2023.09.07 01:02 gockstar Learn more about AGP and AAP! (and spread the knowledge further)
2023.04.06 16:02 ASICmachine Is Samuel Benner's Theory pointing us to the next Bull Run (x-post from /r/Cryptocurrency)
submitted by ASICmachine to CryptoCurrencyClassic [link] [comments] |
2023.04.06 15:51 Zealousideal-War6206 Is Samuel Benner's Theory pointing us to the next Bull Run
This Analysis is amazingly accurate. Made in 1875 by samuel Benner shows periods of panic , good time to sell assets and good times to buy. submitted by Zealousideal-War6206 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments] If you look at the Top row it actually predicted the great depression, WW2, Dot com bubble and the Covid crash which we recently went through. Kind of Mind blowing. Currently we are in a period of hard times and lowering asset prices and indicates a good time to buy assets soon. credit: ProblemSnipper Who Is Samuel Benner? First he wasn't an economist but a famer bankrupt by 1873 crisis. He tried to work out the causes of market fluctuations. He came across a large degree of cyclicality and published it in his 1875 "BENNER PROPHECIES" which included an 11 years cycle in corn and pig prices, with peaks alternating every 5 to 6 years. Cotton prices cycle peaked every 11 years . A 27 years cycle in pig iron prices dropped every 11, 9, 7 years and peaked of the order of 8,9,10 years. |
2023.03.22 17:09 Frequent-Ebb6310 Benner Cycle Theory: Can Pigs, Corn & Natural Cycles Predict Financial Market Movements?
submitted by Frequent-Ebb6310 to stockanalysis [link] [comments]
2023.03.22 15:47 Frequent-Ebb6310 Benner Cycle Theory: Can Pigs, Corn & Natural Cycles Predict Financial Market Movements?
submitted by Frequent-Ebb6310 to StockMarket [link] [comments] |
2022.09.27 21:45 avocadotoast996 Have y’all ever literally been able to “feel” yourself increasing in competency as a nurse? Like in Benner’s theory - moving from competent to proficient to expert?
2022.07.17 11:31 agentfitzsimmons Theories and wishes for Season 5
2022.07.14 05:37 MysteriousGarden4962 Henry is Janes Father?! (First theory)
2022.06.25 07:22 GodandJesusSave Hidden Messages in the Bible Pt. 3
2022.06.25 07:11 GodandJesusSave Hidden Messages in the Bible Pt 2
2022.06.25 07:00 GodandJesusSave Hidden Messages in the Bible Part 1
2022.01.21 10:59 Visual-Shape-7176 [Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? US market crash every 7 years?
submitted by Visual-Shape-7176 to StockMarket [link] [comments] Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) https://preview.redd.it/n2ztf65vk0d81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=77fbbf8a587ff21163496364dbdce5d991fa2dc4 If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery . For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. https://preview.redd.it/54k4o1yvk0d81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fff4f37895ba53272c0f69b48759a5e4f50bbde Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. https://preview.redd.it/36gzwlkwk0d81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d39b1edccdb868c57d64b6c2e92b3974c44a6da Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver , which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks. |
2022.01.21 06:28 Visual-Shape-7176 [Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? US market crash every 7 years?
Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. submitted by Visual-Shape-7176 to StockMarket [link] [comments] Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) https://preview.redd.it/ltx0y70j8zc81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=008c2bb2b4d4ea4c232b6426afcba964f6b24c12 If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery . For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. https://preview.redd.it/ivrv8nuj8zc81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=65213450260697dbcde9cebbba1419f9786eb393 snapshot Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. https://preview.redd.it/jys6f1lk8zc81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7f4dcdd6b37fb953f5ad0438caa2dfd6e432a9e snapshot Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver , which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks. |
2022.01.21 06:22 Visual-Shape-7176 [Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? US market crash every 7 years?
Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. submitted by Visual-Shape-7176 to options [link] [comments] Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) https://preview.redd.it/8ie2h2rbi0d81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0fff6dc28584c5b11364d757b76c6e4c0cd85d6 If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery . For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. https://preview.redd.it/qn4m3kkci0d81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=200d37e7b9066e7648d0c6e8f9f58063da6cbbde Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. https://preview.redd.it/zhl9rk9di0d81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=d30b26fcced3baa155fd85959905ae48bd111e41 Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver , which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks. |
2022.01.11 08:47 Visual-Shape-7176 [Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market?
Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. submitted by Visual-Shape-7176 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) https://preview.redd.it/o10zgsw1k0b81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0c5e0d9e44a0818086962a80f89f895df3dbc30 If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery . For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. https://preview.redd.it/hmsot6y2k0b81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=162de78968ba9ad0ce0e34b7498b9d768d28452f snapshot Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. https://preview.redd.it/z3mancp4k0b81.png?width=1627&format=png&auto=webp&s=d82c10bc7729b5c15dc30c3b91469fb96fec2c41 snapshot Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver , which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks. |
2021.12.17 04:05 thinkingstranger December 15, 2921
2021.12.11 16:11 textbooks6 Google Drive eTextbooks release thread (part-56)!+ Accepting requests every day
17235.People CMM, The: A Framework for Human Capital Management (paperback) 2nd edition Bill Curtis, William E. Hefley, 17236.People CMM, The: A Framework for Human Capital Management (paperback) 2nd edition Bill Curtis, William E. Hefley, 17237.Everyday Use 2nd edition Hephzibah C. Roskelly, David A. Jolliffe 17238.Even the Rat Was White: A Historical View of Psychology (Allyn & Bacon Classics Edition) 2nd edition Robert V. Guthrie 17239.Advanced Semiconductor Fundamentals 2nd edition Robert F. Pierret 17240.Organizational Learning II: Theory, Method, and Practice 2nd edition Chris Argyris, David A. 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Wheeler 17395.Elements of Parliamentary Debate: A Guide to Public Argument, The 1st edition Trischa Knapp, Lawrence Galizio 17396.History of Western Philosophy 1st edition James Jordan 17397.Fitzgerald's: The Great Gatsby 1st edition 17398.Hazardous Materials for First Responders 5th edition 17399.HVAC Linc C2 Volume 2 Trainee Guide 1st edition 17400.HVAC Linc B2 Trainee Guide 1st edition 17401.HVAC Linc C2 Volume 1 Trainee Guide 1st edition 17402.ServSafe Manager, Revised with ServSafe Exam Answer Sheet 6th edition 17403.ServSave Chinese Essentials 5e Update Edition with Answer Sheet 1st edition 17404.ServSafe Essentials Korean 5e Update Edition with Answer Sheet, ServSafe Essentials with AnswerSheet Update with 2009 FDA Food Code 1st edition 17405.Learning Microsoft Office Deluxe 6 year coursesmart ebook package 1st edition 17406.SNMP, SNMPv2, SNMPv3, and RMON 1 and 2 (paperback) 1st edition William Stallings 17407.Essentials of Fire Fighting 7th edition 17408.The Neighborhood 3rd edition 17409.Fire Inspection and Code Enforcement 8th edition 17410.From ASICs to SOCs: A Practical Approach 1st edition Farzad Nekoogar, Faranak Nekoogar 17411.Tennessee Plumbing Level 1 Trainee Guide 4th edition 17412.Carpentry Fundamentals Level 1 Trainee Guide, Looseleaf 4th edition 17413.C++ How to Program 10th edition Paul Deitel, Harvey M. Deitel 17414.CCNA Cyber Ops (SECFND #210-250 and SECOPS #210-255) Official Cert Guide Library 1st edition Omar Santos, Joseph Muniz, 17415.DB2 Developer's Guide: A Solutions-Oriented Approach to Learning the Foundation and Capabilities of DB2 for z/OS 6th edition Craig S. Mullins 17416.Algorithms 4th edition Robert Sedgewick, Kevin Wayne 17417.Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians 3rd edition Charles D. Kirkpatrick, Julie R. 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Knuth, 17425.Organizational Behavior: Developing Skills for Managers 1st edition Eric Lamm, Jennifer Tosti-Kharas 17426.Personal Finance Experience 1st edition Bill Pratt, Mark Weitzel, 17427.Revel for InMacro 1st edition Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O'Brien 17428.Revel for InMacro 1st edition Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O'Brien 17429.Revel for InMicro 1st edition Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O'Brien 17430.InMacro 1st edition Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O'Brien 17431.CompTIA Network+ N10-007 Cert Guide, Deluxe Edition 1st edition Anthony J. Sequeira, Michael D. Taylor 17432.Definitive Guide to Warehousing, The: Managing the Storage and Handling of Materials and Products in the Supply Chain 1st edition Scott B. Keller, Brian C. Keller 17433.Definitive Guide to Warehousing, The: Managing the Storage and Handling of Materials and Products in the Supply Chain 1st edition Scott B. Keller, Brian C. Keller 17434.Service Management: An Integrated Approach to Supply Chain Management and Operations (Paperback) 1st edition Cengiz Haksever, Barry Render 17435.Comprehensive Guide to Mergers & Acquisitions, A: Managing the Critical Success Factors Across Every Stage of the M&A Process (Paperback) 1st edition Yaakov Weber, Shlomo Tarba, 17436.Clegg:FT Briefing Sustainable_p 1st edition Brian Clegg 17437.MyLab Nursing for the Practical/Vocational Nurse (text + access code) 1st edition Elaine Polan, Daphne Taylor 17438.Managing Information Security Risks: The OCTAVE (SM) Approach 1st edition Christopher Alberts, Audrey Dorofee 17439.Routing TCP/IP, Volume 1 2nd edition Jeff Doyle, Jennifer DeHaven Carroll 17440.Introduction to Wireless Digital Communication: A Signal Processing Perspective 1st edition Robert W. Heath 17441.LabVIEW for Electric Circuits, Machines, Drives, and Laboratories 1st edition Nesimi Ertugrul 17442.Process Quality 2nd edition 17443.Electrical Level 1 10th edition 17444.Power Generation I & C Maintenance Technician Level 1 TG 1st edition 17445.American Government: Readings and Cases 19th edition Peter Woll 17446.Understanding Public Policy, Books a la Carte 15th edition Thomas R. Dye 17447.College Accounting Chapters 1-12 with Study Guide and Working Papers 14th edition Jeffrey Slater, Mike Deschamps 17448.College Accounting Chapters 1-12 with Study Guide and Working Papers, Student Value Edition 14th edition Jeffrey Slater, Mike Deschamps 17449.Genetics Laboratory Investigations 14th edition Thomas Mertens, Robert L. Hammersmith 17450.Conscious Reader, The 12th edition Caroline F. Shrodes, Michael F. Shugrue, 17451.Case Studies in Abnormal Behavior 9th edition Robert G. Meyer, Christopher M. Weaver 17452.Philosophical Foundations of Education 9th edition Howard A. Ozmon 17453.Writing Well, Longman Classics Edition 9th edition Donald Hall, Sven P. Birkerts 17454.Across Cultures: A Reader for Writers 8th edition Sheena Gillespie, Robert Becker 17455.Helping Relationship, The: Process and Skills 8th edition Lawrence M. Brammer, Ginger MacDonald 17456.Macionis/Parrillo-Cities and Urban Life,7/e 7th edition 17457.Course Design: A Guide to Curriculum Development for Teachers 7th edition George J. Posner, Alan N. Rudnitsky 17458.Conversación y controversia: Tópicos de hoy y de siempre 6th edition Nino R. Iorillo, Andres C. Diaz 17459.Ecology: The Experimental Analysis of Distribution and Abundance 6th edition Charles J. Krebs 17460.Basics of Web Design: HTML5 & CSS 5th edition Terry Felke-Morris 17461.Engineering with Excel 5th edition Ronald W Larsen 17462.MATLAB for Engineers 5th edition Holly Moore 17463.Strategies for Theory Construction in Nursing 5th edition Lorraine Olszewski Walker, Kay Coalson Avant 17464.Scott, Foresman Writer, The 5th edition John J. Ruszkiewicz, Daniel E. Seward, 17465.Creative Writer's Handbook 5th edition Philip K. Jason, Allan B. Lefcowitz 17466.Linguistics for Non-Linguists: A Primer with Exercises 5th edition Frank Parker, Kathryn Riley 17467.Case Studies in Business, Society, and Ethics 5th edition Tom L. Beauchamp 17468.Arts Integration: Teaching Subject Matter through the Arts in Multicultural Settings 4th edition Merryl Goldberg 17469.Hotel Operations Management 3rd edition David K. Hayes, Jack D. Ninemeier, 17470.Young Adult Literature: Exploration, Evaluation, and Appreciation 3rd edition Katherine T. Bucher, KaaVonia M Hinton 17471.Consider Ethics: Theory, Readings, and Contemporary Issues 3rd edition Bruce N. Waller 17472.Strategy and the Business Landscape 3rd edition Pankaj E. Ghemawat 17473.Administrators Solving the Problems of Practice: Decision-Making Concepts, Cases, and Consequences 3rd edition Wayne Kolter Hoy, C John Tarter 17474.Concise Guide to Technical Communication, A 3rd edition Laura J. Gurak, John M. Lannon 17475.Pleasures of Children's Literature, The 3rd edition Perry Nodelman, Mavis Reimer 17476.L'Essentiel de la grammaire française 3rd edition LeonFranco Hoffmann, Jean Marie Schultz 17477.Modelos: An Integrated Approach for Proficiency in Spanish 2nd edition Agnes L. Dimitriou, Frances M. Sweeney, 17478.Leadership, Ethics and Policing: Challenges for the 21st Century 2nd edition P J. Ortmeier, Edwin Meese 17479.Statistics and Data Analysis for Nursing Research 2nd edition Denise F. Polit 17480.To the Point 2nd edition Gilbert H. Muller, Harvey S. Wiener 17481.Bonne Continuation: Approfondissement à l'écrit et à l'oral 2nd edition Nina Furry, Hannelore Jarausch 17482.Minerals in Thin Section 2nd edition Dexter Perkins, Kevin R. Henke 17483.Elements of ML Programming, ML97 Edition 2nd edition Jeffrey D. Ullman 17484.Introduction to JavaScript Programming The 'Nothing but a Browser' Approach 1st edition Eric Roberts 17485.Socrates Comes to Wall Street 1st edition Thomas I. White 17486.Traffic Enforcement and Crash Investigation 1st edition Ross Olmos 17487.Social Work and Health Care: Policy, Practice, and Professionalism 1st edition Joan M. Borst 17488.Research Essentials: Foundations for Evidence-Based Practice 1st edition Susan L. Norwood 17489.Research Primer for Communication Sciences and Disorders, A 1st edition Timothy Meline 17490.Building ASL Interpreting and Translation Skills: Narratives for Practice (with DVD) 1st edition Nanci A. Scheetz 17491.Cultural Competence in Process and Practice: Building Bridges 1st edition Juliet C. Rothman, Juliet C. Rothman 17492.Writing for the Government 1st edition Libby Allison, Miriam F. Williams 17493.Introduction to Programming in Java: An Interdisciplinary Approach 1st edition Robert Sedgewick, Kevin Wayne 17494.Investigating High-Tech Crime 1st edition Michael Knetzger, Jeremy Muraski 17495.Math Skills for Allied Health Careers 1st edition Daniel L. Timmons, Catherine W. Johnson 17496.Teaching Elementary Physical Education: Strategies for the Classroom Teacher 1st edition Peter Hastie, Ellen Martin 17497.Ecology on Campus 1st edition Robert Kingsolver 17498.Practical Introduction to Literary Study, A 1st edition James S. Brown, Scott D. Yarbrough 17499.Writing in the Health Professions 1st edition Barbara A Heifferon 17500.In a Field of Words: A Creative Writing Text 1st edition Sybil Estess, Janet McCann 17501.C++ for Java Programmers 1st edition Mark A. Weiss 17502.Artists, Critics, Context: Readings in and Around American Art since 1945 1st edition Paul F. Fabozzi 17503.Doing and Being: Selected Readings in Moral Philosophy 1st edition Joram Haber 17504.Primacy of Caring, The: Stress and Coping in Health and Illness 1st edition Patricia Benner 17505.Calculus with Analytic Geometry 7th edition Dale Varberg, Edwin J. Purcell 17506.Tennessee Electrical Level 1 Trainee Guide 8th edition https://preview.redd.it/w26jaoj8jx481.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=366958c06f3c40a8ecd5d8b4d15093a6e12ce60c |
2021.12.04 19:16 textbooks6 Google Drive eTextbooks release thread (part-9)!+ Accepting requests every day
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2021.08.24 04:16 AffectionateAd6068 More misappropriation of terms: NP ‘Residency’ at the Vegas VA! One goal: Transition from entry-level novice to advanced beginner APRN, levels defined by Benner’s “Novice to Expert” theory (1984). Is that a thing? Heaven help our Veterans!
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2021.08.03 16:47 ReviewEquivalent1266 Tuesday's Anti-Conservative Headlines: The media just can't quit President Trump.
2021.06.16 07:32 Megaseelanti The Rachel Maddow Show (June 15, 2021)
2021.05.13 20:55 beleafinyoself 1-year new grad nurse residency at Orlando VA hospital