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For the following:
Best Picture
All We Imagine As Light (Janus Films)
Anora (NEON)
Blitz (Apple)
Conclave or Nosferatu (Focus)
Dune Part 2 or Furiosa (Warner Bros)
Emmanuelle, The End or The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)
Nickel Boys (Amazon-MGM/Orion)
Queer (TBA)
A Real Pain (Searchlight)
Sing Sing (A24)
ALT: I'm Still Here (SPC), Maria (TBC), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Nightbitch (Searchlight)
Best Director
Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine As Light
Sean Baker - Anora
Steve McQueen - Blitz
Denis Villeneuve - Dune Part 2
Luca Guadagnino - Queer
ALT: Mohammad Rasoulof - The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Walter Salles - I'm Still Here, Joshua Oppenheimer - The End, Audrey Diwan - Emmanuelle, Edward Berger - Conclave, RaMell Moss - Nickel Boys
Best Actress
Amy Adams - Nightbitch
Angelina Jolie - Maria
Mikey Madison - Anora
Saoirse Ronan - Blitz
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
ALT: Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez, Florence Pugh - We Live in Time, Lady Gaga - Joker: Foile a Deux, Zendaya - Challengers, Anya Taylor-Joy - Furiosa, Tilda Swinton - The End, Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths, Noemie Merlant - Emmanuelle, Kani Kusruti and Divya Prabha - All We Imagine As Light
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Burke - Blitz
Joan Chen - Didi
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys
Lesley Manville - Queer
Fernanda Montenegro - I'm Still Here
ALT: Emily Watson - Small Things Like These, Selena Gomez/Adriana Paz/Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez, Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson, Judy Greer - Flint Strong, Toni Collette - Juror No 2, Naomi Watts - Emmanuelle
Best Adapted Screenplay
Peter Straughan - Conclave (based on the novel by Robert Harris)
Jon Sphaits and Denis Villeneuve - Dune Part 2 (based on Dune by Frank Herbert)
Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Moss - The Nickel Boys (based on the novel by Colson Whitehead)
Marielle Heller - Nightbitch (based on the novel by Rachel Yoder)
Justin Kuritzkes - Queer (based on the novel by William S Burroughs)
ALT: Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega - I'm Still Here (based on Ainda Estou Aqui by Marcelo Rubens Paiva), Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams - The Piano Lesson (based on the play by August Wilson), Stephen Cooney and Duke Johnson - The Actor (based on the novel Memory by Donald E Westlake), Audrey Diwan and Rebecca Zlotowski - Emmanuelle (based on the novel by Marayat Rollet-Andriane/Emmanuelle Arsan), Meg LeFauve - Inside Out 2 (based on characters created by LeFauve, Josh Cooley and Pete Docter)
Best International Film
All We Imagine As Light (India, Janus Films)
Dying (Germany, TBA)
Emilia Perez (France, Netflix)
I'm Still Here (Brazil, SPC)
No Other Land (Palestine, TBA)
ALT: Dahomey (Senegal, MUBI), Universal Language (Canada, Oscilloscope), Sauvages! (Switzerland, TBA), Crossing (Sweden, MUBI), Flow (Latvia, Janus Films), Pedro Paramo (Mexico, Netflix), The Girl with the Needle (Denmark, MUBI), The Devil's Bath (Austria, Shudder), Chocobar (Argentina, TBA) - if released this year

Her face her changed so much over the years, is it surgery?

Since due to the effect of the twin strikes last year, it's quite looking to be an open season this year.
So what are the favourites and priorities for the studios and indies in the awards season race to the Oscars next year.
Searchlight
(1) Nightbitch, (2) A Real Pain, (3) Kinds of Kindness
Focus Features
(1) Nosferatu, (2) Conclave
Warner Bros.
(1) Juror #2, (2) Joker: Folie à Deux [Lady Gaga], (3) SupeMan: The Christopher Reeve Story
Amazon MGM
(1) The Fire Inside, (2) Nickel Boys
Paramount
(1) Gladiator II, (2) Better Man
A24
(1) The Smashing Machine [Dwayne Johnson], (2) Sing Sing
Netflix
(1) Emilia Perez [Selena Gomez], (2) The Piano Lesson, (3) His Three Daughters, (4) Hit Man
Sony
(?) Kraven the Hunter, (1) Here
Lionsgate
(?) Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Apple
Blitz
Neon
Anora
Mubi
(1) The Substance, (2) Bird
Bleecker Street
(1) Hard Truths, (2) Rumours
Roadside Attractions
Exhibiting Forgiveness
SPC
The Room Next Door

Oscar season is finally here.
Ignore the 2025 after June in my title, not sure how I messed that up.
I'm making these predictions under the assumption that Mother Mary, The Smashing Machine, The Room Next Door, Mickey 17, and Long Day's Journey into Night are all 2025 releases
In bold means I've seen it.

1. Anora
2. Queer
3. Nightbitch
4. Sing Sing
5. Dune: Part Two
6. Joker: Folie a Deux
7. Conclave
8. Blitz
9. I'm Still Here
10. Emilia Perez
11. Gladiator II
12. Nickel Boys
13. The Piano Lesson
14. A Real Pain
15. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
16. Juror No. 2
17. Challengers
18. All We Imagine as Light
19. Wicked
20. Hard Truths
21. Hedda
22. Nosferatu
23. Here

I still have Anora at 1. When I picked Anora as my BP frontrunner back in March I fully expected another Boy and the Heron situation where my prediction falls flat on its ass, but surpirse, It looks like Anora could actually win best picture! So I will be here all year
Emmanuel has gone from my number 2 to off my longlists completely. I have also removed Megalopolis from my lineup for obvious reasons, and Juror No. 2 has dropped from 10 to 15.
I have Queer at 2 now as I think this is going to be Guadagnino's most acclaimed film yet and I'm expecting Netflix to pick it up for a big campaign.
Last month I had Nightbitch somewhere after 40 in my longlist but today I have it at 3. Searchlight + December release + buzzy actress in transformative role. I think this will be the weirdo oscar bait of the year.
I'm going in on Walter Salles' I'm Still Here since SPC picked it up and I believe Fremaux was talking about it as a potential Palme winner. I could easily see Salles picking up industry support.
I’m not sure what to do with Emilia Perez because it could go either way. As crowd pleasing as it is the critics are a little too divided for me to feel comfortable predicting it, but nothing else makes sense to put in at 10.
Best Director

1. Luca Guadagnino - Queer
2. Marielle Heller - Nightbitch
3. Steve McQueen - Blitz
4. Sean Baker - Anora
5. Walter Salles - I'm Still Here
6. Todd Phillips - Joker: Folie a Deux
7. Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
8. Edward Berger - Conclave
9. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
10. Greg Kwedar - Sing Sing
11. Mohammad Rasoulof - The Seed of the Sacred Fig
12. Robert Eggers - Nosferatu
13. Clint Eastwood - Juror No. 2
14. Ridley Scott - Gladiator II

Best Actress

1. Amy Adams - Nightbitch
2. Lady Gaga - Joker: Folie a Deux
3. Mikey Madison - Anora
4. Fernanda Montenegro - I'm Still Here
5. Angelina Jolie - Maria
6. Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
7. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
8. Tessa Thompson - Hedda
9. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
11. Zendaya - Challengers

Best Actor

1. Daniel Craig - Queer
2. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
4. Paul Mescal - Gladiator II
5. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker: Folie a Deux
6. Nicholas Hoult - Juror No. 2
7. John David Washington - The Piano Lesson
8. Jesse Plemons - Kinds of Kindness
9. Tom Hanks - Here

I kinda think Craig has this in the bag. I don't see any competition for him besides maybe Domingo but even then I do not think Domingo has a chance at a win. I keep seeing people say Domingo has a "narrative" but what is it? That you like him? And there is no way voters watch a movie about incarcerated inmates getting a second chance and choose to award the film via its leading A list actor. If Sing Sing is winning an acting award itll have to be Macklin.
Best Supporting Actress

1. Toni Collette - Juror No. 2
2. Saoirse Ronan - Blitz
3. Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson
4. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys
5. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
6. Connie Nielson - Gladiator II
7. Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez
8. Lesley Manville - Queer
9. Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
10. Natasha Lyonne - His Three Daughters
11. Ariana Grande - Wicked

I think Saldana's nomination will be a surprise nominations morning, kinda like Stanfield a couple years ago.
Best Supporting Actor

1. Stanley Tucci - Conclave
2. Samuel L Jackson - The Piano Lesson
3. Clarence Macklin - Sing Sing
4. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
5. Drew Starkey - Queer
6. Harris Dickinson - Blitz
7. Denzel Washington - Gladiator II
8. Mark Eydelshteyn - Anora

Best Original Screenplay

1. Anora
2. Blitz
3. Emilia Perez
4. A Real Pain
5. Challengers
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
7. Juror No. 2
8. Kinds of Kindness
9. Maria
10. Hard Truths

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nightbitch
2. Sing Sing
3. Queer
4. I'm Still Here
5. Conclave
6. Nickel Boys
7. Dune: Part Two
8. Hedda
9. The Piano Lesson
10. Joker: Folie a Deux

Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot
2. Inside Out 2
3. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
4. Moana 2
5. Flow
6. Orion and the Dark
7. Kung Fu Panda 4

Cinematography

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie a Deux
3. Nosferatu
4. Anora
5. Queer
6. Blitz
7. Maria
8. Conclave
9. Emilia Perez

Editing

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Queer
3. Anora
4. Nightbitch
5. Conclave
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Joker: Folie a Deux
8. Blitz
9. Sing Sing
10. Challengers
11. Emilia Perez

Production Design

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie a Deux
3. Gladiator II
4. Blitz
5. Wicked
6. Furiosa
7. Maria
8. Emilia Perez
9. Nosferatu

Costume Design

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. Joker: Folie a Deux
4. Gladiator II
5. Furiosa
6. Blitz
7. Maria
8. Emilia Perez
9. Nosferatu

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Furiosa
3. Joker: Folie a Deux
4. Nosferatu
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
6. Wicked
7. A Different Man
8. Sasquatch Sunset
9. The Substance

Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Deadpool & Wolverine
5. Mufasa: The Lion King
6. Gladiator II
7. Wicked
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
9. Twisters

Best Sound

1. Dune Part Two
2. Furiosa
3. Joker: Folie a Deux
4. Gladiator II
5. Blitz
6. Wicked
7. Challengers
8. The Substance
9. Civil War
10. Twisters
11. Emilia Perez
12. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
13. A Quiet Place Day One

Best Score

1. Queer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Nosferatu
5. Joker: Folie a Deux
6. Blitz
7. Gladiator II
8. Challengers
9. Maria

For those you don't know about it yet, the idea is to digitally boycott celebrities who haven't spoken out about the crisis in Gaza, and it's gaining serious momentum. But I can't help but wonder, is this really the right approach?
I'm concerned about the underlying message here. Are we forcing people to support a cause or make donations? It feels like we're walking a fine line between raising awareness and compelling speech. Yes, you may want more voices to amplify the message, but should support come from genuine concern rather than fear of backlash?
For reference: https://www.hindustantimes.com/entertainment/hollywood/blockout-2024-movement-explained-why-are-a-list-celebrities-losing-followers-amid-met-gala-outrage-101715431357457.html
https://www.globalvillagespace.com/selena-gomez-loses-a-million-followers-amidst-blackout-movement/

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