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Final Last Second Oscar Win Predictions 2024
2024.03.10 09:51 DaFunnyman109 Final Last Second Oscar Win Predictions 2024
I usually do two posts for these predictions, one in mid-February and one right before the ceremony, but with how set a lot of these categories seem to be this year, I really think it’s really only worth doing just the one post this time around. There’s only so much time in a day, and considering the way the tea leaves have been going this year, I figured I shouldn’t do two posts that would’ve been nearly identical.
Anyways, there’s really not that much time before the ceremony begins, so let’s get right to it:
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Anatomy Of A Fall
Should Win: Either Oppenheimer or The Holdovers
Shoulda Been Up There: The Boy & The Heron, May December, Origin
At this point, it would be a complete shock if anything besides Oppenheimer wins this award, but I’ve seen enough surprise Oscar wins to know that one should always have a #2 pick lined up for the big award. Over the past decade, at least one win from either directing or a screenplay category has been all but required for a Picture win, and if the big winner somehow isn’t Oppenheimer, then it’ll be one of the two likely screenplay winners taking home the final trophy of the night. Anatomy Of A Fall and American Fiction both overperformed with the Academy, but I would give the edge to Anatomy here: the directing and editing nominations that that movie got hold more weight, in my eyes, than the supporting actor and score noms that American Fiction got.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Shoulda Been Up There: Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy & The Heron
This has been Nolan’s award ever since Oppenheimer proved itself to be a box office juggernaut in addition to being a critical heavyweight. Maybe there’s a scenario where Glazer or Triet take this one out of nowhere, but even then, those are only 1% chances at best.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Could Win: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Should Win: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (Cillian’s a close #2 though - make it a tie!)
Shoulda Been Up There: Andrew Scott, All Of Us Strangers
The BAFTA and SAG combo is often good enough to get the Oscar with, and while Giamatti has a non-zero chance of winning here, it’s looking like this will be the time to reward Murphy and his talents.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Could Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon
Shoulda Been Up There: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
SAG has been a better predictor for this award than the BAFTAs have been, but both of these performances have been so acclaimed that I feel that if I predict Gladstone for the win, the momentum will just shift back to Stone once again. As Gladstone would be my personal pick for the win, I will compromise and predict Stone: if Stone wins, I get the prediction right, and if Gladstone wins, I will be immensely delighted by her winning here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Should Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Shoulda Been Up There: Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy Of A Fall
There’s a world where Gosling could upset, even without precursors, but I highly, highly doubt it’s this one. As it is, this will be a natural place for voters to reward Downey Jr.’s resilient and everlasting career.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Shoulda Been Up There: Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
The only category that I would be willing to call 100% locked - even detractors of The Holdovers seem to adore Randolph’s performance wholeheartedly.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Anatomy Of A Fall
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: The Holdovers
Shoulda Been Up There: The Boy & The Heron
Neon has done an incredible job of keeping Anatomy Of A Fall visible all throughout this season, even when setbacks like the France committee snub come its way. With the studio doing such a good job of keeping conversation around the film going, it looks as though that momentum will end up with a win here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: American Fiction
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Barbie
Shoulda Been Up There: Origin
There is a small chance that Barbie could upset with a win, as it hasn’t really gone up against American Fiction yet, but with the latter movie receiving both a USC Scripter award and a shock BAFTA win, it’d be a surprise if it didn’t take the trophy home come Sunday night.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Spider Man: Across The Spider-Verse
Could Win: The Boy & The Heron
Should Win: The Boy & The Heron
Shoulda Been Up There: Suzume
It’s tempting to say that the international block of the Academy could push Boy & The Heron over to a win, but I suspect that the majority of the American voters will find that film to be too abstract for their tastes. The name recognition and box office success will push Spider-Verse over the edge, though it doesn’t hurt that the film will also be a worthy, highly acclaimed winner in its own right.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will Win: The Zone Of Interest
Shoulda Been Up There: The Boy & The Heron
Every international BP nominee from the past decade has taken this award, and Zone has been overperforming so far this award season, even beyond just this category. One of the biggest locks of the night.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: 20 Days In Mariupol
Could Win: Four Daughters
I suspect that most will vote for 20 Days, even if they haven’t seen the film, as a sort of symbolic gesture, though those who have seen it seem to agree that even with that factor in play, the film would be a worthy winner for the category anyways.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Shoulda Been Up There: Spider Man: Across The Spider-Verse
The call to bring Nolan his overdue Oscar will also lead to his frequent collaborator, the similarly due Hoyte Van Hoytema, to win his first as well.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Shoulda Been Up There: Past Lives
Oppenhomies rejoice: This will easily be where the Oppenheimer sweep will be most felt, as winning this will bring the movie from “solid favorite” to “unstoppable contender”.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Barbie
Shoulda Been Up There: Wonka
A lot of people have Barbie winning here, but I’ve never, ever had it pinned to win this award for one simple reason: The Academy almost never goes for contemporary costumes. Sure, there is also a fantasy element to Barbie that will sway some, but I don’t think that any of the costumes in that movie are so far away from reality that they will blow the minds of voters who are on the fence between it and Poor Things.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Barbie
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie
Shoulda Been Up There: Asteroid City
An argument can - and frankly, should - be made for the gigantic practical sets in Poor Things, and how detailed and tactile they all are. However, only one movie here had its visual design and sensibilities really permeate the culture as a whole this year, and as much as some people love that movie, I think we can all agree that Poor Things wasn’t the film to do that.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Maestro
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Shoulda Been Up There: Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
Poor Things could win here if the Academy are particularly enthusiastic about that film, but Maestro has been earmarked for this award ever since it premiered. If there was enough distaste for the film to make it lose this award, we probably would have seen more of that disdain from voters and awards bodies by now.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Shoulda Been Up There: Past Lives
Goransson will make it two awards from two nominations this year, as his Oppenheimer score is, arguably, more widely beloved than his work for his first win, Black Panther, ever was.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”, Barbie
Could Win: “I’m Just Ken”, Barbie
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”, Barbie
Shoulda Been Up There: “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven”, Asteroid City
Maybe “I’m Just Ken” sneaks from behind for being a true, honest-to-god movie musical number, but with the Grammys throwing a big Song Of The Year award toward Barbie’s other nominated song, it’s looking like it will easily be Oscar #2 for Billie Eillish in almost as many years.
BEST SOUND
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Zone Of Interest
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Shoulda Been Up There: John Wick: Chapter 4
Zone Of Interest could surprise if voters find themselves particularly impacted by the film’s striking soundscapes, but otherwise this seems to be yet another place for Oppenheimer to take another award.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: The Creator
Could Win: Godzilla Minus One
Should Win: The Creator
Shoulda Been Up There: Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
The Godzilla campaign has pretty much just been one single late-breaking surge of goodwill toward the film, and while that may prove to be enough to give it the win, I suspect that the sheer amount of VFX precursors that The Creator got will still be too much of a roadblock for Godzilla to get past.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: War Is Over!
Could Win: Ninety-Five Senses
Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses or Pachyderme
War Is Over! will likely win on sentiment and name recognition alone, but Ninety-Five Senses could use those same aspects in different ways to get itself the win - namely, a moving, reflective story about a man facing his own memories, and the talents of actor Tim Blake Nelson and well-known filmmaker Jared Hess.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
Could Win: Red, White, And Blue
Should Win: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
A lot of the pundits have begun to entertain the possibility that someone else wins, considering how Henry Sugar would be, thematically, unlike most other winners in this category - and If that theory holds water, something like Red, White, And Blue could surprise here. But still, I think Wes Anderson is too big of a name and too major of a figure in the film industry for the Academy to ignore, especially when the path to win is so clear here. Honestly, I suspect most pundits predicting a non-Wes win are either bored out of their minds trying to come up with some sort of unexpected surprise, or making their distaste for Anderson’s short all too obvious.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: The Last Repair Shop
Could Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
The ABCs of Book Banning could win if most Academy members default to reading the titles instead of actually watching the films, but since most who have seen the shorts seem to consider that particular short to be a step down from the other ones, The Last Repair Shop could end up taking the win for being a more polished and uplifting piece.
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2024.03.08 21:03 BentisKomprakriev Final Scorechart Update for 2023-2024
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2024.02.18 01:15 Pitazboras Betting odds - pre-BAFTA edition
It's the half-way point between Oscar nominations and the awards night, and with BAFTAs right around the corner, it's time for the fourth weekly summary of what the betting markets tell us about the state of the competition. The previous entries:
[part 1],
[part 2],
[part 3].
What changed since last week?
Not that much, really. It's likely calm before the inevitable storm that will come after this weekend's winners are announced.
- Anatomy of a Fall continues its rise in the Best Original Screenplay category, widening its lead over The Holdovers to 18pp. Just 3 weeks ago it was 27pp behind.
- American Fiction is now a lone runner-up in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, overtaking Barbie. The category remains the most open, with 4 movies having at least 10% chances.
- Society of the Snow is on the verge of crossing the 10% threshold in the Best International category, having narrowed its gap to The Zone of Interest by 5pp. TZoI remains a massive favourite.
- Meanwhile, The Zone of Interest shows no signs of stopping in the Best Sound category, gaining another 10pp relative to Oppenheimer. The gap is still a massive 50pp but it was 75pp three weeks ago. If the trend continues, it will still end behind Oppenheimer come March 10th but so far the trend has only been accelerating.
- Poor Things got a boost after winning the Art Directors Guild award last week, narrowing its gap to the leader in a bunch of categories where it's currently a runner-up:
- In Best Production Design, it moved 10pp closer to Barbie and is now "just" 32pp behind.
- In Best Makeup and Hairstyling, it moved 9pp closer to Maestro, still 38pp to go.
- In Best Costume Design, it gained 8pp relative to Barbie and now trails by 36pp.
- In Best Visual Effects, the closest race this year, The Creator and Godzilla went from virtually tied to literally tied, with 42% chance to win each.
BAFTAs vs Oscars
With BAFTAs and Oscars sporting mostly similar categories, with a good chunk of contenders being nominated for both, let's see how the betting markets compare between the two.
Best Picture BAFTAs have only 5 nominees there, and all of them are nominated for Oscars, too. In all the other categories I discuss here BAFTAs have 6 nominees, one more than Oscars.
The odds are pretty similar - Oppenheimer leads with 79% (compared to 76% at Oscars), followed by Poor Things at 7% (same as Oscars). Markets give KotFM much higher chance to win in the Isles - 6%, compared to just 1% for an Oscar.
Best Director There are significant differences in who got in: only Nolan, Triet and Glazer got nominated for both, with Scorsese and Lanthimos only in Oscars and Cooper (Maestro), Payne (Holdovers) and Haigh (All of Us Strangers) only in BAFTAs.
Betting markets strongly favour Nolan, though not nearly as strongly as at the Oscars - 78% vs 86%. Triet is a runner-up with 7% (just 3% at Oscars).
Best Lead Actor Wright of American Fiction is the only Oscar nominee not nominated for BAFTAs, with Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) and Teo Yoo (Past Lives) closing the line-up.
Murphy is a favourite for both but his chances are significantly higher for tomorrow: 75% vs 66%. Giamatti is a distant second (just 13% at BAFTAs vs 27% at Oscars) and Cooper an even more distant third (7% at BAFTAs vs 5% at Oscars) for both events.
Best Lead Actress Only Stone, Hüller and Mulligan are nominated for both. Gladstone and Bening are out, Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are in.
With Gladstone, current runner-up for an Oscar, not even being nominated at BAFTAs, the race here is quite different. Stone is a strong favourite for tomorrow with 64% (vs 55% at Oscars). Hüller is next in line - her current chances to win are at 26%, compared to just 5% to win an Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor Downey, De Niro and Gosling are nominated for both; Brown and Ruffalo - only Oscars; Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Elordi (Priscilla) and Sessa (Holdovers) - only BAFTAs.
Chances in both races are almost identical - Downey in the lead (78% for each), followed by Gosling (7% at BAFTAs, 9% at Oscars) and De Niro (5% for each).
Best Supporting Actress Blunt, Brooks and Randolph are nominated for both; Ferrera and Foster - only Oscars; Hüller (TZoI), Pike (Saltburn) and Foy (AoUS) - only BAFTAs.
Randolph is a strong favourite for both, though her chances at BAFTAs are a tad weaker (77% vs 82%). Blunt is at the second place in both, and in turn her chances are slightly stronger tomorrow (10% vs 6%).
What awaits us this week?
Obviously, it's 77th British Academy Film Awards weekend, with almost every category having at least a couple Oscar nominees, so I won't list them all here. Oppenheimer leads with 13 nominations, followed by Poor Things with 11. Sounds familiar? The ceremony is tomorrow.
But even before that, 51st Annie Awards happen today, recognising achievements in animation. Some of Oscar nominees are competing, including The Boy and the Heron, Nimona, Spider-Man: AtS-V, Robot Dreams, War Is Over!, Elemental and even Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. Nimona leads with 9 nominations.
On Sunday we will have another big awards show alongside BAFTAs: People's Choice Awards, with a decisively more pop-culture oriented spin. Suffice to say, in the Movie of the Year category Barbenheimer will fight against Fast X, Mario movie and Taylor Swift concert film, among others. Barbie is the most nominated, with 8 nominations, followed by Oppenheimer with 6.
Current state of the (Oscar) race
Here are all the nominees with at least 10% chance to win for each category, the leader
in bold, change since last week (if any) in brackets.
Best Picture:
Best Director:
- Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer (86%) (+2)
Best Actor:
- Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer (66%) (+3)
- Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers (27%) (-1)
Best Actress:
- Emma Stone - Poor Things (55%) (+2)
- Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon (35%) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor:
- Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer (78%)
Best Supporting Actress:
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers (82%) (+1)
Best Original Screenplay:
- Anatomy of a Fall (53%) (+4)
- The Holdovers (35%) (-3)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- Oppenheimer (45%) (+1)
- American Fiction (22%)
- Barbie (21%) (-1)
- Poor Things (10%)
Best Animated Feature:
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (57%) (-2)
- The Boy and the Heron (34%) (+1)
Best International Feature Film:
- The Zone of Interest (79%) (-3)
Best Documentary Feature Film:
- 20 Days in Mariupol (73%) (+1)
- Four Daughters (11%)
Best Documentary Short Film:
- The ABCs of Book Banning (54%) (-3)
- The Last Repair Shop (26%) (+2)
- Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (18%) (+1)
Best Live Action Short Film:
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (77%) (-1)
Best Animated Short Film:
- Letter to a Pig (60%)
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko (24%)
Best Original Score:
Best Original Song:
- What Was I Made For? - Barbie (75%) (+1)
- I'm Just Ken - Barbie (15%)
Best Sound:
- Oppenheimer (70%) (-4)
- The Zone of Interest (20%) (+6)
Best Production Design:
- Barbie (59%) (-5)
- Poor Things (27%) (+5)
Best Cinematography:
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
- Maestro (63%) (-4)
- Poor Things (25%) (+5)
Best Costume Design:
- Barbie (63%) (-3)
- Poor Things (27%) (+5)
Best Film Editing:
- Oppenheimer (76%) (+1)
- Anatomy of a Fall (12%)
Best Visual Effects:
- The Creator (42%) (-2)
- Godzilla Minus One (42%)
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2024.01.23 05:45 ladyegg Final Nomination Predictions
Been waiting all season to finally post em, figured I’d throw mine out there before it’s too late.
Best Picture 1.
Oppenheimer 2.
Killers of the Flower Moon 3.
The Holdovers 4.
Poor Things 5.
Barbie - American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Maestro
- Past Lives
- The Zone of Interest 11 Saltburn
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse*
- The Color Purple
This list is too safe, something is gonna miss I know it-
Best Director 1. Christopher Nolan -
Oppenheimer 2. Martin Scorsese -
Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Jonathan Glazer -
The Zone of Interest 4. Alexander Payne -
The Holdovers 5. Yorgos Lanthimos -
Poor Things - Greta Gerwig - Barbie
- Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
- Bradley Cooper - Maestro
- Celine Song - Past Lives
- Hayao Miyazaki - The Boy and the Heron
Oops! All Men ….. And I’ve got Miyazaki in the alternates because fuck it.
Best Actress - Emma Stone - Poor Things
- Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller- Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan - Maestro
- Margot Robbie - Barbie
- Greta Lee - Past Lives
- Annette Bening - Nyad
- Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Origin
- Natalie Portman - May December
I reallyyyy wanna predict Greta Lee, but after BAFTA I’m gonna play it safe and keep in Margot Robbie.
Best Actor - Paul Giamatti - *he Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
- Bradley Cooper - Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
- Colman Domingo - Rustin
- Leonardo Dicaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Zac Effron - Iron Claw
Best Supporting Actress - Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
- Jodie Foster - Nyad
- Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
- Sandra Hüller - The Zone of Interest
- Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
- Julianne Moore - May December
- Rosamund Pike - Saltburn
- America Ferrera - Barbie
- Rachel McAdams - Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret
This industry shall rue the day they ignored Rachel McAdams for
“AYTG?IMM” Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling - Barbie
- Robert De Niro - Killers of The Flower Moon
- Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
- Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers
- Charles Melton - May December
- Willem Dafoe - Poor Things
No justice for Milo Machado Graner…
Best Original Screenplay - The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Past Lives
- Maestro
- May December
- Saltburn
- The Boy and the Heron
I feel like May December is gonna blank, but I’m not sure what else to slot in, unless Saltburn gets in.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Oppenheimer
- American Fiction
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- The Zone of Interest
- Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret
Best Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget
- Wish
- Suzume
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
- El Conde
- Saltburn
Best Film Editing - Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Maestro
- The Zone of Interest
- Ferrari
Best Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Wonka
- The Color Purple
- The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design - Poor Things
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Asteroid City
- Napoleon
- Wonka
- The Color Purple
- Maestro
** Best Makeup & Hairstyling**
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- Golda
- Society of the Snow
- The Last Voyage of the Demeter
- Oppenheimer
- Napoleon
- Beau is Afraid
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ferrari
I feel like there’s gonna be a surprising snub somewhere, and I have this really weird gut feeling about Demeter.
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Ferrari
- The Zone of Interest
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- The Killer
- Napoleon
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
- The Creator
I still think Barbie can get in here after CAS tho.
Best Visual Effects - The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
- Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny
- Society of the Snow
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Godzilla Minus One
- Poor Things
- Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
- Napoleon
- Rebel Moon
The Creator and Guardians 3 are the only guarantees for a nomination. The rest is literally a tossup, so I just took a wild guess. I am fairly certain that Poor Things will miss though, even if it made BAFTA.
Best Original Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Poor Things
- The Boy and the Heron
- The Zone of Interest
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Society of the Snow
- Barbie
- Elemental
Poor Things feels… weak here for some reason? I’m probably just crazy. And I’ve noticed a lot of people predicting John Williams for a name check via Indiana Jones, but I genuinely don’t see that happening…
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2024.01.23 02:57 Straight-Hyena-4537 FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
1.Oppenheimer (WINNER)
2.Killers of the Flower Moon
3.Barbie
4.Poor Things
5.The Holdovers
6.Zone of Interest
7.Anatomy of a Fall
8.Maestro
9.Past Lives
10.American Fiction
ALT:The Color Purple
Best Lead Actress
1.Emma Stone (WINNER)
2.Lilly Gladstone
3.Sandra Huller
4.Margot Robbie
5.Carey Mulligan
ALT:Fantasia Barrino
Best Lead Actor
1.Cillian Murphy (WINNER)
2.Bradley Cooper
3.Paul Giamatti
4.Jeffrey Wright
5.Colman Domingo
ALT:Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Supporting Actress
1.Da’Vine Joy Randolph (WINNER)
2.Danielle Brooks
3.Emily Blunt
4.Jodie Foster
5.Rosamund Pike
ALT:Penelope Cruz
Best Supporting Actor
1.Robert Downey Jr (WINNER)
2.Ryan Gosling
3.Robert De Niro
4.Willem Dafoe
5.Mark Ruffalo
ALT:Charles Melton
Best Director
1.Christopher Nolan (WINNER)
2.Martin Scorsese
3.Yorgos Lanthimos
4.Greta Gerwig
5.Johnathan Glazer
ALT:Alexander Payne
Best Original Screenplay
1.Past Lives (WINNER)
2.The Holdovers
3.Anatomy of a Fall
4.Maestro
5.Air
ALT:May December
Best Adapted Screenplay
1.Barbie (WINNER)
2.Poor Things
3.Oppenheimer
4.Killers of the Flower Moon
5.American Fiction
ALT:Zone of Interest
Best Score
1.Oppenheimer (WINNER)
2.Killers of the Flower Moon
3.Poor Things
4.Spiderman:Across the Spiderverse
5.Zone of Interest
ALT:Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Cinematography
1.Oppenheimer (WINNER)
2.Poor Things
3.Maestro
4.Killers of the Flower Moon
5.Zone of Interest
ALT:Saltburn
Best Production Design
1.Barbie (WINNER)
2.Poor Things
3.Oppenheimer
4.Zone of Interest
5.Napoleon
ALT:Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Costume Design
1.Barbie (WINNER)
2.Poor Things
3.Killers of the Flower Moon
4.Oppenheimer
5.Napoleon
ALT:The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1.Maestro (WINNER)
2.Poor Things
3.Oppenheimer
4.Napoleon
5.Golda
ALT:The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Animated Feature
1.Spiderman:Across the Spiderverse (WINNER)
2.The Boy and the Heron
3.Elemental
4.Nimona
5.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles:Mutant Mayhem
ALT:Suzume
Best International Feature
1.Zone of Interest (WINNER)
2.Society of the Snow
3.Fallen Leaves
4.Perfect Days
5.The Taste of Things
ALT:20 Days in Mariupol
Best Original Song
1.I’m Just Ken (Barbie) (WINNER)
2.What Was I Made For? (Barbie)
3.The Fire Inside (Flamin Hot)
4.Road to Freedom (Rustin)
5.It Never Went Away (American Symphony)
ALT:Keep it Movin (The Color Purple)
Best Visual Effects
1.The Creator (WINNER)
2.Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3
3.Napoleon
4.Society of the Snow
5.Poor Things
ALT:Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Editing
1.Oppenheimer (WINNER)
2.Killers of the Flower Moon
3.Poor Things
4.Barbie
5.The Holdovers
ALT:Maestro
Best Sound
1.Oppenheimer (WINNER)
2.Maestro
3.Zone of Interest
4.Ferrari
5.Napoleon
ALT:Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Documentary Feature
1.20 Days in Mariupol (WINNER)
2.Beyond Utopia
3.American Symphony
4.Four Daughters
5.Going to Mars:The Nikki Giovanni Project
ALT:Still: A Micheal J Fox Movie
Best Live Action Short Film
1.Red White and Blue (WINNER)
2.The Anne Frank Gift Shop
3.Strange Way of Life
4.The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
5.The Shepherd
Best Animated Short Film
1.Koerkorter (WINNER)
2.Letter to a Pig
3.Ninety Five Senses
4.Our Uniform
5.Once Upon a Studio
Best Documentary Short Film
1.Camp Courage (WINNER)
2.Deciding Vote
3.The Last Repair Shop
4.The ABCs of Book Banning
5.Last Song from Kahul
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2024.01.22 19:41 EricTweener 2024 Oscar nomination predictions
Predictions, generally in order of likelihood of nomination, for the 96th Academy Awards. Properly italicized for your reading pleasure.
Best Picture - Oppenheimer
- The Holdovers
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- Maestro
- Anatomy of a Fall
- American Fiction
- The Zone of Interest
- Past Lives
Alternatives:
The Color Purple,
Saltburn,
Origin Pretty solid lineup of ten, I wouldn't normally copy PGA but I really don't know which movie the Academy would snub. I don't have much faith in
TCP but it made SAG Ensemble and has been doing well on the acting front. If
Saltburn is actually surging I guess it could make it here.
Origin, however, is a really weird one.
To Leslie tactics have been demonstrated to work, but this movie doesn't feel like it has enough overall support to supplant any of the ten. I did think the same thing about Riseborough last year, so we'll see.
Best Director - Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Alternatives: Justine Triet –
Anatomy of a Fall, Greta Gerwig –
Barbie, Celine Song –
Past Lives This is really hard to predict. I held off on Payne for the longest time but the precursors, his history with the branch and the film's strength make it hard for me to leave him off. Lanthimos' BAFTA snub did make me move him down as they did also foreshadow Villeneuve's exclusion for
Dune, although the two obviously aren't fully comparable. I feel weird about no women making it, but it's far from unprecedented.
Best Actor - Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternative: Colman Domingo –
Rustin I'm going to be somewhat daring by sticking with DiCaprio. I've felt for a while that he could follow the same path as Michelle Williams last year, but Domingo has been stronger than I thought. I'm not very sure about the last slot, but I have DiCaprio.
Best Actress - Emma Stone – Poor Things
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro
- Margot Robbie – Barbie
Alternatives: Greta Lee –
Past Lives, Annette Bening –
Nyad, Fantasia Barrino –
The Color Purple... Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor –
Origin?
Pretty basic lineup, don't think I need to elaborate. If
Origin really is this year's small film with a giant heart I don't think an Actress nomination is impossible, especially if the support in Best Picture is strong enough.
Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Alternatives: Dominic Sessa –
The Holdovers, Charles Melton –
May December, Sterling K. Brown -
American Fiction Another unoriginal lineup, but I feel like at least one of the last two slots has to be for
Poor Things. Any combination of either with one of the other three makes sense to me. If both
PT guys end up missing, I'll be surprised. If I were really bold I'd throw Damon in, but I'm not.
Best Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
- Jodie Foster – Nyad
- Julianne Moore – May December
Alternatives: Sandra Hüller –
The Zone of Interest, Rosamund Pike –
Saltburn, Penélope Cruz –
Ferrari, America Ferrara –
Barbie, Rachel McAdams –
Are You There God? It's Me, Delusion. Foster does maybe feel like the type to hit the precursors but miss in the end, but I think she's pretty safe. I think the field is open enough for Moore to make it even if the movie's tanked with the industry. McAdams is little more than a copediction at this point, but after Cruz two years ago I think any big industry name with passion can make it, precursors be damned.
Best Original Screenplay - The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Past Lives
- Maestro
- May December
Alternatives:
Saltburn,
Air Pretty locked top three and
Maestro looks to have a good chance even if the screenplay has been one of the more criticized aspects.
May December hasn't been doing very well overall but I can still see it making it here.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- American Fiction
Alternatives:
The Zone of Interest,
All of Us Strangers Seems like a comfortable top five, although
TZOI making it in wouldn't be the biggest shock.
Best Animated Feature Film - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Alternatives:
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem,
The Super Mario Bros. Movie,
Suzume,
Robot Dreams Chicken Run definitely has things going against it, but BAFTA are a great predictor for this category. I don't think
TMNT has a big advantage, but still could make it.
Best International Feature Film - The Zone of Interest
- Society of the Snow
- Perfect Days
- Fallen Leaves
- Totem
Alternatives:
The Taste of Things,
20 Days in Mariupol,
Io Capitano... all of them
I really don't know with this category this year so I just threw something together. The top two are easy, but I feel like the rest could be almost anything.
Best Documentary Feature - 20 Days in Mariupol
- Beyond Utopia
- Bobi Wine: The People's President
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- American Symphony
Alternatives: All of them except the
Midnight Cowboy one
A category I'm even less sure about. I'm comfortable with the top three; otherwise, anything goes.
Best Documentary Short Subject - The Last Repair Shop
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- Last Song from Kabul
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Deciding Vote
Alternatives:
Camp Courage,
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games,
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó Based on Gold Derby expert predictions as usual. Having seen most of these, they make sense.
Best Live Action Short Film - The After
- The Anne Frank Gift Shop
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- The Shepherd
- Strange Way of Life
Alternatives:
An Avocado Pit,
Good Boy,
Red, White and Blue Again, expert predictions. These seem a touch basic for what the category usually does, but I won't argue.
Best Animated Short Film - Pete
- Once upon a Studio
- WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
- Letter to a Pig
- Eeva
Alternatives:
Humo,
Boom,
I'm Hip Best Original Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Alternatives:
The Zone of Interest,
The Boy and the Heron,
Society of the Snow,
Elemental,
Saltburn I think this lineup makes sense. I used to be skeptical of
Spider-Verse's chances of making the top five, but seeing as it's made everything and is actively campaigned I finally have it in. Also, John Williams.
Best Original Song - "What Was I Made For?" – Barbie
- "I'm Just Ken" – Barbie
- "The Fire Inside" – Flamin' Hot
- "Road to Freedom" – Rustin
- "It Never Went Away" – American Symphony
Alternatives: "Am I Dreaming" –
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, "Keep It Movin'" –
The Color Purple, "High Life" –
Flora and Son, "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" –
Killers of the Flower Moon A standard lineup. I'm pretty confident these are the two
Barbie songs, and Diane Warren is inevitable. The rest I feel could go many ways.
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
- Ferrari
- Barbie
Alternatives:
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One,
Killers of the Flower Moon,
The Killer There's pretty good BAFTA overlap in this category so it's mostly the same.
Best Production Design - Poor Things
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Asteroid City
Alternatives:
The Zone of Interest,
Maestro,
Napoleon,
Saltburn,
Wonka A very strong top four. I have
Asteroid City in despite
The French Dispatch's surprising exclusion because, frankly, it's boring and somewhat unrealistic to only have BP nominees in, and
Asteroid City feels like it fits the bill for a single-tech nominee.
Best Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- El Conde
Alternatives:
The Zone of Interest,
Saltburn The ASC lineup.
El Conde already made sense as a
Bardo-type nom but it making ASC makes me pretty confident in it.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Golda
- Napoleon
Alternatives:
Society of the Snow, Killers of the Flower Moon,
Ferrari Golda just kind of fits as the odd movie that gets into this category. I also have
Napoleon as the usual less prosthetic-focused slot.
Best Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Oppenheimer
Alternatives:
Maestro,
Wonka I didn't want to predict just the BAFTA lineup like I did last year, but this looks safe enough.
Best Film Editing - Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
Alternatives:
The Zone of Interest,
Killers of the Flower Moon,
American Fiction,
Maestro Not the most confident in this, but it seems like something the branch would do.
Best Visual Effects - The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
- Napoleon
Alternatives:
Godzilla Minus One,
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,
Poor Things,
Society of the Snow Lastly, we have my worst category for predicting nominations; I got 3/5 last year and 2/5 the year before. I've pretty much always been confident in
Indy, and the BAFTAs (and the VFX reel) have finally sold me on
M:I.
Napoleon's admittedly a somewhat spineless pick. I'm not usually a stickler for precursors but
Godzilla's weak performance so far has put me off predicting it. I know the reception at the bakeoff was promising, but that's not always reliable considering
Welcome to Chechnya had a strong showing while
Love and Monsters was more lukewarm. I'm not ruling out
Spider-Verse, and
Poor Things may defy my expectations in this category again. Or they'll nominate
Rebel Moon to mess with me.
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2024.01.22 09:17 DaFunnyman109 Final 2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions
Alright, here we go. No turning back now.
For the first time ever, I’ll also be doing the shorts categories this year. I can’t guarantee that I’ll be able to touch upon them every year, but this year’s field has been unusually notable and so I figured that I could take some time to delve upon those as well.
Also, quick note: of all the major contenders, as of now I am yet to see
The Zone Of Interest,
All Of Us Strangers,
The Iron Claw,
Society Of The Snow,
Nyad,
Saltburn,
Priscilla, and
Origin, among others.
BEST PICTURE - Oppenheimer (Universal)
- The Holdovers (Focus Features)
- Barbie (Warner Bros.)
- Poor Things (Searchlight)
- Killers Of The Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
- Anatomy Of A Fall (Neon)
- American Fiction (MGM/Amazon)
- Maestro (Netflix)
- The Zone Of Interest (A24)
- Past Lives (A24)
(Alt: The Color Purple (Warner Bros.))
The ten here seem so locked that I’m scared of what could potentially leave the lineup.
As a movie that most consider challenging, I had expected
Zone Of Interest to hit more snags, but that hasn’t really happened at all: Golden Globes and the PGA somehow
both went for it, even as most were predicting more populist contenders to show up in those places.
I think that the film most at risk here is, unfortunately,
Past Lives: it’s looking to get into Oscar morning with only a Screenplay nomination to bolster its Picture package. Plenty of films have gotten in on screenplay noms alone, but since all the other films here are on track to get at least two above-the-line nominations, having only one puts
Past Lives in a precarious spot. It’s probably still not enough to take it out of the lineup, but it’s definitely cause for concern in such a crowded year.
Which brings me to what the alternatives could be. So many of the movies that could sneak in seem just as likely to be left out of the Oscars entirely, and even if they’re solid bets in one category -
May December in screenplay, for example - they’re floundering in all the other categories that one would need to get a Picture nom. It’s to the point where picking an alternative isn’t so much about what would be the most likely to get in, as much as it is about picking what’s least likely to be snubbed entirely here.
I can’t get a hold on what in the world is going on with
Color Purple - the ways in which it keeps missing and underperforming this awards season should be studied for years to come - but it’s still a solid bet for a Supporting Actress nom, it has plenty of ways to sneak into other categories, and even though its box office has been underwhelming, it’s still made way more money than most of the contenders here. If there had to be an alternative to this 10, it would still probably be
Color Purple by default, even despite the near-historic underperformance. Still, the Academy could give a last-second,
Phantom Thread-esque surge to one of the other contenders, though given the sheer amount of other options and the unpredictability of such a situation, there’s almost no use guessing which movie could fill that void. Best to keep a pin in on this one, just in case it isn’t the established ten.
BEST DIRECTOR - Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsesse, Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone Of Interest
- Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
- Justine Triet, Anatomy Of A Fall
(Alt: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things)
The only two secure, no-chance-of-missing locks here are Nolan and Scorcese. Both have the respect and recognition to guarantee their nominations here, while most of the other directors have one but not the other amongst the directing branch.
For the next two spots, the general international bent of this branch and the exceptional acclaim of the two international films this year all across the board have led me to believe that both Glazer and Triet will get in here. I think Glazer will have the edge within the branch since the all-encompassing and uncompromising approach to his direction in
Zone Of Interest sounds right up their alley, though Triet and her film have been respected enough by the European branch to get plenty of nominations and several wins at each of their precursors, such as the BAFTAs and the European Film Awards.
Payne will likely get the final spot, particularly after a surprising BAFTA mention, though I can definitely see arguments for Lanthimos and Gerwig taking that slot. Either way, I think this will be the rare year that matches only 3 out of 5 with the DGA, though I’m not ruling out the possibility that Triet gets left out for one of the other two choices here.
BEST ACTOR - Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
(Alt: Leonardo Dicaprio, Killers Of The Flower Moon)
The top 4 seem solid here, and with Dicaprio campaigning mainly for Gladstone instead of himself, that leaves open a spot for one of the non-BP contenders here. For the final spot, Domingo has all the precursors necessary to round out the category, plus a slight edge in awareness with his other role in
The Color Purple. However, Andrew Scott still remains a possibility despite his BAFTA miss, and the spot could also still just go to Dicaprio, if only for his name recognition and his general status as one of the great actors of our time.
BEST ACTRESS - Emma Stone, Poor Things
- Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy Of A Fall
- Margot Robbie, Barbie
- Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
(Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro)
Yeah, yeah, yeah: I’m still on the “Carey Mulligan gets snubbed” train. Almost every year, there’s at least one performance that makes all of the precursors - GG, CC, SAG, and BAFTA - and
still misses despite all the acclaim. Most have Robbie pinned as that possibility, but with Mulligan stuck playing second banana to Cooper for most of
Maestro, I think this fits the bill perfectly for the sort of “shock snub” that we seem to get every Oscar morning, and I think this category is just as fine a place as any to stake a “no guts, no glory” pick on. (For the record, I do still think
Maestro is firmly in place for a BP nomination, and that it will still get a sizable nomination haul even if it misses here.)
What’s more, a lot of the acting nominees don’t end up coming from BP films - in the past 10 years, there have been almost as many nominees that have come from non-BP films, as there are nominees from BP films. Because of that, I refuse to believe that most of the acting categories this year will consist entirely of performances from Best Picture films, and to that end, I’m going with Fantasia in
Color Purple for that final slot: Her appearance at BAFTA, particularly over Gladstone, gives me faith that her performance can be recognized here, even if her film as a whole gets otherwise overlooked.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Robert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
- Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
(Alt: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things)
I expect that
Poor Things will have a decent nomination day, but not a perfect one, and it’s in this category where I expect this to be the most felt. There doesn’t really seem to be a consensus over whether Ruffalo or Dafoe - or even both - will make the final five on nomination morning, and it’s because of this that I propose another possibility: that
neither make the final five, like what happened at BAFTA. This doesn’t seem like what happened to
Belfast and
The Fabelmans, where the widely expected pick ends up getting upstaged by their co-star; here, there doesn’t seem to be any consensus over whether Ruffalo or Dafoe has the upper hand at this point.
If the Academy can’t decide which of the two gets in, then I think there’s a genuine chance that both get left in the dust at the end of the day. If I had to say which one has the better shot, I think Dafoe has an edge here with the SAG nom, but with so much competition, I can see a world where he could be left out entirely, along with Ruffalo.
As for the other nominees, a Sterling K. Brown nom means that the category will still go 4 out of 5 with SAG, while Sessa seems like the sort of “newcomer” nom that gets given out every once in a while - though Melton could also be that if the Academy isn’t as allergic to
May December as I expect them to be at this point.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Jodie Foster, Nyad
- America Ferrara, Barbie
(Alt: Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple)
Randolph is almost guaranteed for the win - I might as well put in a bunch of empty spaces between #1 and #2 just to convey how much she’s in the lead - but the last couple spots do still provide a bit of interesting suspense here.
I will say that America Ferrara has a chance to get in here, no matter how badly the rest of this sub wants to see her out. In both the times that I saw
Barbie in theaters, people
applauded after her monologue, and everything that I’ve heard says that that’s the case in industry screenings as well. Even if the rest of the role may be underwritten, having such a big showcase may be able to get her a nom just by itself, especially when the movie is a rock-solid bet for a Picture nomination. Besides, when Jamie Lee Curtis won for such a small role
just last season, Ferrara having both similar industry goodwill and a slightly larger role could work wonders for her.
To me, this is also the only category that really seems open enough for the sort of double nomination that’s been happening these past few years, and while a month ago I would’ve said that
Color Purple was an easy guarantee for double noms, the film’s wild underperformance across almost every precursor has put that possibility in doubt. Still, this stat has been so persistent these past few years that even a film like
Judas & The Black Messiah can sneak in a sudden, shocking LaKeith Stanfield mention to go along with its expected nom for Daniel Kaluuya - that alone is enough reason to keep Taraji in as an alternate, no matter how many other ways this category could end up.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - The Holdovers
- Anatomy Of A Fall
- Past Lives
- May December
- Maestro
(Alt: The Boy & The Heron)
With its general underperformance in the acting categories thus far, it seems as though
May December is destined to be our yearly “sole screenplay” nominee - though I worry that
Past Lives could also end up being that if its Picture chances don’t quite align.
With criticism over
Maestro’s screenplay being widespread enough among critics, pundits, and viewers to be notable, I do wonder what the alternate here could be - everything’s in place for the writers to do a shock inclusion here if they really wanted to single out a particular film - but there’s just as much of a chance for the writers to go for the expected five as there is for them to take a big swerve. Of all the possibilities for what a surprise nominee could be, I’ll take a flyer on
The Boy & The Heron getting in here - there hasn’t really been a chance until now for a non-Animated branch to properly recognize Miyazaki, and I can see the ambition of the simultaneously autobiographical and metaphorical script seriously impressing some writers - but even I’d be (joyously) surprised if that ends up actually making the cut.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Barbie
- American Fiction
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
(Alt: All Of Us Strangers)
The top five here seems ironclad, with
All Of Us Strangers being the spoiler by default. The BAFTA miss puts
Killers at the bottom of the five by default, though with the pedigree involved there, it’d still be a curveball if that ended up missing.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
- The Boy & The Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
(Alt: Robot Dreams)
I want to see a
Suzume nom here so, so badly, but with it and
Robot Dreams competing for even just the
chance to sneak into that fifth slot, I’m not going to get my hopes up here. As far as winners go, I think the overall popularity and general renown of
Spider-Verse will be enough to give it the win, though I could see
Boy & The Heron also winning, particularly if the writer’s branch decides, with Miyazaki’s auteur status, to throw him the final slot in Original Screenplay out of nowhere.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - The Zone Of Interest (UK)
- Society Of The Snow (Spain)
- 20 Days In Mariupol (Ukraine)
- Fallen Leaves (Finland)
- Perfect Days (Japan)
(Alt: The Taste of Things (France))
This feels like
Zone of Interest’s to lose, unless one of the other contenders can establish itself as a more uplifting frontrunner. It’s a crowded game for those last four spots, though: of all the movies in the shortlist, only Armenia’s
Amerikatsi and Morocco’s
The Mother of All Lies feel as though they don’t have any chance of making the final list. I’ve landed on
Society because of Netflix’s influence,
20 Days in Mariupol as a means of showing support for Ukraine, and
Perfect Days and
Fallen Leaves because of their strong festival runs, but any number of other films, such as
The Taste Of Things,
Io Capitano,
Godland,
Totem, and
Four Daughters could all conceivably sneak in here. Prepare for a surprise here, then, just in case.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Beyond Utopia
- 20 Days In Mariupol
- Four Daughters
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
(Alt: Stamped From The Beginning)
This branch is usually not kind to popularly known docs based on famous figures, so my first instinct was to leave out any film that seemed to follow that template faithfully. However, it looks as though at least one of
Still or
American Symphony will make it, based on both movies getting necessary precursors for the doc award. Of these, I’m going with
Still, mainly because its earlier release seems to have kept it more low-profile at this point compared to
American Symphony.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- The Zone Of Interest
(Alt: The Color Purple)
This is likely
Oppenheimer’s to lose, and the rest of the field seems pretty locked up here as well. Maybe something like
El Conde or
Saltburn could surprise, particularly after both movies got cinematography precursors, but then again: which of these five would they even replace here?
BEST FILM EDITING - Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy Of A Fall
(Alt: Poor Things)
We’ve got a real Whoppenheimer sweep coming up… although, if all the talk about
Barbie winning BP actually does hold water, maybe that could play spoiler?
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Poor Things
- Barbie
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- The Color Purple
(Alt: Maestro)
I have doubts about
Barbie winning here because of the contemporary nature of the designs - that’s not something that the Academy usually gives the win to, and while there is a fantasy element to it as well, I still don’t think there’s enough of that to really call
Barbie a lock for the win at all. With both the period details and fantasy stylizations that this branch loves,
Poor Things strikes me as a solid bet for the win here.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Asteroid City
(Alt: The Zone Of Interest)
A
Poor Things/
Barbie split in these categories seems to make the most sense here, with
Barbie taking the win here with some of the most distinct and culturally omnipresent sets of the year.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING - Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Napoleon
- Society Of The Snow
(Alt: Beau Is Afraid)
This is
Maestro’s award in the same way that this was
Vice’s award - even if it doesn’t win Best Actor, the overall makeup job is still impressive enough to almost automatically give the movie the win here. That all being said, all the notable omissions and surprises in the shortlist should at least make those last couple of slots interesting.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider Verse
- Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny
- Poor Things
(Alt: American Fiction)
Dread it, run from it: John Williams still arrives.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - “I’m Just Ken”, Barbie (Mark Ronson)
- “What Was I Made For”, Barbie (Billie Eilish)
- “The Fire Inside”, Flamin’ Hot (Diane Warren)
- “Keep It Movin’”, The Color Purple (Halle Bailey)
- “It Never Went Away”, American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
(Alt: “Road To Freedom”, Rustin (Lenny Kravitz))
Recent winner Jon Batiste may prove himself to be a branch favorite if he gets in again this year, although there are plenty of other options available if the branch wants to take a different kind of swerve here.
BEST SOUND - Oppenheimer
- The Zone Of Interest
- Maestro
- Barbie
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1
(Alt: Napoleon)
This looks like a year where the lineup is mainly Best Picture films, though since this branch usually likes to put at least one non-BP blockbuster in each year, something like
Mission Impossible can easily make its way into the lineup even if it doesn’t get traction in other categories.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - The Creator
- Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
- Godzilla: Minus One
- Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny
- Napoleon
(Alt: Spider Man: Across The Spider-Verse)
Some people have
Poor Things in here, but I think that’s mainly a
Shape Of Water situation: despite the film’s acclaim and the frequent effects throughout, the VFX still isn’t “in-depth” enough for the branch to bite. I doubt this year will have any BP contenders in the category, particularly since
Oppenheimer got left out of the fray here. Lacking that, the win will probably go to the movie that the Academy considers to have the most innovative effects, and while one can - and probably should - make the argument that
Spider-Verse has the most creative work here, I suspect that the Academy’s infamous anti-animation bias will strike once again. That leaves
The Creator: despite a rather muted reception overall, the movie should still win here for having effects that were not only extensive and well-integrated, but thoroughly economic as well.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT - War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
- Pete
- Letter To A Pig
- 27
- Ninety-Five Senses
(Alt: Pachyderme)
In a year where Disney fatigue seems to be at an all-time high, I have a hard time believing that a hagiographic advertisement for the company will be anywhere close to making the cut. That’s not to say that the studio’s influence won’t be felt, however:
War Is Over!,
Pete, and
I’m Hip can all be nominated here by leveraging the craft and pedigree of the current and former Disney animators that made them.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
- Knight Of Fortune
- The After
- Invincible
- Red, White and Blue
(Alt: The Anne Frank Gift Shop)
This branch has been trying desperately to keep this category a space for up-and-coming filmmakers, but an increase in celebrity-backed submissions has made that difficult. As such, it’s hard to predict a lineup this year that doesn’t have any famous people attached to it, with the likes of David Oyelowo, Ben Whishaw, Brittany Snow, and even John Travolta each appearing in a different short. I suspect that this branch will make an effort to still have some relatively unknown filmmakers in the mix here, but even then, it’s hard to picture that this year’s lineup will be entirely free of stars.
There’s a question over whether the two big directors here, Wes Anderson and Pedro Aldomovar, can make it in here, particularly after the branch snubbed the latter’s previous short a couple years ago. Anderson’s lack of an Oscar may keep him from being blanked here - even if the branch is fully aware that letting him in means that he will likely win in a landslide, they may still consider him enough of a truly notable auteur to let this slide, just this once.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
- Camp Courage
- The Last Repair Shop
- Island In Between
- Wings Of Dust
(Alt: The Barber Of Little Rock)
This branch tends to do a mix between regularly nominated favorites and newish voices, instead of spotlighting only one or the other, so it’s probably good to do a balance of the two here.
If Dreams Were Lightning is directed by Ramin Bahrani, who in 2021 was nominated in Adapted Screenplay for his film
The White Tiger, and
The Last Repair Shop was made by previous nominee Kris Bowers and previous winner Ben Proudfoot; both of those strike me as having the sort of pedigree that the branch won’t turn their noses up at this year. I also expect the one Netflix-backed contender,
Camp Courage, to make it in through the streamer’s reach and general campaigning know-how.
As for what could take the last two spots, two choices stood out to me here:
Island In Between seems like the sort of potent mix between lyrical filmmaking and informational storytelling that can make an impression on the branch, while
Wings Of Dust strikes me as the sort of journalistic piece that really puts the “documentary” in documentary short. Still, the truth is that there can always be a swerve in this category, so I’m keeping an eye on some of the more independent shorts, such as
The Barber Of Little Rock and
Oasis, to surprise here.
Total Predicted Nominations (BP nominees in bold):
12 noms -
Oppenheimer 11 noms -
Barbie 10 noms -
Killers Of The Flower Moon 8 noms -
Poor Things 7 noms -
The Holdovers 6 noms -
Maestro 5 noms -
Anatomy Of A Fall,
The Zone Of Interest 4 noms -
American Fiction, The Color Purple
3 noms - Napoleon
2 noms - Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny,
Past Lives, Society Of The Snow, Spider Man: Across The Spider-Verse, 20 Days In Mariupol
1 nom - All of the shorts, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy & The Heron, The Creator, Elemental, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla: Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
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2024.01.22 06:07 28283920 Final Oscar Predictions
Coming back from the dead because it’s that time of the year where everyone posts their final predictions. I don’t feel that confident in mine to be honest but here goes nothing.
Best Picture - Oppenheimer
- The Holdovers
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Maestro
- Anatomy of a Fall
- American Fiction
- Past Lives
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: All of Us Strangers, Saltburn, The Color Purple, May December, Origin
Oppenheimer is winning as we all know. I kinda feel like this 10 is too easy but I just don’t know how something else could get in at this point. I’ve heard people say AOUS or Saltburn could sneak in, and as much as I’d love to see it as those are my top 2 of the year, I don’t have any faith in The Academy to be cool enough to do that. I’m not buying the Origin thing, but of course I didn’t buy Andrea Riseborough last year and that happened so who knows.
Best Director - Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
- Martin Scorsese (KOTFM)
- Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
- Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
- Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Alts: Justine Triet, Yorgos Lanthimos, Bradley Cooper
Nolan is really the only locked nomination here. I don’t think The Academy would snub Scorsese so I’m keeping him in, and Gerwig I think is more solidly in than people think. Glazer is definitely in if Zone makes picture, and I think Payne is in since he’s like never made BAFTA before. I’m hopedicting a Lanthimos snub tbh.
Best Actor - Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
- Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
- Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
- Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Alts: Colman Domingo, Leonardo DiCaprio, Barry Keoghan
First I’d like to just say that I do not buy the Paul Giamatti winning thing. I think CCA was a fluke and Cillian will take BAFTA, SAG, and the Oscar. I’ve decided to stick with Andrew Scott which I know is an unpopular opinion. Yes he missed BAFTA, but if it weren’t for the jury he would have gotten in. I saw AOUS yesterday and I just can’t fathom how a performance that good could miss. Plus, it can’t be that easy with the Oscars and there has to be a surprise/passion pick somewhere so I think that’ll be Andrew Scott here. Maybe I’m being insane for predicting that but I just can’t bring myself to drop him.
Best Actress - Emma Stone (Poor Things)
- Lily Gladstone (KOTFM)
- Margot Robbie (Barbie)
- Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
- Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Alts: Greta Lee, Annette Bening, Fantasia Barrino, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
I have a very difficult time seeing anything else other than this 5. Really rooting for Gladstone but I just don’t think I can predict her after she missed BAFTA. I’m terrified we get the awful outcome, like last year when De Armas and Riseborough got in, where both Bening and Ellis-Taylor make it in which would be horrendous. Hopefully we can avoid that this time around.
Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
- Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
- Robert De Niro (KOTFM
- Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
- Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Alts: Mark Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe
Top 3 are locked and I’m taking a risk here and saying both Poor Things men get snubbed. Yes it’s a bit of a hopediction but clearly people are having a hard time nominating both of them, to the point where they both missed BAFTA. So really, it’s not that much of a stretch to think they could both miss here.
Best Supporting Actress - Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
- Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
- Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
- Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
- Rosamund Pike (Saltburn)
Alts: Jodie Foster, Penelope Cruz, America Ferrera, Julianne Moore
This category is pretty open so I figured I’d just go with the buzz and predict the Hüller double nomination. I feel like Saltburn has to get somewhere so I put in Pike who I feel is more likely than some might think. Brooks is vulnerable in my opinion but it’s not worth predicting her to miss right now.
Best Original Screenplay - Anatomy of a Fall
- Past Lives
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- May December
Alt: Saltburn
Best Adapted Screenplay - Barbie
- American Fiction
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: All of Us Strangers
Best Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Saltburn
Best Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Maestro
Best Editing - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
Best Makeup/Hairstyling - Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Golda
Best Production Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Saltburn
Best Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Poor Things
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song - I’m Just Ken (Barbie)
- What Was I Made For (Barbie)
- Road to Freedom (Rustin)
- The Fire Inside (Flamin’ Hot)
- It Never Went Away (American Symphony)
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Barbie
Best Visual Effects - The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best International Feature - The Zone of Interest
- Society of the Snow
- Fallen Leaves
- The Teachers’ Lounge
- The Taste of Things
Best Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Nimona
Best Documentary Feature - 20 Days in Mariupol
- American Symphony
- Beyond Utopia
- Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
- Four Daughters
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2024.01.21 23:53 Horror_Technician595 Alright time to post my finalized (sans Short) Oscar nomination predictions
(For context since these are only nom predictions, everything will be listed in alphabetical order. Saving the rankings for after we know about all the categories' actual noms.)
Best Picture:
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, Origin, Saltburn
Best Director:
- Jonathan Glazer
- Yorgos Lanthimos
- Christopher Nolan
- Martin Scorsese
- Justine Triet
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Greta Gerwig, Alexander Payne
Best Actor:
- Bradley Cooper
- Leonardo DiCaprio
- Paul Giamatti
- Cillian Murphy
- Jeffrey Wright
Alts: Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott
Best Actress:
- Lily Gladstone
- Sandra Hüller
- Carey Mulligan
- Margot Robbie
- Emma Stone
Alts: Fantasia Barrino, Annette Bening, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Greta Lee
Best Supporting Actor:
- Willem Dafoe
- Robert De Niro
- Robert Downey, Jr.
- Ryan Gosling
- Mark Ruffalo
Alts: Sterling K. Brown, Charles Melton, Dominic Sessa
Best Supporting Actress:
- Emily Blunt
- Danielle Brooks
- America Ferrera
- Rosamund Pike
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Alts: Penélope Cruz, Jodie Foster, Claire Foy, Sandra Hüller, Julianne Moore
Best Original Screenplay:
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- May December
- Past Lives
Alts: Air, El Conde, Fallen Leaves, Saltburn
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Alts: All of Us Strangers, Origin, The Zone of Interest
Best Film Editing:
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
Alts: Maestro, Poor Things
Best Sound:
- Barbie
- Ferrari
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Killers of the Flower Moon, Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Best Cinematography:
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Saltburn
Alts: El Conde, The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects:
- The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning
- Society of the Snow
Alts: Godzilla Minus One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Costume Design:
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Napoleon
- Poor Things
Alts: Oppenheimer, Wonka
Best Production Design:
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Asteroid City, Maestro, Saltburn
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling:
- Golda
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
Alts: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
Best Original Score:
- The Boy and the Heron
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alts: American Fiction, Barbie, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Zone of Interest
Best Original Song:
- "The Fire Inside"
- "I'm Just Ken"
- "It Never Went Away"
- "Quiet Eyes"
- "What Was I Made For?"
Alts: "Dance the Night", "Keep It Movin'", "Road to Freedom"
Best Animated Feature:
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alts: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Robot Dreams, Suzume
Best International Feature:
- Fallen Leaves
- Perfect Days
- Society of the Snow
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Godland, The Monk and the Gun, The Taste of Things, The Teachers' Lounge, Tótem
Best Documentary Feature:
- Beyond Utopia
- Bobi Wine: The People's President
- Four Daughters
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Alts: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, The Eternal Memory, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, 32 Sounds
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2024.01.21 22:09 CrazyCons Final Oscar nomination predictions
The time has come for me to lock things in. Not really feeling like predicting winners at this point, so these are just ranked in nomination order.
Best Picture - Oppenheimer
- The Holdovers
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- Anatomy of a Fall
- American Fiction
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
- Past Lives
Alternate: Origin
Best Director - Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
- Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Alternate: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
It pains (Paynes?) me to have Lanthimos out but I can’t budge on any of my 5. My logic is that GlazeTriet are going to take a lot of the high-place votes from Lanthimos, and more mainstream voters will also have Payne and possibly Gerwig above him, leading to a snub. Kind of like how highbrows/Europeans coalesced around Hamaguchi in addition to already splitting with Anderson and Campion instead of the more international-appealing Dune. Since basic voters preferred Branagh and Spielberg, Villenueve was snubbed.
Best Actor - Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, KOTFM
Last slot is really contentious but I just can’t answer the question “why was DiCaprio snubbed at SAG if he was showing up at the Oscars?” The immediate comparison is Michelle Williams but she had consistently shown up everywhere else aside from SAG and BAFTA whereas DiCaprio missed a ton of regionals and is playing a far less sympathetic character.
Best Actress - Emma Stone, Poor Things
- Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Lily Gladstone, KOTFM
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Annette Bening, NYAD
Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie
OKAY OKAY let me explain. Something about a lineup of all under 40s just feels wrong to me, it hasn’t happened since 1976/77. Which may seem arbitrary but I genuinely think it shows that there’s a section of the acting branch that prefers performances from relatively older actresses. In general NYAD is a film that I think has a lot of appeal for the old guard: it’s the only real Netflix contender that’s an actual crowdpleaser, it’s about the empowerment of older people, it even won two awards at AARP. Maybe I’m throwing away an easy 5/5 here but I’ve just never bought that Margot’s the type of performance to be nominated or the type to be benefitted on a preferential ballot.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Greta Lee show up here either just off of passion for the movie but with Past Lives generally underperforming with guilds I can’t predict it.
Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Robert De Niro, KOTFM
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
- Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
I’m so sad about leaving Sessa out since I was potentially THE first person to start predicting him all the way back in May, and have had him on Goldderby from day 1. And I’ve been saying the whole season that if voters love the Holdovers then Sessa’s coming along for the ride because there’s no way you love that movie and not love him Barrino extenuating factors. But after the GG, CC, and especially SAG misses, I just can’t see him coattailing from a sole BAFTA nom that very well could have been a jury pick.
Sterling K. Brown has the SAG+Ensemble=BP nom package that guarantees your movie
a slot, though sometimes it can be swapped out for a different contender from the same film. I think he’s coming to surprise. Meanwhile, I was actually predicting Ruffalo to miss SAG and still expect him to make it here. The key thing about the Hirsch v Dano/Dench v Balfe debacles is that the person who ultimately won out was the person with the flashier performance, which I why I think Ruffalo’s pulling through here.
Best Supporting Actress - Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Jodie Foster, NYAD
- Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest
- Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Alternate: Danielle Brooks, The Colour Purple
I do not at all feel confident beyond my top 3, but all of the alternatives don’t make sense. So mostly I’m just gonna explain why I have them getting snubbed.
Colour Purple has bombed everywhere and Brooks isn’t a veteran nor does she have particularly good critic support, it feels a lot like Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation.
Ferrera could still coattail Barbie but she reminds me of Tom Cruise last year, in that they had no excuse whatsoever to miss SAG.
Cruz is held back because Neon’s films beyond their top priority never do that well, in addition to the fact that getting into the Oscars off of just SAG isn’t really a thing.
Moore makes sense on paper but I just can’t see her getting in without Melton based purely on her role, and since Melton hasn’t been doing well I think they both miss.
Finally, there’s a logic to predicting Pike as Saltburn representation, but her Globe nom could have easily just been a namecheck and her BAFTA top 3 status feels very regional. Not to mention that Amazon’s an extremely weak campaigner.
So who are we left with? Sandra Huller, who has some degree of domestic appeal given Zone’s PGA nom, a banner year narrative, and a memorable and baity performance. And Rachel McAdams, who arguably has more passion than anyone in the field aside from Randolph. The former would be a very out of character nomination and the latter is admittedly driven by gut instinct, but I truly just am not convinced by any of the alternatives. I’m probably going 3/5 no matter what I do, so why not try to be bold?
Best Original Screenplay - The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Past Lives
- May December
- Maestro
Alternate: The Iron Claw
I’m like 80% sure that Maestro’s getting snubbed but there’s just no viable alternative after Saltburn missed BAFTA and Air bombed everywhere. Wouldn’t be that surprised to see something shocking like The Iron Claw getting in, something that could have been foreshadowed by WGA.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- American Fiction
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternate: All of Us Strangers
Best Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
Alternate: Napoleon
The costume designer for Maestro seems really liked by the branch and frontrunners tend to do really well with noms, which means Napoleon is the odd film out.
Best Production Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Another category where the fifth spot is highly nebulous. Zone makes sense for a BAFTA nom but I’m not sure if I can see it translating to the Oscars, especially since it missed both Production Design guilds. Going with Napoleon because the art director has gotten in off of a sole guild nom with American Gangster and because otherwise this category seems pretty open.
Best Makeup/Hairstyling - Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Golda
- Society of the Snow
Alternate: Beau is Afraid
Society of Snow has barely shown up anywhere but surely the Netflix viewership during voting should come into play somewhere right? Especially with how sparse the category is otherwise. Maybe Beau is Afraid gets an awful, embarrassing nomination for using old man stuff but thankfully it missing the Makeup guild should prevent that. Also would not be completely shocked to see Ferrari here for the same reason but I can’t predict that when it hasn’t gotten a single nomination anywhere relevant for Makeup.
Best Editing - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: The Holdovers
I really want to predict The Holdovers since it’s absolutely a threat to win Picture but I just can’t find room for it. The editing in all of the above films are just as, if not more flashy, and they never go for just the straight BP top 5. Poor Things I’ve seen tossed around but that just feels like predicting a shock snub for the sake of it without a lot of solid evidence or reasoning. Would have been really nice for ACE to have happened before noms but oh well.
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- The Zone of Interest
- Ferrari
- Barbie
Alternate: The Killer
Best Visual Effects - The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy Volume III
- Indians Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Napoleon
- Godzilla Minus One
Alternate: Poor Things
I could see myself going 2/5 here which is a little daunting, so let me explain: Dial of Destiny is alone Ranger 2.0 except it did even better with the VFX guild. Napoleon seems like a weird pick but the Oscars usually go 3/5 with BAFTA, and Napoleon also showed up in the VFX guild. Finally, Godzilla Minus One as the buzzy passion pick, but it’s underperformed consistently and so is not something I’m confident in at all.
Best Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- El Conde
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
I’m half expecting a shock snub because I do think both El Conde and Zone can make it here. other than Bardo, The Grandmaster is great precedent for El Conde, I just don’t think it’s getting snubbed.
Best Original Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
I think I’m gonna feel stupid for not having Elemental in but I wouldn’t know whether to swap it with Spider-averse (other animated film) or Poor Things (literally no other work from the composer).
Best Original Song - “What Was I Made For?” Barbie
- “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
- “The Fire Inside,” Flamin Hot
- “Road to Freedom,” Rustin
- “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
Alternate: “Quiet Eyes,” Past Lives
I want to predict a surprise nom here but nothing really speaks to me. Past Lives could maybe get a Coattail nom here but given that it hasn’t even hit both music guilds it feels like something that makes sense on paper that just doesn’t pan out.
Best Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Elemental
Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
I’ve been sceptical of Elemental pretty much the entire year and the Annies bomb partially confirms what I already suspected about it. I could see Chicken Run or possible Suzume leapfrog it, even with it getting in at BAFTA (who tends to have more lowbrow tastes here).
Best International Feature - The Zone of Interest
- Society of the Snow
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Fallen Leaves
- Totem
Alternate: The Monk and the Gun
Totem makes the most sense pad a surprise nom to me but it could really be almost anything, even Godland. Though I do think The Taste of Things and Perfect Days are getting snubbed given the lack of precursors and the fact that the former allegedly has Academy members not going for it just to punish France for not submitting Anatomy, and the latter couldn’t even get BAFTA longlisted.
Best Documentary - 20 Days in Mariupol
- Four Daughters
- Beyond Utopia
- American Symphony
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Alternate: The Eternal Memory
The top 2 are the only one that feel somewhat secure to me, otherwise this is a hot mess as usual. Just going for Bobi Wine as the surprise nom since it’s done pretty decently but not all at confident about it.
Best Animated Short - Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- WAR IS OVER!
- Humo
- Pete
Alternate: 27
I have no idea what to do here and my strategy of looking further into Animated Shorts last year didn’t really work out, so I’m just gonna copy Joyce Eng since she went 5/5 last year.
Best Documentary Short - The ABC’s of Book Banning
- The Last Repair Shop
- Last Song from Kabul
- Deciding Vote
- Camp Courage
Alternate: Bear
Same as above except copying Christopher Rosen since he’s done pretty decently in the category.
Best Live Action Short - The After
- Red, White, and Blue
- The Avocado Pit
- Yellow
- Invisible Border
Alternate: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
See, this one’s by far the single most difficult to predict category because (1) two years almost everybody got at most 2/5 here, so there’s nobody to copy, and (2) I feel strongly that Henry Sugar’s getting snubbed and almost nobody is predicting it. So I just kinda threw random stuff at the wall and home some of it sticks. Fully prepared to go 0/5 here but c’est la vie.
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2024.01.21 18:40 DieSowjetZwiebel 96th Academy Awards predictions: Final edition
Best Picture
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
The Holdovers
Barbie
Poor Things
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
The Zone of Interest
American Fiction
Past Lives
Alts: May December, Saltburn, The Color Purple
Best Director
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Gerwig - Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Alts: Alexander Payne - The Holdovers, Celine Song - Past Lives, Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actor
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers
Alts: Leondardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon, Colman Domingo - Rustin, Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Margot Robbie - Barbie
Alts: Natalie Portman - May December, Greta Lee - Past Lives, Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Charles Melton - May December
Alts: Willem Dafoe - Poor Things, Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
Julianne Moore - May December
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Alts: Rosamund Pike - Saltburn, Penelope Cruz - Ferrari, America Ferrera - Barbie
Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
Saltburn
Maestro
Alts: May December, Air, The Iron Claw
Best Adapted Screenplay
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
Barbie
Alts: All of Us Strangers, The Zone of Interest, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret
Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
TMNT: Mutant Mayhem
Elemental
Nimona
Alts: Robot Dreams, Chicken Run 2, Suzume
Best International Feature
TZOI (UK)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
Perfect Days (Japan)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
Alts: The Taste of Things (France), Totem (Mexico), Io Capitano (Italy)
Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
The Eternal Memory
Alts: Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Bobbi Wine: The People's President
Best Original Score
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
KotFM
The Boy and the Heron
Across the Spider-Verse
Alts: TZoI, Elemental, Indiana Jones 5
Best Original Song
"What Was I Made For" from Barbie
"I'm Just Ken" from Barbie
"Keep It Movin'" from The Color Purple
"Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
"The Fire Inside" from Flamin' Hot
Alts: "It Never Went Away" from American Symphony, "Road to Freedom" from Rustin, "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" from KotFM
Best Sound
Oppenheimer
TZoI
Maestro
Barbie
The Creator
Alts: Ferrari, KotFM, The Killer
Best Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
KotFM
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Alts: The Color Purple, TZoI, Asteroid City
Best Cinematography
Oppenheimer
KotFM
Maestro
TZoI
Saltburn
Alts: Poor Things, El Conde, Barbie for some fucking reason
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Golda
Napoleon
Alts: Society of the Snow, Beau Is Afraid
Best Costume Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
KotFM
The Color Purple
Alts: Oppenheimer, Priscilla, Wonka
Best Film Editing
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
KotFM
Barbie
Maestro
Alts: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, TZoI
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Across the Spider-Verse
Godzilla Minus One
Indiana Jones 5
Alts: Mission Impossible 7, Society of the Snow
submitted by
DieSowjetZwiebel to
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2024.01.21 00:36 BentisKomprakriev Scorechart Update for 2023-2024 (Pre-Oscar Nominations)
| Best Picture | Studio | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | Universal | 58 | 20 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Apple | 50 | 12 |
| Past Lives | A24 | 48 | 9 |
| Barbie | Warner Bros | 47 | 4 |
| Poor Things | Searchlight | 45 | 3 |
| The Holdovers | Focus | 39 | 3 |
| American Fiction | MGM | 32 | 3 |
| May December | Netflix | 24 | |
| The Zone of Interest | A24 | 22 | 3 |
| Anatomy of a Fall | Neon | 21 | |
| |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Sony | 18 | |
| Maestro | Netflix | 13 | |
| The Color Purple | Warner Bros | 9 | |
| All of Us Strangers | Searchlight | 7 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | Toho | 5 | |
| Origin | Neon | 5 | |
| The Iron Claw | A24 | 5 | |
| The Boy and the Heron | GKids | 4 | 1 |
| Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | Lionsgate | 3 | 1 |
| Asteroid City | Focus | 3 | |
| Ferrari | Neon | 3 | |
| Passages | SBS | 3 | |
| Saltburn | MGM | 3 | |
| A Thousand and One | Focus | 2 | |
| Air | Amazon | 2 | |
| Trenque Lauquen | | 1 | 1 |
| Bottoms | MGM | 1 | |
| Dream Scenario | | 1 | |
| Godland | | 1 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | Lionsgate | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | | 1 | |
| Priscilla | A24 | 1 | |
| Radical | Pantelion | 1 | |
| Reality | HBO | 1 | |
| Robot Dreams | | 1 | |
| Rustin | Netflix | 1 | |
| Scrapper | | 1 | |
| Showing Up | A24 | 1 | |
| Society of the Snow | Netflix | 1 | |
| The Eight Mountains | | 1 | |
| The Killer | Netflix | 1 | |
| Best Director | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Christopher Nolan | Oppenheimer | 56 | 32 |
| Martin Scorsese | Killers of the Flower Moon | 40 | 7 |
| Greta Gerwig | Barbie | 37 | 3 |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | Poor Things | 32 | 3 |
| Celine Song | Past Lives | 30 | 3 |
| |
| Jonathan Glazer | The Zone of Interest | 14 | 5 |
| Alexander Payne | The Holdovers | 13 | 1 |
| Todd Haynes | May December | 10 | 1 |
| Bradley Cooper | Maestro | 9 | |
| Cord Jefferson | American Fiction | 8 | 1 |
| Justine Triet | Anatomy of a Fall | 7 | |
| Emerald Fennell | Saltburn | 5 | |
| Ava Duverney | Origin | 4 | 1 |
| Albert Serra | Pacifiction | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Haigh | All of Us Strangers | 2 | |
| Ben Affleck | Air | 2 | |
| Wes Anderson | Asteroid City | 2 | |
| Laura Citarella | Trenque Lauquen | 1 | 1 |
| A.V. Rockwell | A Thousand and One | 1 | |
| Blitz Bazawule | The Color Purple | 1 | |
| Ira Sachs | Passages | 1 | |
| Kelly Freeman Craig | Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | 1 | |
| Lila Avilés | Totem | 1 | |
| Michael B. Jordan | Creed III | 1 | |
| Michael Mann | Ferrari | 1 | |
| William Oldroyd | Eileen | 1 | |
| Best Actor | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Cillian Murphy | Oppenheimer | 53 | 25 |
| Paul Giamatti | The Holdovers | 43 | 14 |
| Jeffrey Wright | American Fiction | 42 | 6 |
| Bradley Cooper | Maestro | 32 | 2 |
| Andrew Scott | All of Us Strangers | 28 | 2 |
| |
| Colman Domingo | Rustin | 20 | 3 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | Killers of the Flower Moon | 13 | |
| Barry Keoghan | Saltburn | 11 | |
| Franz Rogowski | Passages | 7 | 2 |
| Teo Yoo | Past Lives | 6 | 1 |
| Zac Efron | The Iron Claw | 6 | |
| Kōji Yakusho | Perfect Days | 5 | |
| Nicolas Cage | Dream Scenario | 5 | |
| Joaquin Phoenix | Beau Is Afraid | 3 | |
| Benoît Magimel | Pacifiction | 2 | |
| Gael Garcia Bernal | Cassandro | 2 | |
| Luca Marinelli | The Eight Mountains | 2 | |
| Adam Driver | Ferrari | 1 | |
| Anthony Hopkins | Freud’s Last Session | 1 | |
| Denis Ménochet | The Beasts | 1 | |
| Eugenio Derbez | Radical | 1 | |
| Glen Powell | Hit Man | 1 | |
| Jamie Foxx | The Burial | 1 | |
| John Boyega | They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Kelvin Harrison Jr. | Chevalier | 1 | |
| Matt Damon | Air | 1 | |
| Michael B. Jordan | Creed III | 1 | |
| Timothee Chalamet | Wonka | 1 | |
| Best Actress | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Lily Gladstone | Killers of the Flower Moon | 52 | 28 |
| Emma Stone | Poor Things | 51 | 22 |
| Sandra Hüller | Anatomy of a Fall | 38 | 5 |
| Greta Lee | Past Lives | 36 | 1 |
| Margot Robbie | Barbie | 26 | 1 |
| |
| Carey Mulligan | Maestro | 20 | 1 |
| Natalie Portman | May December | 14 | |
| Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor | Origin | 7 | 2 |
| Annette Bening | Nyad | 6 | 1 |
| Fantasia Barrino | The Color Purple | 6 | |
| Teyana Taylor | A Thousand and One | 6 | |
| Cailee Spaeny | Priscilla | 5 | |
| Alma Pöysti | Fallen Leaves | 2 | |
| Helen Mirren | Golda | 2 | |
| Lily Gladstone | The Unknown Country | 1 | 1 |
| Abby Ryder Fortson | Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | 1 | |
| Babetida Sadjo | Our Father, The Devil | 1 | |
| Cate Blanchett | The New Boy | 1 | |
| Jennifer Lawrence | No Hard Feelings | 1 | |
| Jessica Chastain | Memory | 1 | |
| Judy Reyes | Birth/Rebirth | 1 | |
| Julia Roberts | Leave the World Behind | 1 | |
| Juliette Binoche | The Taste of Things | 1 | |
| Laura Paredes | Trenque Lauquen | 1 | |
| Michelle Williams | Showing Up | 1 | |
| Penélope Cruz | Ferrari | 1 | |
| Sophie Wilde | Talk To Me | 1 | |
| Sydney Sweeney | Reality | 1 | |
| Trace Lysette | Monica | 1 | |
| Vivian Oparah | Rye Lane | 1 | |
| Best Supporting Actor | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Robert Downey Jr. | Oppenheimer | 49 | 19 |
| Ryan Gosling | Barbie | 52 | 16 |
| Charles Melton | May December | 43 | 11 |
| Mark Ruffalo | Poor Things | 35 | 3 |
| Robert De Niro | Killers of the Flower Moon | 23 | 1 |
| |
| Dominic Sessa | The Holdovers | 15 | 1 |
| Sterling K. Brown | American Fiction | 14 | 2 |
| Glenn Howerton | BlackBerry | 14 | 1 |
| Willem Dafoe | Poor Things | 6 | |
| Colman Domingo | The Color Purple | 4 | |
| Paul Mescal | All of Us Strangers | 3 | |
| Jacob Elordi | Saltburn | 2 | |
| Jamie Foxx | They Cloned Tyrone | 2 | |
| John Magaro | Past Lives | 2 | |
| Milo Machado Graner | Anatomy of a Fall | 2 | |
| Alessandro Borghi | The Eight Mountains | 1 | |
| Ben Whishaw | Passages | 1 | |
| Donnie Yen | John Wick: Chapter 4 | 1 | |
| Ingvar Sigurðsson | Godland | 1 | |
| Jonathan Majors | Creed III | 1 | |
| Matt Damon | Oppenheimer | 1 | |
| Noah Galvi | Theater Camp | 1 | |
| Best Supporting Actress | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Da’Vine Joy Randolph | The Holdovers | 62 | 44 |
| Rachel McAdams | Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | 30 | 6 |
| Emily Blunt | Oppenheimer | 30 | |
| Julianne Moore | May December | 29 | 1 |
| Danielle Brooks | The Color Purple | 23 | 2 |
| |
| Rosamund Pike | Saltburn | 15 | |
| Jodie Foster | Nyad | 13 | 2 |
| America Ferrera | Barbie | 13 | |
| Penélope Cruz | Ferrari | 11 | |
| Sandra Hüller | The Zone of Interest | 10 | |
| Viola Davis | Air | 6 | |
| Claire Foy | All of Us Strangers | 4 | |
| Anne Hathaway | Eileen | 2 | |
| Erika Alexander | American Fiction | 2 | |
| Juliette Binoche | The Taste of Things | 2 | |
| Taraji P. Henson | The Color Purple | 2 | |
| Adèle Exarchopoulos | Passages | 1 | |
| Adriana Barraza | Blue Beetle | 1 | |
| Catalina Saavedra | Rotting in the Sun | 1 | |
| Hong Chau | Showing Up | 1 | |
| Jurnee Smollett | The Burial | 1 | |
| Leslie Uggams | American Fiction | 1 | |
| Lily Gladstone | Killers of the Flower Moon | 1 | |
| Marin Ireland | Eileen | 1 | |
| Pahoa Mahagafanau | Pacifiction | 1 | |
| Sigourney Weaver | Master Gardener | 1 | |
| Vanessa Kirby | Napoleon | 1 | |
| Best Original Screenplay | Noms | Wins |
| The Holdovers | 46 | 15 |
| Past Lives | 43 | 13 |
| Barbie | 39 | 10 |
| Anatomy of a Fall | 32 | 6 |
| May December | 32 | 6 |
| |
| Maestro | 6 | 1 |
| Air | 6 | |
| Saltburn | 4 | |
| Asteroid City | 3 | |
| The Iron Claw | 3 | |
| Trenque Lauquen | 2 | 1 |
| Bottoms | 2 | |
| A Thousand and One | 1 | |
| Birth/Rebirth | 1 | |
| Dream Scenario | 1 | |
| Fallen Leaves | 1 | |
| Master Gardener | 1 | |
| R.M.N. | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| The Beasts | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| You Hurt My Feelings | 1 | |
| Best Adapted Screenplay | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | 44 | 14 |
| Poor Things | 40 | 5 |
| American Fiction | 36 | 9 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 33 | 5 |
| Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | 18 | 3 |
| |
| All of Us Strangers | 13 | 1 |
| The Zone of Interest | 11 | 1 |
| Origin | 4 | |
| Barbie | 2 | |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 2 | |
| The Eight Mountains | 1 | 1 |
| Ferrari | 1 | |
| Best International Film | Submitted by | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Anatomy of a Fall | | 52 | 26 | |
| The Zone of Interest | United Kingdom | 47 | 14 | ✓ |
| Godzilla Minus One | | 24 | 6 | |
| Fallen Leaves | Finland | 20 | 2 | ✓ |
| Perfect Days | Japan | 19 | | ✓ |
| |
| The Taste of Things | France | 16 | | ✓ |
| The Boy and the Heron | | 14 | 1 | |
| Society of the Snow | Spain | 14 | | ✓ |
| The Teachers' Lounge | Germany | 8 | | ✓ |
| Past Lives | | 7 | |
| Totem | Mexico | 6 | | ✓ |
| Io Capitano | Italy | 4 | 2 | ✓ |
| Monster | | 3 | |
| Radical | | 3 | |
| When Evil Lurks | | 3 | |
| Afire | | 2 | 1 | |
| Godland | Iceland | 2 | | ✓ |
| 20 Days in Mariupol | Ukraine | 1 | | ✓ |
| Amerikatsi | Armenia | 1 | | ✓ |
| Blaga’s Lessons | Bulgaria | 1 | |
| Brother | | 1 | |
| Concrete Utopia | South Korea | 1 | |
| Four Daughters | Tunisia | 1 | | ✓ |
| Jawan | | 1 | |
| La Chimera | | 1 | |
| Mami Wata | Nigeria | 1 | |
| Other People’s Children | | 1 | |
| Our Father, the Devil | | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | | 1 | |
| The Eight Mountains | | 1 | |
| The Three Musketeers:- Part I: D’Artagnan | | 1 | |
| |
| The Monk and the Gun | Bhutan | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Mother of All Lies | Morocco | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Promised Land | Denmark | 0 | | ✓ |
(Only showing scores that have gotten at least two nominations in this category)
| Best Score/Music | Composer | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Oppenheimer | Ludwig Göransson | 40 | 24 | ✓ |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Robbie Robertson | 36 | 9 | ✓ |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Daniel Pemberton | 29 | 2 | ✓ |
| Poor Things | Jerskin Fendrix | 26 | | ✓ |
| The Zone of Interest | Mica Levi | 16 | 2 | ✓ |
| |
| Barbie | Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt | 11 | 2 | ✓ |
| The Boy and the Heron | Joe Hisaishi | 8 | 1 | ✓ |
| Society of the Snow | Michael Giacchino | 6 | 2 | ✓ |
| American Fiction | Laura Karpman | 5 | | ✓ |
| Saltburn | Anthony Willis | 4 | | ✓ |
| The Killer | Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross | 4 | |
| The Color Purple | Kris Bowers | 3 | 1 | ✓ |
| American Symphony | Jon Batiste | 2 | | ✓ |
| Chevalier | Kris Bowers | 2 | |
| Elemental | Thomas Newman | 2 | | ✓ |
| May December | Marcelo Zarvos | 2 | |
| Rustin | Branford Marsalis | 2 | |
| A Thousand and One | Gary Gunn | 1 | | |
| Ferrari | Daniel Pemberton | 1 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | Naoki Satō | 1 | |
| Maestro | Leonard Bernstein | 1 | |
| Mushka | Fabrizio Mancinelli & Richard M. Sherman | 1 | |
| Past Lives | Grizzly Bear | 1 | |
| Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie | John Powell | 1 | |
| The Holdovers | Mark Orton | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | Desmond Murray & Pierre Charles | 1 | |
| Best Cinematography | Director of Photography | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | Hoyte van Hoytema | 50 | 33 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Rodrigo Prieto | 38 | 5 |
| Poor Things | Robbie Ryan | 37 | 5 |
| Barbie | Rodrigo Prieto | 20 | 1 |
| Maestro | Matthew Libatique | 19 | |
| |
| The Zone of Interest | Łukasz Żal | 15 | |
| Saltburn | Linus Sandgren | 12 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | Dan Laustsen | 6 | 1 |
| Asteroid City | Robert Yeoman | 5 | |
| All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt | Jomo Fray | 4 | |
| Napoleon | Dariusz Wolski | 4 | |
| Ferrari | Erik Messerschmidt | 2 | 1 |
| Pacifiction | Artur Tort | 2 | 1 |
| El Conde | Edward Lachman | 2 | |
| Godland | Maria von Hausswolff | 2 | |
| Past Lives | Shabier Kirchner | 2 | |
| A Haunting in Venice | Haris Zambarloukos | 1 | 1 |
| The Taste of Things | Jonathan Ricquebourg | 1 | 1 |
| Chronicles of a Wandering Saint | Pablo Lozano | 1 | |
| Earth Mama | Jody Lee Lipes | 1 | |
| Enys Men | Mark Jenkin | 1 | |
| Kokomo City | D. Smith | 1 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | Fraser Taggart | 1 | |
| Monica | Katelin Arizmendi | 1 | |
| Rye Lane | Olan Collardy | 1 | |
| Silver Dollar Road | Henry Adebonojo & Antonio Rossi | 1 | |
| Society of the Snow | Pedro Luque | 1 | |
| The Creator | Greig Fraser & Oren Soffer | 1 | |
| The Eight Mountains | Ruben Impens | 1 | |
| The Holdovers | Eigil Bryld | 1 | |
| The Iron Claw | Mátyás Erdély | 1 | |
| We Grown Now | Pat Scola | 1 | |
| Best Documentary | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie | 42 | 25 | ✓ |
| 20 Days in Mariupol | 37 | 6 | ✓ |
| American Symphony | 32 | 7 | ✓ |
| Beyond Utopia | 30 | 1 | ✓ |
| Kokomo City | 19 | 4 | |
| |
| Four Daughters | 15 | 1 | ✓ |
| Menus Plaisirs Les Troisgros | 13 | 6 | |
| The Eternal Memory | 11 | 1 | ✓ |
| Little Richard: I Am Everything | 11 | |
| The Mission | 7 | |
| The Deepest Breath | 5 | 1 | |
| The Pigeon Tunnel | 5 | |
| Stamped from the Beginning | 4 | 1 | ✓ |
| 32 Sounds | 3 | 1 | ✓ |
| Smoke Sauna Sisterhood | 3 | 1 | |
| Apolonia, Apolonia | 3 | | ✓ |
| Going to Mars: The Project | 3 | | ✓ |
| Judy Blume Forever | 3 | |
| The Disappearance of Shere Hite | 3 | |
| The Fabric of the Human Body | 3 | |
| The Mother of All Lies | 3 | |
| Geographies of Solitude | 2 | 1 | |
| A Still Small Voice | 2 | | ✓ |
| Against the Tide | 2 | |
| Anhell69 | 2 | |
| Our Body | 2 | |
| Silver Dollar Road | 2 | |
| Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour | 2 | |
| Anselm | 1 | 1 | |
| To Kill a Tiger | 1 | 1 | ✓ |
| 406 Days | 1 | |
| A Disturbance in the Force | 1 | |
| Albert Brooks: Defending Your Life | 1 | |
| Bad Press | 1 | |
| Bobi Wine: The People’s President | 1 | | ✓ |
| Bye Bye Tiberias | 1 | |
| Close to Vermeer | 1 | |
| Even Hell Has Its Heroes | 1 | |
| I Dream in Photos | 1 | |
| In the Rearview | 1 | | ✓ |
| In the Shadow of Beirut | 1 | |
| Invisible Beauty | 1 | |
| It Ain't Over | 1 | |
| Lakota Nation vs. United States | 1 | |
| Love to Love You, Donna Summer | 1 | |
| May the Lord Watch: The Little Brother Story | 1 | |
| Milisuthando | 1 | |
| Q | 1 | |
| Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Scala!!! | 1 | |
| Sly | 1 | |
| So This Is Christmas | 1 | |
| Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) | 1 | |
| Stolen | 1 | |
| Swan Song | 1 | |
| Take Care of Maya | 1 | |
| The Lost Weekend | 1 | |
| They Shot the Piano Player | 1 | |
| Wham! | 1 | |
| While We Watched | 1 | |
| |
| Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Animated Film | Noms | Wins |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 54 | 33 |
| The Boy and the Heron | 45 | 13 |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | 34 | |
| Elemental | 27 | |
| Robot Dreams | 24 | 2 |
| |
| Nimona | 19 | 1 |
| Suzume | 8 | |
| The Super Mario Bros. Movie | 6 | |
| Wish | 5 | |
| Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget | 3 | |
| The Peasants | 2 | |
| Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia | 1 | |
| Four Souls of Coyote | 1 | |
| Leo | 1 | |
| The Inventor | 1 | |
| White Plastic Sky | 1 | |
| Best Editing | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | 33 | 20 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 26 | 4 |
| Poor Things | 21 | |
| Barbie | 14 | |
| Maestro | 11 | |
| |
| Anatomy of a Fall | 10 | 2 |
| The Holdovers | 8 | |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 6 | 1 |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 5 | 1 |
| The Zone of Interest | 4 | 1 |
| Air | 2 | |
| Past Lives | 2 | |
| The Killer | 2 | |
| All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt | 1 | |
| All of Us Strangers | 1 | |
| Ferrari | 1 | |
| Full Time | 1 | |
| How to Blow Up a Pipeline | 1 | |
| Kokomo City | 1 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One | 1 | |
| Origin | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | 1 | |
| Rotting in the Sun | 1 | |
| The Color Purple | 1 | |
| The Iron Claw | 1 | |
| Theater Camp | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Trenque Lauquen | 1 | |
| Upon Entry | 1 | |
| We Grown Now | 1 | |
| Best Production Design | Noms | Wins |
| Barbie | 31 | 22 |
| Poor Things | 27 | 1 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 25 | 1 |
| Oppenheimer | 22 | |
| Asteroid City | 18 | 1 |
| |
| Napoleon | 5 | |
| Saltburn | 5 | |
| Beau Is Afraid | 3 | |
| Maestro | 3 | |
| Wonka | 3 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 2 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One | 2 | |
| The Color Purple | 2 | |
| The Creator | 2 | |
| The Killer | 2 | |
| The Little Mermaid | 2 | |
| The Zone of Interest | 2 | |
| American Fiction | 1 | |
| Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | 1 | |
| Candy Cane Lane | 1 | |
| Chevalier | 1 | |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | 1 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 1 | |
| Leave the World Behind | 1 | |
| May December | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | 1 | |
| Priscilla | 1 | |
| Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 1 | |
| The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | 1 | |
| The Kings of the World | 1 | |
| Best Costume Design | Noms | Wins |
| Barbie | 23 | 12 |
| Poor Things | 22 | 5 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 18 | |
| Oppenheimer | 11 | |
| |
| Napoleon | 8 | |
| The Color Purple | 8 | |
| |
| Priscilla | 7 | |
| Asteroid City | 5 | |
| Wonka | 3 | |
| Saltburn | 2 | |
| The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | 2 | |
| Air | 1 | |
| American Fiction | 1 | |
| Chevalier | 1 | |
| Ferrari | 1 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 1 | |
| Haunted Mansion | 1 | |
| Maestro | 1 | |
| May December | 1 | |
| Nyad | 1 | |
| Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire | 1 | |
| Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Renfield | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| Society of the Snow | 1 | |
| The Little Mermaid | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Best Visual Effects | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Godzilla Minus One | 18 | 8 | ✓ |
| The Creator | 23 | 6 | ✓ |
| Oppenheimer | 21 | 4 | |
| Poor Things | 20 | | ✓ |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 18 | 2 | ✓ |
| |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | 15 | 1 | ✓ |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 10 | 2 | ✓ |
| Napoleon | 3 | | ✓ |
| Society of the Snow | 3 | | ✓ |
| Barbie | 2 | |
| Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | 2 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 2 | |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | 1 | | ✓ |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 1 | |
| Nyad | 1 | |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | 1 | |
| |
| Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Sound | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Oppenheimer | 15 | 7 | ✓ |
| Maestro | 13 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ferrari | 10 | 1 | ✓ |
| The Zone of Interest | 10 | 1 | ✓ |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 6 | |
| |
| The Killer | 5 | | ✓ |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 4 | | ✓ |
| Napoleon | 4 | | ✓ |
| Barbie | 3 | | ✓ |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 3 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | 3 | | ✓ |
| Elemental | 2 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | 2 | |
| Poor Things | 2 | |
| The Boy and the Heron | 2 | |
| The Super Mario Bros. Movie | 2 | |
| Pacifiction | 1 | 1 | |
| American Symphony | 1 | |
| Anatomy of a Fall | 1 | |
| Creed III | 1 | |
| Gran Turismo | 1 | |
| Migration | 1 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | 1 | |
| The First Slam Dunk | 1 | |
| Wonka | 1 | |
| |
| The Creator | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Original Song | Film | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| I’m Just Ken | Barbie | 22 | 10 | ✓ |
| What Was I Made For? | Barbie | 21 | 8 | ✓ |
| Road to Freedom | Rustin | 13 | | ✓ |
| Peaches | The Super Mario Bros. Movie | 12 | |
| Dance the Night | Barbie | 8 | 1 | ✓ |
| |
| Am I Dreaming | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 5 | | ✓ |
| Can't Catch Me Now | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | 4 | 1 | ✓ |
| It Never Went Away | American Symphony | 4 | | ✓ |
| Keep It Movin' | The Color Purple | 4 | | ✓ |
| The Fire Inside | Flamin' Hot | 4 | | ✓ |
| Camp Isn’t Home | Theater Camp | 3 | |
| Quiet Eyes | Past Lives | 3 | | ✓ |
| This Wish | Wish | 3 | |
| A World of Your Own | Wonka | 2 | |
| You've Never Had Chocolate Like This | Wonka | 2 | |
| I Got You | Holiday Twist | 1 | 1 | |
| Addicted to Romance | She Came to Me | 1 | |
| All About Me | The L Word: Generation Q | 1 | |
| Better Place | Trolls Band Together | 1 | |
| Better Times | Jacob the Baker | 1 | |
| Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven) | Asteroid City | 1 | | ✓ |
| Don't Forget Me When I'm Gone | Sons 2 the Grave | 1 | |
| El Saber | Radical | 1 | |
| For the First Time | The Little Mermaid | 1 | |
| High Life | Flora and Son | 1 | | ✓ |
| I Am | Origin | 1 | |
| Live That Way Forever | The Iron Claw | 1 | |
| Meet in the Middle | Flora and Son | 1 | | ✓ |
| My House | Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Slip Away | Carmen | 1 | |
| Stardust | A Good Person | 1 | |
| This | The Beanie Bubble | 1 | |
| Wild Uncharted Waters | The Little Mermaid | 1 | |
| |
| Superpower (I) | The Color Purple | 0 | | ✓ |
| Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) | Killers of the Flower Moon | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Poor Things | 12 | 4 | ✓ |
| Maestro | 11 | 2 | ✓ |
| Barbie | 10 | 3 | |
| Oppenheimer | 8 | | ✓ |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 5 | |
| |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 4 | | ✓ |
| The Color Purple | 4 | |
| Priscilla | 3 | |
| A Thousand and One | 1 | |
| Air | 1 | |
| Beau Is Afraid | 1 | | ✓ |
| Bottoms | 1 | |
| Candy Cane Lane | 1 | |
| Chevalier | 1 | |
| Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | 1 | |
| Ferrari | 1 | | ✓ |
| Golda | 1 | | ✓ |
| Joyride | 1 | |
| Medusa Deluxe | 1 | |
| Napoleon | 1 | | ✓ |
| Nyad | 1 | |
| Pain Hustlers | 1 | |
| Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| Saltburn | 1 | |
| Society of the Snow | 1 | | ✓ |
| The Haunted Mansion | 1 | |
| The Iron Claw | 1 | |
| |
| The Last Voyage of the Demeter | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Ensemble | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | 37 | 20 |
| Barbie | 24 | 3 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 23 | 3 |
| The Holdovers | 17 | 3 |
| The Color Purple | 12 | 4 |
| |
| Asteroid City | 11 | |
| Poor Things | 9 | 1 |
| American Fiction | 8 | 2 |
| The Iron Claw | 6 | 2 |
| Air | 6 | |
| Saltburn | 3 | |
| Anatomy of a Fall | 2 | |
| Rustin | 2 | |
| Showing Up | 1 | 1 |
| A Haunting in Venice | 1 | |
| All of Us Strangers | 1 | |
| Blue Beetle | 1 | |
| Bottoms | 1 | |
| How to Blow Up a Pipeline | 1 | |
| How to Have Sex | 1 | |
| The Blackening | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Trenque Lauquen | 1 | |
| Best Stunts and Choreography | Noms | Wins |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 22 | 15 |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | 19 | 4 |
| The Iron Claw | 10 | |
| Polite Society | 8 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 7 | |
| |
| Extraction 2 | 4 | |
| The Killer | 4 | |
| Barbie | 3 | |
| Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | 3 | |
| Silent Night | 3 | |
| Sisu | 3 | |
| Ferrari | 2 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | 2 | |
| Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny | 2 | |
| Napoleon | 2 | |
| Bottoms | 1 | |
| Fast X | 1 | |
| Wonka | 1 | |
Included Groups:
- African American Film Critics Association (AAFCA)
- Alliance Of Women Film Journalists (AWFJ)
- Atlanta Film Critics Circle (AFCC)
- Austin Film Critics Association (AFCA)
- Australian Academy Of Cinema & Television Arts (AACTA) International Awards
- Black Film Critics Circle (BFCC)
- Black Reel Awards (BRA)
- Boston Online Film Critics Association (BOFCA)
- Boston Society Of Film Critics (BSFC)
- British Academy (BAFTA)
- Capri Hollywood International Film Festival
- Chicago Film Critics Association (CFCA)
- Chicago Indie Critics Awards (CIC)
- Cinema Eye Honors Documentary Awards (CEHA)
- Columbus Film Critics Association (COFCA)
- Costume Designers Guild (CDG)
- Critics Association Of Central Florida (CACF)
- Critics Choice Award (CCA)
- Dallas Fort-Worth Film Critics Association (DFWFCA)
- Denver Film Critics Society (DFCS)
- DiscussingFilm Critic Award (DFCA)
- Dublin Film Critics Circle (DFCC)
- Film Independent Spirit Awards
- Florida Film Critics Circle (FFCC)
- Georgia Film Critics Association (GAFCA)
- Golden Globes
- Gotham Awards
- Greater Western New York Film Critics Association (GWNYFCA)
- Hawaii Film Critics Society (HFCS)
- Hollywood Creative Alliance (HCA)
- Indiana Film Journalists Association (IFJA)
- IndieWire Critics Poll
- International Cinephile Society Awards (ICS)
- International Documentary Association (IDA)
- Iowa Film Critics Association (IFCA)
- Las Vegas Film Critics Society (LVFCS)
- Latino Entertainment Journalists Association (LEJA)
- London Film Critics Circle (LFCC)
- Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA)
- Makeup Artists & Hair Stylists Guild (MUAHS)
- Michigan Movie Critics Guild (MMCG)
- Midnight Critics Circle
- Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE)
- Movies For Grownups (AARP)
- Music City Film Critics Association (MCFCA)
- National Board of Review (NBR)
- National Society Of Film Critics (NSFC)
- Nevada Film Critics Society (NFCS)
- New Mexico Critics
- New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC)
- New York Film Critics Online (NYFCO)
- North Carolina Film Critics Association (NCFCA)
- North Dakota Film Society (NDFS)
- North Texas Film Critics Association (NTFCA)
- Oklahoma Film Critics Circle (OFCC)
- Online Association Of Female Film Critics (OAFFC)
- Online Film Critics Society (OFCS)
- Philadelphia Film Critics Circle (PFCC)
- Phoenix Critics Circle (PCC)
- Phoenix Film Critics Society (PFCS)
- Portland Critics Association (PCA)
- San Diego Film Critics Society (SDFCS)
- San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC)
- Satellite Award (IPA)
- Seattle Film Critics Society (SFCS)
- Set Decorators Society Of America (SDSA)
- Society Of Composers And Lyricists (SCL)
- Southern Eastern Film Critics Association (SEFCA)
- St. Louis Film Critics Association (StLFCA)
- Toronto Film Critics Association (TFCA)
- UK Film Critics Association (UKFCA)
- USC Scripter Award (USC)
- Utah Film Critics Association (UFCA)
- Visual Effects Society (VES)
- Washington DC Area Film Critics Association (WAFCA)
- Women Film Critics Circle (WFCC)
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2024.01.20 08:25 NewWays91 My Final Very Uneasy Oscar Predictions
These aren't in any particular order so don't read too much into the name placement. I wrote them in as I could remember them. I'm undecided on whether I should I make room for either Society of the Snow or The Color Purple. The former gained more visibility right as voting was wrapping up and I think that might've helped. The latter has been getting nominations in the weirdest places. It manages an ensemble nod at SAG and a Best Actress nod at BAFTA. It also has Oprah behind it and she has managed to get films she's been a part of into Best Picture before. I can see this being Selma Pt. 2 in that regard. I still think Anatomy of a Fall is going to be hampered by not being in Best International Film. I think Greta Lee or Fantasia could get bumped out for Sandra Huller but I also think they both have the home field advantage here. I think The Color Purple can edge in for score because the Academy knows Kris Bowers already and he's been nominated before although in a different category. I can see it missing and Killers of the Flower Moon getting in instead. In short, there's a few categories I'm not quite sold on just yet.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer American Fiction Barbie Zone of Interest The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Past Lives Poor Things Anatomy of a Fall
Best Director
Christopher Nolan Greta Gerwig Alexander Payne Johnathon Glazer Justine Triet
Best Actor
Cillian Murphy Paul Giamatti Bradley Cooper Jeffrey Wright Colman Domingo
Best Actress
Emma Stone Lily Gladstone Margot Robbie Fantasia Barrino Greta Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr Robert DeNiro Ryan Gosling Sterling K Brown Charles Melton
Best Supporting Actress
America Ferrera Da'Vine Joy Randolph Danielle Brooks Jodie Foster Sandra Huller
Best Original Screenplay
The Holdovers May December Past Lives Anatomy of a Fall Maestro
Best Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon American Fiction All of Us Strangers Zone of Interest
Best Editing
American Fiction Oppenheimer Maestro Poor Things Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Cinematography
Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon The Killer Maestro Poor Things
Best Sound
The Creator Maestro Oppenheimer Zone of Interest The Killer
Best Production Design
Barbie The Color Purple Poor Things Killers of the Flower Moon The Creator
Best Costume Design
Barbie The Color Purple Poor Things Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro
Best Hairstyling and Makeup
Poor Things Maestro Society of the Snow Golda Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Visual Effects
Godzilla Minus One The Creator Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Society of the Snow Across the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score
Oppenheimer Society of the Snow The Boy and the Heron Across the Spider-Verse The Color Purple
Best Original Song
I'm Just Ken- Barbie What Was I Made For- Barbie Am I Dreaming- Across the Spider-Verse Road to Freedom- Rustin Keep It Movin'- The Color Purple
Best Animated Feature
Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse The Boy and the Heron Nimona TMNT: Mutant Mayhem Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Best International Feature
The Taste of Things (France) Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) Perfect Days (Japan) Society of the Snow (Spain) Godland (Iceland)
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2024.01.19 00:13 ChrisMovieExpert My Final 96th Oscar Nomination Predictions (January 2024; Post BAFTA, SAG, DGA and PGA Nominations)
NOTE: With less than five days left until Oscar nominations and the nominations for BAFTA, PGA, DGA and SAG revealed, here are my final nomination predictions for the 96th Oscars. I now have a strong feeling the PGA might land a 10/10 this year with Best Picture.
Predictions may change.
Best Picture
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alternates: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple, May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Wildcards: The Boy and the Heron, Godzilla Minus One, The Iron Claw Best Director
- Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Alternates: Justine Trier, Anatomy of a Fall; Greta Gerwig, Barbie Wildcards: Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Celine Song, Past Lives Best Actor
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
Alternates: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon Wildcards: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw; Christian Friedel, The Zone of Interest Best Actress
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Margot Robbie, Barbie
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternates: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Greta Lee, Past Lives Wildcards: Natalie Portman, May December; Aunjanue Ellis, Origin Best Supporting Actor
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Robert de Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
- Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Alternates: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Charles Melton, May December Wildcards: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall; Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers Best Supporting Actress
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Alternates: America Ferrera, Barbie; Julianne Moore, May December Wildcards: Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers; Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret; Jodie Foster, Nyad Best Original Screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- May December
- Past Lives
Alternates: Air, Fallen Leaves Wildcards: The Boy and the Heron, The Iron Claw Best Adapted Screenplay
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alternates: All of Us Strangers, Killers of the Flower Moon Wildcards: Are You There, God? It's Me Margaret; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Best Animated Feature
- The Boy and the Heron
- Nimona
- Robot Dreams
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alternates: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental Wildcards: The Peasants, The Super Mario Bros. Movie Best Documentary Feature
- American Symphony
- Beyond Utopia
- The Eternal Memory
- Four Daughters
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Alternates: 32 Sounds; Apolonia, Apolonia; Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie Wildcards: Bobi Wine: The People's President, A Still Small Voice, To Kill A Tiger Best International Feature
- Fallen Leaves
- Perfect Days
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Society of the Snow
- The Zone of Interest
Alternates: Four Daughters, The Promised Land, The Taste of Things, The Teacher's Lounge Wildcards: Amerikatsi, Io Captaino, The Monk and the Gun, The Mother of All Lies, Totem Best Production Design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alternates: The Color Purple, Maestro, Napoleon Wildcards: Asteroid City, Saltburn, Wonka Best Cinematography
- El Conde
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Next in line: Barbie, Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn Wildcards: The Color Purple, The Creator, Ferrari, John Wick: Chapter 4 Best Costume Design
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
- Poor Things
- Wonka
Alternates: The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Saltburn Wildcards: Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret; Asteroid City, The Zone of Interest Best Film Editing
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
Alternates: American Fiction, The Holdovers, Maestro, Poor Things Wildcards: Ferrari, The Killer, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Golda
- The Last Voyage of the Demeter
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
Alternates: Ferrari, Napoleon, Oppenheimer Wildcards: Beau is Afraid, Killers of the Flower Moon Best Sound
- Barbie
- Ferrari
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
Alternates: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon Wildcards: The Creator, The Killer, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Best Visual Effects
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Society of the Snow
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternates: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Napoleon, Poor Things Wildcards: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, Rebel Moon Part One: A Child of Fire Best Original Score
- Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
- Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
- Michael Giacchino, Society of the Snow
- Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternates: Laura Karpman, American Fiction; Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie; Joe Hisashi, The Boy and the Heron; Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest Wildcards: Jon Batiste, American Symphony; Thomas Newman, Elemental; Mark Orton, The Holdovers; John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny; Anthony Willis, Saltburn Best Original Song
- It Never Went Away, American Symphony
- I'm Just Ken, Barbie
- What Was I Made For?, Barbie
- The Fire Inside, Flamin' Hot
- Road to Freedom, Rustin
Alternates: Dance the Night, Barbie; Keep It Movin', The Color Purple; Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People), Killers of the Flower Moon; Am I Dreaming?, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Wildcards: Superpower (I), The Color Purple; High Life, Flora and Son; Meet Me in the Middle, Flora and Son; Quiet Eyes, Past Lives Best Animated Short Film
- A Kind of Testament
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Once Upon A Studio
- Pete
- War is Over!
Alternates: Boom, Eeva, Hevo (Smoke), Letter to a Pig, 27 Wildcards: I'm Hip, Koerkorter (Dog Apartment), Pachyderme, Wild Summon Best Documentary Short Film
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Deciding Vote
- The Last Repair Shop
- Last Song from Kabul
Alternates: Between Earth & Sky, Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games, Camp Courage, Oasis Wildcards: How We Get Free, If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis, Island in Between, Wings of Dust Best Live-Action Short Film
- The After
- The Anne Frank Gift Shop
- The Shepherd
- Strange Way of Life
- The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar
Alternates: Good Boy, Knight of Fortune, The One Note Man; Red, White and Blue, Yellow Wildcards: An Avocado Pit, Invincible, Invisible Border submitted by
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2024.01.07 20:57 BentisKomprakriev Scorechart Update for 2023-2024 (Pre-Globe Edition)
| Best Picture | Studio | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | Universal | 45 | 11 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Apple | 41 | 10 |
| Past Lives | A24 | 39 | 7 |
| Barbie | Warner Bros | 38 | 3 |
| Poor Things | Searchlight | 35 | 2 |
| The Holdovers | Focus | 30 | 2 |
| American Fiction | MGM | 27 | 2 |
| May December | Netflix | 21 | |
| The Zone of Interest | A24 | 18 | 2 |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Sony | 16 | |
| |
| Anatomy of a Fall | Neon | 15 | |
| |
| Maestro | Netflix | 11 | |
| All of Us Strangers | Searchlight | 5 | |
| The Color Purple | Warner Bros | 5 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | Toho | 4 | |
| The Boy and the Heron | GKids | 3 | 1 |
| Ferrari | Neon | 3 | |
| Origin | Neon | 3 | |
| Passages | SBS | 3 | |
| Saltburn | MGM | 3 | |
| The Iron Claw | A24 | 3 | |
| Are You There God? It's Me Margaret | Lionsgate | 2 | 1 |
| A Thousand and One | Focus | 2 | |
| Air | Amazon | 2 | |
| Asteroid City | Focus | 2 | |
| Dream Scenario | A24 | 1 | |
| Godland | | 1 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | Lionsgate | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | | 1 | |
| Priscilla | A24 | 1 | |
| Reality | HBO | 1 | |
| Robot Dreams | | 1 | |
| Rustin | Netflix | 1 | |
| Scrapper | | 1 | |
| Showing Up | A24 | 1 | |
| The Eight Mountains | | 1 | |
| The Killer | Netflix | 1 | |
| Best Director | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Christopher Nolan | Oppenheimer | 44 | 20 |
| Martin Scorsese | Killers of the Flower Moon | 33 | 6 |
| Greta Gerwig | Barbie | 30 | 3 |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | Poor Things | 26 | 3 |
| Celine Song | Past Lives | 25 | 3 |
| |
| Jonathan Glazer | The Zone of Interest | 13 | 4 |
| |
| Todd Haynes | May December | 9 | 1 |
| Cord Jefferson | American Fiction | 8 | 1 |
| Bradley Cooper | Maestro | 7 | |
| Justine Triet | Anatomy of a Fall | 6 | |
| Alexander Payne | The Holdovers | 5 | |
| Emerald Fennell | Saltburn | 5 | |
| Albert Serra | Pacifiction | 2 | 1 |
| Ava Duverney | Origin | 2 | |
| Wes Anderson | Asteroid City | 2 | |
| A.V. Rockwell | A Thousand and One | 1 | |
| Andrew Haigh | All of Us Strangers | 1 | |
| Ben Affleck | Air | 1 | |
| Blitz Bazawule | The Color Purple | 1 | |
| Ira Sachs | Passages | 1 | |
| Kelly Freeman Craig | Are You There God? It's Me Margaret | 1 | |
| Michael B. Jordan | Creed III | 1 | |
| William Oldroyd | Eileen | 1 | |
| Best Actor | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Cillian Murphy | Oppenheimer | 43 | 19 |
| Jeffrey Wright | American Fiction | 35 | 4 |
| Paul Giamatti | The Holdovers | 33 | 9 |
| Bradley Cooper | Maestro | 26 | 2 |
| Andrew Scott | All of Us Strangers | 23 | 2 |
| |
| Colman Domingo | Rustin | 14 | |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | Killers of the Flower Moon | 11 | |
| Barry Keoghan | Saltburn | 10 | |
| Franz Rogowski | Passages | 7 | 2 |
| Kōji Yakusho | Perfect Days | 5 | |
| Nicolas Cage | Dream Scenario | 4 | |
| Zac Efron | The Iron Claw | 4 | |
| Teo Yoo | Past Lives | 3 | 1 |
| Joaquin Phoenix | Beau is Afraid | 3 | |
| Benoît Magimel | Pacifiction | 2 | |
| Luca Marinelli | The Eight Mountains | 2 | |
| Adam Driver | Ferrari | 1 | |
| Denis Ménochet | The Beasts | 1 | |
| Gael Garcia Bernal | Cassandro | 1 | |
| Glen Powell | Hit Man | 1 | |
| Jamie Foxx | The Burial | 1 | |
| John Boyega | They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Kelvin Harrison Jr. | Chevalier | 1 | |
| Matt Damon | Air | 1 | |
| Michael B. Jordan | Creed III | 1 | |
| Timothee Chalamet | Wonka | 1 | |
| Best Actress | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Lily Gladstone | Killers of the Flower Moon | 43 | 23 |
| Emma Stone | Poor Things | 42 | 14 |
| Sandra Hüller | Anatomy of a Fall | 30 | 5 |
| Greta Lee | Past Lives | 30 | |
| Margot Robbie | Barbie | 22 | 1 |
| |
| Carey Mulligan | Maestro | 15 | |
| Natalie Portman | May December | 12 | |
| |
| Teyana Taylor | A Thousand and One | 6 | |
| Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor | Origin | 5 | 1 |
| Annette Bening | Nyad | 4 | |
| Cailee Spaeny | Priscilla | 4 | |
| Fantasia Barrino | The Color Purple | 4 | |
| Alma Pöysti | Fallen Leaves | 2 | |
| Lily Gladstone | The Unknown Country | 1 | 1 |
| Abby Ryder Fortson | Are You There God? It's Me Margaret | 1 | |
| Babetida Sadjo | Our Father, The Devil | 1 | |
| Cate Blanchett | The New Boy | 1 | |
| Helen Mirren | Golda | 1 | |
| Jennifer Lawrence | No Hard Feelings | 1 | |
| Jessica Chastain | Memory | 1 | |
| Judy Reyes | Birth/Rebirth | 1 | |
| Michelle Williams | Showing Up | 1 | |
| Penélope Cruz | Ferrari | 1 | |
| Sophie Wilde | Talk To Me | 1 | |
| Sydney Sweeney | Reality | 1 | |
| Trace Lysette | Monica | 1 | |
| Best Supporting Actor | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Robert Downey Jr. | Oppenheimer | 39 | 12 |
| Ryan Gosling | Barbie | 41 | 11 |
| Charles Melton | May December | 37 | 10 |
| Mark Ruffalo | Poor Things | 29 | 3 |
| Robert De Niro | Killers of the Flower Moon | 16 | |
| |
| Glenn Howerton | BlackBerry | 12 | 1 |
| Sterling K. Brown | American Fiction | 12 | 1 |
| Dominic Sessa | The Holdovers | 11 | 1 |
| |
| Willem Dafoe | Poor Things | 4 | |
| Colman Domingo | The Color Purple | 2 | |
| Jamie Foxx | They Cloned Tyrone | 2 | |
| John Magaro | Past Lives | 2 | |
| Alessandro Borghi | The Eight Mountains | 1 | |
| Ben Whishaw | Passages | 1 | |
| Donnie Yen | John Wick: Chapter 4 | 1 | |
| Ingvar Sigurðsson | Godland | 1 | |
| Jacob Elordi | Saltburn | 1 | |
| Jonathan Majors | Creed III | 1 | |
| Matt Damon | Oppenheimer | 1 | |
| Milo Machado Graner | Anatomy of a Fall | 1 | |
| Noah Galvi | Theater Camp | 1 | |
| Paul Mescal | All of Us Strangers | 1 | |
| Best Supporting Actress | Film | Noms | Wins |
| Da'Vine Joy Randolph | The Holdovers | 50 | 31 |
| Rachel McAdams | Are You There God? It's Me Margaret | 24 | 5 |
| Julianne Moore | May December | 24 | 1 |
| Emily Blunt | Oppenheimer | 22 | |
| Danielle Brooks | The Color Purple | 16 | 1 |
| |
| Rosamund Pike | Saltburn | 12 | |
| Jodie Foster | Nyad | 11 | 1 |
| America Ferrera | Barbie | 11 | |
| Penélope Cruz | Ferrari | 8 | |
| Sandra Hüller | The Zone of Interest | 8 | |
| Viola Davis | Air | 5 | |
| Anne Hathaway | Eileen | 2 | |
| Claire Foy | All of Us Strangers | 2 | |
| Erika Alexander | American Fiction | 2 | |
| Juliette Binoche | The Taste of Things | 2 | |
| Adèle Exarchopoulos | Passages | 1 | |
| Catalina Saavedra | Rotting in the Sun | 1 | |
| Hong Chau | Showing Up | 1 | |
| Jurnee Smollett | The Burial | 1 | |
| Lily Gladstone | Killers of the Flower Moon | 1 | |
| Marin Ireland | Eileen | 1 | |
| Pahoa Mahagafanau | Pacifiction | 1 | |
| Sigourney Weaver | Master Gardener | 1 | |
| Taraji P. Henson | The Color Purple | 1 | |
| Vanessa Kirby | Napoleon | 1 | |
| Best Original Screenplay | Noms | Wins |
| The Holdovers | 37 | 13 |
| Past Lives | 36 | 9 |
| Barbie | 31 | 6 |
| May December | 28 | 6 |
| Anatomy of a Fall | 26 | 4 |
| |
| Air | 6 | |
| Maestro | 5 | 1 |
| Asteroid City | 3 | |
| Saltburn | 3 | |
| The Iron Claw | 2 | |
| A Thousand and One | 1 | |
| Birth/Rebirth | 1 | |
| Bottoms | 1 | |
| Dream Scenario | 1 | |
| Fallen Leaves | 1 | |
| Master Gardener | 1 | |
| R.M.N. | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| The Beasts | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| You Hurt My Feelings | 1 | |
| Best Adapted Screenplay | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | 34 | 10 |
| Poor Things | 30 | 4 |
| American Fiction | 28 | 6 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 27 | 5 |
| Are You There God? It's Me Margaret | 16 | 3 |
| |
| All of Us Strangers | 11 | 1 |
| The Zone of Interest | 9 | 1 |
| Origin | 3 | |
| The Eight Mountains | 1 | 1 |
| Barbie | 1 | |
| Ferrari | 1 | |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 1 | |
| Best International Film | Submitted by | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Anatomy of a Fall | | 44 | 21 | |
| The Zone of Interest | United Kingdom | 39 | 10 | ✓ |
| Godzilla Minus One | | 18 | 2 | |
| Fallen Leaves | Finland | 17 | 2 | ✓ |
| Perfect Days | Japan | 15 | | ✓ |
| |
| The Taste of Things | France | 14 | | ✓ |
| The Boy and the Heron | | 12 | 1 | |
| Society of the Snow | Spain | 9 | | ✓ |
| The Teachers' Lounge | Germany | 8 | | ✓ |
| Past Lives | | 6 | |
| Totem | Mexico | 5 | | ✓ |
| Monster | | 3 | |
| Afire | | 2 | 1 | |
| Godland | Iceland | 2 | | ✓ |
| Io Capitano | Italy | 2 | | ✓ |
| Blaga's Lessons | Bulgaria | 1 | |
| Brother | | 1 | |
| Concrete Utopia | South Korea | 1 | |
| Four Daughters | Tunisia | 1 | | ✓ |
| Jawan | | 1 | |
| La Chimera | | 1 | |
| Mami Wata | Nigeria | 1 | |
| Other People's Children | | 1 | |
| Our Father, the Devil | | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | | 1 | |
| Radical | | 1 | |
| The Eight Mountains | | 1 | |
| The Three Musketeers:- Part I: D’Artagnan | | 1 | |
| When Evil Lurks | | 1 | |
| |
| 20 Days in Mariupol | Ukraine | 0 | | ✓ |
| Amerikatsi | Armenia | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Monk and the Gun | Bhutan | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Mother of All Lies | Morocco | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Promised Land | Denmark | 0 | | ✓ |
(Films with only an HMMA nomination are not listed)
| Best Score/Music | Composer | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Oppenheimer | Ludwig Göransson | 31 | 14 | ✓ |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Robbie Robertson | 28 | 8 | ✓ |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Daniel Pemberton | 22 | 1 | ✓ |
| Poor Things | Jerskin Fendrix | 19 | | ✓ |
| The Zone of Interest | Mica Levi | 14 | 2 | ✓ |
| |
| Barbie | Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt | 9 | 2 | ✓ |
| Society of the Snow | Michael Giacchino | 5 | 1 | ✓ |
| American Fiction | Laura Karpman | 5 | | ✓ |
| The Boy and the Heron | Joe Hisaishi | 4 | 1 | ✓ |
| The Killer | Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross | 4 | |
| Saltburn | Anthony Willis | 3 | | ✓ |
| American Symphony | Jon Batiste | 2 | | ✓ |
| Chevalier | Kris Bowers | 2 | |
| Elemental | Thomas Newman | 2 | | ✓ |
| Rustin | Branford Marsalis | 2 | |
| The Color Purple | Kris Bowers | 2 | | ✓ |
| A Thousand and One | Gary Gunn | 1 | | |
| May December | Marcelo Zarvos | 1 | | |
| The Holdovers | Mark Orton | 1 | | ✓ |
| |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | John Williams | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Cinematography | Director of Photography | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | Hoyte van Hoytema | 39 | 25 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Rodrigo Prieto | 29 | 5 |
| Poor Things | Robbie Ryan | 27 | 4 |
| Maestro | Matthew Libatique | 16 | |
| Barbie | Rodrigo Prieto | 15 | 1 |
| |
| The Zone of Interest | Łukasz Żal | 10 | |
| Saltburn | Linus Sandgren | 8 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | Dan Laustsen | 5 | 1 |
| All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt | Jomo Fray | 4 | |
| Asteroid City | Robert Yeoman | 4 | |
| Napoleon | Dariusz Wolski | 4 | |
| Pacifiction | Artur Tort | 2 | 1 |
| Ferrari | Erik Messerschmidt | 2 | |
| Godland | Maria von Hausswolff | 2 | |
| A Haunting in Venice | Haris Zambarloukos | 1 | 1 |
| The Taste of Things | Jonathan Ricquebourg | 1 | 1 |
| Chronicles of a Wandering Saint | Pablo Lozano | 1 | |
| Earth Mama | Jody Lee Lipes | 1 | |
| El Conde | Edward Lachman | 1 | |
| Enys Men | Mark Jenkin | 1 | |
| Kokomo City | D. Smith | 1 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | Fraser Taggart | 1 | |
| Monica | Katelin Arizmendi | 1 | |
| Past Lives | Shabier Kirchner | 1 | |
| Rye Lane | Olan Collardy | 1 | |
| Silver Dollar Road | Henry Adebonojo & Antonio Rossi | 1 | |
| The Creator | Greig Fraser & Oren Soffer | 1 | |
| The Eight Mountains | Ruben Impens | 1 | |
| The Holdovers | Eigil Bryld | 1 | |
| The Iron Claw | Mátyás Erdély | 1 | |
| We Grown Now | Pat Scola | 1 | |
| Best Documentary | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie | 35 | 18 | ✓ |
| 20 Days in Mariupol | 29 | 3 | ✓ |
| American Symphony | 23 | 6 | ✓ |
| Beyond Utopia | 23 | 1 | ✓ |
| Kokomo City | 17 | 4 | |
| |
| Menus Plaisirs - Les Troisgros | 13 | 6 | |
| Four Daughters | 12 | 1 | ✓ |
| Little Richard: I Am Everything | 11 | |
| The Eternal Memory | 9 | 1 | ✓ |
| The Mission | 7 | |
| The Deepest Breath | 5 | 1 | |
| The Pigeon Tunnel | 4 | |
| Smoke Sauna Sisterhood | 3 | 1 | |
| Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project | 3 | | ✓ |
| Stamped from the Beginning | 3 | | ✓ |
| The Mother of All Lies | 3 | |
| Geographies of Solitude | 2 | 1 | |
| 32 Sounds | 2 | | ✓ |
| A Still Small Voice | 2 | | ✓ |
| Against the Tide | 2 | |
| Anhell69 | 2 | |
| Apolonia, Apolonia | 2 | | ✓ |
| Judy Blume Forever | 2 | |
| Our Body | 2 | |
| Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour | 2 | |
| The Disappearance of Shere Hite | 2 | |
| The Fabric of the Human Body | 2 | |
| Anselm | 1 | 1 | |
| To Kill a Tiger | 1 | 1 | ✓ |
| 406 Days | 1 | |
| A Disturbance in the Force | 1 | |
| Albert Brooks: Defending Your Life | 1 | |
| Bad Press | 1 | |
| Bobi Wine: The People's President | 1 | | ✓ |
| Bye Bye Tiberias | 1 | |
| Close to Vermeer | 1 | |
| Even Hell Has Its Heroes | 1 | |
| I Dream in Photos | 1 | |
| In the Rearview | 1 | | ✓ |
| In the Shadow of Beirut | 1 | |
| It Ain't Over | 1 | |
| Lakota Nation vs. United States | 1 | |
| Love to Love You, Donna Summer | 1 | |
| May the Lord Watch: The Little Brother Story | 1 | |
| Milisuthando | 1 | |
| Q | 1 | |
| Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Scala!!! | 1 | |
| Silver Dollar Road | 1 | |
| Sly | 1 | |
| So This Is Christmas | 1 | |
| Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) | 1 | |
| Stolen | 1 | |
| Swan Song | 1 | |
| Take Care of Maya | 1 | |
| They Shot the Piano Player | 1 | |
| While We Watched | 1 | |
| |
| Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Animated Film | Noms | Wins |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 42 | 22 |
| The Boy and the Heron | 35 | 11 |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem | 27 | |
| Elemental | 20 | |
| Robot Dreams | 17 | 2 |
| |
| Nimona | 13 | |
| Suzume | 7 | |
| The Super Mario Bros. Movie | 5 | |
| Wish | 4 | |
| The Peasants | 2 | |
| Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget | 1 | |
| Leo | 1 | |
| Best Editing | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | 24 | 12 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 20 | 4 |
| Poor Things | 13 | |
| Barbie | 11 | |
| Maestro | 7 | |
| |
| Anatomy of a Fall | 6 | 2 |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 5 | 1 |
| The Holdovers | 5 | |
| Air | 2 | |
| Past Lives | 2 | |
| The Killer | 2 | |
| The Zone of Interest | 2 | |
| All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt | 1 | |
| All of Us Strangers | 1 | |
| Ferrari | 1 | |
| Full Time | 1 | |
| How to Blow Up a Pipeline | 1 | |
| Kokomo City | 1 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One | 1 | |
| Origin | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | 1 | |
| Rotting in the Sun | 1 | |
| The Color Purple | 1 | |
| Theater Camp | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Upon Entry | 1 | |
| We Grown Now | 1 | |
| Best Production Design | Noms | Wins |
| Barbie | 22 | 13 |
| Poor Things | 19 | |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 17 | 1 |
| Oppenheimer | 15 | |
| Asteroid City | 13 | 1 |
| |
| Napoleon | 4 | |
| Saltburn | 3 | |
| Maestro | 2 | |
| The Little Mermaid | 2 | |
| Wonka | 2 | |
| American Fiction | 1 | |
| Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret | 1 | |
| Beau Is Afraid | 1 | |
| Candy Cane Lane | 1 | |
| Chevalier | 1 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 1 | |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | 1 | |
| Leave the World Behind | 1 | |
| May December | 1 | |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One | 1 | |
| Pacifiction | 1 | |
| Priscilla | 1 | |
| Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 1 | |
| The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | 1 | |
| The Color Purple | 1 | |
| The Creator | 1 | |
| The Killer | 1 | |
| The Zone of Interest | 1 | |
| Best Costume Design | Noms | Wins |
| Barbie | 16 | 7 |
| Poor Things | 16 | 3 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 13 | |
| |
| Napoleon | 7 | |
| Oppenheimer | 7 | |
| The Color Purple | 7 | |
| |
| Priscilla | 5 | |
| Asteroid City | 3 | |
| Air | 1 | |
| American Fiction | 1 | |
| Chevalier | 1 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 1 | |
| Haunted Mansion | 1 | |
| Maestro | 1 | |
| May December | 1 | |
| Nyad | 1 | |
| Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire | 1 | |
| Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Renfield | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| Saltburn | 1 | |
| The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | 1 | |
| The Little Mermaid | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Wonka | 1 | |
| Best Visual Effects | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Godzilla Minus One | 12 | 6 | ✓ |
| The Creator | 16 | 4 | ✓ |
| Oppenheimer | 16 | 1 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 13 | 1 | ✓ |
| Poor Things | 13 | | ✓ |
| |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | 10 | | ✓ |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 9 | 2 | ✓ |
| |
| Barbie | 2 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 1 | |
| Napoleon | 1 | | ✓ |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | 1 | |
| |
| Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | 0 | | ✓ |
| Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire | 0 | | ✓ |
| Society of the Snow | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Sound | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Oppenheimer | 8 | 4 | ✓ |
| Maestro | 6 | | ✓ |
| The Zone of Interest | 5 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ferrari | 4 | | ✓ |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 4 | |
| |
| Napoleon | 3 | | ✓ |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 2 | |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 2 | | ✓ |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | 2 | | ✓ |
| The Killer | 2 | | ✓ |
| Pacifiction | 1 | 1 | |
| American Symphony | 1 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | 1 | |
| The First Slam Dunk | 1 | |
| |
| Barbie | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Creator | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Original Song | Film | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| I'm Just Ken | Barbie | 15 | 6 | ✓ |
| What Was I Made For? | Barbie | 14 | 3 | ✓ |
| Peaches | The Super Mario Bros Movie | 10 | |
| Road to Freedom | Rustin | 10 | | ✓ |
| |
| Am I Dreaming | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 5 | | ✓ |
| Dance the Night | Barbie | 5 | | ✓ |
| |
| Can't Catch Me Now | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes | 3 | 1 | ✓ |
| It Never Went Away | American Symphony | 3 | | ✓ |
| The Fire Inside | Flamin' Hot | 3 | | ✓ |
| Camp Isn't Home | Theater Camp | 2 | |
| Keep It Movin' | The Color Purple | 2 | | ✓ |
| Quiet Eyes | Past Lives | 2 | | ✓ |
| This Wish | Wish | 2 | |
| I Got You | Holiday Twist | 1 | 1 | |
| A World of Your Own | Wonka | 1 | |
| Addicted to Romance | She Came to Me | 1 | |
| All About Me | The L Word: Generation Q | 1 | |
| Better Place | Trolls Band Together | 1 | |
| Better Times | Jacob the Baker | 1 | |
| Don't Forget Me When I'm Gone | Sons 2 the Grave | 1 | |
| El Saber | Radical | 1 | |
| For the First Time | The Little Mermaid | 1 | |
| High Life | Flora and Son | 1 | | ✓ |
| I Am | Origin | 1 | |
| My House | Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | 1 | |
| Slip Away | Carmen | 1 | |
| Stardust | A Good Person | 1 | |
| This | The Beanie Bubble | 1 | |
| Wild Uncharted Waters | The Little Mermaid | 1 | |
| You've Never Had Chocolate Like This | Wonka | 1 | |
| |
| Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven) | Asteroid City | 0 | | ✓ |
| Meet In The Middle | Flora and Son | 0 | | ✓ |
| Superpower (I) | The Color Purple | 0 | | ✓ |
| Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) | Killers of the Flower Moon | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Noms | Wins | Shortlist |
| Poor Things | 7 | 2 | ✓ |
| Barbie | 6 | 1 | |
| Maestro | 6 | 1 | ✓ |
| Oppenheimer | 5 | | ✓ |
| The Color Purple | 4 | |
| |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 3 | |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 2 | | ✓ |
| A Thousand and One | 1 | |
| Air | 1 | |
| Bottoms | 1 | |
| Candy Cane Lane | 1 | |
| Chevalier | 1 | |
| Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | 1 | |
| Ferrari | 1 | | ✓ |
| Golda | 1 | | ✓ |
| Joyride | 1 | |
| Medusa Deluxe | 1 | |
| Nyad | 1 | |
| Pain Hustlers | 1 | |
| Priscilla | 1 | |
| Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| Saltburn | 1 | |
| The Haunted Mansion | 1 | |
| |
| Beau Is Afraid | 0 | | ✓ |
| Napoleon | 0 | | ✓ |
| Society of the Snow | 0 | | ✓ |
| The Last Voyage of the Demeter | 0 | | ✓ |
| Best Ensemble | Noms | Wins |
| Oppenheimer | 29 | 15 |
| Barbie | 20 | 3 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | 17 | 2 |
| The Holdovers | 13 | 2 |
| Asteroid City | 10 | |
| |
| The Color Purple | 7 | 2 |
| Poor Things | 6 | 1 |
| Air | 6 | |
| American Fiction | 5 | 2 |
| The Iron Claw | 4 | 2 |
| Saltburn | 3 | |
| Showing Up | 1 | 1 |
| A Haunting in Venice | 1 | |
| How to Blow Up a Pipeline | 1 | |
| Rustin | 1 | |
| The Blackening | 1 | |
| They Cloned Tyrone | 1 | |
| Best Stunts and Choreography | Noms | Wins |
| John Wick: Chapter 4 | 16 | 9 |
| Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One | 13 | 4 |
| Polite Society | 6 | |
| The Iron Claw | 6 | |
| |
| Extraction 2 | 4 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | 4 | |
| The Killer | 4 | |
| |
| Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | 3 | |
| Silent Night | 3 | |
| Godzilla Minus One | 2 | |
| Sisu | 2 | |
| Barbie | 1 | |
| Fast X | 1 | |
| Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny | 1 | |
| Napoleon | 1 | |
Included Groups:
- Alliance Of Women Film Journalists (AWFJ)
- Atlanta Film Critics Circle (AFCC)
- Austin Film Critics Association (AFCA)
- Australian Academy Of Cinema & Television Arts (AACTA) International Awards
- Black Film Critics Circle (BFCC)
- Black Reel Awards (BRA)
- Boston Online Film Critics Association (BOFCA)
- Boston Society Of Film Critics (BSFC)
- Chicago Film Critics Association (CFCA)
- Cinema Eye Honors Documentary Awards (CEHA)
- Columbus Film Critics Association (COFCA)
- Costume Designers Guild (CDG)
- Critics Association Of Central Florida (CACF)
- Critics Choice Award (CCA)
- Dallas Fort-Worth Film Critics Association (DFWFCA)
- Denver Film Critics Society (DFCS)
- DiscussingFilm Critic Award (DFCA)
- Dublin Film Critics Circle (DFCC)
- Film Independent Spirit Awards
- Florida Film Critics Circle (FFCC)
- Georgia Film Critics Association (GAFCA)
- Golden Globe
- Golden Globes
- Gotham Awards
- Greater Western New York Film Critics Association (GWNYFCA)
- Hawaii Film Critics Society (HFCS)
- Hollywood Creative Alliance (HCA)
- Indiana Film Journalists Association (IFJA)
- IndieWire Critics Poll
- International Cinephile Society Awards (ICS)
- International Documentary Association (IDA)
- Las Vegas Film Critics Society (LVFCS)
- London Film Critics Circle (LFCC)
- Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA)
- Makeup Artists & Hair Stylists Guild (MUAHS)
- Michigan Movie Critics Guild (MMCG)
- National Board of Review (NBR)
- National Society Of Film Critics (NSFC)
- Nevada Film Critics Society (NFCS)
- New Mexico Critics
- New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC)
- New York Film Critics Online (NYFCO)
- North Carolina Film Critics Association (NCFCA)
- North Texas Film Critics Association (NTFCA)
- Oklahoma Film Critics Circle (OFCC)
- Online Association Of Female Film Critics (OAFFC)
- Philadelphia Film Critics Circle (PFCC)
- Phoenix Critics Circle (PCC)
- Phoenix Film Critics Society (PFCS)
- Portland Critics Association (PCA)
- San Diego Film Critics Society (SDFCS)
- San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC)
- Satellite Award (IPA)
- Seattle Film Critics Society (SFCS)
- Set Decorators Society Of America (SDSA)
- Society Of Composers And Lyricists (SCL)
- Southern Eastern Film Critics Association (SEFCA)
- St. Louis Film Critics Association (StLFCA)
- Toronto Film Critics Association (TFCA)
- UK Film Critics Association (UKFCA)
- Utah Film Critics Association (UFCA)
- Washington DC Area Film Critics Association (WAFCA)
- Women Film Critics Circle (WFCC)
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2024.01.04 23:56 sam084aos Pre Golden Globes Predictions
Best Picture - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- Barbie
- American Fiction
- Past Lives
- Anatomy of a Fall
- May December
Alt: 1. The Zone of Interest, 2. All of Us Strangers, 3. The Color Purple, 4. Society of the Snow
Before I had TZOI and AOUS taking the last 2 spots and I still see it as a possibility because they are having the most screenings rn but Anatomy of a Fall and May December make more sense. Anatomy of a Fall seems to appeal to every branch meanwhile I think TZOI will have trouble picking up votes from the acting branch that May December will pick up instead. I could also see voters having trouble just sitting down and watching TZOI at home meanwhile May December is an easier watch and Netflix is great at campaigning. I know everyone thinks American Fiction is getting the nom but I do wonder if it could miss.
Best Director - Christopher Nolan
- Martin Scorcese
- Yorgos Lanthimos
- Justine Triet
- Jonathan Glazer
Alt: 1. Greta Gerwig, 2. Bradley Cooper, 3. Celine Song
I just think the academy won't push for Greta. Meanwhile in the Indiewire article the directors loved Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. Last time I had Bradley Cooper instead of Justine and I still wouldn't count him out he loves sucking up to big directors and there are some flashy directorial moments so I wouldn't count him out.
Best Actor - Bradley Cooper
- Cillian Murphey
- Jefferey Wright
- Paul Giamatti
- Andrew Scott
Alt: 1. Leo Dicaprio, 2. Coleman Domingo
This is what I said in early November "My hottest take (that I'm probably wrong about) is that Leo won't make the cut, in a year full of strong performances they might not be very compelled to prop up Leo especially since there's a lot more buzz for Lilly. Coleman Domingo was great in Rustin but it's just such a generic biopic that I don't know if his performance is enough." and I stand by this. Plus Andrew is doing all of the campaigning and there are a ton of AOUS screenings leading up to the Oscar nominations. Plus Bill Hader said he heard good things about AOUS so I like to think that means something.
Best Actress - Emma Stone
- Carey Mulligan
- Sandra Huller
- Lilly Gladstone
- Natalie Portman
Alt: 1. Margot Robbie, 2. Greta Lee, 3. Fantasia Barrino
Same predictions as before except switching the alts. Right now I'm going for May December cause it's such an actor's movie but Greta Lee is so charismatic I could see her sneaking in.
Best Supporting Actor - Mark Ruffalo
- Robert Downey Jr.
- Charles Melton
- Ryan Gosling
- Robert De Niro
Alt: 1. William Dafoe, 2. Dominic Sessa
Last time I had William Dafoe instead of Gosling but now it seems like Gosling is pretty set.
Supporting Actress - Davine Joy Randolph
- Julianne Moore
- Danielle Brooks
- Emily Blunt
- Penelope Cruz
Alt: 1. Jodi Foster, 2. America Ferrera, 3. Claire Foy
Before I had Claire Foy instead of Emily but Emily has been campaigning and hitting all of the precursors. I still believe in Penelope cause there weirdly is a love for Ferrari and she's the best thing about it. Sure she hasn't gotten any precursors but if anyone can make it with no precursors it's Penelope.
Adapted Screenplay - American Fiction
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: AOUS
Before I had All of Us Strangers cause I did not want to believe that Barbie would come and take its spot now this category is still secure but there could be an upset. This is a bad theory but could some of the WGA academy members not want to support Barbie due to Greta crossing the picket line?
Original Screenplay - The Holdovers
- Past Lives
- Anatomy of a Fall
- May December
- Air
Alt: 1. Saltburn, 2. Maestro
I just don't think the screenplay branch will care about Maestro and while the Air screenplay is basic there is enough solid writing.
Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and The Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
Production Design - Poor Things
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
Alt: Asteroid City.
Makeup and Hairstyling - Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Society of the Snow
- Golda
Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
Alt: Wonka
VFX - Godzilla Minus One
- The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Society of the Snow
- Poor Things
International - Zone of Interest
- Society of the Snow
- Fallen Leaves
- Perfect Days
- The Taste of Things
Film Editing - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- Anatomy of a Fall
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
- The Killer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Alt: Napolean
Original Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Society of the Snow
Alt: The Boy and the Heron
Original Song - “I’m Just Ken” - Barbie
- “What Was I Made For?” - Barbie
- "It Never Went Away" - American Symphony
- "Road to Freedom" - Rustin
- "Meet in the Middle" - Flora and Son
Alt: "Quiet Eyes", "Am I Dreaming?"
I don't know much about this category but I feel like "Meet in the Middle" or "Quiet Eyes" could surprise us.
Documentary - 20 Days in Mariupol
- Four Daughters
- The Eternal Memory
- Beyond Utopia
- American Symphony
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2024.01.04 20:46 LeastCap January (Week 1) Predictions
I know I'm a few days late but I wanted to get my predictions in since we're only weeks away now
BEST PICTURE
In likelihood to be nominated:
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Poor Things
- Past Lives
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Maestro
- The Zone of Interest
I feel pretty confident my top 9 are getting nominated. Last month I had May December, The Color Purple and Across the SpiderVerse in my 10 but I have dropped them and added Past Lives, American Fiction, and The Zone of Interest. I had been going out on a limb that Past Lives would only get a screenplay nomination, but it has become undeniable at this point and I have added it back to BP. I took American Fiction out of my predictions last month because I didn't like it, and that was a stupid decision and I should know better than to take my own biases into account. So it is back in! My new number 10 is The Zone of Interest but I don’t feel very confident about it. I dont think SpiderMan is dead, and if it gets PGA I can see it getting a late push
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Color Purple
- May December
- Saltburn
- The Boy and the Heron
- Society of the Snow
- Air
- The Iron Claw
I don’t think anything else is in consideration after these.
In terms of winning Best Picture on Oscar night:
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- The Holdovers
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Anatomy of a Fall
- American Fiction
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
I am in agreement with everyone that the award is definitely Oppenheimer’s to lose, but I think Barbie will win in the end. I think the frontrunner curse wil catch up with Oppy eventually and Barbie will be perfectly positioned to surpass it.
Major precursor wins
GG Drama- Oppenheimer
GG Comedy- Poor Things
GG BO Achievement- Barbie
Critics Choice- Oppenheimer
DGA-Oppenheimer
BAFTA- Poor Things
SAG Ensemble- Barbie
PGA- Barbie
Oscar- Barbie
Director
- Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
- Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
- Greta Gerwig - Barbie
I’ve decided to drop Lanthimos and add in Glazer. I know I should pick only one of Triet or Glazer but I feel kinda okay going with both. I am really split on Gerwig getting a nomination. I think shes locked for DGA and BAFTA noms but I think she could still miss the Oscar. Nolan will sweep, if he loses anywhere itll be at Globes to Scorsese.
Next in line
- Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
- Bradley Cooper - Maestro
- Celine Song - Past Lives
- Hayao Miyazaki - The Boy and The Heron
- Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
Actress
- Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Emma Stone - Poor Things
- Margot Robbie - Barbie
- Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan - Maestro
I think Gladstone is going to win this. I see so much support rallied around her that I dont see being the type of thing that loses momentum. I’m predicting HulleStone split Globes, Gladstone wins CCA and SAG, and Huller wins BAFTA. My three major snubs are Greta Lee, Natalie Portman, and Fantasia Barrino. I think Lee will hit every precursor and be snubbed. SAG is the only precursor with 5 slots, and one of those 5 has to miss the Oscar lineup so Huller can get in, and I think she’s just the weakest.
- Greta Lee - Past Lives
- Natalie Portman - May December
- Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
- Alma Poysti - Fallen Leaves
- Cailee Spaeny - Priscilla
- Annette Benning - Nyad
- Trace Lysette - Monica
Actor
- Bradley Cooper - Maestro
- Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
- Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
- Zac Efron - The Iron Claw
Im predicting Zac Efron to be our Andrea Riseborough this year. I think he will get the SAG nom and there’s so much good will for him, and he’s worked with so many people for decades. I’m hopedicting a little
I dropped Scott after watching AouS. He’s excellent but I don’t know if I see it happening anymore. I would love for it to happen, but everyone else seems stronger. I’m still going with DiCaprio getting snubbed. And I don’t think Domingo was ever apart of the race to begin with tbh
I want to predict Murphy but I think he’s this years Collin Farrell. Critics are loving him but he’s just not what the Oscar’s go for. Cooper (no matter your opinion) is obviously doing as much as any actor could do and I think he’s just going to win it in the end. I believe Cooper will sweep
- Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers
- Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Colman Domingo - Rustin
- Teo Yoo - Past Lives
- Koji Yakusho - Perfect Days
- Matt Damon - Air
Supporting Actress
- Rachel McAdams - Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
- America Ferrera - Barbie
Ignore the order on this one, I have no idea what it is. I dropped Henson and Moore and I added Ferrera and McAdams. Ferrera is everywhere and I think she will come along with Barbie’s over performance. I’m going with a McAdams win because I think this is the perfect category for a late narrative to break in. Randolph has never really felt like she will go all the way, and Brooks gets weaker by the day, and if McAdams can secure SAG then I think she could take a win there all the way to an Oscar nom. Definitely a riskier prediction, but I see the path for her. I also think Rosamund Pike is stronger than we think. She’s been campaigning a lot and somehow people enjoy Saltburn so I don’t know if I can write it off completely. If it were to get nominated anywhere it would be here or cinematography.
- Julianne Moore - May December
- Rosamund Pike -Saltburn
- Jodie Foster - Nyad
- Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple
- Claire Foy - All of Us Strangers
- Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
Supporting Actor
- Robert Downey, Jr - Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling - Barbie
- Charles Melton - May December
- Willem Dafoe - Poor Things
- Mark Ruffalo- Poor Things
I go back and forth on this constantly, and I know if I’m predicting Barbie to win BP i should predict Gosling, but I don’t see how Downey loses this.
Next in Line:
- Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sterling K Brown - American Fiction
- Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers
- Colman Domingo - The Color Purple
- Glenn Howerton - BlackBerry
- John Magaro - Past Lives
Adapted Screenplay
- Barbie*
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- American Fiction
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Easy top 5
- All of Us Strangers
- Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Priscilla
Original Screenplay
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Past Lives
- The Holdovers
- May December
- Air
The 5th nominee is going to be weird here. They should go with The Boy and the Heron but they won’t. I think Anatomy will win this after it wins at BAFTA
- Dream Scenario
- Saltburn
- The Iron Claw
- The Boy and The Heron
- Maestro
Animated Feature
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and The Heron
- Elemental
- Super Mario Bros. Movie
- Nimona
- Wish
- Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Film Editing
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Holdovers
- The Killer
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- Past Lives
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Sound
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- The Zone of Interest
- The Killer
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Napoleon
Original Score
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Boy and the Heron
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Elemental
- Indiana Jones
- The Zone of Interest
Original Song
- “I’m Just Ken” - Barbie
- “What Was I Made For?” - Barbie
- “Am I Dreaming?” - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- "Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)" from Killers of the Flower Moon
- “The Fire Inside” - Flamin Hot
- "Dance The Night" from Barbie
- "It Never Went Away" from American Symphony
- "Keep It Movin" from The Color Purple
- "Can't Catch Me Now" from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Cinematography
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Barbie
- Saltburn
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Production Design
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Napoleon
- Maestro
- Asteroid City.
Makeup and Hairstyling
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Society of the Snow
- Beau is Afraid
- Golda
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Costume Design
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Wonka
- Napoleon
- The Color Purple
- Priscilla
- Maestro
- Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
VFX
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
International
- Zone of Interest
- The Taste of Things
- Totem
- Society of the Snow
- Fallen Leaves
- The Monk and the Gun
- The Promised Land
- The Teachers’ Lounge
- Perfect Days
- Four Daughters
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary
- Four Daughters
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Beyond Utopia
- The Eternal Memory
- American Symphony
- Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
- 32 Sounds
- 20 Days in Mariupol
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2024.01.01 22:59 ChrisMovieExpert My 96th Oscar Predictions (January 2024; New Year's)
My first 96th Oscar predictions for 2024, and for the special occassion I put rankings instead of alphabetical as well as a Wildcards section alongside Alt and Next in line this time.
UPDATE: The Academy has revealed that Barbie will be competing in Adapted Screenplay instead of Original.
Predictions may tend to change.
Best Picture
- Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- American Fiction
- The Holdovers
- Maestro
- Past Lives
- The Zone of Interest
- Anatomy of a Fall
Next in line: The Boy and the Heron, May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Alt: All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple Wildcards: Godzilla Minus One, The Iron Claw Best Director
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Greta Gerwig, Barbie
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Next in line: Justine Trier, Anatomy of a Fall; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Celine Song, Past Lives Alt: Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction; Todd Haynes, May December Wildcards: Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron; Blitz the Ambassador, The Color Purple Best Actor
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Next in line: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Zac Efron, The Iron Claw; Colman Domingo, Rustin Alt: Adam Driver, Ferrari; Michael Fassbender, The Killer; Barry Keoghan, Saltburn Wildcards: Matt Damon, Air; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon; Christian Friedel, The Zone of Interest Best Actress
- Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Greta Lee, Past Lives
Next in line: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Natalie Portman, May December Alt: Annette Bening, Nyad; Aunjanue Ellis, Origin; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla Wildcards: Alma Poysti, Fallen Leaves; Eve Hewson, Flora and Son; Leonie Benesch, The Teacher's Lounge Best Supporting Actor
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
- Charles Melton, May December
- Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Next in line: Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert de Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon Alt: Colman Domingo, The Color Purple; Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; John Magaro, Past Lives Wildcards: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall; Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry; Holt McCallany, The Iron Claw Best Supporting Actress
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Julianne Moore, May December
- Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
- Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Next in line: Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret; America Ferrera, Barbie; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Alt: Viola Davis, Air; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Jodie Foster, Nyad Wildcards: Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers; Tantoo Cardinal, Killers of the Flower Moon; Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things Best Original Screenplay
- The Holdovers
- May December
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Past Lives
- Fallen Leaves
Next in line: The Boy and the Heron, The Iron Claw, Maestro Alt: Asteroid City, Elemental, Rustin Wildcards: Air, Dream Scenario, The Teacher's Lounge Best Adapted Screenplay
- Poor Things
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- American Fiction
Next in line: All of Us Strangers; Are You There, God? It's Me Margaret; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest Alt: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Nyad, Origin Wildcards: BlackBerry, The Killer, The Taste of Things Best Animated Feature
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Robot Dreams
- Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Next in line: Nimona, The Peasants, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Alt: Migration; Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken; Suzume, Wish Wildcards: The Magician's Elephant, The Monkey King, They Shot the Piano Player, Trolls Band Together Best Documentary Feature
- American Symphony
- Beyond Utopia
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Four Daughters
- The Eternal Memory
Next in line: 32 Sounds, Bobi Wine: The People's President, Stamped From The Beginning Alt: Apolonia, Apolonia; Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, To Kill A Tiger Wildcards: Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy; Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story, In the Rearview Best International Feature
- The Zone of Interest
- Society of the Snow
- Fallen Leaves
- Perfect Days
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Next in line: Four Daughters, The Promised Land, The Taste of Things, The Teacher's Lounge Alt: Io Captaino, The Monk and the Gun, The Mother of All Lies, Totem Wildcards: Amerikatsi, Godland Best Production Design
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
Next in line: The Color Purple, Napoleon, The Zone of Interest Alt: Asteroid City, Saltburn, Wonka Wildcards: Chevalier, The Creator, The Little Mermaid Best Cinematography
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
Next in line: Barbie, Ferrari, Napoleon, Saltburn Alt: The Color Purple, Nyad, Past Lives Wildcards: The Creator, El Conde, John Wick: Chapter 4 Best Costume Design
- Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Color Purple
- Napoleon
Next in line: Maestro, Oppenheimer, Priscilla, Wonka Alt: Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret; Asteroid City, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest Wildcards: Chevalier, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, The Little Mermaid Best Film Editing
- Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
Next in line: American Fiction, Maestro, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest Alt: Air, The Color Purple, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Wildcards: The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Napoleon Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
- Beau is Afraid
- Golda
Next in line: Ferrari, Oppenheimer Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon Wildcard: The Last Voyage of the Demeter Best Sound
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ferrari
Next in line: Barbie, Napoleon Alt: The Creator, The Killer Wildcard: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Best Visual Effects
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Society of the Snow
Next in line: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Poor Things Alt: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon Wildcard: Rebel Moon Part One: A Child of Fire Best Original Score
- Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
- Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
- Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Michael Giacchino, Society of the Snow
Next in line: Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie; Joe Hisashi, The Boy and the Heron; Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest Alt: Laura Karpman, American Fiction; Kris Bowers, The Color Purple; Thomas Newman, Elemental; John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Wildcards: Jon Batiste, American Symphony; Mark Orton, The Holdovers; Anthony Willis, Saltburn Best Original Song
- I'm Just Ken, Barbie
- What Was I Made For?, Barbie
- The Fire Inside, Flamin' Hot
- Road to Freedom, Rustin
- It Never Went Away, American Symphony
Next in line: Dance the Night, Barbie; Keep It Movin', The Color Purple; Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People), Killers of the Flower Moon; Am I Dreaming?, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Alt: Superpower (I), The Color Purple; High Life, Flora and Son; Meet Me in the Middle, Flora and Son; Quiet Eyes, Past Lives Wildcards: Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven), Asteroid City; Can't Catch Me Now, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Best Animated Short Film
- Once Upon A Studio
- Ninety-Five Senses
- 27
- A Kind of Testament
- I’m Hip
Next in line: Boom, Hevo (Smoke), Letter to a Pig, Our Uniform Alt: Eeva, Koerkorter (Dog Apartment), Pachyderme, Pete Wildcards: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko, Wild Summon Best Documentary Short Film
- The Last Repair Shop
- Deciding Vote
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Between Earth & Sky
Next in line: Camp Courage, How We Get Free, Last Song from Kabul, Oasis Alt: Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games, If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis, Island in Between, Wings of Dust Wildcards: Bear, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó Best Live-Action Short Film
- The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar
- Strange Way of Life
- The After
- The Shepherd
- The Anne Frank Gift Shop
Next in line: Invincible, Invisible Border, The One Note Man; Red, White and Blue Alt: Dead Cat, Good Boy, Knight of Fortune, Yellow Wildcards: An Avocado Pit, Bienvenidos a Los Angeles submitted by
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2024.01.01 05:58 DaFunnyman109 Finally Not Early, Actually Kinda Late Full Oscar Predictions - December (technically)
As always, subject to change.
BEST PICTURE - Oppenheimer (Universal)
- Barbie (Warner Bros.)
- The Holdovers (Focus Features)
- Poor Things (Searchlight)
- Killers Of The Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
- Past Lives (A24)
- Maestro (Netflix)
- Anatomy Of A Fall (Neon)
- American Fiction (MGM/Amazon)
- The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
(Alt: The Zone Of Interest (A24))
BEST DIRECTOR - Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsesse, Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer, The Zone Of Interest
- Greta Gerwig, Barbie
(Alt: Justine Triet, Anatomy Of A Fall)
BEST ACTOR - Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
(Alt: Leonardo Dicaprio, Killers Of The Flower Moon)
BEST ACTRESS - Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Emma Stone, Poor Things
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy Of A Fall
- Natalie Portman, May December
- Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
(Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Charles Melton, May December
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
- Robert De Niro, Killers Of The Flower Moon
(Alt: Paul Mescal, All Of Us Strangers)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- America Ferrara, Barbie
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Viola Davis, Air
(Alt: Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Past Lives
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy Of A Fall
- May December
- The Iron Claw
(Alt: Maestro)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Barbie
- American Fiction
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
(Alt: All Of Us Strangers)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
- The Boy & The Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
(Alt: Robot Dreams)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - The Zone Of Interest (UK)
- Perfect Days (Japan)
- Society Of The Snow (Spain)
- The Taste of Things (France)
- 20 Days In Mariupol (Ukraine)
(Alt: Fallen Leaves (Finland))
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Beyond Utopia
- Four Daughters
- 20 Days In Mariupol
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- A Still Small Voice
(Alt: Stamped From The Beginning)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- The Zone Of Interest
- Maestro
(Alt: The Color Purple)
BEST FILM EDITING - Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- The Holdovers
- Past Lives
(Alt: Poor Things)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - Poor Things
- Barbie
- The Color Purple
- Priscilla
- Wonka
(Alt: Killers Of The Flower Moon)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Asteroid City
(Alt: Wonka)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING - Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Napoleon
- Society Of The Snow
(Alt: Beau Is Afraid)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider Verse
- Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny
- Poor Things
(Alt: The Boy & The Heron)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - “I’m Just Ken”, Barbie (Mark Ronson)
- “What Was I Made For”, Barbie (Billie Eilish)
- “Keep It Movin’”, The Color Purple (Halle Bailey)
- “The Fire Inside”, Flamin’ Hot (Diane Warren)
- “It Never Went Away”, American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
(Alt: “Road To Freedom”, Rustin (Lenny Kravitz))
BEST SOUND - Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- The Zone Of Interest
- The Killer
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1
(Alt: Maestro)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - The Creator
- Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
- Godzilla: Minus One
- Indiana Jones and the Dial Of Destiny
- Napoleon
(Alt: Spider Man: Across The Spider-Verse)
BONUS: SAG ENSEMBLE - Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Killers Of The Flower Moon
- The Holdovers
- Air
(Alt: Poor Things)
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2023.12.31 20:06 Horror_Technician595 Final Oscar predictions before 2024 starts raking in the industry nominations
Only focusing on nominees not winners so each category will be listed in alphabetical order (also gonna skip the short categories for now):-
Best Picture:-
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: The Color Purple, May December
Best Director:-
- Greta Gerwig
- Yorgos Lanthimos
- Christopher Nolan
- Martin Scorsese
- Justine Triet
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Jonathan Glazer, Alexander Payne, Celine Song
Best Actor:-
- Bradley Cooper
- Leonardo DiCaprio
- Paul Giamatti
- Cillian Murphy
- Jeffrey Wright
Alts: Colman Domingo, Zac Efron, Andrew Scott
Best Actress:-
- Lily Gladstone
- Greta Lee
- Carey Mulligan
- Margot Robbie
- Emma Stone
Alts: Fantasia Barrino, Sandra Hüller, Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor:-
- Willem Dafoe
- Robert Downey, Jr.
- Ryan Gosling
- Charles Melton
- Mark Ruffalo
Alts: Sterling K. Brown, Robert De Niro, Dominic Sessa
Best Supporting Actress:-
- Emily Blunt
- Danielle Brooks
- America Ferrera
- Julianne Moore
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Alts: Penelope Cruz, Jodie Foster, Rachel McAdams, Rosamund Pike
Best Original Screenplay:-
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- May December
- Past Lives
Alts: Air, The Iron Claw, Maestro
Best Adapted Screenplay:-
- All of Us Strangers
- American Fiction
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Alts: Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret., Barbie(?), The Zone of Interest
Best Film Editing:-
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Alts: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Killer, Maestro
Best Sound:-
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Ferrari, The Killer, Napoleon
Best Cinematography:-
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Barbie, The Color Purple, Saltburn
Best Visual Effects:-
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
Alts: Indiana Jones & The Dial of Destiny, Society of the Snow
Best Costume Design:-
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Poor Things
- Wonka
Alts: Chevalier, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Oppenheimer
Best Production Design:-
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Alts: Asteroid City, The Color Purple, Saltburn
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling:-
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
Alts: Ferrari, Golda, Napoleon
Best Original Score:-
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: American Fiction, Barbie, The Boy & The Heron, Society of the Snow
Best Original Song:-
- "The Fire Inside"
- "I'm Just Ken"
- "It Never Went Away"
- "Quiet Eyes"
- "What Was I Made For?"
Alts: "Keep It Movin'", "Road to Freedom"
Best Animated Feature:-
- The Boy & The Heron
- Elemental
- Nimona
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alts: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Robot Dreams
Best International Feature:-
- Fallen Leaves
- Perfect Days
- Society of the Snow
- The Taste of Things
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Godland, The Monk and the Gun, The Promised Land, The Teachers' Lounge, Tótem
Best Documentary Feature:-
- American Symphony
- Beyond Utopia
- Four Daughters
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Alts: Apolonia, Apolonia, Bobi Wine: The People's President, The Eternal Memory, STILL: A Michael J. Fox Movie
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2023.12.31 17:53 28283920 My Final Oscar Predictions of 2023
Best Picture - Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- The Holdovers
- American Fiction
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: The Color Purple, May December, All of Us Strangers
I officially have put Barbie as my new frontrunner. Oppenheimer could absolutely still win but as of right now I’ve just got a feeling about Barbie. Globe and CCA nomination leader (the latter of which was 18 nominations) is just hard to deny and I still feel very confident that it’s winning SAG ensemble. I moved Poor Things down several spots after seeing it, there is absolutely no chance it is winning best picture. It’ll get nominated of course, but the 7 films above it would all be picked to win before it.
Best Director - Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
- Martin Scorsese (KOTFM)
- Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
- Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
- Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Alts: Bradley Cooper, Justine Treit
Nolan is locked as we all know. I actually think Yorgos might miss but I just don’t know who to replace him with so I’ll leave him for now.
Best Actor - Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
- Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
- Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
- Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Alts: Leonardo DiCaprio, Colman Domingo
I still think Cooper will win but I’m not as confident as I was the last time I made my prediction post. Cillian still has a ton of passion and that’s hard to deny. I’m happy with either winning but I think I still lean Cooper for now because of the type of performance they typically award. I still think there will be a shocking snub (Leo) and Scott gets in as the passion pick.
Best Actress - Lily Gladstone (KOTFM
- Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
- Emma Stone (Poor Things)
- Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
- Margot Robbie (Barbie)
Alts: Greta Lee, Fantasia Barrino, Natalie Portman
Still have Lily in first and don’t see that changing any time soon. I put Mulligan in second and I think she is more win competitive than people will admit (she’s absolutely a lock for a nomination despite this sub claiming she isn’t). I don’t buy Stone winning a second Oscar especially after seeing it (she was good but I don’t think she can pass the other two this season). I’m keeping Robbie for now but she is vulnerable for any of the other 3.
Best Supporting Actor - Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
- Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
- Charles Melton (May December)
- Robert De Niro (KOTFM)
- Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Alts: Sterling K. Brown
No changes here. Still a 2 horse race but I think Gosling is taking 3/4 precursors just like Quan last year (so he’ll lose BAFTA to RDJ), so that’ll elevate him towards the Oscars. Willem Dafoe is not getting nominated, I feel very confident about that now after seeing it because he’s there for like 5 minutes and doesn’t do anything.
Best Supporting Actress - Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
- Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
- Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
- Jodie Foster (Nyad)
- America Ferrera (Barbie)
Alts: Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike, Rachel McAdams
Best Original Screenplay - Barbie
- Past Lives
- The Holdovers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- May December
Alts: Maestro
Best Adapted Screenplay - American Fiction
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- All of Us Strangers
Moved down Poor Things, absolutely is not winning this. The screenplay is the worst aspect of the film.
Best Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Saltburn
Best Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- The Color Purple
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Priscilla
Best Editing - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barbie
- American Fiction
- The Holdovers
Best Makeup/Hairstyling - Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Golda
Best Production Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
Best Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- The Zone of Interest
Best Original Song - I’m Just Ken (Barbie)
- What Was I Made For? (Barbie)
- Road to Freedom (Rustin)
- The Fire Inside (Flamin’ Hot)
- It Never Went Away (American Symphony)
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- Maestro
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- The Killer
Best Visual Effects - Godzilla Minus One
- The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1
Best Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Wish
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2023.12.30 14:50 WumpaRJ My Predictions - December
I haven't yet put any full predictions yet as I'm sure I'm wrong about a lot of things lol but it's December so I figured I'd throw them out there. Lots I'm confident about, a few things I'm not, but it's all a bit of fun. Also I know it's silly to leave out Diane Warren in song but with her having an honourary award now and with such strong competition from films like The Colour Purple, maybe this time she'll miss...but I'll take the L on that one.
Also I haven't done the shorts here because I'm terrible at predicting them and tend to just go for the most popular ones on Goldderby.
Best Picture: - Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- The Holdovers
- American Fiction
- Maestro
- Past Lives
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: May December, The Colour Purple
Best Director: - Christopher Nolan
- Martin Scorsese
- Yorgos Lanthimos
- Greta Gerwig
- Jonathan Glazer
Alts: Justine Triet, Celine Song, Bradley Cooper
Best Actor - Bradley Cooper
- Cillian Murphy
- Paul Giamatti
- Leonardo Dicaprio
- Jeffrey Wright
Alts: Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott
Best Actress - Emma Stone
- Lily Gladstone
- Carey Mulligan
- Sandra Hüller
- Natalie Portman
Alts: Greta Lee, Margot Robbie, Fantasia Barrino
Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr.
- Ryan Gosling
- Mark Ruffalo
- Robert De Niro
- Charles Melton
Alts: Willem Dafoe (This to me seems like one of the easiest categories to predict but who knows what could happen)
Best Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph
- Danielle Brooks
- Emily Blunt
- Julianne Moore
- Penelope Cruz
Alts: Taraji P Henson, Jodie Foster, Rachel McAdams
Best Original Screenplay - Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Past Lives
- Anatomy of a Fall
- May December
Alts: Maestro, Air
Best Adapted Screenplay - Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- American Fiction
- All of Us Strangers
Alts: The Zone of Interest
Best Cinematography - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Maestro
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Saltburn, The Colour Purple
Best Costume Design - Barbie
- Poor Things
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Colour Purple
- Napoleon
Alts: Priscilla, Wonka
Best Film Editing - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
Alts: The Holdovers, Maestro
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Maestro
- Poor Things
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Beau is Afraid
Alts: Golda, Society of the Snow
Best Production Design: - Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Napoleon
Alts: The Colour Purple, Maestro, Saltburn
Best Original Score - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Zone of Interest
Alts: Elemental, The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones
Best Original Song - What Was I Made For? (Barbie)
- I'm Just Ken (Barbie)
- Road to Freedom (Rustin)
- It Never Went Away (American Symphony)
- Keep It Movin' (The Colour Purple)
Alts: The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot), Quiet Eyes (Past Lives) Am I Dreaming? (Spider-Man)
Best Sound - Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Zone of Interest
- Maestro
- Ferrari
Alts: The Killer, The Creator
Best Visual Effects - The Creator
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Poor Things
- Godzilla Minus One
Alts: Society of the Snow, Indiana Jones
Best Animated Feature - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- The Boy and the Heron
- Elemental
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Alts: Nimona, The Peasants, Suzume
Best Documentary Feature - American Symphony
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Beyond Utopia
- Four Daughters
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Alts: Still, The Eternal Memory
Best International Feature - The Zone of Interest
- Society of the Snow
- The Taste of Things
- Fallen Leaves
- Perfect Days
Alts: 20 Days in Mariupol, The Teacher's Lounge
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