatively interesting lol. Anyway, Klein should win this one, i would be surprised if he didn’t since he has some great wins on his record. This fight is a bit of a write off in my opinion, as most short notice fights should be.
Klein via KO R2 - (1/3)
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (-260) (9-1-0, NS) v Claudio Ribeiro (+210) (11-4-0, NS) - This is going to be a fantastic first fight of the night. Duncan is coming off a brilliant win over Tiuliulin, and it gave me a lot to appreciate about Duncan. Duncan is primarily a long ranged striker who utilises a lot of kicks early on as he works his range finding attacks, he is incredibly comfortable at range and will pretty much do anything to keep at kicking range just so he can slowly chip away at the metaphorical armour of his opponent until a finish is possible. Duncan also recently showed his clinch and fence fighting cards a bit, and it was a fairly interesting thing to watch. Duncan clearly is more striking oriented in the clinch against the cage than he is a wrestler, and this is very much due to his striking background and his weapon selection due to his height. During the first round against Tiuliulin, Duncan not only expertly pinned Tiuliulin against the cage with a tonne of weight, but he also damaged him with some savage elbows whilst maintaining a strong position, and if this is the start of Duncan getting comfortable with his wrestling, or at least his clinch positioning, we got a really, really interesting fight ahead of us. Now, at range, Duncan is an absolute animal, especially against a fighter who has bare minimal defence, I mean, look at this sequence, look at where he strikes, he’s always outside of his opponents range and attack angle, it’s genuinely so beautiful to watch. Now, the question you guys are probably asking right now is whether or not Duncan can defend himself against a very explosive and dynamic fighter like Ribeiro. To answer that, I want to point out again that same clip that I recently linked (second clip). Look at where Duncan’s hands are when he’s on the retreat or angling out, it’s always up high, ready to either block or mitigate the force of any incoming attack, I think that kind of defence, if it remains strong in this weekend's fight, will be absolutely key to avoiding any flash KO that Ribeiro is very good at creating. Ribeiro is coming off a tough KO loss against Roman Kopylov, and despite the major power and explosive advantage that Ribeiro had, he was being sniped by the Sambo champion. Ribeiro still is going to be a very dangerous opponent for Duncan, especially given the fact that Duncan hasn’t quite faced someone who is very willing to do dangerous and unorthodox attacks… I mean, look at Tiuliulin, then look at Ribeiro, quickly, look at Tiuliulin again, AND NOW Ribeiro, did you see the difference? Tiuliulin is not as dynamic or explosive as Ribeiro and I can only assume that the unique style of Ribeiro is going to give Duncan a few problems early on before Duncan can get his reads and adjustments. Ribeiro has that “surprise” factor when he fights, and whilst we don’t how he is going to look given he’s coming back from a devastating KO, I still think that the first round will most likely be Ribeiro’s best round. There is just something so slick about Duncan, he seemingly came out of nowhere in the past year and whilst you might shrug aside his last performance because he fought a walking punching bag who gassed out incredibly fast, I do think that his 3 round bout against Petrosyan should carry a lot of weight. I got Duncan winning this one, I do think that Ribeiro has a solid chance in the first round, but after that it should be all Duncan, given how educated his corner is at giving advice in adjustment. This is a fantastic start to the prelims, and despite the fact that i’ll be waking up at 4am to watch this card, I sure as shit am going to enjoy this one.
Duncan via KO R3 - (1/3)
Lightweight
Loik Radzhabov (+130) (17-5-1, NS) v Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-155) (DWCS) (15-3-0, 5 FWS) - This is a fun little scrap between two relatively unknown fighters, and I believe their styles compliment each other to some degree, so we might see the best both have to offer. Radzhabov is coming off a tough KO loss against Polish Powerhouse Mateusz Rebecki, and it was a bit of a nightmare match up for Radzhabov. Prior to that however, he fought Ribovics, and whilst he found some success on the feet and on the ground, I did not like how quickly his gas tank wilted, he went from a fantastic first round to a fairly disappointing second round very quickly, and whilst that could be due to Ribovics’ adjustments in the second round, it just didn’t look too great and I could see some glaring problems. First, outside of Radzhabov’s strong power right punch, he has decent takedowns, typically favouring the single leg, and when the fight hits the ground, he generally does well at controlling his opponents movements, locking in the leg locks and just looking for submissions or ground and pound, there is little wrong with what Radzhabov does on the ground. However, there were a few caveats to Radzhabov’s two fights in the UFC. When he fought Ribovics, he was a late notice fighter, so, not a full camp which could explain the lack of cardio in the later rounds, or the sloppy, easy to read takedowns. Then, when he fought Rebecki, he came in heavy, which usually means a tough weight cut. This time around, I do hope that we see a decent time on the scales as well as a full camp because otherwise there’s no telling if he has what it takes to be in the UFC. Al-Selwady is coming off a fantastic win on DWCS, a fight that I cannot for the life of me find on UFC Fight Pass, any alternative streaming website, or highlighted youtube videos, this fight has escaped my eyes and thus I am going in blind based purely off what the stats say, and for that I cannot apologise enough. This is also a prime moment for you guys to step in and say “Slayer, you’re wrong about this guy, you’re a moronic cock”. Based on what I have seen in the stats and from discussions online, Al-Selwady seems to be a bit of a handful who utilises great cardio throughout that fight, he seemed to be non-stop and just overwhelmed Hardwick wherever the fight went. He was great at mixing up his combinations using leg kicks, head movement and a powerful right hand to, at times, stun Hardwick. He also looks to be a bit hard to track down or read, as a lot of his punches come at weird angles or timing, and that potentially comes from his footwork and movement. I mean, judging from what I have heard, and from what I have seen from some (and i mean some, like, very minimal) footage, Al-Selwady should very much get the win here due to his stand up style, and his ability to wrestle, or at least counter wrestle in this case since I assume Radzhabov will be the one to initiate the takedowns. I genuinely don’t know who is going to win this one. If there was more footage somewhere, I'd happily research more, but at this moment, UFC Fight Pass has once again failed to show me a fight that I needed to see. Going to lean on the newcomer getting the win here because of how rough Radzhabov looked in the later rounds.
Al-Selwady via KO R3 - (1/3)
Bantamweight
Javid Basharat (-500) (14-0-0, 14 FWS) v Aiemann Zahabi (+360) (10-2-0, 3 FWS) - These odds make me slightly uncomfortable. Basharat is perhaps one of the more boring yet dominant fighters to rise to relevance in recent years, and I know that it’s offensive to call someone in the UFC boring, but a lot of his fights are very much the same no matter who he fights, he has the same game plan coming into almost every fight, and whilst it works effectively, it’s just not something I can quickly remember, except from that nutshot incident back in UFC 294, that was great. Basharat is great at two things, one of those things is his kicks, he is great at staying at a fairly safe range and just using his kicks to slowly soften up his opponent, and this has been a direct result of a lot of his decision wins, he is a point fighter on the feet (until proven otherwise this weekend), and it works, he is excellent at playing it safe. On the occasion that he gets a takedown and uses his grappling capabilities, he is fairly good at maintaining top control, landing some ground and pound and just being active on top, but it’s a bit difficult to see how far his grappling can go when his last three or four opponents have always been moderately meh fighters, with his last fight being a no-contest. So, coming into this fight, expect two things to be done expertly by Basharat… He is going to stay at range and use his kicks to either slow down Zahabi or just score points, and if that fails, he’s going to go for a level change and work effortlessly on the ground to maintain top control and just win either by constant control time, or maybe he’ll pull off a submission. Zahabi has always been a tough one for me to figure out, he is currently on a winning streak, albeit it was over the span of three years. In fact, if i Math’d right, this is the first time he’s fought sooner after a fight, or at least the soonest that he’s fought. 3 Years Ago he faced Drako Rodriguez, then one year and 7 months ago he fought Turcios, then just 8 months ago he fought Aoriqileng, so he’s certainly somewhat ramping up his activity, but in those three years he’s obviously aged into his “past his prime” years and that’s probably a concern. Anyway, enough blabbering on, Zahabi is a fairly well rounded fighter who has a fair bit of power in his hands, but honestly is a more effective grappler than striker, given the fact that he will need to rely on his grappling this time around to at least remove any ranged attack problems that may come his way from Basharat. Zahabi has one glaring issue that I can see Basharat abusing, and that’s his very heavy stance, he’s so reliant on planting that lead leg to blitz, that if Basharat chops at those legs early, there is a chance that Zahabi will have no major weapons on the feet to effectively use against Basharat. Although Zahabi has figured that out during his Aoriqileng fight in which he countered off a leg kick and ended the fight with a flurry. I do not think Basharat is violent enough to recklessly engage like that though, and that’s not an attack on how Aoriqileng approached the fight, it was a solid gameplan, but the speed and elusiveness of Basharat will play a bigger role for those leg kicks, than the straight power kicks of Aoriqileng. I got Basharat winning this one, it’ll probably be another decision, but I do wonder how the fight is going to go.
Basharat via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Eryk Anders (-340) (15-8-0, NS) v Jamie Pickett (+260) (13-10-0, 4 FWS) - I often forget that Jamie Pickett was the Artem Lobov of the Middleweight division. I mean, look at that record… if he ever joins PFL he’s going to be a champ for sure, or something. Anders is coming off a tough loss against Barriault, although that fight was an absolute barn burner as a lot of Barriault fights tend to be. Anders has one major weapon that will cause Pickett problems straight off the bat, and that’s his physicality and wrestling, he is a very, very strong wrestler, but not in the technical sense, he just uses his power to wrestle and get the fight to the ground, and whilst that has sometimes caused him problems in the long run due to the expenditure of cardio and energy, it can be effective, and given the fact that Pickett isn’t the best counter-wrestler, I do suspect that Anders will use his wrestling a lot more in this fight than his striking. I mean, he has to, he has a 5 inch reach disadvantage, and unless he throws down and goes a bit wild, he doesn’t have a technical chance on the feet, so wrestling is absolutely going to have to be in play for Anders to find success. Pickett is on a very long losing streak with very little momentum behind him. In fact his only “success” was found in small amounts when he fought Fremd in which he landed two takedowns and landed less than 30 strikes in the span of 15 minutes. I cannot state this loud enough, but it is ridiculously difficult for someone like me to promote this fighter in any positive light. Sure, I can bring up the fact that he has a longer reach and could use his straight attacks to keep Anders at bay, but he has always had the longer reach when he fought and yet has shown to be incapable of at least damaging his opponents in any meaningful way. Daniel Cormier highlighted something when Pickett fought Tiuliulin, and that’s the fact that Pickett takes shots weirdly, his reactions are massive and it just seems like he’s more fragile than a… well, look at the internet, there’s plenty of fragile people out there lol. I got Anders winning this one, I have zero investment in this fight, it’s such a meh fight that I might allocate my shit-taking time to this fight.
Anders via KO R3 - (1/3)
Bantamweight
Vinicius Oliveira (DWCS) (-175) (19-3-0, 2 FWS) v Bernardo Sopaj (D) (11-2-0, 3 FWS) - This is another fight that also fell into my lap, it is probably in the wrong bout order, but considering how disgusting this card has been to write, i’ll just leave it here for the sake of recency. Oliveira was obviously preparing to fight a different fighter, but the key word I would like to highlight is “preparing”. He was already in camp, so there is no doubt that his conditioning and cardio will be in order somewhat. Oliveira is a fairly dangerous kickboxer, with phenomenal power in his hands, as displayed when he got a win on DWCS by a vicious combination. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to be using his striking to try to end the fight, it’s probably his main weapon given how comfortable he looks on the feet. However, there is a little bit of an uncomfortability with this fighter simply due to how open his chin looks, he just looks like he risks defence for more explosive output, and whilst I don’t think Sopaj will be a major threat on the feet, it is very possible that he can get clipped in an exchange. Sopaj is coming into this fight on short notice but not without some decent wins under his belt. Sopaj himself looks to be a dangerous competitor with knockout power and a decent ground game, and I mean, part of me doesn’t seem too surprised with that fact given that he trains in the same gym as Khamzat Chimaev and Kutateladze, so being in that kind of competitive environment, you’re bound to learn a whole lot. Still, whilst that sounds and looks great on paper, there is still the big factor of him coming into this fight with a bare minimum of a camp, compared to Vinicius who has been in camp preparing for his previous opponent and such. This is a short prediction because I don’t think a lot needs to be said about this short notice fight, Vinicius should still get the win here, but if there is a heavy exchange, expect Vinicius to get rocked here, I don’t trust his ability to be defensive in chaotic moments.
Oliveira via KO R2 - (1/3)
Main Card
Flyweight
Matt Schnell (#11) (+250) (16-7-0, NS) v Steve Erceg (#12) (-310) (11-1-0, 6 FWS) - This is a fascinating fight for sure. Schnell is an interesting fighter to talk about, because I think he’s ranked by convenience as he hasn’t exactly shown to be the best “ranked” fighter, and what I mean by that is whilst he is a very, very good grappler, he seems to be nothing but a grappler, and I mean, you guys know that I find that kind of stuff problematic. Especially since he is facing someone who is just as good on the ground as Schnell, but not only is Erceg very good on the ground, he’s a very well rounded individual and that normally spells disaster for pure grapplers. Schnell certainly has faced his fair share of dangerous opponents and preparing for those kinds of high level fighters can improve one's well rounded-ness, but honestly it just seems that no matter who Schnell faces, the game plan is always the same, get the fight to the ground and look for a submission, typically an arm triangle which he usually locks in successfully. However, I think Erceg is very much well educated enough to not fall for any kind of set up that Schnell tries. Erceg seemingly came out of nowhere and made his debut against a fairly dangerous Dvorak, and honestly I was a bit pessimistic about him, but after that fight I can confidently say that I look forward to a lot of his fights now, he is so calculated and so well rounded and that’s why I think his well roundedness can cause problems for Schnell who only has one main weapon in his arsenal. Erceg is fairly capable on the feet, although he doesn’t really rely on stringing his combinations together or doing complex angle changes and footwork, he is fairly standard but smart with his weaponry, and whilst he has been in striking exchanges which has resulted in his opponent finding some success, his level changes do some often, and I do believe that Erceg is going to level change fairly often during this fight, stuff any triangle attempts that Schnell may utilise off his back, and land ground and pound as punishment. That’s pretty much the only way I see Erceg winning comfortably, beating Schnell at his own game which is on the ground. This is a fantastic fight though, and one that I look forward to, not only to see where Erceg’s ceiling is, but just to see where Schnell stands in the rankings, because I mean, I genuinely think that Schnells rank is only there due to the absolute lack of competition back when Flyweight was being purged. What a strange time that was lol.
Erceg via UD - (2/3)
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (#8) (-1200) (16-0-0, 16 FWS) v Bekzat Almakhan (D) (+725) (17-1-0, 9 FWS) - I don’t like the fact that Nurmagomedov is that high of a favourite, it feels like a trap, but it’s almost understandable when you see the amount of incredible wins he has under his belt. Nurmagomedov is perhaps the next fighter to become a champion, and I know that’s me following a trend of saying “-dov’s are championship level fighters” but when you look at how he expertly dismantles his competition, it’s clear to me that he has all the right tools to fight for a belt very shortly. Nurmagomedov is ridiculously well rounded, an outstanding grappler and submission artist, as well as a very explosive kickboxer as he has shown some lightning fast kicks as well as slick timing with his punches, he is insane. Nurmagomedov’s best chance at winning this fight is to stick to his guns and wrestle, because whilst I do think he can easily out-strike Almakhan at range, I just think that the safest route for him is to just wrestle, control, land some ground and pound and try to avoid any wild exchange on the feet. Now, there are two strikes that I want to highlight that Umar uses very well, one is his left kick when in orthodox stance, he is very quick at firing that particular kick off, and I do believe that he uses that as a range finder, if it lands, he stays at that distance, because as soon as he lands that, he steps back to reset at a distance. The other thing he does well is times the counter punches, he’s great at making his opponent respect his defensive barrier, that “zone” where pocket exchanges happen, he’s capable of keeping his opponent outside of that for the most part. Now, here comes the tricky part… Almakhan is coming from numerous promotions against fighters with a somewhat decent record (except for one or two), and he looks to be a dangerous finisher, especially on the feet where he is very powerful with his punches, especially when he clashes with his opponent and there is a wild exchange. He typically does his best punches when his opponent rushes in, he is great at blitzing into range with a quick combination, with his right punch being his most devastating and accurate attack, and ending the fight on the ground as his opponent has been knocked down. Now, all of that is great, and any other opponent than Nurmagomedov would probably fall for that, but I do think the range management, speed and dexterity of Nurmagomedov’s kicking game will be enough to dull the attempts of a blitz by Almakhan, because Nurmagomedov tends to fight a little bit on the back foot, at safe kicking distance, I haven’t really seen him willingly enter the pocket for a quick combination unless its set up from luring his opponent into thinking it’s going to be a safe distance fight. This is a fantastic fight, and Almakhan absolutely has a punchers’ chance if you are willing to put a little bit on him, there is a bit of value there, but ultimately I do think Nurmagomedov is going to get a win here.
Nurmagomedov via UD - (3/3)
Flyweight
Alex Perez (#10) (+285) (24-7-0, 2 FLS) v Muhammad Mokaev (#8) (-360) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) - Alright, here is a fun one. Perez is wrongly called the pullout king, and I want to correct and bring justice to this statement coz I see it everywhere from casuals on twitter to facebook groups and all that stuff. Perez has only pulled out of 3 fights, every other cancellation you might see from his Tapology record has been outside of his control. Perez however barely has any momentum coming into this fight, he’s been floating in a weird spot of inconsistency for a while now, and outside of the couple of minutes we saw him when he fought Pantoja, he has almost been a forgotten fighter. Perez is fairly well rounded, although it’s hard for me to say how good he is going to be coming into this fight because outside of the fact that Netflix’s cancelled shows and Perez’s cancelled fights almost match in quantity, we just don’t know what he’s been working on behind the scenes. He could have vastly improved his ground game coming into this fight which would be enormous because that’s what has been a dent in his skillset. Now, on the feet, almost everyone has a chance against Mokaev because Mokaev is stupendously one dimensional with his style, he is very similar to Rosas Jr in that regard, nothing but a wrestler and a grappler with bare minimum stand up. If Perez has a chance to win, it’s on the feet, and I honestly do want to see Perez succeed a little for once before he is completely phased out of relevancy. Mokaev is one of those fighters that in my opinion is a tiny bit overhyped, and I know you guys are going to call me out on that statement given the fact i’ve been gargling his balls for the past year or so, but after seeing how Elliott handled him before losing to a submission, I do think Mokaev is beatable, but is Perez the person to do it? I don’t think so, I think Mokaev is going to be far too full on with his pressure and his wrestling early on, no longer giving Perez a chance to acclimate himself back into the Octagon, because there will be anxieties and other small mental health things given the fact that he’s 0-2 in the last 4 years. There is a chance that Perez could absolutely come out swinging looking to assert himself back into the ranked picture (despite him being ranked, as I said before, the whole ranking system for Flyweights is weird), and if Perez does come out swinging, I do see Mokaev level changing and successfully getting the fight to the ground, no doubt aided by the fact that the Octagon is the smaller version so it would require less effort to bring Perez to the fence for easier takedowns and stuff. Anyway, We know how this is going to play out, surely? Perez is the only outlier here because we don’t know how he is going to look, but given the pattern of his losses, he is going to struggle against Mokaev’s vicious and high volume of wrestling. Is Mokaev a lock? He might as well be given the fact that the prelims barely has any locks, but I am still slightly pessimistic about Mokaev, but he should have this one in the bag.
Mokaev via Sub R2 - (2/3)
Co-Main Event
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (-300) (10-0-0, 10 FWS) v Tyson Pedro (+240) (10-4-0, NS) - I don’t think this one’s going the distance. Petrino is coming off a fantastic KO win against Bukauskas, and it was a true showcase of his technique, timing, and power, it really was a beautiful KO. I want to highlight how Petrino’s stance looks, and whilst you could be concerned by his stiff stance where he kind of just stands there, that’s a stance of a counter puncher, that’s a lure and a trap to make his opponent make the first move, and if Pedro falls for that, then he is in trouble. Petrino does have wrestling in his back pocket, but it’s not a highly technical thing he uses, it’s more just to bully his opponent and to mix things up. This takedown he used against Bukauskas was nothing but power and explosiveness, it wasn’t pretty but it did it’s job in telling Bukauskas not to underestimate him. I only bring up the wrestling because I do think that’s Pedro’s only way to win this one, I think that Pedro is going to struggle against the very dangerous Petrino, and he will no doubt feel that power early on which will result in a takedown by Pedro early on. Pedro is a weird one to predict because he doesn’t exactly stand as one of those dangerous Light Heavyweights, but he has had glimpses of greatness, albeit against absolute bums in the UFC, I mean, Hunsucker? Villanueva? Not exactly the strongest wins on one's record. Pedro does have power in his hands, there’s no doubt about that, but I think his power is a bit more forceful, as in, he needs to load up to deal significant damage and generate a KO. Pedro’s strongest weapons is his wrestling and grappling, he is fairly accomplished on the ground, no doubt thanks to his black belt in both Brazilian and Japanese Jiu Jitsu. The difference between the two Jiu Jitsu’s is the fact that the Japanese variant is very much more of a traditional self defence system, a lot of throws, some strikes, anything that can assist in defending oneself from an attacker, so lets leave Japanese Jiu Jitsu as a more demonstrative martial art instead of a combat sport. That aside, his BJJ is still fairly decent and he has used it frequently prior to his injury a few years ago. Pedro is one of those Australian fighters who is just there to fill in the gap of “where is the aussie fighter on this aussie card”, and I only say that because I don’t exactly rate those kinds of fighters that highly, and this upcoming bout is probably his most dangerous one due to the force that is Petrino both on the feet and evidently on the ground, or at least in the transitions to the ground, he is all round a powerful fighter and a dangerous opponent. I got Petrino winning this one, it’s going to be an exciting fight.
Petrino via KO R2 - (2/3)
Main Event
Heavyweight
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#13) (+135) (13-5-0, NS) v Shamil Gaziev (-165) (12-0-0, 12 FWS) - This is the budget version of the next Apex Heavyweight Main Event: Tuivasa v Tybura. Rozenstruik is certainly one of those heavyweights who stands out for being somewhat decent in one area, but dreadful in another. Now, I know that Rozenstruik has a whole lot of experience in kickboxing, and he does bring that experience into the MMA setting, but honestly I don’t see a lot of that technique in his striking, he has nothing but power and maybe some strong fundamentals, but that’s about it. Rozenstruik does have the ability to knockout Gaziev, and if the fight remains on the feet, especially at range, Rozenstruik could find his range early on to rock Gaziev and work for a finish, but let's be real, Gaziev is not going to make that easy, there is no way that they’ll just stand there facing each other, I absolutely refuse to watch another version of Ngannou v Lewis, not after i’ve woken up at 4am to watch this Apex event. Rozenstruik has one glaring problem that will most likely be exposed by Gaziev, and that’s his lack of wrestling. Now, there is an argument that Rozenstruik preparing for fighters like Blaydes and Almeida is going to pay off in this fight against Gaziev, but I do think that Gaziev is fairly well rounded enough to keep the fight aggressive on the feet and to level change when needed, whereas Blaydes and Almeida are almost exclusively wrestlers. Still, it’s always interesting, and often disappointing, to watch Rozenstruik fight, I’m sure you guys remember I was incredibly high on this fighter for quite some time, and whilst I still think he can use his kickboxing background to potentially put away Gaziev, I just think he can be a bit too sloppy, and that sloppiness is going to result in Gaziev capitalising on a takedown. Gaziev is someone who I have very, very little to say that probably hasn’t already been said, and the main reason why I have nothing to say about him is because he’s only had one fight in the UFC against freakin Martin Buday, and it was mostly just Gaziev tagging him up with powerful shots against the cage until a finish happened. It was mostly a forgettable fight if i’m being honest, and I usually try my best to remember fights, so when i started watching tape it was not until a few minutes in when I realised “oh, this fight”. Anyway, Gaziev should get the win here if he utilises the wrestling early and often, but regardless of who wins this one, the safest bet should be that this fight does not go the distance.
Gaziev via KO R2 - (1/3)
Primary Parlay: Basharat/Zahabi R3 Starts or o2.5 + Erceg/Schnell goes the distance + Petrino/Pedro and Gaziev/Rozenstruik does not go the distance. (Optional additions can be: Nurmagomedov/Almakhan o2.5)
Locks of the week are: Basharat, Erceg, Nurmagomedov, Mokaev and Petrino
Alt bets are: Ribeiro KO R1, Sopaj KO/Dec (Double Chance), Rozenstruik KO
And that's it!
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2024.02.04 16:10 sideswipe781 UFC Vegas 86: Hermansson v Pyfer - Full Card Betting Preview - SideswipeMMA
Lifetime - Staked: 689.05u, Profit/Loss: +37.81u, ROI: 5.49%, Parlay Suggestions: 140-46 Dog of the Week: 10-6
2024 - Staked: 41.95u, Profit/Loss: 4.46u, ROI: 10.62%
No podcast this week as I wasn’t able to find the time to edit/record it. Apologies, folks.
I do all my written breakdowns and podcast for free, which probably takes about 15 hours work in total every week. I love bringing the content to you guys and my primary motivation is to make this subreddit better understand gambling, and I also think this information should be freely available to try and make everyone more knowledgeable. Whilst I don’t and won’t charge anything for the stuff I put out, the following link is available if you were feeling generous enough to tip me for my work: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/SideswipeMMA
As always, scroll down for UFC Vegas 86 Breakdowns. The following is just a recap of last event’s results.
UFC Vegas 85 (PREVIOUS CARD)
Staked: 17.95u
Profit/Loss: +1.76u
ROI: 9.81%
Parlay Suggestions: 4-1
Dog of the Week: Drew Dober ❌
Not a great event for me really. I put myself in a great position with the Randy Brown and Natalia Silva parlays, but losses on a couple of props kind of ate into that. I was happy with the Stoliarenko submission in R1 play as I still think it had serious value, and I also thin Dober outperformed his price tag, he was just let down by fight IQ. Definitely time to re-calibrate my opinion on Charles Radtke, though!
✅2u Nassourdine Imavov to Win at -150 (won +1.34u)
❌ 1.5u Drew Dober to Win at +163
❌ 0.5u Drew Dober to Win by TKO/KO at +220
✅ 2u Randy Brown to Win at -130 (won +1.6u) (parlay with Lainesse/Patterson Under 2.5 Rounds ✅)
✅ 3u Natalia Silva to Win at -120 (won +2.49u) (parlay with Jasmine Jasudavicius ✅)
✅ 1u Randy Brown & Natalia Silva to Win at +100 (won +1u)
❌ 2u Gilbert Urbina to Win at -175
✅ 0.5u Molly McCann to Win ITD at +260 (won +1.3u)
❌ 1.5u Azat Maksum to Win by Decision at +116
❌ 1u Julija Stoliarenko Win by Submission in Round 1 at +600
✅ 2u Marquel Mederos to Win at -137 (won +1.48u)
❌ 0.7u Trixie
❌ 0.25u Parlay Pieces (Imavov, Brown, Silva, Urbina, Mederos) at +833
UFC Vegas 86
Yay…the Apex…again. And this time with a fuck tonne of debutants! You should know by now that I am not usually keen on getting involved with betting debutant fights, as the information we get in preparation has to be called ‘low confidence’. I did get stuck into tape with the first few bouts involving debutants/guys with limited UFC experience, but all it did was confirm that belief and make me feel like I was wasting my time. Given that there’s a tonne of lines out for the next few cards, I was more interested in drawing my attention there, and a busy end to the week in my personal life meant that I barely even scratched the surface on some of these debutant bouts. Unfortunately, that also meant I had to skip on the podcast this week too. Apologies.
Let’s get into it.
Jack Hermansson v Joe Pyfer
Finally, a competent opponent for Joe Pyfer. It can be a bit painful sometimes watching someone that’s clearly being angled as a super prospect being given small, insignificant steps up in competition as they build their record, but at least it can be a profitable angle as a bettor! If you believed in Joe Pyfer and bet him ITD every time, you’d be doing pretty well for yourself right now.
Jack Hermansson is an interesting step up in competition, because he’s pretty damn well-rounded in all areas of MMA. He’s a Jack (ha) of all trades, but very much a master of none. In recent fights he’s soundly looked the better fighter than the likes of Roman Dolidze (yes he lost but statement is true) , Edmen Shahbazyan, and Chris Curtis, but has also been shut out by Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori. In short, Jack’s a very competent minute winner if he can use his complete game (IE takedowns and top control alongside striking), but when he faces opponents with decent takedown defence his standup suddenly exposes itself as unfortunately a bit limited. Despite that, he’s tough, gritty and has been historically pretty durable against some higher-level finishers.
Joe Pyfer is the much more dangerous striker here, and if this one is purely a 25-minute kickboxing affair then I assume we would have to favour him. Unfortunately there are quite a few unknowns about Pyfer that leave significant gaps when unpicking the previous paragraph – namely in his wrestling defence and overall cardio. Pyfer hasn’t faced a takedown in the UFC yet, which means we have to make assumptions about whether or not Hermansson will have any success there – he does come from a wrestling background so many assume he will be fine, but I need the eye test to have any confidence. He also hasn’t been in a UFC fight that’s lasted over 1.5 rounds, meaning we have to make assumptions about his cardio (as this is a potential five round affair against a pretty durable guy who will test his gas tank across the different areas of MMA).
As I said in the opening paragraph, this is the frustrating thing about the UFC brass protecting their assets and not testing them fully before they step up. There could be some serious, serious value on Hermansson here…but we’ll only find out when one man gets his arm raised. It is however clear to see that the line on Pyfer is obviously juiced, as he’s one of the UFC’s favourite prospects at the moment and is the far more popular and exciting fighter than journeyman Jack. The books know that, so they’re making you pay a premium for the guess work. Easy pass for me.
Prop wise, I’d be interested to see where the books line the Over for this fight. Hermansson is usually very durable, and has been the distance in four of his last five fights at this level (also the one exception against Dolidze was a very low percentage outcome). Pyfer, on the other hand, has been flatlining everybody…so there’s a potential the books put too much stock into the latter. We’ll see.
How I line this fight: Impossible to say but therefore closer than it currently is.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Dan Ige v Andre Fili
Dan Ige’s career has been such a strange one. His competition has either been so high level or very low level, I honestly don’t know how good he is, even after all this time. His first four wins in the UFC were against nobodies, then he beat the flakey Mirsad Bektic, and suddenly he’s locked in to being an established top 15er that fights nothing but killers. Literally all of his losses in the last four years have been against the cream of the crop, whilst his wins have come when he’s taken a step down from that (Tucker, Damon Jackson, Nate Landwehr). I assume it’s fair to conclude that he’s one of those fringe top 15 guys that’s too good to not be ranked, but not good enough to be ranked above 10th.
Contrary to that though, we know what his skills and weaknesses are inside the cage! He’s a decently well-rounded guy with power, but bad takedown defence, so instantly you have to consider how that matches up against Andre Fili. Fili’s been a journeyman in the UFC, but it definitely feels like he’s taking the slow route on his career descent. Losses to Nathaniel Wood and Joanderson Brito kind of demonstrate that, whilst wins against Lucas Almeida, Bill Algeo and Daniel Pineda (NC but you know what I mean) show that he’s still capable and powerful enough to be taken seriously. I would however argue that all of those names are inferior to Ige.
Fili averages 2.19 takedowns completed in his UFC career, but he’s definitely evolved his style to rely on them less in recent years, unless a particular opponent warrants it (like Charles Jourdain). You can easily argue that Dan Ige does warrant it, given the narrative, but Fili’s still a bit of a gamer that’ll likely be keen to have a good old scrap with an equally game opponent, instead of strategizing too hard. Even so, I don’t know that Fili’s a good enough top control grappler to actually hold Ige down for 15 minutes. It’s obviously a flaw of his, but a flaw that’s only been exploited by those who have dedicated their careers to grappling like Bryce Mitchell, Movsar Evloev and Korean Zombie. I just struggle to see Fili winning via wet blanket, with nothing on the return from Ige.
Therefore it’s the striking realms where this one is going to be won and lost I think…and to me that favours Ige. Against the tougher competition, he’s managed the better offence/defence metrics, is more durable, and conveniently hits harder too. There’s also the argument that his cardio should be in better shape given Fili’s stepping in on short notice. All signs just seem to slightly towards his side.
So I was surprised to see him only priced at -150 when this line opened – I just thought it should have been more significant in his favour, around -200, given the superiority and Fili’s likely inability to capitalise on his area of weakness. I jumped on for two units as a result, and the market has since agreed with me!
How I line this fight: Dan Ige -200 (67%), Ande Fili +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: 2u Dan Ige to Win (-150)
Prop leans: None
Brad Tavares v Gregory Rodrigues
Very intriguing matchmaking for the fan, but shit matchmaking for the bettor.
Brad Tavares has been on an unfortunate downwards swing in the last few years, which I don’t really know why when he’s only 36 years old (obviously that’s old for an athlete but not career capitulation age at 185lbs really) and hasn’t really had a history of absorbing major damage/KOs. He’s failed to look good in wins against the ghost of Chris Weidman and Omari Akhmedov, and looked mediocre in a loss to the shit version of Dricus du Plessis, as well as getting sent to the shadow realm by Bruno Silva. None of those names are fighters I rate (at the time Brad faced them), so it speaks to the decline that Tavares gone through in recent years.
Gregory Rodrigues on the other hand is a fighter that I personally believe has a chin that is dusted beyond repair. We may have only seen him get KO’d in the UFC once (by Brunno Ferreira), but he’s been so lucky to survive the dangerous moments he’s been in involved in. Since the KO loss, he relied on his wrestling and grappling much more in his win over Denis Tiuliulin (but with it being such a glaring weakness of the Russian’s, he might have just gone there anyway). His top control is pretty high level when he can flatten out his opponent.
That’s unfortunately where this one becomes a shit fight for the bettors though, because Brad Tavares has the best takedown defence in UFC history (82% across 23 fights is absolutely fucking insane, no one has kept it consistent like Brad has). I don’t think I’d even necessarily trust Khabib to land takedowns on him. So I definitely cannot trust Gregory Rodrigues to do so (if you want an actual serious comparison, Antonio Carlos Junior is a more recent example of a grappler that got completely stifled by Tavares). Without takedowns to rely on, you’re looking at a striking fight between these two, which absolutely does not warrant the current betting line in my opinion, as I see it as a pretty 50/50 affair in that case.
To make this one even more frustrating from a betting perspective though, we can’t even capitalise on Brad forcing the chinny Rodrigues to strike, because unfortunately Tavares is a very pillow fisted fighter that I couldn’t trust to test that chin.
So in summary, both guys have their flaws, but neither guy has proven capable enough at possessing the skillset that’s going to test them (IE, Rodrigues’ wrestling isn’t elite, and Tavares isn’t a hard enough hitter). I still give the overall advantage to Robocop though, given he’s in a much more capable spot in his career and isn’t a bad striker by any stretch, but this line is still very off in my opinion. No bet from me though, hopefully I’ve said enough negative stuff about Tavares to explain why I won’t take the shot on him. My philosophy with underdogs this year is that I won’t bet them if I don’t outright think they should be favoured. Can’t blame you if you want to take the shot on him though.
How I line this fight: Brad Tavares +137 (42%), Gregory Rodrigues -137 (58%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Rodolfo Vieira v Armen Petrosyan
I had a bet on this fight when it was initially booked on the Lewis vs Almeida card last year, and the breakdown I wrote for it was probably the longest and most detailed I’ve ever written. Nothing about my opinion has changed, so I’ve placed the same bet again and copy-pasted the breakdown for you:
“An interesting fight. We all know what we’re getting from Rodolfo Vieira, he’s a one-dimensional BJJ wizard that has already been humbled by Anthony Hernandez, which I think was actually a really good thing for him and his career! He’s come back with improved cardio and a more patient approach. He now realises he can’t just bumrush people and make them tap. He got very lucky in his last fight against Cody Brundage though, with the latter showing the fight IQ of a lamppost and pulling guard for a guillotine against a BJJ ace, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when he had Rodolfo in all kinds of trouble.
Armen Petrosyan is a pure kickboxer, and will obviously have all kinds of advantages on the feet. However, statistically he’s got pretty shocking takedown defence, having been taken down on 12 occasions in his first 4 DWCS/UFC fights (including against Gregory Rodrigues, Caio Borralho and AJ Dobson). It feels as if that statistic is the key player in deciding the betting line here, because I don’t think Vieira’s demonstrated enough of a skillset from his own merit to justify being a minus money pricetag at a UFC level (aside from his high-level submissions, of course…but you need other skills to even make those accessible)
There’s a big asterisk to Armen’s takedown defence statistic though – the figures don’t contextualise Petrosyan’s get ups and scrambling ability as soon as he hits the mat. I went and re-watched every single time Petrosyan was forced to the mat in the aforementioned four fights, and here’s the summary:
- AJ Dobson got three takedowns. He abandoned one and Petrosyan used the fence to get back to his feet instantly with the other two. Three takedowns that had absolutely no impact on the fight and less than 30 seconds in combined top control.
- Caio Borralho had the most success, capitalising on back takes during the scrambles, and also getting full mount. Petrosyan did a great job of staying calm and waiting for his opportunity. Caio definitely got the better of him in the grappling but Petrosyan kept it competitive and took his opportunities to get back to the feet. I am very high on Caio’s wrestling ability though, so this did not surprise me.
- Robocop hit him with a blast double leg, and Petrosyan wall-walked his way back to the feet seconds later. Rodrigues hit two body lock takedowns in the third round, and got the back off two very quick scrambles. Petrosyan was able to defend the Suloev Stretch well, and got back to his feet off the back take. 1 minute 34 seconds of top control for Robocop, the grappling wasn’t a huge factor here (and we saw how effective Robocop’s grappling can be in his recent win over Tiuliulin).
- On DWCS against Kolev, he was taken down by double legs, single legs and a clinch takedown…but used the fence to get back to his feet almost instantly on all three occasions (though he did semi give up his back in the process).
So, to conclude: Petrosyan’s not got very good takedown defence, and he will give up his back in his attempt to get up. BUT, his submission defence looks pretty damn good (surviving multiple back takes from Robocop and Caio Borralho is very, very impressive), and his ability to get back to his feet via the fence is amongst the best I’ve ever seen. In short, he may have been taken down 12 times, but Borralho was the only fighter to actually do anything remotely significant with them in terms of top control time and threatening submission (Robocop had two too but Petrosyan wasn’t really fussed).
Considering how that matches against Vieira…I think it’s therefore a good fight for Petrosyan. Petrosyan’s cardio may not look amazing, but he’s consistently winning round three in fights that mostly include a lot of grappling, so I think it’s safe to say he’ll grow into the fight the longer it lasts, as his cardio is certainly superior to Vieira’s. That’s absolutely huge here, as I think Vieira’s going to need multiple takedowns to get the job done. If he lands one, I’m confident Petrosyan can survive and find his way to the stool or back to the feet. If that’s the case, then how does Vieira look when he has to get his second, or this third, or even his fourth takedown? You see what I mean…
I just think there’s a high likelihood that Rodolfo Vieira gets forced to work too hard in the opening round and gasses here. Couple that with the fact that Petrosyan’s going to be on his bike, landing body kicks and leg kicks the entire time the fight’s on the feet…so he’s going to be investing in the tools that will sap Vieira’s cardio and reduce the explosiveness needed to land said takedowns.
I can understand why this fight is a pick’em if you take that takedown defence stat seriously, but I think it’s a red herring. Armen Petrosyan’s demonstrated that he’s got the skills to negate the one thing Vieira does well here, and if he survives round one I think he's in the driver's seat. I bet him for 1.5u here at +110. I may also have 0.5u on Petrosyan in Rounds 2 or 3 (at +300 or better).
How I line this fight: Rodolfo Vieira +150 (40%), Armen Petrosyan -150 (60%)
Bet or pass: 1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win +110, 0.5u Petrosyan in Rounds 2 or 3 (+463)
Prop leans: See above
Live Betting lean: This favours Petrosyan the longer it lasts. He could lose round 1 but show positive signs in the grappling defence – if so, that’s your cue to bet him.
Michael Johnson v Darrius Flowers
Michael Johnson – one of the most frustrating fighters to watch in MMA history. Heaps of talent that, on his best day, could give some of the division’s best a run for their money. Unfortunately for The Menace, he is a repeat offender when it comes to “lapses in concentration” that have seen him throw away many a dominant start. He’s 2-6 in his last eight fights, but from memory I can remember him looking comfortably superior at the start of at least four of those losses. This has been going on for so long that I honestly think Michael Johnson is unbettable as a favourite in 2024. Probably could have told you that in 2019, really. Furthermore, Johnson is now 36 years old, so he’s firmly in the declining phase of his career, if it wasn’t already obvious. He ALSO just got knocked out in brutal fashion in his last fight (and not for the first time in his career), which adds to the seemingly never ending list of red flags.
He faces 12-6-1 Darrius Flowers, who I’m surprised even got a call up for DWCS considering his record, level of competition, nor actual calibre really warranted it. I’d say I’m also surprised he got signed considering he won off an injury and literally did nothing to impress except defend a triangle…but they’ll sign anyone these days so it’s no shock.
Flowers got the chance to show us what he can really do inside the cage, and to be fair he really took it to Jake Matthews in that opening round, but still got systematically picked apart by the criminally overrated Aussie – who technically finished him twice in that fight! Flowers knows how to cause chaos, but he’s really not very good at distance and he looked absolutely clueless on that mat. It makes me wonder, how would that DWCS fight have gone if he hadn’t gotten the early slam? I reckon he would have probably lost.
So this is one of those really, really frustrating moments as an MMA bettor, because it’s obvious that Michael Johnson on a good day has the potential to dogwalk Darrius Flowers, and that -110 could be crazy value…but gambling on what kind of Michael Johnson is going to show up should be a market in and of itself. Honestly, I would bet 90% of the Lightweight division against Darrius Flowers at -110, but Johnson’s such a flake that I just can’t pull the trigger.
Don’t do it, you’ll only have yourself to blame when he gets put to sleep after a 10-8 winning round. Don’t bet Flowers either, he’s ass and shouldn’t be minus money here at all.
How I line this fight: +100 pick’em is probably right, but Michael Johnson on a good day is at least -200
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Trevin Giles v Carlos Prates
Jesus, how many flakes can they put on one card!? Trevin Giles is another notorious fighter who can’t stop the wheels from falling off, despite a strong start. Against both Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert (and arguably even against DDP), he was seemingly two rounds up and in cruise control, before throwing the fights away with lapses of judgement. In other instances, he shows up gunshy and just refuses to throw much offence. Officer Giles gets clowned a lot by the MMA fanbase (most likely due to the robbery he pulled off against everyone’s favourite coach at the time, James Krause). I’ve always held Giles in higher regard than most, as I genuinely think he has one of the best jabs in all of the UFC, and when he starts using it with confidence he can be a hard guy to look good against. I last bet on Giles to beat Gabriel Bonfim, which doesn’t seem so crazy in hindsight now, does it!? (don’t worry, Dalby got me my money back).
Giles faces Carlos Prates here, a physically imposing striker (length wise, not mass) with finishing intent with almost every strike he throws. Really enjoyed his style when watching the DWCS fight, with the way he forces opponents back and keeps them under pressure with the firepower. I think that’s a kind of style that Trevin Giles will really struggle with, as he’s a fighter that likes to maintain range to work the jab with a karate-style stance. Yes that means he’ll have the lightfootedness to be evasive against Prates’ suffocating volume and forward marching, but can you really see Giles pulling off an evasive Wonderboy performance? Especially when he’s matched for reach and sometimes can’t stop himself from crashing the pocket and going crazy (see DPP finish).
As usual I am hesitant to really trust DWCS fighters making their debut, and I do believe that Giles is better as a striker than people give him credit for, so I do think this line is a little bit wide…but just like with Johnson, I couldn’t trust Giles with my money so will likely be passing on this fight. It’s more of an opportunity for us to learn more about Prates and see how he handles a demanding task in his UFC debut.
How I line this fight: Trevin Giles +175 (37%), Carlos Prates -175 (63%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: Prates ITD would appeal at the right price, but Giles has been finished too often for there to be any value there, I would imagine.
Loma Lookboonmee v Bruna Brasil
Really simple one that I won’t spend many words on. Loma Lookboonmee is a fighter I’ve had a good record betting on in her career, but she’s an Atomweight that’s very one dimensional. Don’t get me wrong, she’s improving her game, and seeing her take down and submit Elise Reed was as hilarious as it was admirable. But, you can’t deny that size is something than can trump skill, especially in WMMA. Therefore, you have to be careful with the spots you choose to trust her in.
She’s -225 here. Against Bruna Brasil, who is five inches taller…I’m less keen. Even less so when you consider Brasil has landed 2+ takedowns in two of her three UFC/DWCS fights, indicating she can actually weaponise the size advantage with grappling. I can’t remember when we last saw Loma on her back but given her background is in pure striking I worry it might still not be a pretty sight to see her stuck on bottom.
Is Loma the better fighter skill wise? Absolutely, but differentiating yourself as a superior striker when you have no power at WMMA level certainly isn’t the meta to begin with. That’s backed up by the fact she’s dropped rounds in almost all of her wins. A few twists to the tale and suddenly those are losses. Basically, avoid Loma at this price. Not saying there’s definitely value on Bruna, but I’d rather be on the dog if you forced me to bet.
How I line this fight: Loma Lookboonmee -150 (60%), Bruna Brasil +150 (40%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Jeremiah Wells v Max Griffin
Jeremiah Wells is a weird one, man. He’s got that pre-2023 Dricus Du Plessis style of not actually appearing to be very good, but somehow just bulldozing his way to a win. The writing has been on the wall for some time, even Matthew Semelsberger nearly got the better of him…but then Carlston Harris finally did it, and I don’t think many people actually pulled off the fade on a very fadeable guy, which is annoying.
I just think the betting line is a bit weird here. Wells has capitalised on some fortunate matchmaking in my opinion. Alves was/is an old man, Mathetha (the artist formally known as Blood Diamond) is one of the worst UFC fighters of all time, McGhee turned chinny just before he fought Wells and got caught early, and Semelsberger should have absolutely have gotten the win over Wells. It’s a pretty easy 4-0 record to have built, by modern UFC standards. In reality, the only thing I really see from Wells is pure strength, which shows itself in very good top control, decent scramble management and sheer punching power.
Max Griffin is a fighter I’ve often had positive things to say about. He’s well-rounded, strikes sensibly, isn’t atrocious anywhere, and also has some sneaky power. He’s the much more diverse and technically sound fighter of the two here, he’s the much more experienced, and he’s never really been outgrappled by an opponent across 15, aside from Colby Covington. That Colby fight was the only time he’s ever been finished as well…He just seems like a reliable veteran that isn’t on the decline yet. I’m definitely in the business of fading Jeremiah Wells, and I’ve also been someone that’s believed in Max Griffin (I think I bet him in his treble of wins over Condit, Kenan and Brahimaj). Therefore, I am very keen on this +170 line I’m seeing on Griffin here.
Many will point to the takedown defence of Griffin at just 69% and use it as a means of justifying Wells’ pricetag, but a lot of that metric is skewed by the loss to Covington, and elsewhere his takedown defence has looked solid on tape. Not only that, but his get ups have been solid too. In fact, from combing through every time Griffin has been taken down in his UFC career, the only time an opponent managed to secure significant top control time was against Neil Magny and Cowboy Oliveira, both in round three.
I just don’t think Wells is the kind of fighter that justifies this kind of pricetag, when his skillset is limited and so much of it relies on him using nothing but brute force. Across the course of the fight, Griffin can invest in his jab, movement, and leg kicks to do more damage, and his defensive wrestling can prevent Wells from having much success on the feet.
I think there’s an argument to be made that this one should be a pick’em, and I wouldn’t even think it crazy if someone suggested Griffin should be favoured slightly. With that in mind, I bet 1.5u on Griffin to win at +170 here.
How I line this fight: Max Griffin +100 (50%), Jeremiah Wells +100 (50%)
Bet or pass: 1.5u Max Griffin to Win (+170)
Prop leans: None
Daniel Marcos v Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng has had six fights in the UFC now, but he’s gotten wins over Cameron Else, Jay Perrin and Johnny Munoz Jr…very fortunate matchmaking for a fighter with EIGHT regional scene losses. He’s really not very good.
I also just don’t like what the Mongolian fighter brings to the cage. His stance is so straight, planted, and rigid that it’s so obvious that an evasive kicker or straight puncher will pick him apart at range. He’s clearly got a bit of power to him, but once you take away his ability to power up a heavy shot at boxing range, I really think he has nothing in terms of a minute-by-minute perspective.
Daniel Marcos was a fighter we were all really excited about when he made his UFC debut, putting on a very stylish performance against Saimon Oliveira (I bet him as a +100 underdog there I think). Unfortunately, with the hype train starting to pick up traction, he squeaked by a win over the very complicated Davey Grant – a fight many thought he lost. I’ve always given Grant shit for being a hard nosed and awkward fighter that literally isn’t overly good at anything, but I can appreciate that makes him a very tricky guy to deal with (considering Grant has wins over some names he has no business beating like Chito and Jonathan Martinez, I think that’s a fair assessment).
This is a buy low spot for Marcos, I think. When a fighter underperforms as a favourite and gives the parlay squares a mild heart attack, you can often get a reduced price on them next time. Stylistically, Marcos has got a gift of a fight in front of him, and I think this one kind of ends up looking like Chris Gutierrez vs Alatengheili from a few months ago – where one guy is the more diverse and movement based fighter, and they’re able to use range-based strikes to pepper their opponent whilst they swing at thin air. I just see this as being a showcase of Marcos to demonstrate his slick striking against a guy who is a couple of levels below on the feet.
-188 wasn’t steep enough for Marcos, in my opinion. I’d have said he should be -300 at least here, so I played him for 4u, as well as for a further 1u in a parlay with Devin Clark.
How I line this fight: Daniel Marcos -300 (75%), Aoriqileng +300 (25%)
Bet or pass: 4u Daniel Marcos to Win (-188), 1u Daniel Marcos + Devin Clark Both to Win (+130)
Prop leans: None
Devin Clark v Marcin Prachnio
If you’re a casual bettor who only bets parlays, or a bloodthirsty MMA casual who thinks grappling is too homoerotic for you to watch, then you’ll hate Devin Clark. However, if you can appreciate the fine art of early 2010s MMA wrestling, or if you’re a smart bettor, then Devin Clark is one of the boys.
If you’re a fellow shrewdy, then the casuals’ loss is actually our gain, because I genuinely believe the books misprice Devin Clark on purpose because they know how unpopular he is. He is NEVER going to be red on the books, the majority of money probably gets spent fading him out of hatred and lack of respect for his boring style.
I’m not saying Devin is THAT good of a fighter, but the books never seem to respect his ability to find his very reliable path to victory – Survive the power, elongate the fight and win via cage pushing and takedowns. He did it against Menifield, Jung, Knight and Stosic, all whilst massively, massively outperforming his price tag (+2XX dogs against Jung and Menifield, pick’em to Stosic and just -175 against Knight).
He faces Marcin Prachnio this time. The very same Marcin Prachnio that for some time held the title of “worst UFC fighter on the roster” before Dana nosedived the talentpool with Contender Series bums. Prachnio’s not really very good at anything. He’s not no power, no process, and no grit. Any respectable LHW he has fought has pretty much laughed in his face and walked through him inside two rounds.
Prachnio does have three wins in the UFC though, but two of those are incredibly fortunate opportunities where his opponents shat the bed and mentally folded to the occasion. Khalil Rountree lost to Marcin when he was in the midst of the flakey chapter in his career, and William Knight got spooked and landed just eight significant strikes from just 33 thrown in a 15-minute bout (I do question how you don’t manage to finish a fighter who isn’t threatening you, but oh well). The other win came against Ike Villanueva, who was awful.
I’ve said enough damning things about Prachnio’s UFC record, but that’s not even the reason I’m betting Clark heavy here – it’s stylistically a terrible matchup for Marcin and stylistically a gift for Devin. Clark wants to wrestle, and he struggles to make that work against hard hitting opponents who either finish him, or stop his advances in their tracks with power (and even then it doesn’t always work). Marcin has finished one opponent since 2018, and it was a body kick to the fat and unathletic Villanueva. Other than that, he doesn’t even have a knockdown to his name in the UFC.
So Marcin’s not got the ideal style to beat Devin, but what about the reverse? Well we obviously know that Devin’s not much of a one-punch KO artist, but Prachnio’s last two losses saw him getting competently outgrappled by Philipe Lins and Vitor Petrino, who both landed four takedowns on him. Considering I currently think Clark’s a better wrestler than those two…I think he’s got a clear route to a win here.
In summary, Clark’s not amazing but his 15 minute performance is usually a tricky one to beat, unless you’ve got power to hurt him and halt his enthusiasm. I don’t think Prachnio has that at all, so I’m sure Clark has an open lane to put in a very Devin Clark-ish performance, and likely win another decision. At -175, I think there’s clear value here, so I’ve bet him for 4u. Aggressive, but that kind of style is working well for me at the moment. I also feel really confident in both spots here, so I parlay’d them for another 1u, making them both max bets.
How I line this fight: Devin Clark -250 (71%), Marcin Prachnio +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: 4u Devin Clark to Win (-175), 1u Devin Clark + Daniel Marcos both to Win (+135)
Prop leans: Clark by Decision, I guess. Unlikely you get anything near a good price though.
Ihor Potieria v Robert Bryczek
Very quick ramblings here. I did a bit of tape on Bryczek for the Duraev fight, and I identified him as a guy who THROWS HEAT going forward, but is a bit hopeless when he’s on the back foot. He also had pretty shocking cardio when forced to grapple, so I kind of understood why Duraev was a slight favourite.
I’ve not seen a betting line for this one but I expect Potieria to be an underdog up to about +175. He’s not a hard enough hitter or commanding enough to be able to hold his own against the firepower of the debutant here, I don’t think. Although, if Ihor drags the fight out late he could turn it around, so it’s not hopeless for him. All in all, a very low confidence affair that I very likely won’t have any betting interest on, unless the line is wild.
How I line this fight: No idea
Bet or pass: No betting lines out yet
Prop leans: Bryczek by KO is obviously where I’m going to look first, but I assume the books are wise to it.
Apologies, but I’ve got no strong opinions on Pauga v Guskov, and I don’t know a thing about Bolaji Oki or Hyder Amil…So I’m not going to even both wasting anyone’s time writing stuff up for those. I’ve already moved on to next week’s card by this point, and I have enough bets on this card. Sorry but there’s a UFC event every week for like four months or something so gotta cut corners when I can.
Bets
2u Dan Ige to Win (-150)
1u Dan Ige to Win by KO/DEC (-150)
1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win (+110)
0.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win in Rounds 2 or 3 (+463)
1.5u Max Griffin to Win (+170)
4u Daniel Marcos to Win (-188)
4u Devin Clark to Win (-175)
1u Daniel Marcos + Devin Clark Both to Win (+135)
1u Amil v Garcia FDGTD (+150)
0.5u Hyder Amil ITD (+300)
0.2u Hyder Amil to Win by Submission (+1400)
0.2u Hyder Amil to Win in Rounds 2/3 (+585)
0.1u Hyder Amil to Win by Submission in Rounds 2/3 (+2173)
Parlay Pieces: Dan Ige, Daniel Marcos, Devin Clark
Dog of the week: Max Griffin
Future Bets
3u Miranda Maverick to Win (-150)
1u Ian Garry to Win by Decision (+150 or better)
5u Daniel Zellhuber to Win (-225)
1.5u Gilbert Burns to Win (-135 or better)
2u Sean O’Malley to Win (-188)
4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
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2024 - Staked: 41.95u, Profit/Loss: 4.46u, ROI: 10.62%
No podcast this week as I wasn’t able to find the time to edit/record it. Apologies, folks.
I do all my written breakdowns and podcast for free, which probably takes about 15 hours work in total every week. I love bringing the content to you guys and my primary motivation is to make this subreddit better understand gambling, and I also think this information should be freely available to try and make everyone more knowledgeable. Whilst I don’t and won’t charge anything for the stuff I put out, the following link is available if you were feeling generous enough to tip me for my work: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/SideswipeMMA
As always, scroll down for UFC Vegas 86 Breakdowns. The following is just a recap of last event’s results.
UFC Vegas 85 (PREVIOUS CARD)
Staked: 17.95u
Profit/Loss: +1.76u
ROI: 9.81%
Parlay Suggestions: 4-1
Dog of the Week: Drew Dober ❌
Not a great event for me really. I put myself in a great position with the Randy Brown and Natalia Silva parlays, but losses on a couple of props kind of ate into that. I was happy with the Stoliarenko submission in R1 play as I still think it had serious value, and I also thin Dober outperformed his price tag, he was just let down by fight IQ. Definitely time to re-calibrate my opinion on Charles Radtke, though!
✅2u Nassourdine Imavov to Win at -150 (won +1.34u)
❌ 1.5u Drew Dober to Win at +163
❌ 0.5u Drew Dober to Win by TKO/KO at +220
✅ 2u Randy Brown to Win at -130 (won +1.6u) (parlay with Lainesse/Patterson Under 2.5 Rounds ✅)
✅ 3u Natalia Silva to Win at -120 (won +2.49u) (parlay with Jasmine Jasudavicius ✅)
✅ 1u Randy Brown & Natalia Silva to Win at +100 (won +1u)
❌ 2u Gilbert Urbina to Win at -175
✅ 0.5u Molly McCann to Win ITD at +260 (won +1.3u)
❌ 1.5u Azat Maksum to Win by Decision at +116
❌ 1u Julija Stoliarenko Win by Submission in Round 1 at +600
✅ 2u Marquel Mederos to Win at -137 (won +1.48u)
❌ 0.7u Trixie
❌ 0.25u Parlay Pieces (Imavov, Brown, Silva, Urbina, Mederos) at +833
UFC Vegas 86
Yay…the Apex…again. And this time with a fuck tonne of debutants! You should know by now that I am not usually keen on getting involved with betting debutant fights, as the information we get in preparation has to be called ‘low confidence’. I did get stuck into tape with the first few bouts involving debutants/guys with limited UFC experience, but all it did was confirm that belief and make me feel like I was wasting my time. Given that there’s a tonne of lines out for the next few cards, I was more interested in drawing my attention there, and a busy end to the week in my personal life meant that I barely even scratched the surface on some of these debutant bouts. Unfortunately, that also meant I had to skip on the podcast this week too. Apologies.
Let’s get into it.
Jack Hermansson v Joe Pyfer
Finally, a competent opponent for Joe Pyfer. It can be a bit painful sometimes watching someone that’s clearly being angled as a super prospect being given small, insignificant steps up in competition as they build their record, but at least it can be a profitable angle as a bettor! If you believed in Joe Pyfer and bet him ITD every time, you’d be doing pretty well for yourself right now.
Jack Hermansson is an interesting step up in competition, because he’s pretty damn well-rounded in all areas of MMA. He’s a Jack (ha) of all trades, but very much a master of none. In recent fights he’s soundly looked the better fighter than the likes of Roman Dolidze (yes he lost but statement is true) , Edmen Shahbazyan, and Chris Curtis, but has also been shut out by Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori. In short, Jack’s a very competent minute winner if he can use his complete game (IE takedowns and top control alongside striking), but when he faces opponents with decent takedown defence his standup suddenly exposes itself as unfortunately a bit limited. Despite that, he’s tough, gritty and has been historically pretty durable against some higher-level finishers.
Joe Pyfer is the much more dangerous striker here, and if this one is purely a 25-minute kickboxing affair then I assume we would have to favour him. Unfortunately there are quite a few unknowns about Pyfer that leave significant gaps when unpicking the previous paragraph – namely in his wrestling defence and overall cardio. Pyfer hasn’t faced a takedown in the UFC yet, which means we have to make assumptions about whether or not Hermansson will have any success there – he does come from a wrestling background so many assume he will be fine, but I need the eye test to have any confidence. He also hasn’t been in a UFC fight that’s lasted over 1.5 rounds, meaning we have to make assumptions about his cardio (as this is a potential five round affair against a pretty durable guy who will test his gas tank across the different areas of MMA).
As I said in the opening paragraph, this is the frustrating thing about the UFC brass protecting their assets and not testing them fully before they step up. There could be some serious, serious value on Hermansson here…but we’ll only find out when one man gets his arm raised. It is however clear to see that the line on Pyfer is obviously juiced, as he’s one of the UFC’s favourite prospects at the moment and is the far more popular and exciting fighter than journeyman Jack. The books know that, so they’re making you pay a premium for the guess work. Easy pass for me.
Prop wise, I’d be interested to see where the books line the Over for this fight. Hermansson is usually very durable, and has been the distance in four of his last five fights at this level (also the one exception against Dolidze was a very low percentage outcome). Pyfer, on the other hand, has been flatlining everybody…so there’s a potential the books put too much stock into the latter. We’ll see.
How I line this fight: Impossible to say but therefore closer than it currently is.
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Dan Ige v Andre Fili
Dan Ige’s career has been such a strange one. His competition has either been so high level or very low level, I honestly don’t know how good he is, even after all this time. His first four wins in the UFC were against nobodies, then he beat the flakey Mirsad Bektic, and suddenly he’s locked in to being an established top 15er that fights nothing but killers. Literally all of his losses in the last four years have been against the cream of the crop, whilst his wins have come when he’s taken a step down from that (Tucker, Damon Jackson, Nate Landwehr). I assume it’s fair to conclude that he’s one of those fringe top 15 guys that’s too good to not be ranked, but not good enough to be ranked above 10th.
Contrary to that though, we know what his skills and weaknesses are inside the cage! He’s a decently well-rounded guy with power, but bad takedown defence, so instantly you have to consider how that matches up against Andre Fili. Fili’s been a journeyman in the UFC, but it definitely feels like he’s taking the slow route on his career descent. Losses to Nathaniel Wood and Joanderson Brito kind of demonstrate that, whilst wins against Lucas Almeida, Bill Algeo and Daniel Pineda (NC but you know what I mean) show that he’s still capable and powerful enough to be taken seriously. I would however argue that all of those names are inferior to Ige.
Fili averages 2.19 takedowns completed in his UFC career, but he’s definitely evolved his style to rely on them less in recent years, unless a particular opponent warrants it (like Charles Jourdain). You can easily argue that Dan Ige does warrant it, given the narrative, but Fili’s still a bit of a gamer that’ll likely be keen to have a good old scrap with an equally game opponent, instead of strategizing too hard. Even so, I don’t know that Fili’s a good enough top control grappler to actually hold Ige down for 15 minutes. It’s obviously a flaw of his, but a flaw that’s only been exploited by those who have dedicated their careers to grappling like Bryce Mitchell, Movsar Evloev and Korean Zombie. I just struggle to see Fili winning via wet blanket, with nothing on the return from Ige.
Therefore it’s the striking realms where this one is going to be won and lost I think…and to me that favours Ige. Against the tougher competition, he’s managed the better offence/defence metrics, is more durable, and conveniently hits harder too. There’s also the argument that his cardio should be in better shape given Fili’s stepping in on short notice. All signs just seem to slightly towards his side.
So I was surprised to see him only priced at -150 when this line opened – I just thought it should have been more significant in his favour, around -200, given the superiority and Fili’s likely inability to capitalise on his area of weakness. I jumped on for two units as a result, and the market has since agreed with me!
How I line this fight: Dan Ige -200 (67%), Ande Fili +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: 2u Dan Ige to Win (-150)
Prop leans: None
Brad Tavares v Gregory Rodrigues
Very intriguing matchmaking for the fan, but shit matchmaking for the bettor.
Brad Tavares has been on an unfortunate downwards swing in the last few years, which I don’t really know why when he’s only 36 years old (obviously that’s old for an athlete but not career capitulation age at 185lbs really) and hasn’t really had a history of absorbing major damage/KOs. He’s failed to look good in wins against the ghost of Chris Weidman and Omari Akhmedov, and looked mediocre in a loss to the shit version of Dricus du Plessis, as well as getting sent to the shadow realm by Bruno Silva. None of those names are fighters I rate (at the time Brad faced them), so it speaks to the decline that Tavares gone through in recent years.
Gregory Rodrigues on the other hand is a fighter that I personally believe has a chin that is dusted beyond repair. We may have only seen him get KO’d in the UFC once (by Brunno Ferreira), but he’s been so lucky to survive the dangerous moments he’s been in involved in. Since the KO loss, he relied on his wrestling and grappling much more in his win over Denis Tiuliulin (but with it being such a glaring weakness of the Russian’s, he might have just gone there anyway). His top control is pretty high level when he can flatten out his opponent.
That’s unfortunately where this one becomes a shit fight for the bettors though, because Brad Tavares has the best takedown defence in UFC history (82% across 23 fights is absolutely fucking insane, no one has kept it consistent like Brad has). I don’t think I’d even necessarily trust Khabib to land takedowns on him. So I definitely cannot trust Gregory Rodrigues to do so (if you want an actual serious comparison, Antonio Carlos Junior is a more recent example of a grappler that got completely stifled by Tavares). Without takedowns to rely on, you’re looking at a striking fight between these two, which absolutely does not warrant the current betting line in my opinion, as I see it as a pretty 50/50 affair in that case.
To make this one even more frustrating from a betting perspective though, we can’t even capitalise on Brad forcing the chinny Rodrigues to strike, because unfortunately Tavares is a very pillow fisted fighter that I couldn’t trust to test that chin.
So in summary, both guys have their flaws, but neither guy has proven capable enough at possessing the skillset that’s going to test them (IE, Rodrigues’ wrestling isn’t elite, and Tavares isn’t a hard enough hitter). I still give the overall advantage to Robocop though, given he’s in a much more capable spot in his career and isn’t a bad striker by any stretch, but this line is still very off in my opinion. No bet from me though, hopefully I’ve said enough negative stuff about Tavares to explain why I won’t take the shot on him. My philosophy with underdogs this year is that I won’t bet them if I don’t outright think they should be favoured. Can’t blame you if you want to take the shot on him though.
How I line this fight: Brad Tavares +137 (42%), Gregory Rodrigues -137 (58%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Rodolfo Vieira v Armen Petrosyan
I had a bet on this fight when it was initially booked on the Lewis vs Almeida card last year, and the breakdown I wrote for it was probably the longest and most detailed I’ve ever written. Nothing about my opinion has changed, so I’ve placed the same bet again and copy-pasted the breakdown for you:
“An interesting fight. We all know what we’re getting from Rodolfo Vieira, he’s a one-dimensional BJJ wizard that has already been humbled by Anthony Hernandez, which I think was actually a really good thing for him and his career! He’s come back with improved cardio and a more patient approach. He now realises he can’t just bumrush people and make them tap. He got very lucky in his last fight against Cody Brundage though, with the latter showing the fight IQ of a lamppost and pulling guard for a guillotine against a BJJ ace, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when he had Rodolfo in all kinds of trouble.
Armen Petrosyan is a pure kickboxer, and will obviously have all kinds of advantages on the feet. However, statistically he’s got pretty shocking takedown defence, having been taken down on 12 occasions in his first 4 DWCS/UFC fights (including against Gregory Rodrigues, Caio Borralho and AJ Dobson). It feels as if that statistic is the key player in deciding the betting line here, because I don’t think Vieira’s demonstrated enough of a skillset from his own merit to justify being a minus money pricetag at a UFC level (aside from his high-level submissions, of course…but you need other skills to even make those accessible)
There’s a big asterisk to Armen’s takedown defence statistic though – the figures don’t contextualise Petrosyan’s get ups and scrambling ability as soon as he hits the mat. I went and re-watched every single time Petrosyan was forced to the mat in the aforementioned four fights, and here’s the summary:
- AJ Dobson got three takedowns. He abandoned one and Petrosyan used the fence to get back to his feet instantly with the other two. Three takedowns that had absolutely no impact on the fight and less than 30 seconds in combined top control.
- Caio Borralho had the most success, capitalising on back takes during the scrambles, and also getting full mount. Petrosyan did a great job of staying calm and waiting for his opportunity. Caio definitely got the better of him in the grappling but Petrosyan kept it competitive and took his opportunities to get back to the feet. I am very high on Caio’s wrestling ability though, so this did not surprise me.
- Robocop hit him with a blast double leg, and Petrosyan wall-walked his way back to the feet seconds later. Rodrigues hit two body lock takedowns in the third round, and got the back off two very quick scrambles. Petrosyan was able to defend the Suloev Stretch well, and got back to his feet off the back take. 1 minute 34 seconds of top control for Robocop, the grappling wasn’t a huge factor here (and we saw how effective Robocop’s grappling can be in his recent win over Tiuliulin).
- On DWCS against Kolev, he was taken down by double legs, single legs and a clinch takedown…but used the fence to get back to his feet almost instantly on all three occasions (though he did semi give up his back in the process).
So, to conclude: Petrosyan’s not got very good takedown defence, and he will give up his back in his attempt to get up. BUT, his submission defence looks pretty damn good (surviving multiple back takes from Robocop and Caio Borralho is very, very impressive), and his ability to get back to his feet via the fence is amongst the best I’ve ever seen. In short, he may have been taken down 12 times, but Borralho was the only fighter to actually do anything remotely significant with them in terms of top control time and threatening submission (Robocop had two too but Petrosyan wasn’t really fussed).
Considering how that matches against Vieira…I think it’s therefore a good fight for Petrosyan. Petrosyan’s cardio may not look amazing, but he’s consistently winning round three in fights that mostly include a lot of grappling, so I think it’s safe to say he’ll grow into the fight the longer it lasts, as his cardio is certainly superior to Vieira’s. That’s absolutely huge here, as I think Vieira’s going to need multiple takedowns to get the job done. If he lands one, I’m confident Petrosyan can survive and find his way to the stool or back to the feet. If that’s the case, then how does Vieira look when he has to get his second, or this third, or even his fourth takedown? You see what I mean…
I just think there’s a high likelihood that Rodolfo Vieira gets forced to work too hard in the opening round and gasses here. Couple that with the fact that Petrosyan’s going to be on his bike, landing body kicks and leg kicks the entire time the fight’s on the feet…so he’s going to be investing in the tools that will sap Vieira’s cardio and reduce the explosiveness needed to land said takedowns.
I can understand why this fight is a pick’em if you take that takedown defence stat seriously, but I think it’s a red herring. Armen Petrosyan’s demonstrated that he’s got the skills to negate the one thing Vieira does well here, and if he survives round one I think he's in the driver's seat. I bet him for 1.5u here at +110. I may also have 0.5u on Petrosyan in Rounds 2 or 3 (at +300 or better).
How I line this fight: Rodolfo Vieira +150 (40%), Armen Petrosyan -150 (60%)
Bet or pass: 1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win +110, 0.5u Petrosyan in Rounds 2 or 3 (+463)
Prop leans: See above
Live Betting lean: This favours Petrosyan the longer it lasts. He could lose round 1 but show positive signs in the grappling defence – if so, that’s your cue to bet him.
Michael Johnson v Darrius Flowers
Michael Johnson – one of the most frustrating fighters to watch in MMA history. Heaps of talent that, on his best day, could give some of the division’s best a run for their money. Unfortunately for The Menace, he is a repeat offender when it comes to “lapses in concentration” that have seen him throw away many a dominant start. He’s 2-6 in his last eight fights, but from memory I can remember him looking comfortably superior at the start of at least four of those losses. This has been going on for so long that I honestly think Michael Johnson is unbettable as a favourite in 2024. Probably could have told you that in 2019, really. Furthermore, Johnson is now 36 years old, so he’s firmly in the declining phase of his career, if it wasn’t already obvious. He ALSO just got knocked out in brutal fashion in his last fight (and not for the first time in his career), which adds to the seemingly never ending list of red flags.
He faces 12-6-1 Darrius Flowers, who I’m surprised even got a call up for DWCS considering his record, level of competition, nor actual calibre really warranted it. I’d say I’m also surprised he got signed considering he won off an injury and literally did nothing to impress except defend a triangle…but they’ll sign anyone these days so it’s no shock.
Flowers got the chance to show us what he can really do inside the cage, and to be fair he really took it to Jake Matthews in that opening round, but still got systematically picked apart by the criminally overrated Aussie – who technically finished him twice in that fight! Flowers knows how to cause chaos, but he’s really not very good at distance and he looked absolutely clueless on that mat. It makes me wonder, how would that DWCS fight have gone if he hadn’t gotten the early slam? I reckon he would have probably lost.
So this is one of those really, really frustrating moments as an MMA bettor, because it’s obvious that Michael Johnson on a good day has the potential to dogwalk Darrius Flowers, and that -110 could be crazy value…but gambling on what kind of Michael Johnson is going to show up should be a market in and of itself. Honestly, I would bet 90% of the Lightweight division against Darrius Flowers at -110, but Johnson’s such a flake that I just can’t pull the trigger.
Don’t do it, you’ll only have yourself to blame when he gets put to sleep after a 10-8 winning round. Don’t bet Flowers either, he’s ass and shouldn’t be minus money here at all.
How I line this fight: +100 pick’em is probably right, but Michael Johnson on a good day is at least -200
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Trevin Giles v Carlos Prates
Jesus, how many flakes can they put on one card!? Trevin Giles is another notorious fighter who can’t stop the wheels from falling off, despite a strong start. Against both Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert (and arguably even against DDP), he was seemingly two rounds up and in cruise control, before throwing the fights away with lapses of judgement. In other instances, he shows up gunshy and just refuses to throw much offence. Officer Giles gets clowned a lot by the MMA fanbase (most likely due to the robbery he pulled off against everyone’s favourite coach at the time, James Krause). I’ve always held Giles in higher regard than most, as I genuinely think he has one of the best jabs in all of the UFC, and when he starts using it with confidence he can be a hard guy to look good against. I last bet on Giles to beat Gabriel Bonfim, which doesn’t seem so crazy in hindsight now, does it!? (don’t worry, Dalby got me my money back).
Giles faces Carlos Prates here, a physically imposing striker (length wise, not mass) with finishing intent with almost every strike he throws. Really enjoyed his style when watching the DWCS fight, with the way he forces opponents back and keeps them under pressure with the firepower. I think that’s a kind of style that Trevin Giles will really struggle with, as he’s a fighter that likes to maintain range to work the jab with a karate-style stance. Yes that means he’ll have the lightfootedness to be evasive against Prates’ suffocating volume and forward marching, but can you really see Giles pulling off an evasive Wonderboy performance? Especially when he’s matched for reach and sometimes can’t stop himself from crashing the pocket and going crazy (see DPP finish).
As usual I am hesitant to really trust DWCS fighters making their debut, and I do believe that Giles is better as a striker than people give him credit for, so I do think this line is a little bit wide…but just like with Johnson, I couldn’t trust Giles with my money so will likely be passing on this fight. It’s more of an opportunity for us to learn more about Prates and see how he handles a demanding task in his UFC debut.
How I line this fight: Trevin Giles +175 (37%), Carlos Prates -175 (63%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: Prates ITD would appeal at the right price, but Giles has been finished too often for there to be any value there, I would imagine.
Loma Lookboonmee v Bruna Brasil
Really simple one that I won’t spend many words on. Loma Lookboonmee is a fighter I’ve had a good record betting on in her career, but she’s an Atomweight that’s very one dimensional. Don’t get me wrong, she’s improving her game, and seeing her take down and submit Elise Reed was as hilarious as it was admirable. But, you can’t deny that size is something than can trump skill, especially in WMMA. Therefore, you have to be careful with the spots you choose to trust her in.
She’s -225 here. Against Bruna Brasil, who is five inches taller…I’m less keen. Even less so when you consider Brasil has landed 2+ takedowns in two of her three UFC/DWCS fights, indicating she can actually weaponise the size advantage with grappling. I can’t remember when we last saw Loma on her back but given her background is in pure striking I worry it might still not be a pretty sight to see her stuck on bottom.
Is Loma the better fighter skill wise? Absolutely, but differentiating yourself as a superior striker when you have no power at WMMA level certainly isn’t the meta to begin with. That’s backed up by the fact she’s dropped rounds in almost all of her wins. A few twists to the tale and suddenly those are losses. Basically, avoid Loma at this price. Not saying there’s definitely value on Bruna, but I’d rather be on the dog if you forced me to bet.
How I line this fight: Loma Lookboonmee -150 (60%), Bruna Brasil +150 (40%)
Bet or pass: Pass
Prop leans: None
Jeremiah Wells v Max Griffin
Jeremiah Wells is a weird one, man. He’s got that pre-2023 Dricus Du Plessis style of not actually appearing to be very good, but somehow just bulldozing his way to a win. The writing has been on the wall for some time, even Matthew Semelsberger nearly got the better of him…but then Carlston Harris finally did it, and I don’t think many people actually pulled off the fade on a very fadeable guy, which is annoying.
I just think the betting line is a bit weird here. Wells has capitalised on some fortunate matchmaking in my opinion. Alves was/is an old man, Mathetha (the artist formally known as Blood Diamond) is one of the worst UFC fighters of all time, McGhee turned chinny just before he fought Wells and got caught early, and Semelsberger should have absolutely have gotten the win over Wells. It’s a pretty easy 4-0 record to have built, by modern UFC standards. In reality, the only thing I really see from Wells is pure strength, which shows itself in very good top control, decent scramble management and sheer punching power.
Max Griffin is a fighter I’ve often had positive things to say about. He’s well-rounded, strikes sensibly, isn’t atrocious anywhere, and also has some sneaky power. He’s the much more diverse and technically sound fighter of the two here, he’s the much more experienced, and he’s never really been outgrappled by an opponent across 15, aside from Colby Covington. That Colby fight was the only time he’s ever been finished as well…He just seems like a reliable veteran that isn’t on the decline yet. I’m definitely in the business of fading Jeremiah Wells, and I’ve also been someone that’s believed in Max Griffin (I think I bet him in his treble of wins over Condit, Kenan and Brahimaj). Therefore, I am very keen on this +170 line I’m seeing on Griffin here.
Many will point to the takedown defence of Griffin at just 69% and use it as a means of justifying Wells’ pricetag, but a lot of that metric is skewed by the loss to Covington, and elsewhere his takedown defence has looked solid on tape. Not only that, but his get ups have been solid too. In fact, from combing through every time Griffin has been taken down in his UFC career, the only time an opponent managed to secure significant top control time was against Neil Magny and Cowboy Oliveira, both in round three.
I just don’t think Wells is the kind of fighter that justifies this kind of pricetag, when his skillset is limited and so much of it relies on him using nothing but brute force. Across the course of the fight, Griffin can invest in his jab, movement, and leg kicks to do more damage, and his defensive wrestling can prevent Wells from having much success on the feet.
I think there’s an argument to be made that this one should be a pick’em, and I wouldn’t even think it crazy if someone suggested Griffin should be favoured slightly. With that in mind, I bet 1.5u on Griffin to win at +170 here.
How I line this fight: Max Griffin +100 (50%), Jeremiah Wells +100 (50%)
Bet or pass: 1.5u Max Griffin to Win (+170)
Prop leans: None
Daniel Marcos v Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng has had six fights in the UFC now, but he’s gotten wins over Cameron Else, Jay Perrin and Johnny Munoz Jr…very fortunate matchmaking for a fighter with EIGHT regional scene losses. He’s really not very good.
I also just don’t like what the Mongolian fighter brings to the cage. His stance is so straight, planted, and rigid that it’s so obvious that an evasive kicker or straight puncher will pick him apart at range. He’s clearly got a bit of power to him, but once you take away his ability to power up a heavy shot at boxing range, I really think he has nothing in terms of a minute-by-minute perspective.
Daniel Marcos was a fighter we were all really excited about when he made his UFC debut, putting on a very stylish performance against Saimon Oliveira (I bet him as a +100 underdog there I think). Unfortunately, with the hype train starting to pick up traction, he squeaked by a win over the very complicated Davey Grant – a fight many thought he lost. I’ve always given Grant shit for being a hard nosed and awkward fighter that literally isn’t overly good at anything, but I can appreciate that makes him a very tricky guy to deal with (considering Grant has wins over some names he has no business beating like Chito and Jonathan Martinez, I think that’s a fair assessment).
This is a buy low spot for Marcos, I think. When a fighter underperforms as a favourite and gives the parlay squares a mild heart attack, you can often get a reduced price on them next time. Stylistically, Marcos has got a gift of a fight in front of him, and I think this one kind of ends up looking like Chris Gutierrez vs Alatengheili from a few months ago – where one guy is the more diverse and movement based fighter, and they’re able to use range-based strikes to pepper their opponent whilst they swing at thin air. I just see this as being a showcase of Marcos to demonstrate his slick striking against a guy who is a couple of levels below on the feet.
-188 wasn’t steep enough for Marcos, in my opinion. I’d have said he should be -300 at least here, so I played him for 4u, as well as for a further 1u in a parlay with Devin Clark.
How I line this fight: Daniel Marcos -300 (75%), Aoriqileng +300 (25%)
Bet or pass: 4u Daniel Marcos to Win (-188), 1u Daniel Marcos + Devin Clark Both to Win (+130)
Prop leans: None
Devin Clark v Marcin Prachnio
If you’re a casual bettor who only bets parlays, or a bloodthirsty MMA casual who thinks grappling is too homoerotic for you to watch, then you’ll hate Devin Clark. However, if you can appreciate the fine art of early 2010s MMA wrestling, or if you’re a smart bettor, then Devin Clark is one of the boys.
If you’re a fellow shrewdy, then the casuals’ loss is actually our gain, because I genuinely believe the books misprice Devin Clark on purpose because they know how unpopular he is. He is NEVER going to be red on the books, the majority of money probably gets spent fading him out of hatred and lack of respect for his boring style.
I’m not saying Devin is THAT good of a fighter, but the books never seem to respect his ability to find his very reliable path to victory – Survive the power, elongate the fight and win via cage pushing and takedowns. He did it against Menifield, Jung, Knight and Stosic, all whilst massively, massively outperforming his price tag (+2XX dogs against Jung and Menifield, pick’em to Stosic and just -175 against Knight).
He faces Marcin Prachnio this time. The very same Marcin Prachnio that for some time held the title of “worst UFC fighter on the roster” before Dana nosedived the talentpool with Contender Series bums. Prachnio’s not really very good at anything. He’s not no power, no process, and no grit. Any respectable LHW he has fought has pretty much laughed in his face and walked through him inside two rounds.
Prachnio does have three wins in the UFC though, but two of those are incredibly fortunate opportunities where his opponents shat the bed and mentally folded to the occasion. Khalil Rountree lost to Marcin when he was in the midst of the flakey chapter in his career, and William Knight got spooked and landed just eight significant strikes from just 33 thrown in a 15-minute bout (I do question how you don’t manage to finish a fighter who isn’t threatening you, but oh well). The other win came against Ike Villanueva, who was awful.
I’ve said enough damning things about Prachnio’s UFC record, but that’s not even the reason I’m betting Clark heavy here – it’s stylistically a terrible matchup for Marcin and stylistically a gift for Devin. Clark wants to wrestle, and he struggles to make that work against hard hitting opponents who either finish him, or stop his advances in their tracks with power (and even then it doesn’t always work). Marcin has finished one opponent since 2018, and it was a body kick to the fat and unathletic Villanueva. Other than that, he doesn’t even have a knockdown to his name in the UFC.
So Marcin’s not got the ideal style to beat Devin, but what about the reverse? Well we obviously know that Devin’s not much of a one-punch KO artist, but Prachnio’s last two losses saw him getting competently outgrappled by Philipe Lins and Vitor Petrino, who both landed four takedowns on him. Considering I currently think Clark’s a better wrestler than those two…I think he’s got a clear route to a win here.
In summary, Clark’s not amazing but his 15 minute performance is usually a tricky one to beat, unless you’ve got power to hurt him and halt his enthusiasm. I don’t think Prachnio has that at all, so I’m sure Clark has an open lane to put in a very Devin Clark-ish performance, and likely win another decision. At -175, I think there’s clear value here, so I’ve bet him for 4u. Aggressive, but that kind of style is working well for me at the moment. I also feel really confident in both spots here, so I parlay’d them for another 1u, making them both max bets.
How I line this fight: Devin Clark -250 (71%), Marcin Prachnio +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: 4u Devin Clark to Win (-175), 1u Devin Clark + Daniel Marcos both to Win (+135)
Prop leans: Clark by Decision, I guess. Unlikely you get anything near a good price though.
Ihor Potieria v Robert Bryczek
Very quick ramblings here. I did a bit of tape on Bryczek for the Duraev fight, and I identified him as a guy who THROWS HEAT going forward, but is a bit hopeless when he’s on the back foot. He also had pretty shocking cardio when forced to grapple, so I kind of understood why Duraev was a slight favourite.
I’ve not seen a betting line for this one but I expect Potieria to be an underdog up to about +175. He’s not a hard enough hitter or commanding enough to be able to hold his own against the firepower of the debutant here, I don’t think. Although, if Ihor drags the fight out late he could turn it around, so it’s not hopeless for him. All in all, a very low confidence affair that I very likely won’t have any betting interest on, unless the line is wild.
How I line this fight: No idea
Bet or pass: No betting lines out yet
Prop leans: Bryczek by KO is obviously where I’m going to look first, but I assume the books are wise to it.
Apologies, but I’ve got no strong opinions on Pauga v Guskov, and I don’t know a thing about Bolaji Oki or Hyder Amil…So I’m not going to even both wasting anyone’s time writing stuff up for those. I’ve already moved on to next week’s card by this point, and I have enough bets on this card. Sorry but there’s a UFC event every week for like four months or something so gotta cut corners when I can.
Bets
2u Dan Ige to Win (-150)
1u Dan Ige to Win by KO/DEC (-150)
1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win (+110)
0.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win in Rounds 2 or 3 (+463)
1.5u Max Griffin to Win (+170)
4u Daniel Marcos to Win (-188)
4u Devin Clark to Win (-175)
1u Daniel Marcos + Devin Clark Both to Win (+135)
1u Amil v Garcia FDGTD (+150)
0.5u Hyder Amil ITD (+300)
0.2u Hyder Amil to Win by Submission (+1400)
0.2u Hyder Amil to Win in Rounds 2/3 (+585)
0.1u Hyder Amil to Win by Submission in Rounds 2/3 (+2173)
Parlay Pieces: Dan Ige, Daniel Marcos, Devin Clark
Dog of the week: Max Griffin
Future Bets
3u Miranda Maverick to Win (-150)
1u Ian Garry to Win by Decision (+150 or better)
5u Daniel Zellhuber to Win (-225)
1.5u Gilbert Burns to Win (-135 or better)
2u Sean O’Malley to Win (-188)
4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
2024.02.04 02:02 BakersfieldFTF Memphis lives in Bakersfield: MEMPHIS at Stars
Stars Theatre Restaurant’s four week run into MEMPHIS: the musical is in week two; and it is an absolute treat to see. A story about music, love, race, and the struggle to achieve your dreams. MEMPHIS is very much like dark chocolate. It’s sweet, bitter, rich, smooth, and solid. And much like dark chocolate, I imagine it will be much more beloved by some than others.
Welcome to Bakersfield From The Footlights
For Memphis I skipped the dinner option, (BBQ pork ribs, fried catfish, vegetarian spaghetti, and a chicken BLT salad) though those I spoke to praised the BBQ pork ribs. I did however enjoy the ‘appetizer’ of a burger and an order of fries, as well as a blueberry cheesecake. The burger and fries are always good at Stars and well worth their price, though I admittedly should have gone with the strawberry ice cream instead of the cheesecake.
Stars Theatre uses the largest amount of crew for their shows to my knowledge, we have Shaun Reagle handling the production direction. Gabriel Marmolejo operated the lights and led the technical aspects of the show. He also assisted in set construction along with Swanson, Reagle, Ben Roman, Dave Bryan, Caleb Sawyer\* and Bethany Rowlee who also painted the set with the assistance of Faith Limbencgo*, and Avan Seals*. Costuming was handled by Laura Engel. Finally, Bridget Reyes served as both stage manager and prop master, with Juan Carlos Arellano acting as a stagehand.
The musicians for Memphis are Christopher Anderson on piano. Jason Gridiron and Lavonte Taylor on Reeds, Mike Raney on trumpet, Jeff Arday on guitar, Jay Hicks and Nick Bonner on Bass and Luke Jenkis on drums.
*An interesting thing to note is the amount of crew and assistants who also appear in the cast. One of the greatest things about community theater is the sense of, well, community, and I always enjoy seeing how casts and crews intermingle and offer their talents to each other to make shows run smoothly.
Jediah Woodrow plays Felicia’s overprotective brotheclub owner Delray, a man facing the fears and joys of watching his baby sister rise to fame, while making choices he doesn’t approve of, and his song “That’s My Sister” might have been my favorite performance. E. Lamar plays Gator, a mute bartender who finds his voice and makes sure others find their way. There's always a trick with playing a character who says little to nothing in a show, and Lamar handles the concept beautifully. Ty Halton portray’s Bobby, a nervous janitor with a good head on his shoulders and a hidden talent. He brings to life the nervousness of a man trying to keep his head down and do his job, while noticing everything going on and going wrong around him.
Huey’s stubborn but well meaning mother is played beautifully by Julie Gaines, whose acting range is only surpassed by her incredible reserves of talent. Her character begins the show, and arguably ends it as a bigoted and angry person, however her charisma and comedic timing makes her hard to dislike, and every bit of growth she goes through feels monumental.
Mr. Simmons, a charming but weary radio host, was played by Rob Lang. While a much subtler character is usually easy to forget, Lang seems to know exactly how to emphasize his role and gets some great moments to stand out.
Caley Mayhall portrays the joint roles of Wailin’ Joe and Reverend Hobson. Enough cannot be said about Mahall’s incredible vocal performance in this show. With incredible range, voice control, pitch and power, her voice is astonishing and not to be missed. If I could only listen to one song from the show again, it would be “Scratch My Itch”.
The rest of the cast features Randy Jelmini, Paula Einstein, Ruth Stein, David Villanueva, Troy Fidis, Avan Seals and Caleb Sawyer each playing multiple roles and playing them well, and an ensemble cast featuring Devin Beasley Jr, Payton Butcher, Jordan Espiritu, Michael Hendrix, Isaiah Jefferson, Luke Kratt, Sarah Kratt, Faith Limbengco, Christina Reliford, Clarianne Righetti, Karla Young, and Pamela Sims. This is an incredibly talented group of dancers. In a previous review I had mentioned Beasley’s dancing as the lead in Footloose, and this show proved another playground of movement for him, particularly in his back and forth dance off with Luke Kratt. Speaking of the Kratts, Sarah Kratt, who is to my knowledge the youngest of the cast, takes several moments to shine between her dancing and the few moments of characterization she gets. The entire cast gets several moments to shine, and each feels perfectly placed. Jelmini is as always appropriately grumpy, Butcher is electric in both her dancing and how earnestly she fills every moment on stage. Espiritu, Righetti, Reliford and Seals are delightful and energetic.
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Welcome to Bakersfield From The Footlights
The Venue
Stars Theatre Restaurant is a venue that I very much enjoy. The lounge is a warm and inviting place to meet with friends, grab a drink, or step out onto the patio for some fresh air. The bar offers two signature cocktails per show and sometimes even a unique souvenir glass. (To my knowledge there is no MEMPHIS glass, and admittedly I do wish Stars was a bit more consistent in this aspect) The theater proper is the biggest community theater in Bakersfield with four rows of tables set up for parties of two, four, or eight, and a suite upstairs, which I have never rented personally, but have been told have an incredible view. Stars theater also has the most expensive tickets in Bakersfield, at $50 per ticket for just the show, and $80 per ticket for the show and dinner, so their shows carry greater expectations for the audience.For Memphis I skipped the dinner option, (BBQ pork ribs, fried catfish, vegetarian spaghetti, and a chicken BLT salad) though those I spoke to praised the BBQ pork ribs. I did however enjoy the ‘appetizer’ of a burger and an order of fries, as well as a blueberry cheesecake. The burger and fries are always good at Stars and well worth their price, though I admittedly should have gone with the strawberry ice cream instead of the cheesecake.
The Crew
MEMPHIS was directed by Perrin Swanson, who also tackled the lighting and set design for the show. Unsurprising as Swanson is known and rightly praised for his lighting designs. Praise is also due for Swanson’s directing, which in tandem with his enchanting lighting, made MEMPHIS a visual treat. Ayrian Gridiron served as the Vocal director, and with her direction, the cast beautifully captures the sound of 50’s rock and roll and gospel. Choreography was handled by Nick Ono, who’s work never fails to entertain and dazzle. The dancing of MEMPHIS is vibrant and exciting, with kicks, flips, and expressive movement.Stars Theatre uses the largest amount of crew for their shows to my knowledge, we have Shaun Reagle handling the production direction. Gabriel Marmolejo operated the lights and led the technical aspects of the show. He also assisted in set construction along with Swanson, Reagle, Ben Roman, Dave Bryan, Caleb Sawyer\* and Bethany Rowlee who also painted the set with the assistance of Faith Limbencgo*, and Avan Seals*. Costuming was handled by Laura Engel. Finally, Bridget Reyes served as both stage manager and prop master, with Juan Carlos Arellano acting as a stagehand.
The musicians for Memphis are Christopher Anderson on piano. Jason Gridiron and Lavonte Taylor on Reeds, Mike Raney on trumpet, Jeff Arday on guitar, Jay Hicks and Nick Bonner on Bass and Luke Jenkis on drums.
*An interesting thing to note is the amount of crew and assistants who also appear in the cast. One of the greatest things about community theater is the sense of, well, community, and I always enjoy seeing how casts and crews intermingle and offer their talents to each other to make shows run smoothly.
The Cast
MEMPHIS is brought to life by an incredibly talented and well placed group of performers. Our leads Huey and Felicia were played by Jake Wattenbarger and Avery Gibson respectively. Both actors seem to understand exactly who their characters are. Wattenbarger is fascinating to watch, as Huey’s free spirited desire to do whatever he feels is right begins as refreshing in the first act and becomes destructive in the second. Meanwhile, Gibson brings all the proper excitement and anxiety of a woman trying to achieve her dreams while avoiding the wrong kind of attention.With a beautiful voice, and a lot of reasons to proceed with caution, it’s impossible not to root for her with every fiber of your being.Jediah Woodrow plays Felicia’s overprotective brotheclub owner Delray, a man facing the fears and joys of watching his baby sister rise to fame, while making choices he doesn’t approve of, and his song “That’s My Sister” might have been my favorite performance. E. Lamar plays Gator, a mute bartender who finds his voice and makes sure others find their way. There's always a trick with playing a character who says little to nothing in a show, and Lamar handles the concept beautifully. Ty Halton portray’s Bobby, a nervous janitor with a good head on his shoulders and a hidden talent. He brings to life the nervousness of a man trying to keep his head down and do his job, while noticing everything going on and going wrong around him.
Huey’s stubborn but well meaning mother is played beautifully by Julie Gaines, whose acting range is only surpassed by her incredible reserves of talent. Her character begins the show, and arguably ends it as a bigoted and angry person, however her charisma and comedic timing makes her hard to dislike, and every bit of growth she goes through feels monumental.
Mr. Simmons, a charming but weary radio host, was played by Rob Lang. While a much subtler character is usually easy to forget, Lang seems to know exactly how to emphasize his role and gets some great moments to stand out.
Caley Mayhall portrays the joint roles of Wailin’ Joe and Reverend Hobson. Enough cannot be said about Mahall’s incredible vocal performance in this show. With incredible range, voice control, pitch and power, her voice is astonishing and not to be missed. If I could only listen to one song from the show again, it would be “Scratch My Itch”.
The rest of the cast features Randy Jelmini, Paula Einstein, Ruth Stein, David Villanueva, Troy Fidis, Avan Seals and Caleb Sawyer each playing multiple roles and playing them well, and an ensemble cast featuring Devin Beasley Jr, Payton Butcher, Jordan Espiritu, Michael Hendrix, Isaiah Jefferson, Luke Kratt, Sarah Kratt, Faith Limbengco, Christina Reliford, Clarianne Righetti, Karla Young, and Pamela Sims. This is an incredibly talented group of dancers. In a previous review I had mentioned Beasley’s dancing as the lead in Footloose, and this show proved another playground of movement for him, particularly in his back and forth dance off with Luke Kratt. Speaking of the Kratts, Sarah Kratt, who is to my knowledge the youngest of the cast, takes several moments to shine between her dancing and the few moments of characterization she gets. The entire cast gets several moments to shine, and each feels perfectly placed. Jelmini is as always appropriately grumpy, Butcher is electric in both her dancing and how earnestly she fills every moment on stage. Espiritu, Righetti, Reliford and Seals are delightful and energetic.
The Show
I was absolutely dazzled by MEMPHIS. The show is a visual treat, with a beautiful set, wonderful costumes, and gorgeous choreography. In particular, in the song “Scratch My Itch” the white ensemble seems almost possessed by the choreography, as though they don’t understand the dancing. This isn’t merely a one off gag however; the white dancers are a bit stilted, and take a few songs to start moving in the music as naturally as the black ensemble, which is a brilliant piece of storytelling that Ono has added to the world. During the song “Stand Up” Gibson stands center stage as the lights at her feet shine, creating a massive silhouette on either side of the brick walls that frame the set, in a beautiful image that tells a story all on its own. It flows together well, and tells a wonderful story in a charming and cohesive way.The Issues
MEMPHIS has one rather glaring flaw and one minor flaw. To start with the minor of the two, Mayhall’s character of Reverend Hobson is apparently a male in the script, something that I only know because in a scene discussing the character, Gaines refers to her as ‘him’, which took me out of a powerful moment for a brief moment. A simple flub that may have been accidental, but still caught me off guard. The other issue, much larger and more prevalent: the show’s fight choreography. I wouldn’t call MEMPHIS a violent show per se, but there are several acts of violence throughout the show. The staging of these fights is not bad, however it’s also not believable. It feels like a weird thing to complain about, as the actors are obviously safe, which should be the most important thing. However, the impact is lessened nonetheless.Overall
See MEMPHIS. Full stop. It’s well acted, well directed, well danced, and well worth the price. It is a show I will remember for a very long time. And it will be running at Stars until February 17th.Previous Review: Footloose at The Ovation
Next Review: The Crucible at BCT
2024.01.21 14:36 sideswipe781 Some Betting Previews for the next four cards (& UFC 297 Review) - SideswipeMMA
Lifetime - Staked: 669.1u, Profit/Loss: +35.85u, ROI: 5.36%, Parlay Suggestions: 136-45 Dog of the Week: 10-5
2024 - Staked: 22u, Profit/Loss: 2.5u, ROI: 11.34%
I do all my written breakdowns and podcast for free, which probably takes about 20 hours work in total every week. I love bringing the content to you guys and my primary motivation is to make this subreddit better understand gambling, and I also think this information should be freely available to try and make everyone more knowledgeable. Whilst I don’t and won’t charge anything for the stuff I put out, the following link is available if you were feeling generous enough to tip me for my work: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/SideswipeMMA
Here's a recap of my UFC 297 bets
UFC 297 (PREVIOUS CARD)
Staked: 16.5u
Profit/Loss: +3.39u
ROI: 20.55%
Parlay Suggestions: 4-1
Dog of the Week: Ramon Taveras ✅
The Sideswipe Women’s MMA party continues, with two amazing bets on the Canadian women cashing with absolute ease. Robertson moving from -150 to -300 is the best CLV I have ever gotten, and Jasudavicius was somehow still massive value at -350. Evloev delivered in a close fight, and Ramon Taveras came through as an underdog. It wasn’t all winners though, as Brad Katona put in an underwhelming performance and took a chunk of the profits and crashed the parlay as a result. Just like last week though, I have a couple of cross-event parlays that are now half-way across the line, so UFC Vegas 85 is looking nice already!
Honestly though, the results felt a bit bittersweet for UFC 297, because my reads were so, so sharp that I could have made a lot more money on the card. I correctly identified that Strickland/Du Plessis was a very close fight, suggested Pennington by Decision as a prop, said Malott’s moneyline was ridiculous, said Barriault/Curtis and Woodson/Jourdain were pick’ems, and said there was value on Patterson and Flick too! So basically, if I’d bet anything and everything that I wanted, I think I genuinely would have hit double digits profits really. Looking at those honestly, I think I could have realistically bet Dricus at +125 early (win), Pennington by Decision (win), Barriault decision (value loser), Woodson (win), Patterson submission or moneyline (win), Flick Submission (win). Good result, but what could have been!
Oh well, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, and all that! Full results of bets below.
❌ 1u Mike Malott to Win by Submission & Under 1.5 Rounds at +210
✅ 1u Movsar Evloev to Win at -150 (won +0.67u)
✅ 0.5u Movsar Evloev to Win & Over 2.5 Rounds at -125 (won +0.4u)
❌ 3u Brad Katona to Win at -163
✅ 4u Gillian Robertson to Win at -150 (won +2.68u)
✅ 1u Ramon Taveras to Win at +163 (won +1.63u)
✅✅ 3u Jasmine Jasudavicius & Marcus McGhee both to Win at -125 (won +2.4u)
✅❓ 3u Jasmine Jasudavicius & Natalia Silva both to Win at -120 (rolls on to next event)
✅ 0.5u Jasmine Jasudavicius ITD at +220 (won +1.1u)
✅❓ 2u Lainesse/Patterson Under 2.5 Rounds & Randy Brown to Win at -125 (rolls on to next week)
❌ 1.5u Gordon/Flick Over 1.5 Rounds at -105
❌ 0.5u Gordon/Flick Over 1.5 Rounds at +250
✅ ARB - Malcolm Gordon & Jimmy Flick Money Lines (won +0.42u)
✅✅❌ Trixie – Evloev Decision, Jasudavicius ITD & Gordon/Flick Over 1.5 Rounds (won +0.34u)
❌ 0.25u Parlay Pieces at +548
FUTURE BETS
Now for the good bit - we’ve got a week’s break before we are back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 85: Imavov v Dolidze, but the wonderful oddsmakers have been churning out prices left, right and centre for the first quarter of the year. There’s betting lines for almost every fight between now and UFC 300, which means there’s still a lot of work to be done despite the week off!
Most of the people provide this kind of content on a week-by-week basis, but betting lines are constantly moving, and getting ahead is one of the key things that gives me an edge in this game. I can’t stress just how important it is long term to making sure that you get the best price possible when you want to bet on something, as it ensures you’re squeezing every last bit of value out of a strong read.
We are only two events into this year, but here’s a list of the CLV I’ve already managed so far in 2024.
Joshua Van, bet at -188, closed at -350
Ramon Taveras, bet at +163, closed at +140
Jasmine Jasudavicius, bet at -350, closed at -400
Gillian Robertson, bet at -150, closed at -300
Brad Katona, bet at -175, closed at -225
Movsar Evloev, bet at -150, closed at -200
And I’m sure there will be plenty more to come!
So with that in mind, here are breakdowns for all of the bets I’ve placed so far between now and UFC 300. This post is still a work in progress, as I’ve not done tape on everything between now and then! (I work hard, but no one works THAT hard!). If I find anything else I like in the next seven days, I’ll post it in here (unlikely though as I’ve finished the next card already and want to take a bit of a break).
As always, there’s a bunch of fights I’ve done research for but didn’t end up with a bet for, so if you want my opinion on any fights in the near future that aren’t mentioned here, just ask in the comments and I’ll happily provide some thoughts.
UFC Vegas 85: Imavov v Dolidze
Roman Dolidze v Nassourdine Imavov
I’ve got a good history with both guys here. I’ve a 5-1 record on Dolidze’s fights (only being incorrect in picking Jack Hermansson to beat him), and 4-1 on Imavov fights (losing out on an underdog bet in his loss to Phil Hawes).
Roman Dolidze is very, very overrated in my opinion. I understand that he’s got really good skills on paper, and his BJJ is definitely to be respected, but the guy doesn’t take fights seriously enough and is a pretty average striker outside of knockout power. He’s being overrated due to his performance in the Marvin Vettori fight recently, where he outperformed his price tag and looked competitive against one of the divison’s top 5 (I respected it and was impressed…at the time). Marvin Vettori followed that fight up with an atrocious performance against Jared Cannonier, and I genuinely think Vettori’s suddenly washed, he looked that bad. It Made me re-calibrate my opinions on Dolidze’s performance that night…but it seems the books forgot to do so.
Nassourdine Imavov is kind of suffering the opposite fate at the moment, because he put on a brilliant performance against Chris Cutis last time out, only for an accidental headbutt to rob him of a win and instead give him a ‘no contest’. It really makes me wonder, if the books remembered Vettori is not the top 5 guy we think he is, and they remembered Imavov’s performance against Curtis…what would the line actually be?
Imavov is the more fluent and technical fighter, is the better wrestler, has the superior cardio, and isn’t a bad BJJ player himself. This one is a pretty clear contest of minute winner vs finisher, and I think Imavov wins this one pretty cleanly as long as he stays safe from the power and opportunistic submissions. I was very keen to make this bet with Jack Hermansson back in the day, and for 95% of the fight I was cruising. I know how the fight ended, but if Jack Hermansson can establish himself as the superior fighter against you, then Imavov’s got the potential to embarrass you. The finish Dolidze worked out against Hermansson was a thing of beauty, but I don’t think lightning strikes twice here, so I’ll gladly bet Imavov at -150 for 2u. I still think he’s got the potential to be a top 5 fighter at Middleweight, and I think he could go on to look -300 here in hindsight. Dolidze’s dangerous though, as I learnt against Hermansson, so 2u sounds right because this can’t be TOO high confidence.
How I line this fight: Roman Dolidze +200 (33%), Nassourdine Imavov -200 (66%)
Bet or pass: 2u Nassourdine Imavov to Win (-150)
Prop leans: None
Renato Moicano v Drew Dober
This is a sensational bit of matchmaking. Two fan favourites who know how to have fun and brawl in the cage, but also two guys who have shown inconsistencies and glimpses of frailty in recent years that adds a bit of mystery and uncertainty.
Moicano is clearly the more well-rounded guy, but for as good as a striker as he can look when he’s comfortable, he can absolutely be got at and bossed around if you’ve earnt his respect and he hasn’t earnt yours (see Fiziev, RDA and TKZ fights). Drew Dober’s the more one-dimensional, but that focus is in the striking department, where Dober hits incredibly hard and has speed, volume and athleticism in spades. Moicano really should be looking to wrestle in this one, because he’s the kind of frail striker that will hand the win to a superior one on a platter, whether via damage or a finish. With the intensity that Dober throws with, I just can’t see a world where Moicano stays safe on the feet for long periods, and if they go balls to the wall blow for blow, I only see one guy winning.
So that sounds very much like I’m leaning towards Dober on the Moneyline here, and value wise I definitely am…but Dober’s never really been the best defensive wrestlegrappler, and I have concerns about his ability to stay safe from a dangerous submission threat like Moicano if he finds himself on bottom. Having said that, Dober seems aware of his incapabilities, and instead likes to just lock down position in full guard and explode back to his feet when he can. I can see a great back-taker like Moicano being patient and trapping him with that, but I’d rather Dober remained calmed and composed in the dangerzone than panicking like a fish out of water, so he might actually be alright.
In my mind, a win for Dober looks very similar to the Bobby Green fight, where he gets tagged a fair bit but creates the environment in the second round to land the bombs he needs. I’ve always thought Moicano was a bit of a flake, and someone whose talent as a mixed martial artist doesn’t quite match his lack of grit as a cage fighter, and when the going gets tough he folds (similar to what Charles Oliveira was like pre-COVID run).
So I’m on Dober here. I can see the flaws and I’m not saying it’s a confident play, but I think Drew should be the favourite due to the fact he probably finds his finish easier than Renato does. I saw a small bit of value at a pick’em, but now he’s moved to +110 so I think I’ll have to get involved soon enough. It’ll be a 1u bet on the moneyline when I decide to pull the trigger, with 0.5u on the KO as I don’t see Moicano surviving if they spend enough time on the feet for Dober to win the fight. Haven’t bet it yet but definitely will do.
How I line this fight: Drew Dober -125 (55%), Renato Moicano +125 (45%)
Bet or pass: 1u Drew Dober to Win (+110 or better), 0.5u Drew Dober to Win by TKO/KO
Prop leans: See above
Randy Brown v Muslim Salikhov
Annoyed about this one getting re-booked. I had 7.5u on Brown at -188 and -110 (parlay with Shavkat) before that fight got scrapped at UFC 296. Absolutely hate it when that happens. At least it was Brown who was ill that day and he didn’t fight compromised when I had that much money on him.
Anyway, nothing has changed, I still think there’s a small bit of value on Brown around -230, as I think he should be -300. I therefore parlay’d him for 2u alongside Lainesse/Patterson lasting Under 2.5 Rounds on UFC 297, which has already cashed. I’ve attached my initial breakdown below.
“If you’ve stuck around for a long time you’ll know I think very highly of Randy Brown. I bet him to upset Jack Della Maddalena (I still think he could), I bet him to beat Wellington Turman, and I generally believe he’s a borderline top 15 fighter. He’s well-rounded with a great frame for a Welterweight, and as long as he’s not getting walked down and put under pressure by a hard hitter, it’s difficult to look good against him.
Muslim Salikhov on the other hand, is 39 years old and still painfully one-dimensional. He’s not a bad striker, but he’s just getting slower and more plodding as he gets older. He’s not much of a pressure fighter either, he wants to be at kick-boxing range so he can start utilising his kicks and making reads for counter strikes, and that’s going to benefit the eight-inch reach advantage that the quicker guy in Randy Brown is naturally going to have.
Salikhov also benefitted from not facing particularly good grapplers in his UFC career, as it also hasn’t taken much for some opponents to demonstrate a clear advantage against him on the mat (see the Alex Garcia loss in his debut). He’s also not got particularly good cardio in a medium to high paced 15 minute affair.
He comes into this bout off a unanimous decision (30-27 x2) loss to Nicholas Dalby. I know everyone’s remembering Dalby as the guy who upset the -600 favourite, but Dalby’s not very good! He’s been getting the better of fellow veterans and one-dimensional fighters, not borderline top 15 talent…and he still soundly beat Salikhov.
I just simply think there’s a big difference in athleticism, speed, cardio, diversity and youthfulness here, and it’s all in the favour of Brown. The only advantages I give to Salikhov are in pure power, and he’s not a super scary walk off KO type of fighter anyway.
So yeah, there’s a path to victory for Salikhov, but I think it’s small and doesn’t happen more than 25% of the time in my opinion. I thought Brown should have been about -300 here”.
How I line this fight: Randy Brown -300 (75%), Muslim Salikhov +300 (25%)
Bet or pass: 2u Randy Brown to Win (parlay’d with Lainesse/Patterson U2.5r ✅) (-130)
Prop leans: Brown by Submission would be my longshot suggestion, but I’m not playing it.
Viviane Araujo v Natalia Silva
Pretty easy fight to analyse, this one. Natalia Silva’s probably the most exciting WMMA prospect outside any division’s top five right now, so the price is obviously going to reflect that, as it often does. She’s good for it though, as I’ve thought she had the talent to go all the way to the top five since she made her UFC debut. I bet her as a +200 underdog against Jasudavicius in her debut as well, so I have the receipts!
I’ve also been a Viviane Araujo believer as well, and I bet her in her short notice debut too, where she scored a rare one punch WMMA KO as a massive underdog. Also bet her in her most recent win as an underdog to Jennifer Maia. She’s been a better striker than most of her UFC opponents and, with decent takedown defence to keep things where she wants them, that’s how she’s thrived.
Unfortunately for Vivi, I just don’t think Natalia Silva is inferior to her in any way. Natalia’s a lot lighter on her feet, has the higher volume and the much better defence, and has actually shown to be the more dangerous of the two. She also has the superior cardio, which should play a huge factor is this one goes 15 minutes, as Vivi wins round three at a very low clip which is a huge, huge flaw.
So this is lowkey a nightmare matchup for Vivi Araujo, and I think there’s enough value on the betting line to use Natalia Silva as a parlay piece. I just don’t see how she loses this one unless she has an off night. We’ve seen Araujo have off nights recently, in her underwhelming performances against Amanda Ribas and Alexa Grasso, so I’d be more worried about that happening to her.
I’m very confident in Natalia Silva here, and so I decided to get my business done early and combine here with Jasmine Jasudavicius from the UFC 297 card, for a 3u parlay at -120. Now it’s just a single.
How I line this fight: Viviane Araujo +350 (22%), Natalia Silva -400 (78%)
Bet or pass: 3u Natalia Silva to Win (w/ Jasmine Jasudavicius ✅) -120
Prop leans: None
Gilbert Urbina v Charles Radtke
Well, I think Charles Radtke’s performance against Mike Mathetha (the artist formally known as Blood Diamond) kind of vindicated my negative opinion on him in the build up to that fight. I was not overly impressed by his striking, and I didn’t think his grappling would be good enough to necessarily be relied on or assume he was a lock in that fight. Given he lasted one striking exchange before diving for the double leg, lost one (maybe two!) rounds, landed just 16% of his attempted takedowns, and got outstruck by the insanely overrated striking of Mathetha, I’d say that’s a pretty bad performance against one of the easiest wins in UFC history (seriously who else is that bad of a grappler in the UFC in the last 15 years?)
He faces Gilbert Urbina for his sophomore UFC bout, with Gilbert coming off a very impressive victory over Orion Cosce last time out. Not the most challenging opponent (his one and only UFC win coming against none other than Mike Mathetha, the artist formally known as Blood Diamond), but that’s a demonstration of exactly how you are supposed to handle a lay-up fight. Urbina was in control from the opening seconds and threatened with his striking and grappling, and demonstrated a skillset I think he could easily replicate against Radtke here.
I think Urbina’s got a significant grappling advantage in this fight, and another advantage in just general dangerousness. It also helps that he’s noticeably bigger than Radtke also, which should help him to manage distance and take control of the grappling moments in this fight. However, it’s still somewhat of a lower confidence opinion, as Urbina’s still finding his feet in the UFC and has only really demonstrated his best work against a lower level of competition (The same can certainly be said for Radtke here, but two wrongs don’t make a right in a situation like that).
I was fine with the idea of seeing Urbina at -225 where the early line settled, but for some reason a fair amount of money has come in on Radtke, pushing the line down. I got caught out by the line movement and the best price I could get was -175
How I line this fight: Gilbert Urbina -225 (69%), Charlie Radtke +225 (31%)
Bet or pass: 2u Gilbert Urbina (-175)
Prop leans: None
UFC Vegas 86: Hermansson v Pyfer
Rodolfo Vieira v Armen Petrosyan
I had a bet on this fight when it was initially booked on the Lewis vs Almeida card last year. I had some very strong opinions on it. Nothing has changed, so here’s a copy/paste of the original breakdown:
“An interesting fight. We all know what we’re getting from Rodolfo Vieira, he’s a one-dimensional BJJ wizard that has already been humbled by Anthony Hernandez, which I think was actually a really good thing for him and his career! He’s come back with improved cardio and a more patient approach. He now realises he can’t just bumrush people and make them tap. He got very lucky in his last fight against Cody Brundage though, with the idiot pulling guard for a guillotine against a BJJ ace and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when Cody had Rodolfo in all kinds of trouble.
Armen Petrosyan is a pure kickboxer, and will obviously have all kinds of advantages on the feet. However, statistically he’s got pretty shocking takedown defence, having been taken down on 12 occasions in his first 4 DWCS/UFC fights (including against Gregory Rodrigues, Caio Borralho and AJ Dobson). It feels as if that statistic is the key player in deciding the betting line here, because I don’t think Vieira’s demonstrated enough of a skillset from his own merit to justify being a minus money pricetag at a UFC level (aside from his high level submissions, of course…but you need other skills to even make those work)
There’s a big asterisk to that takedown defence statistic though – the figures don’t contextualise Petrosyan’s get ups and scrambling ability as soon as he hits the mat. I went and re-watched every single time Petrosyan was forced to the mat in the aforementioned 4 fights, and here’s the summary:
- AJ Dobson got three takedowns. He abandoned one and Petrosyan used the fence to get back to his feet instantly with the other two. Three takedowns that had absolutely no impact on the fight and less than 30 seconds in combined top control.
- Caio Borralho had the most success, capitalising on back takes during the scrambles, and also getting full mount. Petrosyan did a great job of staying calm and waiting for his opportunity. Caio definitely got the better of him in the grappling but Petrosyan kept it competitive and took his opportunities to get back to the feet. I am very high on Caio’s wrestling ability though, so this did not surprise me
- Robocop hit him with a blast double leg, and Petrosyan wall-walked his way back to the feet seconds later. Rodrigues hit two body lock takedowns in the third round, and got the back off two very quick scrambles. Petrosyan was able to defend the Suloev Stretch well, and got back to his feet off the back take. 1 minute 34 seconds of top control for Robocop, the grappling wasn’t a huge factor here (and we saw how effective Robocop’s grappling can be in his recent win over Tiuliulin).
- On DWCS against Kolev, he was taken down by double legs, single legs and a clinch takedown…but used the fence to get back to his feet almost instantly on all three occasions (though he did semi give up his back in the process).
So, to conclude: Petrosyan’s not got very good takedown defence, and he will give up his back in his attempt to get up. BUT, his submission defence looks pretty damn good (surviving multiple back takes from Robocop and Caio Borralho is very, very impressive), and his ability to get back to his feet via the fence is amongst the best I’ve ever seen. In short, he may have been taken down 12 times, but Borralho was the only fighter to actually do anything remotely significant with them in terms of top control time and threatening submission (Robocop had two too but Petrosyan wasn’t really fussed).
Considering how that matches against Vieira…I think it’s therefore a good fight for Petrosyan. Petrosyan’s cardio may not look amazing, but he’s consistently winning round three in fights that mostly include a lot of grappling, so I think it’s safe to say he’ll grow into the fight the longer it lasts, as his cardio is certainly superior to Vieira’s. That’s absolutely huge here, as I think Vieira’s going to need multiple takedowns to get the job done. If he lands one, I’m confident Petrosyan can either find the way to the fence or at least let the clock tick down and stay safe, before things continue on the feet again. How does Vieira look when he has to get his second, or this third, or even his fourth? You see what I mean…
I just think there’s a high likelihood that Rodolfo Vieira gets forced to work too hard in the opening round and gasses here. I know the takedown defence is awful, but I was genuinely impressed by Petrosyan’s work underneath Borralho and Robocop, who I think are far more capable of providing a submission threat in MMA (IE, including takedowns and ground control). If Petrosyan can pass that test, I think he should be able to survive the early goings. Also, if you put Petrosyan in the fights that Dustin Stoltzfus and Cody Brundage had with Vieira, I think he wins them comfortably.
Couple that with the fact that Petrosyan’s going to be on his bike, landing body kicks and leg kicks the entire time the fight’s on the feet…so he’s going to be investing in the tools that will sap Vieira’s cardio and reduce the explosiveness needed to land takedowns.
I can understand why this fight is a pick’em if you take that takedown defence stat seriously, but I think it’s a red herring. Armen Petrosyan’s demonstrated that he’s got the skills to get the job done here, and if he survives round 1 I think he's in the driver's seat. I bet him for 1.5u here at +110.
How I line this fight: Rodolfo Vieira +150 (40%), Armen Petrosyan -150 (60%)
Bet or pass: 1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win +110
Prop leans: Could be interested in Petrosyan in Rounds 2 and 3…we’ll see
Live Betting lean: This favours Petrosyan the longer it lasts.
Devin Clark v Marcin Prachnio
If you’re a casual bettor who only bets parlays, or a bloodthirsty MMA casual who thinks grappling is too homoerotic for you to watch, then you’ll hate Devin Clark. However, if you can appreciate the fine art of early 2010s MMA wrestling, or if you’re a smart bettor, then Devin Clark is one of the boys.
If you’re a fellow shrewdy, then the casuals’ loss is actually our gain, because I genuinely believe the books misprice Devin Clark on purpose because they know how unpopular he is. He is NEVER going to be red on the books, the majority of money probably gets spent fading him out of hatred and lack of respect for his boring style.
I’m not saying Devin is THAT good of a fighter, but the books never seem to respect his ability to find his very reliable path to victory – Survive the power, elongate the fight and win via cage pushing and takedowns. He did it against Menifield, Jung, Knight and Stosic, all whilst massively, massively outperforming his price tag (+2XX dogs against Jung and Menifield, pick’em to Stosic and just -175 against Knight).
He faces Marcin Prachnio this time. The very same Marcin Prachnio that for some time held the title of “worst UFC fighter on the roster” before Dana nosedived the talentpool with Contender Series bums. Prachnio’s not really very good at anything. He’s not no power, no process, and no grit. Any respectable LHW he has fought has pretty much laughed in his face and walked through him inside two rounds.
Prachnio does have three wins in the UFC though, but two of those are incredibly fortunate opportunities where his opponents shat the bed and mentally folded to the occasion. Khalil Rountree lost to Marcin when he was in the midst of the flakey chapter in his career, and William Knight got spooked and landed just eight significant strikes from just 33 thrown in a 15-minute bout (I do question how you don’t manage to finish a fighter who isn’t threatening you, but oh well). The other loss came against Ike Villanueva, who was awful.
I’ve said enough damning things about Prachnio’s UFC record, but that’s not even the reason I’m betting Clark heavy here – it’s stylistically a terrible matchup for Marcin and stylistically a gift for Devin. Clark wants to wrestle, and he struggles to make that work against hard hitting opponents who either finish him, or stop his advances in their tracks with power (and even then it doesn’t always work). Marcin has finished one opponent since 2018, and it was a body kick to the fat and unathletic Villanueva. Other than that, he doesn’t even have a knockdown to his name in the UFC.
So Marcin’s not got the ideal style to beat Devin, but what about the reverse? Well we obviously know that Devin’s not much of a one-punch KO artist, but Prachnio’s last two losses saw him getting competently outgrappled by Philipe Lins and Vitor Petrino, who both landed four takedowns on him. Considering I currently think Clark’s a better wrestler than those two…I think he’s got a clear route to a win here.
In summary, Clark’s not amazing but his 15 minute performance is usually a tricky one to beat, unless you’ve got power to hurt him and halt his enthusiasm. I don’t think Prachnio has that at all, so I’m sure Clark has an open lane to put in a very Devin Clark-ish performance, and likely win another decision. At -175, I think there’s clear value here, so I’ve bet him for 4u. Aggressive, but that kind of style is working well for me at the moment
How I line this fight: Devin Clark -250 (71%), Marcin Prachnio +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: 4u Devin Clark to Win (-175)
Prop leans: Clark by Decision, I guess. Unlikely you get anything near a good price though.
UFC 298: Volkanovski v Topuria
Andrea Lee v Miranda Maverick
I posted this breakdown back at the end of 2023. This is a copy/paste.
It’s no secret that I’ve always been a pretty big believer in Miranda Maverick. I’ve had to re-calibrate my expectations in recent years as she’s had some very disappointing performances that I thought she’d have performed better in (Blanchfield and Jasudavicius), but I still rate her grappling highly and think she’s a nightmare matchup for any woman that’s not got superb scrambling and wrestling ability themselves.
Andrea Lee’s a bit of a weird one really (not just for her choice in men and her potential Nazi affiliations), because she’s got a decently well-rounded skillset and often ends up in competitive fights with whoever she’s competing against. Despite all that, the two things that are abundantly clear about her game are her poor takedowns defence, and lack of power. When you’re facing a one dimensional wrestler, those are probably the two most important skills you need.
The lack of takedown defence is obviously key here, and Lee’s metrics are pretty shocking in that regard. To run through her UFC career figures of takedowns conceded/faced: Maycee Barber 2/2, Vivi Araujo 3/5, Cynthia Calvillo 1/3, Roxanne Modafferi 4/7, Lauren Murphy 2/4, Joanne Wood 2/4, Montana De La Rosa 5/12, Ashlee-Evans Smith 2/10, Veronica Hardy 1/1 .
The thing that’s glaringly obvious to me there is that Miranda Maverick’s probably a better wrestlegrappler than anyone in that list, which immediately bodes well if women of lesser skill had success there. Not only that, but Miranda’s not got the worst striking I’ve ever seen (she’s actually outstruck every opponent at distance that she’s faced in the UFC so far).
Onwards to the lack of power, which I think is a key component to striker vs grappler fights in MMA these days with the focus on damage. Because Maverick is likely to have the better cardio here (training at elevation), she should be able to rinse and repeat her wrestling and rack up a good couple of minutes per round of control time. What can Angela Lee do in the remaining time that’s left to claim the round in her favour, when she isn’t able to land the type of damaging offence that’ll catch the judges’ eyes?
So clearly this is a fight where the gap in skill in the wrestling department is much more prominent than the striking. That immediately warrants Maverick being the favourite in my opinion – but Lee’s lack of finishing ability, inferior cardio, and the fact she’s lost her last six fights that have gone the distance, I think it warrants Miranda Maverick being about -200 here. If Roxanne Modafferi and Vivi Araujo can follow a wrestling blueprint to find a victory over Andrea Lee, I think Miranda Maverick should have no problem at all.
Currently I’m seeing Maverick priced around -150, which I think is very far off the mark. I’ll therefore have 3u on her to win at that price.
How I line this fight: Miranda Maverick -200 (67%), Andrea Lee +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: 3u Miranda Maverick to Win (-150)
Prop leans: Maverick Decision, probably
UFC 299: O’Malley v Vera 2
Gilbert Burns vs Jack Della Maddalena
Aw shit…here we go again! I’ve made reference to Randy Brown vs JDM about 500 times since I’ve been posting on Reddit, as it was the first hot take I had in my first ever post. Well now I’m back once again to try and fade one of the most fortunate fighters we have seen in recent years.
Jack Della Maddalena is a phenomenal striker, I know that. I bet on him to beat Kevin Holland at the early price of like +125 (I then arb’d out of it when the odds flipped), so I respect and rate his skills on the feet. But that fight against Bassil Hafez showed everyone what I’d been trying to say all year, he is an absolutely shocking grappler and you simply cannot make it all the way to the top with a gaping hole like that.
The UFC know this too, as they’ve made sure to keep him safe from capable grapplers every step of the way. They had to make quick adjustments when he fought Hafez on short notice, but how bad must your grappling be for you not to be able to handle the wrestling of a guy like Hafez – who went to a split decision against Anthony Ivy and had to get a redemption win against Evan Cutts. It’s not just this fight that we saw it, he also struggled against Ange Loosa on DWCS! I know I’m talking like JDM officially lost that Hafez fight when he didn’t, but he might as well have done and his stock has fallen as a result, and we all know the judges had their strings pulled.
The UFC are giving JDM a sink or swim kind of challenge here, pitting him against Gilbert Burns. Durinho is one of the most credentialled BJJ guys the UFC has ever seen, and he’s also got pretty decent wrestling to use a lay-and-pray gameplan when it suits him, like against Jorge Masvidal or Wonderboy. They are pretty key reference points when breaking this one down – superior striker vs well-rounded opponent who can utilise grappling. Both men may have been washed and nowhere near the level of JDM in that fight, but seeing Burns identify the gap in skill and weaponise it is pretty much all I need to see here to deem him a moderate sized favourite. If someone guarantees me that Burns is looking for takedowns here, I think he could be -400.
Obviously there are concerns on the return though – JDM’s a capable enough striker to stop Burns before he even gets his grappling going, or perhaps Burns fights like an idiot and doesn’t look to grapple. Regardless of which one you focus on, I think they should be quite low percentage outcomes here.
For that reason, I think a bet on Gilbert Burns is too good to pass up here at -137 or better. Personally I’d have had Burns at -200, with the potential for him to look so much steeper if he avoids the KO and grapples. I do know that JDM is a very popular fighter though, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this line get even better between now and then. For that reason, I’ll hold off for now and watch the line like a hawk. It’s been moving downwards towards a pick’em, so I’m glad I waited this long when I initially referenced this one last year.
How I line this fight: Gilbert Burns -200 (67%), Jack Della Maddalena +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: Nothing yet, but I will definitely have two units on Burns at -135 or better
Prop leans: Burns by Submission is on the cards here
Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael dos Anjos
RDA isn’t getting any younger. He’s 39 now and has one hell of a career, still competing in top 15 battles after 47 professional bouts. Unfortunately, he’s very much a finished product, and the weaknesses his opponents have found and established are going to be a nightmare for him here. That weakness is his takedown defence and inability to work back to his feet.
RDA’s last performance against Vicente Luque confirmed this, because there we saw a fighter lean on a skillset that’s obviously not his strong suit, and still have enough success to get the job done. Luque landed eight takedowns in that fight, bringing his average takedowns landed to 1.04 per fight – which highlights how little he’s ever really tried to wrestle before that. In fact, the last time he landed a takedown was against Leon Edwards in 2017. He had no right to be able to just pull a completely unproven skillset out of his back pocket and coherently win a fight with it…which is a testament to how big of an issue RDA has in terms of takedown defence and scrambling.
So with that in mind, now sounds like an absolutely terrible time to face a fighter like Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot’s a very good wrestler, but his BJJ ability is world class. Not only that, but he’s been improving his striking in the meantime, as briefly seen in the recent main event against Fiziev.
Another key reason why I’m so confident here, is that RDA’s very much been leaning on his grappling to find success these days. He got a nice lay up against Bryan Barbarena where he just went and found an easy choke, and takedowns were the difference in wins over Renato Moicano and Paul Felder. I’d be surprised if he even lands a takedown on Gamrot here, let alone is able to hold him down afterwards. Without that, RDA’s probably going to have to hope for a KO shot to win the fight…which isn’t something he’s done since he beat Donald Cerrone as Lightweight champion back in 2015, and hardly something Gamrot is historically susceptible to. Anything’s possible, but it’s not something I put a whole lot of percentage into.
So why am I seeing Gamrot at only -225 (69%) here? To me, this could well be a -400 spot, given that RDA’s weaknesses align very heavily to the Polish fighter’s strengths? This is another 4u spot for me, for sure.
How I line this fight: Mateusz Gamrot -400 (83%), Rafael dos Anjos +400 (17%)
Bet or pass: 4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
Bet Summary (ones in bold have been placed, ones that say "or better" have not yet been placed)
1u Oktagon - Max Holzer to Win (+120)
1u Oktagon - Adam Palasz & Jake McHugh to Win (+115)
2u Nassourdine Imavov to Win (-150)
2u Randy Brown to Win (-130) (parlay with Lainesse/Patterson U1.5 Rounds ✅)
3u Natalia Silva to Win (-120) (parlay with Jasmine Jasudavicius to Win✅)
1u Randy Brown & Natalia Silva to Win (+100)
1.5u Drew Dober to Win (+120 or better)
0.5u Drew Dober to Win by TKO/KO (+200 or better)
2u Gilbert Urbina to Win (-175)
2u Maquel Mederos to Win (-163 or better)
1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win (+110)
4u Devin Clark to Win (-175)
3u Miranda Maverick to Win (-150)
1u Gilbert Burns to Win (-137 or better)
4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
submitted by sideswipe781 to MMAbetting [link] [comments]
2024 - Staked: 22u, Profit/Loss: 2.5u, ROI: 11.34%
I do all my written breakdowns and podcast for free, which probably takes about 20 hours work in total every week. I love bringing the content to you guys and my primary motivation is to make this subreddit better understand gambling, and I also think this information should be freely available to try and make everyone more knowledgeable. Whilst I don’t and won’t charge anything for the stuff I put out, the following link is available if you were feeling generous enough to tip me for my work: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/SideswipeMMA
Here's a recap of my UFC 297 bets
UFC 297 (PREVIOUS CARD)
Staked: 16.5u
Profit/Loss: +3.39u
ROI: 20.55%
Parlay Suggestions: 4-1
Dog of the Week: Ramon Taveras ✅
The Sideswipe Women’s MMA party continues, with two amazing bets on the Canadian women cashing with absolute ease. Robertson moving from -150 to -300 is the best CLV I have ever gotten, and Jasudavicius was somehow still massive value at -350. Evloev delivered in a close fight, and Ramon Taveras came through as an underdog. It wasn’t all winners though, as Brad Katona put in an underwhelming performance and took a chunk of the profits and crashed the parlay as a result. Just like last week though, I have a couple of cross-event parlays that are now half-way across the line, so UFC Vegas 85 is looking nice already!
Honestly though, the results felt a bit bittersweet for UFC 297, because my reads were so, so sharp that I could have made a lot more money on the card. I correctly identified that Strickland/Du Plessis was a very close fight, suggested Pennington by Decision as a prop, said Malott’s moneyline was ridiculous, said Barriault/Curtis and Woodson/Jourdain were pick’ems, and said there was value on Patterson and Flick too! So basically, if I’d bet anything and everything that I wanted, I think I genuinely would have hit double digits profits really. Looking at those honestly, I think I could have realistically bet Dricus at +125 early (win), Pennington by Decision (win), Barriault decision (value loser), Woodson (win), Patterson submission or moneyline (win), Flick Submission (win). Good result, but what could have been!
Oh well, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, and all that! Full results of bets below.
❌ 1u Mike Malott to Win by Submission & Under 1.5 Rounds at +210
✅ 1u Movsar Evloev to Win at -150 (won +0.67u)
✅ 0.5u Movsar Evloev to Win & Over 2.5 Rounds at -125 (won +0.4u)
❌ 3u Brad Katona to Win at -163
✅ 4u Gillian Robertson to Win at -150 (won +2.68u)
✅ 1u Ramon Taveras to Win at +163 (won +1.63u)
✅✅ 3u Jasmine Jasudavicius & Marcus McGhee both to Win at -125 (won +2.4u)
✅❓ 3u Jasmine Jasudavicius & Natalia Silva both to Win at -120 (rolls on to next event)
✅ 0.5u Jasmine Jasudavicius ITD at +220 (won +1.1u)
✅❓ 2u Lainesse/Patterson Under 2.5 Rounds & Randy Brown to Win at -125 (rolls on to next week)
❌ 1.5u Gordon/Flick Over 1.5 Rounds at -105
❌ 0.5u Gordon/Flick Over 1.5 Rounds at +250
✅ ARB - Malcolm Gordon & Jimmy Flick Money Lines (won +0.42u)
✅✅❌ Trixie – Evloev Decision, Jasudavicius ITD & Gordon/Flick Over 1.5 Rounds (won +0.34u)
❌ 0.25u Parlay Pieces at +548
FUTURE BETS
Now for the good bit - we’ve got a week’s break before we are back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 85: Imavov v Dolidze, but the wonderful oddsmakers have been churning out prices left, right and centre for the first quarter of the year. There’s betting lines for almost every fight between now and UFC 300, which means there’s still a lot of work to be done despite the week off!
Most of the people provide this kind of content on a week-by-week basis, but betting lines are constantly moving, and getting ahead is one of the key things that gives me an edge in this game. I can’t stress just how important it is long term to making sure that you get the best price possible when you want to bet on something, as it ensures you’re squeezing every last bit of value out of a strong read.
We are only two events into this year, but here’s a list of the CLV I’ve already managed so far in 2024.
Joshua Van, bet at -188, closed at -350
Ramon Taveras, bet at +163, closed at +140
Jasmine Jasudavicius, bet at -350, closed at -400
Gillian Robertson, bet at -150, closed at -300
Brad Katona, bet at -175, closed at -225
Movsar Evloev, bet at -150, closed at -200
And I’m sure there will be plenty more to come!
So with that in mind, here are breakdowns for all of the bets I’ve placed so far between now and UFC 300. This post is still a work in progress, as I’ve not done tape on everything between now and then! (I work hard, but no one works THAT hard!). If I find anything else I like in the next seven days, I’ll post it in here (unlikely though as I’ve finished the next card already and want to take a bit of a break).
As always, there’s a bunch of fights I’ve done research for but didn’t end up with a bet for, so if you want my opinion on any fights in the near future that aren’t mentioned here, just ask in the comments and I’ll happily provide some thoughts.
UFC Vegas 85: Imavov v Dolidze
Roman Dolidze v Nassourdine Imavov
I’ve got a good history with both guys here. I’ve a 5-1 record on Dolidze’s fights (only being incorrect in picking Jack Hermansson to beat him), and 4-1 on Imavov fights (losing out on an underdog bet in his loss to Phil Hawes).
Roman Dolidze is very, very overrated in my opinion. I understand that he’s got really good skills on paper, and his BJJ is definitely to be respected, but the guy doesn’t take fights seriously enough and is a pretty average striker outside of knockout power. He’s being overrated due to his performance in the Marvin Vettori fight recently, where he outperformed his price tag and looked competitive against one of the divison’s top 5 (I respected it and was impressed…at the time). Marvin Vettori followed that fight up with an atrocious performance against Jared Cannonier, and I genuinely think Vettori’s suddenly washed, he looked that bad. It Made me re-calibrate my opinions on Dolidze’s performance that night…but it seems the books forgot to do so.
Nassourdine Imavov is kind of suffering the opposite fate at the moment, because he put on a brilliant performance against Chris Cutis last time out, only for an accidental headbutt to rob him of a win and instead give him a ‘no contest’. It really makes me wonder, if the books remembered Vettori is not the top 5 guy we think he is, and they remembered Imavov’s performance against Curtis…what would the line actually be?
Imavov is the more fluent and technical fighter, is the better wrestler, has the superior cardio, and isn’t a bad BJJ player himself. This one is a pretty clear contest of minute winner vs finisher, and I think Imavov wins this one pretty cleanly as long as he stays safe from the power and opportunistic submissions. I was very keen to make this bet with Jack Hermansson back in the day, and for 95% of the fight I was cruising. I know how the fight ended, but if Jack Hermansson can establish himself as the superior fighter against you, then Imavov’s got the potential to embarrass you. The finish Dolidze worked out against Hermansson was a thing of beauty, but I don’t think lightning strikes twice here, so I’ll gladly bet Imavov at -150 for 2u. I still think he’s got the potential to be a top 5 fighter at Middleweight, and I think he could go on to look -300 here in hindsight. Dolidze’s dangerous though, as I learnt against Hermansson, so 2u sounds right because this can’t be TOO high confidence.
How I line this fight: Roman Dolidze +200 (33%), Nassourdine Imavov -200 (66%)
Bet or pass: 2u Nassourdine Imavov to Win (-150)
Prop leans: None
Renato Moicano v Drew Dober
This is a sensational bit of matchmaking. Two fan favourites who know how to have fun and brawl in the cage, but also two guys who have shown inconsistencies and glimpses of frailty in recent years that adds a bit of mystery and uncertainty.
Moicano is clearly the more well-rounded guy, but for as good as a striker as he can look when he’s comfortable, he can absolutely be got at and bossed around if you’ve earnt his respect and he hasn’t earnt yours (see Fiziev, RDA and TKZ fights). Drew Dober’s the more one-dimensional, but that focus is in the striking department, where Dober hits incredibly hard and has speed, volume and athleticism in spades. Moicano really should be looking to wrestle in this one, because he’s the kind of frail striker that will hand the win to a superior one on a platter, whether via damage or a finish. With the intensity that Dober throws with, I just can’t see a world where Moicano stays safe on the feet for long periods, and if they go balls to the wall blow for blow, I only see one guy winning.
So that sounds very much like I’m leaning towards Dober on the Moneyline here, and value wise I definitely am…but Dober’s never really been the best defensive wrestlegrappler, and I have concerns about his ability to stay safe from a dangerous submission threat like Moicano if he finds himself on bottom. Having said that, Dober seems aware of his incapabilities, and instead likes to just lock down position in full guard and explode back to his feet when he can. I can see a great back-taker like Moicano being patient and trapping him with that, but I’d rather Dober remained calmed and composed in the dangerzone than panicking like a fish out of water, so he might actually be alright.
In my mind, a win for Dober looks very similar to the Bobby Green fight, where he gets tagged a fair bit but creates the environment in the second round to land the bombs he needs. I’ve always thought Moicano was a bit of a flake, and someone whose talent as a mixed martial artist doesn’t quite match his lack of grit as a cage fighter, and when the going gets tough he folds (similar to what Charles Oliveira was like pre-COVID run).
So I’m on Dober here. I can see the flaws and I’m not saying it’s a confident play, but I think Drew should be the favourite due to the fact he probably finds his finish easier than Renato does. I saw a small bit of value at a pick’em, but now he’s moved to +110 so I think I’ll have to get involved soon enough. It’ll be a 1u bet on the moneyline when I decide to pull the trigger, with 0.5u on the KO as I don’t see Moicano surviving if they spend enough time on the feet for Dober to win the fight. Haven’t bet it yet but definitely will do.
How I line this fight: Drew Dober -125 (55%), Renato Moicano +125 (45%)
Bet or pass: 1u Drew Dober to Win (+110 or better), 0.5u Drew Dober to Win by TKO/KO
Prop leans: See above
Randy Brown v Muslim Salikhov
Annoyed about this one getting re-booked. I had 7.5u on Brown at -188 and -110 (parlay with Shavkat) before that fight got scrapped at UFC 296. Absolutely hate it when that happens. At least it was Brown who was ill that day and he didn’t fight compromised when I had that much money on him.
Anyway, nothing has changed, I still think there’s a small bit of value on Brown around -230, as I think he should be -300. I therefore parlay’d him for 2u alongside Lainesse/Patterson lasting Under 2.5 Rounds on UFC 297, which has already cashed. I’ve attached my initial breakdown below.
“If you’ve stuck around for a long time you’ll know I think very highly of Randy Brown. I bet him to upset Jack Della Maddalena (I still think he could), I bet him to beat Wellington Turman, and I generally believe he’s a borderline top 15 fighter. He’s well-rounded with a great frame for a Welterweight, and as long as he’s not getting walked down and put under pressure by a hard hitter, it’s difficult to look good against him.
Muslim Salikhov on the other hand, is 39 years old and still painfully one-dimensional. He’s not a bad striker, but he’s just getting slower and more plodding as he gets older. He’s not much of a pressure fighter either, he wants to be at kick-boxing range so he can start utilising his kicks and making reads for counter strikes, and that’s going to benefit the eight-inch reach advantage that the quicker guy in Randy Brown is naturally going to have.
Salikhov also benefitted from not facing particularly good grapplers in his UFC career, as it also hasn’t taken much for some opponents to demonstrate a clear advantage against him on the mat (see the Alex Garcia loss in his debut). He’s also not got particularly good cardio in a medium to high paced 15 minute affair.
He comes into this bout off a unanimous decision (30-27 x2) loss to Nicholas Dalby. I know everyone’s remembering Dalby as the guy who upset the -600 favourite, but Dalby’s not very good! He’s been getting the better of fellow veterans and one-dimensional fighters, not borderline top 15 talent…and he still soundly beat Salikhov.
I just simply think there’s a big difference in athleticism, speed, cardio, diversity and youthfulness here, and it’s all in the favour of Brown. The only advantages I give to Salikhov are in pure power, and he’s not a super scary walk off KO type of fighter anyway.
So yeah, there’s a path to victory for Salikhov, but I think it’s small and doesn’t happen more than 25% of the time in my opinion. I thought Brown should have been about -300 here”.
How I line this fight: Randy Brown -300 (75%), Muslim Salikhov +300 (25%)
Bet or pass: 2u Randy Brown to Win (parlay’d with Lainesse/Patterson U2.5r ✅) (-130)
Prop leans: Brown by Submission would be my longshot suggestion, but I’m not playing it.
Viviane Araujo v Natalia Silva
Pretty easy fight to analyse, this one. Natalia Silva’s probably the most exciting WMMA prospect outside any division’s top five right now, so the price is obviously going to reflect that, as it often does. She’s good for it though, as I’ve thought she had the talent to go all the way to the top five since she made her UFC debut. I bet her as a +200 underdog against Jasudavicius in her debut as well, so I have the receipts!
I’ve also been a Viviane Araujo believer as well, and I bet her in her short notice debut too, where she scored a rare one punch WMMA KO as a massive underdog. Also bet her in her most recent win as an underdog to Jennifer Maia. She’s been a better striker than most of her UFC opponents and, with decent takedown defence to keep things where she wants them, that’s how she’s thrived.
Unfortunately for Vivi, I just don’t think Natalia Silva is inferior to her in any way. Natalia’s a lot lighter on her feet, has the higher volume and the much better defence, and has actually shown to be the more dangerous of the two. She also has the superior cardio, which should play a huge factor is this one goes 15 minutes, as Vivi wins round three at a very low clip which is a huge, huge flaw.
So this is lowkey a nightmare matchup for Vivi Araujo, and I think there’s enough value on the betting line to use Natalia Silva as a parlay piece. I just don’t see how she loses this one unless she has an off night. We’ve seen Araujo have off nights recently, in her underwhelming performances against Amanda Ribas and Alexa Grasso, so I’d be more worried about that happening to her.
I’m very confident in Natalia Silva here, and so I decided to get my business done early and combine here with Jasmine Jasudavicius from the UFC 297 card, for a 3u parlay at -120. Now it’s just a single.
How I line this fight: Viviane Araujo +350 (22%), Natalia Silva -400 (78%)
Bet or pass: 3u Natalia Silva to Win (w/ Jasmine Jasudavicius ✅) -120
Prop leans: None
Gilbert Urbina v Charles Radtke
Well, I think Charles Radtke’s performance against Mike Mathetha (the artist formally known as Blood Diamond) kind of vindicated my negative opinion on him in the build up to that fight. I was not overly impressed by his striking, and I didn’t think his grappling would be good enough to necessarily be relied on or assume he was a lock in that fight. Given he lasted one striking exchange before diving for the double leg, lost one (maybe two!) rounds, landed just 16% of his attempted takedowns, and got outstruck by the insanely overrated striking of Mathetha, I’d say that’s a pretty bad performance against one of the easiest wins in UFC history (seriously who else is that bad of a grappler in the UFC in the last 15 years?)
He faces Gilbert Urbina for his sophomore UFC bout, with Gilbert coming off a very impressive victory over Orion Cosce last time out. Not the most challenging opponent (his one and only UFC win coming against none other than Mike Mathetha, the artist formally known as Blood Diamond), but that’s a demonstration of exactly how you are supposed to handle a lay-up fight. Urbina was in control from the opening seconds and threatened with his striking and grappling, and demonstrated a skillset I think he could easily replicate against Radtke here.
I think Urbina’s got a significant grappling advantage in this fight, and another advantage in just general dangerousness. It also helps that he’s noticeably bigger than Radtke also, which should help him to manage distance and take control of the grappling moments in this fight. However, it’s still somewhat of a lower confidence opinion, as Urbina’s still finding his feet in the UFC and has only really demonstrated his best work against a lower level of competition (The same can certainly be said for Radtke here, but two wrongs don’t make a right in a situation like that).
I was fine with the idea of seeing Urbina at -225 where the early line settled, but for some reason a fair amount of money has come in on Radtke, pushing the line down. I got caught out by the line movement and the best price I could get was -175
How I line this fight: Gilbert Urbina -225 (69%), Charlie Radtke +225 (31%)
Bet or pass: 2u Gilbert Urbina (-175)
Prop leans: None
UFC Vegas 86: Hermansson v Pyfer
Rodolfo Vieira v Armen Petrosyan
I had a bet on this fight when it was initially booked on the Lewis vs Almeida card last year. I had some very strong opinions on it. Nothing has changed, so here’s a copy/paste of the original breakdown:
“An interesting fight. We all know what we’re getting from Rodolfo Vieira, he’s a one-dimensional BJJ wizard that has already been humbled by Anthony Hernandez, which I think was actually a really good thing for him and his career! He’s come back with improved cardio and a more patient approach. He now realises he can’t just bumrush people and make them tap. He got very lucky in his last fight against Cody Brundage though, with the idiot pulling guard for a guillotine against a BJJ ace and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when Cody had Rodolfo in all kinds of trouble.
Armen Petrosyan is a pure kickboxer, and will obviously have all kinds of advantages on the feet. However, statistically he’s got pretty shocking takedown defence, having been taken down on 12 occasions in his first 4 DWCS/UFC fights (including against Gregory Rodrigues, Caio Borralho and AJ Dobson). It feels as if that statistic is the key player in deciding the betting line here, because I don’t think Vieira’s demonstrated enough of a skillset from his own merit to justify being a minus money pricetag at a UFC level (aside from his high level submissions, of course…but you need other skills to even make those work)
There’s a big asterisk to that takedown defence statistic though – the figures don’t contextualise Petrosyan’s get ups and scrambling ability as soon as he hits the mat. I went and re-watched every single time Petrosyan was forced to the mat in the aforementioned 4 fights, and here’s the summary:
- AJ Dobson got three takedowns. He abandoned one and Petrosyan used the fence to get back to his feet instantly with the other two. Three takedowns that had absolutely no impact on the fight and less than 30 seconds in combined top control.
- Caio Borralho had the most success, capitalising on back takes during the scrambles, and also getting full mount. Petrosyan did a great job of staying calm and waiting for his opportunity. Caio definitely got the better of him in the grappling but Petrosyan kept it competitive and took his opportunities to get back to the feet. I am very high on Caio’s wrestling ability though, so this did not surprise me
- Robocop hit him with a blast double leg, and Petrosyan wall-walked his way back to the feet seconds later. Rodrigues hit two body lock takedowns in the third round, and got the back off two very quick scrambles. Petrosyan was able to defend the Suloev Stretch well, and got back to his feet off the back take. 1 minute 34 seconds of top control for Robocop, the grappling wasn’t a huge factor here (and we saw how effective Robocop’s grappling can be in his recent win over Tiuliulin).
- On DWCS against Kolev, he was taken down by double legs, single legs and a clinch takedown…but used the fence to get back to his feet almost instantly on all three occasions (though he did semi give up his back in the process).
So, to conclude: Petrosyan’s not got very good takedown defence, and he will give up his back in his attempt to get up. BUT, his submission defence looks pretty damn good (surviving multiple back takes from Robocop and Caio Borralho is very, very impressive), and his ability to get back to his feet via the fence is amongst the best I’ve ever seen. In short, he may have been taken down 12 times, but Borralho was the only fighter to actually do anything remotely significant with them in terms of top control time and threatening submission (Robocop had two too but Petrosyan wasn’t really fussed).
Considering how that matches against Vieira…I think it’s therefore a good fight for Petrosyan. Petrosyan’s cardio may not look amazing, but he’s consistently winning round three in fights that mostly include a lot of grappling, so I think it’s safe to say he’ll grow into the fight the longer it lasts, as his cardio is certainly superior to Vieira’s. That’s absolutely huge here, as I think Vieira’s going to need multiple takedowns to get the job done. If he lands one, I’m confident Petrosyan can either find the way to the fence or at least let the clock tick down and stay safe, before things continue on the feet again. How does Vieira look when he has to get his second, or this third, or even his fourth? You see what I mean…
I just think there’s a high likelihood that Rodolfo Vieira gets forced to work too hard in the opening round and gasses here. I know the takedown defence is awful, but I was genuinely impressed by Petrosyan’s work underneath Borralho and Robocop, who I think are far more capable of providing a submission threat in MMA (IE, including takedowns and ground control). If Petrosyan can pass that test, I think he should be able to survive the early goings. Also, if you put Petrosyan in the fights that Dustin Stoltzfus and Cody Brundage had with Vieira, I think he wins them comfortably.
Couple that with the fact that Petrosyan’s going to be on his bike, landing body kicks and leg kicks the entire time the fight’s on the feet…so he’s going to be investing in the tools that will sap Vieira’s cardio and reduce the explosiveness needed to land takedowns.
I can understand why this fight is a pick’em if you take that takedown defence stat seriously, but I think it’s a red herring. Armen Petrosyan’s demonstrated that he’s got the skills to get the job done here, and if he survives round 1 I think he's in the driver's seat. I bet him for 1.5u here at +110.
How I line this fight: Rodolfo Vieira +150 (40%), Armen Petrosyan -150 (60%)
Bet or pass: 1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win +110
Prop leans: Could be interested in Petrosyan in Rounds 2 and 3…we’ll see
Live Betting lean: This favours Petrosyan the longer it lasts.
Devin Clark v Marcin Prachnio
If you’re a casual bettor who only bets parlays, or a bloodthirsty MMA casual who thinks grappling is too homoerotic for you to watch, then you’ll hate Devin Clark. However, if you can appreciate the fine art of early 2010s MMA wrestling, or if you’re a smart bettor, then Devin Clark is one of the boys.
If you’re a fellow shrewdy, then the casuals’ loss is actually our gain, because I genuinely believe the books misprice Devin Clark on purpose because they know how unpopular he is. He is NEVER going to be red on the books, the majority of money probably gets spent fading him out of hatred and lack of respect for his boring style.
I’m not saying Devin is THAT good of a fighter, but the books never seem to respect his ability to find his very reliable path to victory – Survive the power, elongate the fight and win via cage pushing and takedowns. He did it against Menifield, Jung, Knight and Stosic, all whilst massively, massively outperforming his price tag (+2XX dogs against Jung and Menifield, pick’em to Stosic and just -175 against Knight).
He faces Marcin Prachnio this time. The very same Marcin Prachnio that for some time held the title of “worst UFC fighter on the roster” before Dana nosedived the talentpool with Contender Series bums. Prachnio’s not really very good at anything. He’s not no power, no process, and no grit. Any respectable LHW he has fought has pretty much laughed in his face and walked through him inside two rounds.
Prachnio does have three wins in the UFC though, but two of those are incredibly fortunate opportunities where his opponents shat the bed and mentally folded to the occasion. Khalil Rountree lost to Marcin when he was in the midst of the flakey chapter in his career, and William Knight got spooked and landed just eight significant strikes from just 33 thrown in a 15-minute bout (I do question how you don’t manage to finish a fighter who isn’t threatening you, but oh well). The other loss came against Ike Villanueva, who was awful.
I’ve said enough damning things about Prachnio’s UFC record, but that’s not even the reason I’m betting Clark heavy here – it’s stylistically a terrible matchup for Marcin and stylistically a gift for Devin. Clark wants to wrestle, and he struggles to make that work against hard hitting opponents who either finish him, or stop his advances in their tracks with power (and even then it doesn’t always work). Marcin has finished one opponent since 2018, and it was a body kick to the fat and unathletic Villanueva. Other than that, he doesn’t even have a knockdown to his name in the UFC.
So Marcin’s not got the ideal style to beat Devin, but what about the reverse? Well we obviously know that Devin’s not much of a one-punch KO artist, but Prachnio’s last two losses saw him getting competently outgrappled by Philipe Lins and Vitor Petrino, who both landed four takedowns on him. Considering I currently think Clark’s a better wrestler than those two…I think he’s got a clear route to a win here.
In summary, Clark’s not amazing but his 15 minute performance is usually a tricky one to beat, unless you’ve got power to hurt him and halt his enthusiasm. I don’t think Prachnio has that at all, so I’m sure Clark has an open lane to put in a very Devin Clark-ish performance, and likely win another decision. At -175, I think there’s clear value here, so I’ve bet him for 4u. Aggressive, but that kind of style is working well for me at the moment
How I line this fight: Devin Clark -250 (71%), Marcin Prachnio +250 (29%)
Bet or pass: 4u Devin Clark to Win (-175)
Prop leans: Clark by Decision, I guess. Unlikely you get anything near a good price though.
UFC 298: Volkanovski v Topuria
Andrea Lee v Miranda Maverick
I posted this breakdown back at the end of 2023. This is a copy/paste.
It’s no secret that I’ve always been a pretty big believer in Miranda Maverick. I’ve had to re-calibrate my expectations in recent years as she’s had some very disappointing performances that I thought she’d have performed better in (Blanchfield and Jasudavicius), but I still rate her grappling highly and think she’s a nightmare matchup for any woman that’s not got superb scrambling and wrestling ability themselves.
Andrea Lee’s a bit of a weird one really (not just for her choice in men and her potential Nazi affiliations), because she’s got a decently well-rounded skillset and often ends up in competitive fights with whoever she’s competing against. Despite all that, the two things that are abundantly clear about her game are her poor takedowns defence, and lack of power. When you’re facing a one dimensional wrestler, those are probably the two most important skills you need.
The lack of takedown defence is obviously key here, and Lee’s metrics are pretty shocking in that regard. To run through her UFC career figures of takedowns conceded/faced: Maycee Barber 2/2, Vivi Araujo 3/5, Cynthia Calvillo 1/3, Roxanne Modafferi 4/7, Lauren Murphy 2/4, Joanne Wood 2/4, Montana De La Rosa 5/12, Ashlee-Evans Smith 2/10, Veronica Hardy 1/1 .
The thing that’s glaringly obvious to me there is that Miranda Maverick’s probably a better wrestlegrappler than anyone in that list, which immediately bodes well if women of lesser skill had success there. Not only that, but Miranda’s not got the worst striking I’ve ever seen (she’s actually outstruck every opponent at distance that she’s faced in the UFC so far).
Onwards to the lack of power, which I think is a key component to striker vs grappler fights in MMA these days with the focus on damage. Because Maverick is likely to have the better cardio here (training at elevation), she should be able to rinse and repeat her wrestling and rack up a good couple of minutes per round of control time. What can Angela Lee do in the remaining time that’s left to claim the round in her favour, when she isn’t able to land the type of damaging offence that’ll catch the judges’ eyes?
So clearly this is a fight where the gap in skill in the wrestling department is much more prominent than the striking. That immediately warrants Maverick being the favourite in my opinion – but Lee’s lack of finishing ability, inferior cardio, and the fact she’s lost her last six fights that have gone the distance, I think it warrants Miranda Maverick being about -200 here. If Roxanne Modafferi and Vivi Araujo can follow a wrestling blueprint to find a victory over Andrea Lee, I think Miranda Maverick should have no problem at all.
Currently I’m seeing Maverick priced around -150, which I think is very far off the mark. I’ll therefore have 3u on her to win at that price.
How I line this fight: Miranda Maverick -200 (67%), Andrea Lee +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: 3u Miranda Maverick to Win (-150)
Prop leans: Maverick Decision, probably
UFC 299: O’Malley v Vera 2
Gilbert Burns vs Jack Della Maddalena
Aw shit…here we go again! I’ve made reference to Randy Brown vs JDM about 500 times since I’ve been posting on Reddit, as it was the first hot take I had in my first ever post. Well now I’m back once again to try and fade one of the most fortunate fighters we have seen in recent years.
Jack Della Maddalena is a phenomenal striker, I know that. I bet on him to beat Kevin Holland at the early price of like +125 (I then arb’d out of it when the odds flipped), so I respect and rate his skills on the feet. But that fight against Bassil Hafez showed everyone what I’d been trying to say all year, he is an absolutely shocking grappler and you simply cannot make it all the way to the top with a gaping hole like that.
The UFC know this too, as they’ve made sure to keep him safe from capable grapplers every step of the way. They had to make quick adjustments when he fought Hafez on short notice, but how bad must your grappling be for you not to be able to handle the wrestling of a guy like Hafez – who went to a split decision against Anthony Ivy and had to get a redemption win against Evan Cutts. It’s not just this fight that we saw it, he also struggled against Ange Loosa on DWCS! I know I’m talking like JDM officially lost that Hafez fight when he didn’t, but he might as well have done and his stock has fallen as a result, and we all know the judges had their strings pulled.
The UFC are giving JDM a sink or swim kind of challenge here, pitting him against Gilbert Burns. Durinho is one of the most credentialled BJJ guys the UFC has ever seen, and he’s also got pretty decent wrestling to use a lay-and-pray gameplan when it suits him, like against Jorge Masvidal or Wonderboy. They are pretty key reference points when breaking this one down – superior striker vs well-rounded opponent who can utilise grappling. Both men may have been washed and nowhere near the level of JDM in that fight, but seeing Burns identify the gap in skill and weaponise it is pretty much all I need to see here to deem him a moderate sized favourite. If someone guarantees me that Burns is looking for takedowns here, I think he could be -400.
Obviously there are concerns on the return though – JDM’s a capable enough striker to stop Burns before he even gets his grappling going, or perhaps Burns fights like an idiot and doesn’t look to grapple. Regardless of which one you focus on, I think they should be quite low percentage outcomes here.
For that reason, I think a bet on Gilbert Burns is too good to pass up here at -137 or better. Personally I’d have had Burns at -200, with the potential for him to look so much steeper if he avoids the KO and grapples. I do know that JDM is a very popular fighter though, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this line get even better between now and then. For that reason, I’ll hold off for now and watch the line like a hawk. It’s been moving downwards towards a pick’em, so I’m glad I waited this long when I initially referenced this one last year.
How I line this fight: Gilbert Burns -200 (67%), Jack Della Maddalena +200 (33%)
Bet or pass: Nothing yet, but I will definitely have two units on Burns at -135 or better
Prop leans: Burns by Submission is on the cards here
Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael dos Anjos
RDA isn’t getting any younger. He’s 39 now and has one hell of a career, still competing in top 15 battles after 47 professional bouts. Unfortunately, he’s very much a finished product, and the weaknesses his opponents have found and established are going to be a nightmare for him here. That weakness is his takedown defence and inability to work back to his feet.
RDA’s last performance against Vicente Luque confirmed this, because there we saw a fighter lean on a skillset that’s obviously not his strong suit, and still have enough success to get the job done. Luque landed eight takedowns in that fight, bringing his average takedowns landed to 1.04 per fight – which highlights how little he’s ever really tried to wrestle before that. In fact, the last time he landed a takedown was against Leon Edwards in 2017. He had no right to be able to just pull a completely unproven skillset out of his back pocket and coherently win a fight with it…which is a testament to how big of an issue RDA has in terms of takedown defence and scrambling.
So with that in mind, now sounds like an absolutely terrible time to face a fighter like Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot’s a very good wrestler, but his BJJ ability is world class. Not only that, but he’s been improving his striking in the meantime, as briefly seen in the recent main event against Fiziev.
Another key reason why I’m so confident here, is that RDA’s very much been leaning on his grappling to find success these days. He got a nice lay up against Bryan Barbarena where he just went and found an easy choke, and takedowns were the difference in wins over Renato Moicano and Paul Felder. I’d be surprised if he even lands a takedown on Gamrot here, let alone is able to hold him down afterwards. Without that, RDA’s probably going to have to hope for a KO shot to win the fight…which isn’t something he’s done since he beat Donald Cerrone as Lightweight champion back in 2015, and hardly something Gamrot is historically susceptible to. Anything’s possible, but it’s not something I put a whole lot of percentage into.
So why am I seeing Gamrot at only -225 (69%) here? To me, this could well be a -400 spot, given that RDA’s weaknesses align very heavily to the Polish fighter’s strengths? This is another 4u spot for me, for sure.
How I line this fight: Mateusz Gamrot -400 (83%), Rafael dos Anjos +400 (17%)
Bet or pass: 4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
Bet Summary (ones in bold have been placed, ones that say "or better" have not yet been placed)
1u Oktagon - Max Holzer to Win (+120)
1u Oktagon - Adam Palasz & Jake McHugh to Win (+115)
2u Nassourdine Imavov to Win (-150)
2u Randy Brown to Win (-130) (parlay with Lainesse/Patterson U1.5 Rounds ✅)
3u Natalia Silva to Win (-120) (parlay with Jasmine Jasudavicius to Win✅)
1u Randy Brown & Natalia Silva to Win (+100)
1.5u Drew Dober to Win (+120 or better)
0.5u Drew Dober to Win by TKO/KO (+200 or better)
2u Gilbert Urbina to Win (-175)
2u Maquel Mederos to Win (-163 or better)
1.5u Armen Petrosyan to Win (+110)
4u Devin Clark to Win (-175)
3u Miranda Maverick to Win (-150)
1u Gilbert Burns to Win (-137 or better)
4u Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-225)
2023.12.12 14:44 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
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2023.12.12 14:44 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by FamiliarTextBee to Famosas_Latinas [link] [comments] |
2023.12.12 14:43 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by FamiliarTextBee to Famosas_Latinas [link] [comments] |
2023.12.12 14:43 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by FamiliarTextBee to Famosas_Latinas [link] [comments] |
2023.12.12 14:43 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by FamiliarTextBee to Famosas_Latinas [link] [comments] |
2023.12.12 14:43 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by FamiliarTextBee to Famosas_Latinas [link] [comments] |
2023.12.12 14:43 FamiliarTextBee Mayrin Villanueva
 | submitted by FamiliarTextBee to Famosas_Latinas [link] [comments] |