How to set up an ice maker

Digital Projector Help / Purchase Advice & News

2012.03.11 19:20 ajsmithjr Digital Projector Help / Purchase Advice & News

The place to search for projectors, ask for Buying Help or Setup Help, News about upcoming releases, and technological advancements. Rules: #1 No racism. CCC in this sub stands for Cheap but Can afford Crap, any illusion to saying CCC to disparage another community or race will result in a ban from here on out. #2 All projector talk is welcome here even the cheap stuff. But like don’t post or push spammy products. Will result in a ban from here on out. #3 Just be cool man
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2019.01.26 00:43 talk-fast Kurtistown

FOLKS! 👏 Welcome to the Kurtis Conner subreddit! Become a citizen of Kurtistown and join the community :)
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2012.12.12 20:06 howtohockeydotcom Where hockey players come to share tips, advice, highlights or just to rant

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2024.05.29 01:26 enchantedmarjorie Crush got a girlfriend and now we’re not even friends?

I might be overthinking and going a little crazy but I want a second opinion.
So I (f29) have a crush on a guy at work (m35). It started about 8 weeks ago. Before then we were work friends, but about 8 weeks ago we went to a company event and spent the whole time talking about not work things. I’ve always thought he was cute, but after this outside of work bonding time I suddenly had a huge crush. At the time he was single and he knew I was too. After this event, we started mutually flirting and talking basically whenever we could. It was really fun.
I knew he was dating around. We had talked about it and we both had said we were on the market and how we hated the apps. In fact, on one of our hang outs he ended up being an hour late to a date because we got caught up talking and didn’t realize what time it was.
Since the event where we hit it off, we had been flirting a lot, until about 2 week ago when he suddenly got a girlfriend. It was very sudden, like flirting with me on Monday to icing me out on Wednesday because he was taken, sudden.
I was a little disappointed when he told me he got a girlfriend, but also like, I’m a reasonable person. I knew dating someone at work would be a shit show so I knew going into the flirtation it probably wouldn’t work out. I knew he was actively dating and looking for a partner so him becoming not single was a strong possibility. In our flirting he got flustered a few times and I watched him like try to talk himself out of a crush on me by citing our age difference (which I don’t see as a big deal but he brought it up one time over drinks) and our workplace. Also this crush was only in motion for about 6 weeks before this happened, so it wasn’t like I was pining for years. I’m honestly not upset about him getting serious with someone else, good for him.
But, ever since he got a girlfriend, he is now actively avoiding me. I stopped flirting the moment he told me he was taken because I want to respect his relationship. But now I like can’t even talk to him about anything without him getting flustered and ending the conversation. What prompted this post was me leaning over to crack a joke about our boss under my breath and he basically jumped out of his skin to get away from me. In the past he would have like leaned in simultaneously to hear what I was saying and then laughed. And we weren’t that close, not touching, very professionally distanced, I literally just leaned. But this isn’t the only incident. We went from talking every day to basically nothing outside of what is minimally required for work. And even before the flirtation and we ramped up communication, it was more than what is going on now.
We work in a collaborative field and not talking to him is not really an option. So while I am not upset he got a girlfriend, I am a little hurt he is now like taken friendship off the table.
So here is where I’m gonna be delusional. My little lizard brain is saying he likes me still but because he has a girlfriend and has for other reasons in his mind set me as off limits, he’s cutting me out entirely. Do we think that’s the case? Or does he just not value me anymore now that he has a partner?
My office is small. The pool for work friends is shallow. I’m a little bummed he doesn’t want to be friends now, so I think my lizard brain is trying to make me feel better by saying “wow he must like you TOO much.”
submitted by enchantedmarjorie to dating_advice [link] [comments]

2024.05.29 01:18 1toughneighbour Boomer uncle threatened neighborhood kids for standing too close to my house

So the first thing to know is that my house is right in front of the bus stop. So a lot of people stand in front of it during the day. Our dogs go out to the front yard to play and the kids love to pet them and play with them too.
We're on a first name basis with most of the people that wait for the bus.
Anyways, so last week my mom decided to host a party and she requested to use my house since there's more space. I'm in a house in the suburbs.
The party was from 5 till whenever. But Uncle dumbfuck and his wife decided to show up at around 3, said he wanted to beat the traffic.
(We don't live in a busy city like LA or something so wtf was he even talking about? Probably had nothing better to do I guess. 🤷‍♂️)
So as you can imagine everyone was getting ready for the party. Wife and mom were in the kitchen getting the food ready. I had to run a few errands and grab a bunch of stuff from outside.
We sent Uncle Dumbo to the TV but I guess he got bored so he just walked around and eventually he was just standing in the middle of the kitchen getting in everyone's way. At one point he stood in front of a frying pan and put his face real close asking my wife "what are you making in there smells real good" the oil almost splattered onto his face but this dummy was oblivious.
Mom told him to get out of the kitchen and he said "let me help" so we sent him to the front yard to clean up some of the toys and bags and bring them to the garage. Nothing heavy.
I checked on him and he was taking two bags with him. I thought that was going to keep him busy for like 20 minutes at least and went inside to help set up the table or whatever.
Not 5 minutes in we heard loud screaming noises. I ran out to see Uncle dumbfuck going "get tha fuck outta heeya" to teenagers and their grandma who they were probably taking to the city. I knew them.
I went up and asked what's happening. Uncle dumbfuck was livid talking about how they stepped on the grass. They should have stayed on the sidewalk. What a fucking moron. Mom pulled this moron inside and I apologized to the kids, I told them moron has mental issues from old age.
When I go inside, he's still huffing and puffing. I asked him what happened. He starts shouting "if you don't deal with these slurs they'll move in to your yard and take over your house!" He was literally having a full on tantrum.
"Because they stepped on the grass?" 🤔
He erupted into an even more unhinged incohered rant. "You don't know these kind of people! They come here to steal!" He ended it with: "We used to just shoot them!" He was talking about 2 teenagers and their grandma. What a fucking imbecile.
Even the dogs were getting anxious now because this moron wouldn't stop screaming.
Wife went and brought him an ice cold diet coke so he can chill out. This man was literally sweating now because he was so worked up by this.
Ruined the whole vibe honestly. I tried my best to avoid him the rest of the day as did everyone else. He actually tried to bring it up again during the party with a couple of boomer chucklefuck buddies. I just smiled and nodded along then pretended I had to go to the bathroom. No point discussing things with these guys honestly.
One thing for sure: that asshole is never getting invited here ever again. Told my family to cut him off too but I don't know if they will.
Fuck that guy.
submitted by 1toughneighbour to BoomersBeingFools [link] [comments]

2024.05.29 01:04 Purtle [PIL] #1320 5/28/2024

Purtle's Internet Lineup for May 28th, 2024 7:05pm
Pics:
Clips:
Videos
Articles/News/Other
submitted by Purtle to Purtle [link] [comments]

2024.05.29 00:03 ricochetLN (SELLING) Various 4K and HD movies & TV, Dream Scenario, Priscilla, Universal Rewards

I prefer PayPal F&F but also accept Venmo, Cash App, Zelle and Amazon GC.
Assume codes are split where applicable. Redeem only portion as specified. Universal All-Access Rewards can be earned for certain Universal movie redemption. You must have an account in good standing & properly connected to MA to earn points (ref myuniversalrewards.com). Note that Universal Rewards will end soon (Last Day to Earn Pts June 30, Last Day to Redeem Pts July 31st)
MA = Movies Anywhere, GP = Google Play, Vudu is the same as Fandango At Home

Universal Movie Codes (mostly iTunes)

iTunes Code unless otherwise stated. Each title redemption can earn 500 Reward Points /w Universal All-Access Rewards connected to MA. See bottom of page for May Universal Reward Titles.

Individual Movie Codes

Collection/Bundles & TV

May Universal Rewards Titles (MA) - $3 Each (or 2 for $5)
NOTE: You can also earn FREE through Universal All-Access Rewards at 1000 points each.
submitted by ricochetLN to DigitalCodeSELL [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 23:42 Scifiase Caergwynt: A homebrew domain that combines Lovecraftian Deep Ones, dragonflesh grafting, and welsh mythology.

So I've been working on this one for quite some time, running sessions here since November, so I thought I'd finally share with the class. My previous domains have all the highly streamlined into a specific gimmick (or if you're being less generous, one-trick ponies), and I wanted to transition to an episodic style campaign for scheduling and session-planning reasons. So I challenged myself to make something that had a lot of potential in the type of sessions, terrain, and factions. I'm pleased with the result and I have endless fun. Dragonmine dungeons, sea monster hunts, and up to my armpits in murder mysteries (Involving everything from serial killers, forced marriages to sea creatures, finding shipwrecks, and backstreet grafting, and their current conundrum involving medieval compacts and mining rights).
What I have here is the stripped down version, hence the lack of things like a detailed backstory, NPCs, or the factions I'm mentioned. These things all exist, but there's far too much for a random reddit post.

Caergwynt

Domain of cursed bloodlines and stolen flesh
Darklord: Dr James Pugh
Genres: Body horror, cosmic horror
Hallmarks: A cursed piscine populace, dragon-flesh grafting surgery, a seaside town.
Mist Talismans: A preserved dragon’s bladder, A piece of leather with a triple-eye tattoo, a carver’s blade

A thousand years ago the people of Dan-y-Mor bargained with the Deep Ones of Thol’Yth, a bargain that caused their home to sink into the sea and has left a corrupting mark on their bloodline to this day. But times have moved on, and in the seaside tourist town of Caergwynt the people try to throw off the chains of the sea and embrace modernity. Dr James Pugh, master surgeon, alchemist, and prodigal son of Caergwynt, brough home with him the discoveries of Dragon-flesh grafting, and how the power within draconic meat can counteract the curse that afflicts them as they age.

But along with innovations, Pugh has brought twisted ideals of supremacy, callousness, and self-loathing to the town. Behind the pastel painted houses and ice-cream stands, Pugh holds the domain in the grips of his ideology. In Caergwynt both beauty and ugliness are skin deep; horror lies beneath both.

And where are they getting this dragon flesh?

Noteworthy Features

Those familiar with [Domain Name] know these facts:
· The coastal population is cursed by their piscine ancestry. Though they appear human to begin with, they start to warp into fish-like beings as the enter middle-age, until eventually they can’t survive on land.
· Magic and the occult arts aren’t banned in the town, but they pride themselves in their modern thinking, and so both are rare and seen with suspicion. Alchemy is very popular, as is natural philosophy of all kinds, though scientific truth is often clouded in ideological bias.
· Minor surgeries involving dragon flesh is hugely popular in the town, primarily as it staves off the piscine transformation. Draconic virtues such as wealth, independence, and power are idealised, while meekness, poverty, and laziness are seen as the result of oceanic taint.
· The inland parts of the domain are mountainous and sparsely populated, but under the mountains dragons lie hibernating in the hundreds. Through use of industrial quantities of sedatives, mining teams, and the skilled blades of the ‘Carvers’, they remove the flesh of living dragons for sale to surgeons.

Geography and locations

At the heart of the domain lies the town of Caergwynt, for which the domain is named, though it extends well beyond the picturesque town. Coastline stretches to the north and south for 9 miles in each direction. Outside the town much of the coastline is steep cliffs with only occasional cove, until the northern most two miles, which level out into sand dunes and finally to an estuary, the river bisected by the mists.

The domain extends another 13 miles inland to the east, almost immediately rising into rolling mountain ranges worn smooth eons ago by glaciers. Beneath these mountains are rich veins of ore, usually lead, copper, tin, silver, and even gold. Not to mention another, slumbering, treasure. These ridges and valleys are mostly populated by sheep farmers and miners, and their distance from the civilised towns means the old traditions still hold strong. Travellers here are likely to be vexed by the remaining fey spirits, whom they have likely offended by breaking their baffling codes.

Lastly, to the west is 13 miles of sea. Beneath the sea here is the remains of Dan-y-Mor, the lands that were drowned. Legends tell that the dragon Rhodri Efydd drowned these lands to punish the people there for their pact with the Deep Ones, and that it’s the survivors of this event that settled in Caergwynt and established the cursed bloodlines that still dwell there. The ruins are now populated by the Deep Ones, and the seas are treacherous to those who do not pay tribute to them.

Caergwynt town The main settlement and namesake of the domain, Caergwynt town is the seat of James Pugh’s power, and the nexus for his ideas. A rail line connects the town to the wider world through the mists, bringing tourists from far and wide to enjoy its pastel houses, seaside attractions, and healthy sea air. The town has grown incredibly rapidly over the past fifty years, so many of the houses are relatively new, painted brightly, and have plumbing. Wealthier houses often have electricity even, as Pugh idealises technological progress as a means of freeing oneself from the overlords of old.

Along the seafront promenade one can find ice-cream stands, circus acts, and countless sun loungers. Many children paddle in the shallows, under the watchful eyes of the many lifeguards. An impressive pier thrusts out to sea over 600ft, hosting a bar, dancefloor, and bandstand, as well as being decorated by colourful electric lights along its whole length.

On an upward-thrust outcropping of stone overlooking the bay, the ruins of a medieval castle can be found. Though much of the old outer portions are now a pleasant picnic overlook, the ruins themselves act as a façade that conceals the home and workshop of Dr James Pugh, the regal remains cloaking the garish metal construction where Pugh conducts his experiments and surgeries.

Dan-y-Mor Long ago, these lands were cast into the sea for the betrayal of the people here to their own kin: In return for protection against floods, the elders of the town betrothed many of their younger relatives to the Deep Ones. When forced to confront the horror of what they’d done, they refused to repent, and so the dragon Rhodri Efydd flooded the land to try and kill off all those tainted by the deep.

Not only did he fail, but the Deep Ones now occupy the ruins in great numbers, growing their strength and plotting their control over the surface. Led by the high priest Xrilath, ancient human structures have been supplemented by cyclopean temples to unfathomable gods. Here Xrilath experiments in creating mutants for his legions, and plots to spread his insanity to all. His aristocrats constantly feud and war over slaves and territory, and his priests construct monuments to induce storms and curses over the ocean. Unnatural reefs and trenches can come and go under the force of their magic, and shipwrecks are a frequent sight.

To this day, the church bells of Dan-y-Mor can be heard when the sea mists are thick.

Llwyd North along the coastline, as the cliffs finally give way to pebbles and finally a sandy beach, sits the unfortunately named Llwyd. Behind the town lies the only flat terrain of the domain, but it is boggy and brackish and so of little use, without a safe harbour like it’s sibling settlement to nucleate around. Thus, it’s a stretched-out town of a few hundred, composing of only two streets running a mile each in parallel along the beach, with the only high ground occupied by a church and a small railway station.
Like Caergwynt, its populace are doomed to mutate as they age, but away from the most intense of Pugh’s influence, they see themselves as more at peace with their nature. Repulsed by their lack of self-repulsion, Pugh has successfully discredited the town as being run-down and dire, stalling its attempt to draw in tourists as Caergwynt has, despite superficially similar pastel houses and beach attractions. Without cash coming in, most of the town is now stuck in a cycle of dilapidation that makes true Pugh’s slander.
Of the ailing attractions, the most notable it the Abominarium, a fledgling zoo that pivoted to displaying captured cryptids and the occasional escaped carver’s pet when funds for proper zoo animals wasn’t available.

Porthniwl
This town lies at the very south of the domain, a ruined place that was bisected by the mists when they descended and never left. Formerly, it was the template that Caergwynt copied to reinvent itself, but now the ebb and flow of the mists leaves it inhospitable and maddening, populated only by aberrations, Aled Llias-y-mor’s Deep-One splinter faction, and insane pirates. The cultists worship and bargain with otherworldly entities that spawn from the mists, welcoming them as Xrilath’s distant kin.

Cwm Crith
Following the river Crith from its terminus in Caergwynt inland (Or better yet, simply taking the narrow-gauge train with the miners each morning) will eventually lead to Cwm Crith, the upper reaches of the Crith valley. Formerly a loose scattering of shepherds, the valley has become dominated by Pugh’s dragonflesh mines that have poked holes in the mountainside. Leaked poisons, smelting effluent, and the residue of toxic ores has rendered the river a pretty but toxic blue colour, and decimated the agriculture of the valley.
While not the only dragonflesh mining compound in the domain, Cwm Crith is by far the busiest and most profitable. Owned of course by Dr James Pugh, Cwm Crith Mining Company, and its subsidiary the Goldscale Carvers, is an economic powerhouse by the standards of the other businesses in the domain. Along with dragon flesh, the draconic influence that seeps into the rocks has imbued the region with rich veins of ore that facilitates the industry of the domain.


Dr James Pugh

_See biography for full account_
Having left the decrepit town as a teenager, Pugh returned with a surprising supply of cash, a doctorate, and ambitious ideas about how the town should enter the bold new world of industry that was emerging. When he returned with a mysterious supply of money, he quickly set to work rebuilding his hometown to fit his own ideas. Where as the curse of their bloodline was formerly an accepted fact of life in the town, he introduced shame of their heritage along with the pioneering surgeries that could counteract it.

Dr James Pugh's Powers and Dominion
Despite being over seventy years old, Pugh appears to be in excellent health. Tall and lean, it’s clear to anyone meeting him, and confirmed by any who knew him as a youth, that he has always possessed an angular but handsome face, one that has only ever expressed seriousness or coldly simmering rage.
However, while age hasn’t affected him too greatly, his own surgery has: He has reptilian eyes, shimmering gold in the irises, and faint golden flecks in all visible skin. Golden scales can be seen around his neck and hands, though his habitual long-sleeved shirts don’t reveal much else. While most grafting subjects are left with swollen and distorted scars to be covered with heavy layers of make-up, Pugh’s few visible stiches are immaculate.
He always wears well made but not flamboyant clothing, so that it is his body, not attire, that draws the eye. Always practical, he is never seen in anything other than the ideal apparel for the occasion.
Though Pugh’s physical self is as full of hypocrisy as his ideology. Despite every sign of refinement and control, he can only maintain this visage by regular consumption of an expensive dragon-blood potion.

His true form, a consequence of his self-inflicted experiments, is a monstrous brute, with heavy staples holding together draconic and human flesh. These wounds are rife with infections that causes him to ooze pus and blood as he moves. While his hulking asymmetrical frame is strong, he suffers greatly from migraines, and thus his intelligence is drowned out by pain and anger. In a mockery of a dragon’s breath weapon, he can vomit great quantities of phosphorescent acid that ignites on contact with air.

Despite seeming to be bursting at the seams, his constitution is remarkable. He has survived poisoning, blood loss, strangulation, and many of his own experimental procedures beyond any reasonable explanation. Grievous wounds will render him in an apparently dead state for several days, but so far he has always woken back up.
However Pugh doesn’t hold sway over the domain by brute force, for almost none know his true condition. His true power is ideological and economic.
With his stolen money, he made many early investments into the mining sector, paid for the rail line that feeds visitors into the town, is the landlord of many homes in the town, and financed most of the tourist attractions. From this he earns a reliable and steady fortune that frees him up to pursue his research, and gives him leverage over a significant amount of the town as their landlord or employer.

Whilst the domains police are not officially under his command, his generous donations, forensic assistance, and loyal local politicians means that they tend to act in his favour.
And when he needs direct actions take, he has the Goldscale Carvers.
As their owner, he has cultivated a collection of brutal and loyal men who aren’t afraid of dirty work. They are also the unofficial biohazard containment specialists of the domain, so Pugh will gladly invent some hazard the police are ill-suited to handle when he wants things handled by his goons.

If attacked, he can choose to transform into his monstrous true form, but will resist doing so at almost any cost. Instead, he is comfortable in using potions and a dueling pistol, along with some magic that resides in him from all his tampering with dragon’s blood.

Dr James Pugh's Torment
· Xrilath is occupied full time with undermining Pugh’s ideology and trying to engineer his fall from grace. The mad aboleth believes only by bringing Pugh down to his level will they all be free of the mists (He’s not wrong either).
· Pugh relies on the dragonflesh mines to not only make money, but also perpetuate his ideology of grafting. Yet he’s terrified one day a dragon will break loose and take revenge on him for his crimes against them.
· Despite all his talk, Pugh has the most monstrous, most obscene grafts of everyone. By his own preaching, if anyone found out, they’d cast him down for his weakness.

Roleplaying Dr Jame Pugh
Pugh is a man of many dualities, hypocrisy made flesh. He’s the tortured spirit of a man whose self-image and true self are incompatible. Pugh’s motives are a web of his enlightened philosophies and base desires. What welds them together is his determination, an iron rod that glows hot enough to burn but never bends.

Pugh believes that gracious physical form belies a noble mind, and vice versa. And that his surgeries are not simple jobs of stitching and cutting, but a means of balancing out a noble intellect with a suitable body, if said body has been unfairly tainted. He blames failed surgeries and the common madness that comes from them on the result of unworthy recipients trying to claim grander forms than they deserve. He practices phrenology, the pseudoscience of determining character from the shape of one’s skull. He will often offer to undertake a phrenological exam on new acquaintances and prospective clients, and fills in the results with assumptions and what knowledge he has gathered on them so far.

In another brazen display of circular logic, he believes that the taint of the deep ones hides the town’s true draconic ancestry, and that the surgery simply helps it rise to the surface. Yet his own true body is a mockery of his own art, the most gruesome of all his patients is himself, and his grandeur is only a façade.

Most tragically, is that from a young age, Pugh has adored the legends of old. He envies the way that the world used to make sense, that people could earn their place by their qualities, and that larger-than-life characters decided the fate of the world. Yet he’s too astute to be blind to the apathetic randomness of the modern world, where logic and science tell us that nobody is truly important. This manifests in his ideology of great people displaying draconic traits, and sometimes in his more crazed experiments…
For Dr James Pugh does go mad. Sometimes for days at a time, he’ll whip himself into a stupor of narcotics and paranoia, lock himself in his laboratory, and perform experiments that would sicken even himself in the light of day. Mockeries of beast of legends, such as drakes and chimeras, are a common result of this.
Bonds: “I have a lot of work still ahead of me: I must fend of the nefarious Deep Ones, perfect my work of removing their curse, and outs my rivals for this kingdom I have built.”
Ideals: “A man should be strong, unwavering, and bold. What he owns is proof of his power. A graceful visage belies a respectable heart.”
Flaws: “I’m surrounded by enemies at all time! I can’t trust anyone! Paranoid? I’ll show you paranoia!” “I’m terrified of dragons.” “My body and blood are tainted and I’m worried I won’t be able to undo any of it.”
Traits: “Yes I’m the smartest man in the room. Any room. All rooms. I take what I want, and by successfully doing so, I prove that I am right to do so.”

Despite his exhaustive list of flaws, Dr James Pugh is an extremely capable individual. Along with his academic brilliance, he has a keen mind for business, strategy, and social manipulation. He can be charming, though more often opts for an aloof commanding presence. Knowing how durable he’s become, he rarely shows fear.
Pugh will try to befriend anyone who seems well-learned, strong-willed, and bold. He’ll compliment those he believes are following his ideals, but the closer they come to being his ideal man, the more he’ll see them as a rival.


Adventures in Caergwynt
By its design, Caergwynt has a wide variety of locations to explore, and several factions to interact with. The ocean is riddled with the feuding Deep Ones, shipwrecks, and the mutated kin of Caergwynt. Inland is host to fey and ghosts that bedevil the simple farming folk, as well as with dragonflesh mines. Caergwynt town is a hotbed for backstreet surgeries, families torn apart by biology, and the clash of the old ways against the new. And while the domain is modern enough for gunpowder, steam trains, and even the odd electric bulb, the history of a thousand years ago still casts its shadow into the current day.

· A pair of serial killers have been abducting those with dragon grafts ripping out the valued flesh, and selling it on the black market. Can anyone track them down?
· A man driven mad by his grafts has become obsessed with a 30 year old shipwreck, claiming that the sunken treasure aboard is his hoard, and has hired help finding it and taking it from a Deep One noble.
· A valuable item has been hidden in an abandoned mineshaft, but the Goldscale carvers have started using it as a convenient place to farm their carrion crawlers.
· A washed-up sea monster has started an outbreak of a strange disease. Pugh is confident he can create a cure, but needs someone to hunt down a living specimen.
· Sightings of a strange creature have spread around the town. Is it a monster from the ocean, or was it created closer to home. To find out, one would have to race the carvers to find and kill it, lest any evidence disappear.
submitted by Scifiase to ravenloft [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 23:03 DTMBBrown Emerald Nuzlocking Tips

I just recently finished a perfect deathless nuzlocke run of Vanilla Emerald (in my runs, a "perfect run" is battling every single trainer and getting all of the possible encounters), and I wanted to provide some tips for those wondering what to do for fights or encounter routing for dupes clause. Before I begin, here is my ruleset:
-Standard deathless hardcore nuzlocke rules (1st encounter only, gym leader level caps, set mode, no items except for held items, 1 death = reset).
-Shiny Clause: I can freely catch a shiny, but I have to use it on the E4 team (for the Champion Picture).
-Rare Candies are hacked in to avoid grinding and time poorly wasted.
-Battling wild encounters for the sake of grinding EVs is banned (This makes the game MUCH harder as you can only grind EVs off of the limited number of trainer battles).
-Rematching trainers is banned (Limited EV investments and limited money).
-Level Edging is banned. Once the Pokemon has reached the level cap, they are boxed until the gym fight.
-Legendaries are permitted if they are under level cap. In other words, Rayquaza is unusable, but the Regi Trio is fair game.
-Wallace is the end game.
Roxanne Split:
I prefer getting the following encounters, in ideally the following order:
-Mudkip on Route 101. He is undisputedly the best starter. Reset for a better nature/IVs than mine. I had Bold with bad IVs.
-Poochyena (Explicitly for Dupes Clause and Tate & Liza)
-Zigzagoon (HM Mule + Pickup. Reset if Zig is not the encounter on routes 102 or 103.)
-Wurmple (Reset game to roll Dustox)
-Taillow (Repel manip @ Level 8 on Route 116 for a 91% chance at rolling Taillow, after nabbing Poochyena. Reset if the game rolls Skitty. I also don't play with Shedinja, so no Nincada, not to mention Nincada is heavily inconsistent to encounter.)
-Whismur (Rusturf, useful for almost all of the repel manip strats)
-Shroomish (come back after getting Wurmple and Taillow for a 75% chance at getting Shroomish. Reset if Slakoth is rolled.)
Yes, I reset for ideal early game encounters. This set of encounters makes the game so much smoother. There is lots of coverage in this team and there are almost no chances for deaths if you play around crits and Bide Seedots. Use documentation in case you do not know what you are facing next.
Roxanne Fight: Use Mudkip for Roxanne's Geodudes and Shroomish for the Nosepass. Leech Seed until you win.
Brawly Split: Magikarp, Tentacool, and Repel manip @ Level 10 for a guaranteed Makuhita.
Brawly Fight: Solo with Dustox/Beautifly or poisoned Taillow. Unpoisoned Taillow gets killed by Makuhita nearly every time.
Wattson Split: Roll your Route 117 encounter before rolling your Route 110 encounter. Remember your repel manip Poochyena and Whismur? Use these now. You want Level 14 Oddish on Route 117 and any of the other Level 13 encounters (repel manip to avoid Wingulls) on Route 110. Any encounter will do fine. If you roll Electrike here, you will need to roll the tedious 1% Kecleon on Route 118 (I typically go for Sharpedo on Route 122 for anyone trying to point out Carvanha).
Wattson Fight: This is a tough one. I make sure that Marshtomp, Breloom, Hariyama, and Gloom (if I rolled an Oddish) is all on my team. I hate that the AI is really stupid, so I typically do not bring Gyarados for that reason, unless I am intentionally switching between Gyarados and Marshtomp (Gyarados is great for pivoting in Rom Hacks where the AI is smarter). Equip a bunch of Cheri Berries onto everything, and maybe a Persim Berry on Marshtomp if you received one from the flower shop on Route 104.
Flannery Split: There are a lot of potential encounters here. Here are some highlights:
Nothing else major to note. Numel is nice to have for Winona (Evolves into Camerupt right at level cap). Spoink is guaranteed if you roll Numel and Machop. I've heard of useful strats out of Grumpig, but have never utilized those strats myself.
Maxie fight: Gyarados and Hariyama do well here. Graveler is notable. Marshtomp is ok. Bubblebeam Azumarill is great, especially if you have Thick Fat.
Flannery Fight: Oh boy, our first real run-killer if playing deathless like me. Everything can be washed away with Bubblebeam Azumarill or Tentacool except for Torkoal. Don't let her set up Sunny Day and don't get crit. Sometimes stealing her White Herb can help but it can also waste a turn for Sunny Day set up. Double Team is useful, but set it up on Slugma (Tentacool is ideal, just watch out for Body Slam crits from Torkoal, as those WILL kill without EV investment). Thick Fat Azumarill is actually ideal for this fight. Graveler Magnitude 10 will one-shot Torkoal. Dragon Rage Gyarados is great even though Intimidate does not work because of White Smoke. Try to avoid using Marshtomp, aa he does not do enough damage. Wobbuffet can be useful, but it is a guessing game on what move Torkoal will use.
Norman Split:
Norman Fight: Here's my strategy. Persim Berry Hariyama will kill the first three mons on Norman's team. Do NOT use Fake Out on Spinda, as it knows Encore. Just click Vital Throw three times. Make sure Vigoroth does not crit, otherwise you might need a backup mon, like Breloom.
When Slaking comes out, send in your Torkoal, Anorith, or Dustox (or Pelipper if you don't reset for early game encounters like me and you do catch Wingull early). Equip a Leppa Berry on your Protect mon and slowly whittle away the brute. Sandslash is also okay if you know whether you are faster or slower, as Dig can be handy if you have good defensive investments. Remember that if Slaking is intended to attack on the turns Norman heals, Slaking will NOT attack next turn. If he heals on loaf turns, Slaking WILL attack the following turn.
Winona Split: Here's a list of the encounters you should roll, in the following order:
-Wingull on Route 109
-Electrike/Manectric/Kecleon on Route 118 (Repel manip @ Level 26 if you are going for Electrike/Manectric.)
-Wailmer w/ Good Rod on Route 108 (you can also get this on the eastern water routes, I tend to forget about him if I catch him later though).
-Feebas on Route 119. Yes, get the Feebas. This is the ONLY reason I choose the Root Fossil (Lileep) in my runs, is that Suction Cups increases the likelihood of rod mons to appear, including Feebas. Fish 2-3 times per tile and move on. You only get the lower section to work with (since the upper section is unlocked after obtaining Castform, which would be your encounter for the route). I've gotten Feebas as early as the 2nd and 4th tiles on two separate save files. Use Kelpsy Berries to evolve into Milotic. Surf, Ice Beam, Toxic, Recover. Boom, you have a lethal weapon on your team.
-Wait for the Route 115 encounter until after rolling the repel manipped Level 39 Altaria at Sky Pillar.
-Anything except Kecleon on Route 120. Absol can ruin your day with Swords Dance/Quick Attack/Razor Wind.
-Notice how Route 105 was not mentioned. This is just in case you roll the 5% Underwater Relicanth so that you can bring Regice to the E4.
Notes: Trainers begin to get tougher now, with halfway decent strats and cores to ruin your day. Read the docs to know what you're facing. Make good use of the Exp Share, Amulet Coin, and Macho Brace in all of your battles. If you are Exp grinding, make use of the day care, just make sure your useless moves are in the top slots so that you don't lose a good move you can't get back. Remember also that the day care does not EV train your Pokemon.
Winona Fight: Use Bolt Beam Gyarados and sweep. That's it. Alternatively, Camerupt and Manectric are good choices.
Tate & Liza Split:
-Shuppet on Route 121
-Duskull on the upper levels of Mt. Pyre
-Safari Zone Encounter (Psyduck, Girafarig, Pikachu, Doduo, Rhyhorn, Natu, etc.): Go for the easy-to-catch encounters if you are playing hard Safari Zone rules (1st encounter only, no 2nd attempts for run-away mons). I like rolling Psyduck because they are guaranteed and are easy to catch.
-Kecleon on Route 123 if he is not already caught
-Magma Hideout encounter (Torkoal or Geodude/Graveler)
-Electrode in Aqua Hideout (Use the Master Ball sitting next to the Electrode, as you will not need the Master Ball more anywhere else more than on an Exploding Electrode. Your only other option is Damp Psyduck from the Safari Zone, whose ability is a 50/50 roll. and nearly dies to Spark Crit anyways.)
-Magnemite in New Mauville (Magnet Pull is preferred if you still have not rolled Route 113.
-Skarmory on Route 113 if you don't take my advice and roll for him in the late game. Just make sure Magnet Pull Magnemite is your first member in the party.
Get the Super Rod and use it for the following encounters (just be careful of over-leveled trainers) in no particular order:
-Staryu in Lilycove City (Can be used in E4)
-Luvdisc in Evergrande (Useless)
-Corsola on Route 128 (Mostly useless, this can be swapped with Luvdisc)
-Horsea on Routes 132, 133, or 134 (Useless without trades, with the exception of being a useful HM Water Mule)
-Corphish in Petalburg City (Useful for Tate & Liza)
-Sharpedo on Route 122 (Useful for Tate & Liza)
Once again, watch out for tricky strategies.
Tate & Liza Fight: Get ready to kill them quickly or be killed. My strat is as follows: Poisoned Swellow uses Facade on Xatu to OHKO it. Wailord uses Protect on the incoming EQ from Claydol or Water Spout if it is faster. Swellow either Facades again on Claydol, Protects, or switches out to a Water or Dark Type. Wailord blasts Claydol again or switches to something else. Some notable switches:
Make sure to have 2 dark types at minimum for this fight and leave Lunatone to be the last one on the field. Even though it has Calm Mind, the only attacking move it has is Psychic.
Juan Split:
-Underwater Encounter. Yes, the location description is "Underwater," not "Route 124." You want Chinchou, regardless of whether it has Volt Absorb or not (VA is a plus). Manectric and Electrode both have a 50/50 chance of having the Static ability, which boosts the chance of electric types appearing when the beholder is first in the party. It does not make Chinchou guaranteed, but much more likely to appear than the less-than-fortunate 30% chance. This is why Pikachu is an option in the Safari Zone since it is guaranteed to have Static. Just make sure you feed the PokeBlock feeder the color that Pikachu likes (never used this method myself but there are articles about it online) to have a good chance to catch it. Relicanth is nice for Regice. Clamperl would be good if you could obtain it early game but you can't. Even with the DeepSeaTooth and Shell Armor it simply cannot do that much.
-Seafloor Cavern: Get the Luxury Ball first in the Abandoned Ship and then catch Zubat here. Bring Vileplume/Bellossom with Sleep Powder and then whittle it down with other moves to have the best chance for capture with the one Luxury Ball you are guven in the entire game.
-Shoal Cave: You do Seafloor Cavern first to guarantee Spheal here. Spheal is better than Snorunt. Trust me.
-Cave of Origin: Sableye (Useless)
-Sky Pillar: Repel manip @ Level 39 on the 2nd to top floor for a guaranteed Altaria. It does not have Perish Song. That is much safer than playing with an Exploding Claydol.
-Route 115: NOW you may get your useless Jigglypuff.
Get the Blue Shards and Water Stones. These are useful for Lombre and Staryu. Everything else is mostly useless except for a Leaf Stone if you are evolving Gloom into Vileplume (do it after level 35 for Moonlight).
Besides Archie (Use Hariyama, Manectric/Electrode/Magneton, Gyarados, etc.), this is a fairly easy split and you can obtain a LOT of money from the trainers underneath Juan's gym with the Amulet Coin. This is useful for all the TMs in the Game Corner.
Juan Fight: Use your electric type on everything except for Whiscash and Kingdra. Whiscash is defeated with a grass type, just kill it before it sets up Amnesias and PP stalls you out of your grass type moves. Alternately use a powerful physical attacker who doesn't die easily. Kingdra can be PP stalled with a recovering water type, and that is usually your best option. Once again Milotic shines here. Starmie is also rather good here, given you made sure to teach it Recover before evolving it. Otherwise, you can use a mon with Shock Wave/Faint Attack/Aerial Ace/Magical Leaf and some sort of recovery, and wish for a crit.
Elite 4 Split:
-Bagon in Meteor Falls. Watch out for Fire Spin trapping Solrock, as I had to reset once here this late in the game because of it.
-Aron/Lairon in Victory Road. Cradily, Exploud, and Soundproof Electrode are your three options for catching this because all three are immune to Roar. This is why you go for Makuhita in Granite Cave because only Cradily is immune to Whirlwind Hariyama in Victory Road and it dies to Hariyama's Belly Drum + SmellingSalt. Hariyama is also so much more useful during the story than Aron/Lairon will ever be. Alternatively, you can roll for Mawile which is miles worse.
Victory Road trainers are tough. Make sure you battle the last two trainers one at a time because their strategies are top tier (Skill Swap on Slakings + Coverage). No Wobbuffets fortunately but plenty of other stuff to mess you up. Look at docs before battling each and every trainer. Having a Dig mon (Flygon/Sandslash) is nice to escape easily. Take Linoone to HM blast your way through the maze. Unlike what other sources say, you do NOT need Waterfall to get through Victory Road.
E4 Fight: I finished the E4 deathless with a mono water team consisting of Gyarados, Milotic, Starmie, Swampert, Ludicolo, and VA Lanturn. In my run, Starmie was almost never used, despite having some impressive coverage options and Recover. Milotic saved my run against Wallace. Gyarados can pivot into anything. Lanturn was the electric type for my team, though Gyarados also possessed T-bolt for Wallace.
Some other notable options include:
If you have read this far, congrats and thank you. I enjoy completing nuzlockes in my spare time and wanted to share some information I could not obtain myself on the internet for others to read. If I missed or overlooked something, please let me know all about it.
submitted by DTMBBrown to nuzlocke [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 23:02 Psychological-War287 Tiny Town Challenge 2.0: Inspired by Deligracy

Tiny Town Challenge 2.0: Inspired by Deligracy
Introduction
A huge thank you to Deligracy for creating the original Tiny Town challenge. I had so much fun playing her lot and Sims that I had to create another iteration just because I finished the first one 😆. Deligracy’s incredible creativity and the engaging gameplay she designed motivated me to expand on her fantastic idea, creating new characters in a second Tiny Town challenge for the Sims community to enjoy. If you haven’t already, do yourself a favour and be sure to check out Deligracy’s original challenge on her website and watch her amazing series on her YouTube channel. Unfortunately I can't link them here due to rules on this sub, but she's first if you google her!
https://preview.redd.it/c3tm5stbe83d1.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3a99205f02696db38ba6514abfb164f7707f53e
Lot and Placement
  • World: Windenburg (Get Together expansion pack)
  • Lot Name: Von-Windenburg Estate (64×64)
  • Neighbourhood: The Crumbling Isle
  • Lot Type: Residential Rental (using the For Rent expansion pack)
  • Download: Search for my EA ID: PlumbobParagon on the Gallery. The lot is called “Tiny Town 2.0”. The sims are also on the gallery in a single household called the Tiny Towners 2.0.
Like in Deligracy’s original challenge, this tiny town is built on a 64×64 lot. Here, I placed the lot in Windenburg. It is set up in the same way, with 7 mini-lots arranged in a horseshoe shape around a central shared area. Each mini-lot is designed to help your Sims start from zero simoleons and gradually build their tiny homes using only their skill.
😄 I do realise the lot is on an island and we’re trying to sell wares here. I thought it was funny and indicative of the high demand for our awesome creations—sims have to get on boats to purchase them!
Basic Setup for Each Sim
  • Each Sim starts with a tent, a bush for bathroom needs, a cooler for quick meals, and a labelled cardboard box for storing items (in my view, this was one of the cutest parts of Deligracy’s original lot 😍).
  • Each mini-lot is equipped with the minimal items necessary to support their specific skill enough that they can earn the money to survive and build their homes. Some lots have items outside the boxes, these are there to be sold so your sim can begin skill building.
  • I also fenced each lot with fences and gates in the appropriate styles and colours of each sim. I did add fun little signs and a bit of decor to each lot, but feel free to remove anything you don’t like. If you are deleting decor, I might suggest you deduct the simoleons from those items to keep gameplay more challenging (if that’s what you’re after!).
Challenge Rules
  1. Moving in Sims: You can randomly select sims using the Wheel of Names site. Roll for the order in which your tiny towners move in, or move in your favourites first ☺️!
  2. Starting Simoleons: Begin with zero simoleons. (Cheat code: money 0)
  3. Earning Money: Each Sim must use only their unique skill to earn money and build their tiny home.
  4. Building Homes: As Sims earn money, they can gradually build their tiny homes. The goal is to fully furnish and complete their homes before moving on to the next Sim.
  5. Shared Spaces: The central area is a communal space for all Sims to use for gatherings and activities. I really loved how Deligracy used that space in her videos to build a community building with a bathroom and temporary bedroom for the new Sims who are moving into Tiny Town. It was great how she had each of her Sims add on to the building gradually as she moved through the challenge, making the challenge progressively less difficult and simpler to move on to skill development instead of focusing purely on survival 😊.
  6. Household Management: Two Sims share a lot in Tiny Town 2.0 (Byron and Violet) as For Rent caps out at 6 units per lot. They can be in a relationship, be roommates, or business partners. During gameplay, move the first Sim who moved in to another household if needed to focus on the challenge for the second Sim, then move them back when appropriate. I did pair them because it may be helpful for them to purchase a barestaurant together to make money using their skills (Gourmet Cooking and Mixology). *In fact, I may even play these two together!
Character Profiles
https://preview.redd.it/6wbjrw4ke83d1.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=cca9d05521d1867e1b4e4236a2627f7cb7e03909
1. Serena Wave
  • Address: 1 Von-Windenburg Estate
  • Colour: Turquoise
  • Skill: Fishing
  • Decor Style: Island, Garden
  • Aspiration: Angling Ace
  • Traits: Loves the Outdoors, Cheerful, Active, Collector
  • Making Money: Serena can fish in the nearby water and sell her catches on the sales table or at a retail store.
  • Tip: Focus on fishing in different locations to complete the fish collection and increase your chances of catching valuable fish.
2. Miles Tune
  • Address: 2 Von-Windenburg Estate
  • Colour: Blue
  • Skill: Guitar, Singing, Songwriting
  • Decor Style: Mid Century, Mission
  • Aspiration: Musical Genius
  • Traits: Music Lover, Creative, Outgoing, Muser
  • Making Money: Miles can perform at bars like The Shrieking Llama to earn tips. Later, he can purchase the stage to earn more tips busking, and even later he can write and sell songs!
  • Tip: Playing for tips at venues will help you build your Guitar skill quickly and earn money.
3. Hazel Sparks
  • Address: 3 Von-Windenburg Estate
  • Colour: Black
  • Skill: Robotics
  • Decor Style: Contemporary, Industrial
  • Aspiration: Nerd Brain
  • Traits: Genius, Maker, Loner, Quick Learner
  • Making Money: Hazel can build robots and build skill using the Robotics Workstation. These items can be sold on sales tables or at retail stores.
  • Tip: Focus on building and upgrading robots to maximise their value and earn more money.
4. Harper Craft
  • Address: 4 Von-Windenburg Estate
  • Colour: Yellow
  • Skill: Fabrication
  • Decor Style: Boho, Shabby, Modern
  • Aspiration: Master Maker
  • Traits: Maker, Creative, Green Fiend, Muser
  • Making Money: Harper can recycle materials she finds dumpster diving at the public Maker Space in Evergreen Harbour to earn bits and pieces, the currency she needs to fabricate items. These items can be sold from the household inventory, but can be marked up if she purchases a retail store on a separate lot. Alternatively, there is a freelance crafting career where fabricated items can earn you money from gigs.
  • Tip: Harper will eventually need to save up enough for the candle making table to complete her aspiration.
5. Byron Spice
  • Address: 5 Von-Windenburg Estate (shared with Violet)
  • Colour: Red
  • Skill: Gourmet Cooking
  • Decor Style: Farmhouse, French Country
  • Aspiration: Master Chef
  • Traits: Foodie, Creative, Ambitious, Essence of Flavour
  • Making Money: Byron can cook gourmet meals and sell them using a home chef hustle table. He could also purchase a restaurant on a separate lot.
  • Tip: Completing cooking aspirations will unlock new recipes and allow you to cook higher quality meals.
6. Violet Charm
  • Address: 5 Von-Windenburg Estate (shared with Byron)
  • Colour: Purple
  • Skill: Mixology
  • Decor Style: Vintage, Luxe
  • Aspiration: Master Mixologist
  • Traits: Creative, Outgoing, Neat, Essence of Flavour
  • Making Money: Violet can mix drinks and sell them using sales tables or tend bars at venues or parties.
  • Tip: Hosting mixology classes or parties can help you build your skill and earn extra income.
7. Gemma Harmony
  • Address: 6 Von-Windenburg Estate
  • Colour: White and Natural Wood/Greenery
  • Skill: Wellness (Home Spa)
  • Decor Style: Modern, Minimalist, Natural
  • Aspiration: Zen Guru
  • Traits: Self-Assured, Cheerful, Loves the Outdoors, Spa Membership
  • Making Money: Gemma can run a spa from home, teaching yoga classes and offering wellness services including massage, meditation, and more.
  • Tip: Saving up for additional spa equipment like massage tables and meditation stools can expand her business.
Suggested Nearby Lots for Businesses:
  • Bars: The Old Quarter Inn, The Shrieking Llama
  • Restaurants: South Square Coffee
  • Retail Store: The empty residential lot next door is perfect for setting up a retail store, just change the lot type to retail and buy a cash register! You can sell fish, robots, fabricated items, and drinks in these retail shops.
Thank You
A massive and truly heartfelt thank you to Deligracy for the inspiration and original Tiny Town challenge. It was the most fun I’ve had playing The Sims 4, EVER. It is the best combination of all my favourite kinds of game play! I hope everyone enjoys this second version of Tiny Town as much as I enjoyed creating it (and playing the first one!). Happy simming!
Download:
Search for my EA ID: PlumbobParagon on the Gallery. The lot is called “Tiny Town 2.0”. The sims are also on the gallery in a single household called the Tiny Towners 2.0.
submitted by Psychological-War287 to Sims4 [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 21:49 spacedebriss THE DEADPOOL THEORY

THE DEADPOOL THEORY
THE DEADPOOL THEORY
I stayed up way too late last night and got up way too early this morning trying to put this together. I should probably edit it more, but oh well. This is what I have. I need to go do some other stuff now.
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Probably should have waited to post until I toiled some more. I want to add to the deadpool theory. Not take away from it, just add to it. I think the Deadpool and Retail Pool go more hand in hand. I think the Deadpool is the original pool that feeds the retail pool.
The key for me has always been how the naked shares are created. Over a year ago I honestly reached a point where the DD was a jumbled mess in my mind. I wanted to start from zero and see what I could find, but not really zero because I had read a lot of DD, thanks to others I knew what to start searching for, so I set out.
https://preview.redd.it/1qkm2bck183d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=700c6d2615eeb8805943faec5977200eb3414279
CITATIONS
If you think I’m pulling all of this out of my ass similar to how naked shares are pulled out of asses then please go read my old DD with charts and figures, goes more in depth, and has some strong citations in my opinion. OR better yet go absorb some of those citations, especially these first four:
1. THREE ESSAYS ON NAKED SHORT SELLING AND FAILS-TO-DELIVER by John W. Welborn
2. MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE by John W Welborn
3. ETF Short Interest and Failures-to-Deliver: Naked Short Selling or Operational Shorting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg&t=1655s
4. Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility by Thomas Stratmann and John W. Welborn
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2183251
If you’re going to only read one of these then I’d make it this one.
Everybody here should read a little Welborn in my opinion. Dude is the GOAT!
SOME RELEVANT SEC FILINGS:
  1. https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm
  2. https://www.sec.gov/rules/2003/11/commission-guidance-rule-3b-3-and-married-put-transactions
These two are pretty good, especially for understanding the old options loophole.
PDF FILES:
DISCLAIMER: these links will try to download a PDF from the SEC’s website
3. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.pdf
4. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2012/34-67451.pdf
5. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2007/34-56212fr.pdf
6. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775fr.pdf
7. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58190.pdf
8. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58592.pdf
9. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58572.pdf
10. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58723.pdf
11. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58711.pdf
12. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58773.pdf
13. https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf
14. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775.pdf
15. https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2006/34-54154.pdf
16. https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
MORE SEC
17. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
18. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-155.htm
19. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1159510/000137036821000064/a210729-ex992.htm
PLAYING BY THE RULES?
I wanted to research that old DD by looking at the rules of naked shorting. When I would look into old DD and theories, I kept ending up at the answer of fraud. They didn’t stand up to the rules, unless lots o’ fraud was involved. Until I got to ETFs….
Now again, if you want more info go read the first four citations up at the top. The first 2 citations are PhD papers covering possible naked shorting and the Options loophole. This is the old way, this Options loophole was closed by the SEC back in 2008. For the new ETF way of naked shorting you can explore citations 3 and 4. These two citations cover how ETFs could be used to still naked short today. This is why I always felt the reactions to my old DD were so strange. I’m basically saying there could be a monstrous naked shorting position out in the market and it could be operating under the rules. No fraud is needed! Why didn’t superstonk respond with more positivity to my old DD a year ago?! I still think that DD did a pretty good job of laying out how naked shorters could be operating under the rules.
The rules make it clear to me that:
BULLET SWAPS – Can’t be used to make naked shares of a stock. If a naked shorter points to bullet swaps as where they got the shares from then the SEC should laugh in their face. You would need a lot of SEC fraud. Bullet swaps would have other good uses, but not for the actual creation of naked shares.
REHYPOTHECATION – The idea here is that the naked shorter borrows shares infinitely. The naked shorter points to the borrow and sure the SEC could let that pass, but it should still count as a borrow. Otherwise, you need more SEC fraud to explain this one. The Market should see the naked short position because it should be tagged as borrowed, and the naked shorter would also need to pay for that borrow. These are both things the naked shorter is trying to avoid – that’s why they create naked shares rather than borrow shares. Alternatively, the naked shorter could have a deal with a broker. The naked shorter does infinite borrows off of the brokers stock, but again you would need fraud from the broker and the broker would likely demand payment on the “borrows”. For rehypothecation to work you need a lot of fraud and naked shorters would likely need to pay borrow fees. Properly creating naked shares within the rules means no borrowing would be done (could be expensive) and means no fraud has to be done.
OPTIONS – This is where it gets confusing. Options used to be used to naked short, I wrote a big DD on this about a year ago. It has a lot of pictures and deep dives into a lot of stuff including options. If you want to learn more about the options loophole, don’t read my old DD, scroll back up to the top and read some of Welborn’s Options work (citations 1 and 2).
You would need two participants to naked short back in the day and I believe that’s how it’s still done today. One would be a Market Maker and one would typically be a Hedge Fund. The Market Maker had special privileges around options, MMs and only MMs could point to un-exercised options as a locate for shares. They create shares out of thin air and send them to a hedge fund. The hedge fund sells the MM back futures contracts and/or calls. The Market Maker uses the calls as a locates and the Market is none the wiser. Or is just apathetic. But they were technically following the rules as written. These packages of naked shares would have been built with options, futures, and naked shares all packaged together. This Options Market Maker loophole went away in 2008.
Options should not be an effective loophole for creating massive amounts of naked shares anymore. Again, you would need lots of SEC fraud.
ETFs – I’m not just throwing ETFs out there. There is a fucking fantastic Welborn paper (citation 4) and also a youtube video from a business professor (citation 3) on ETFs and how ETFs could possibly be used to naked short. To use ETFs you would still need a Market Maker and a Hedge Fund (the HF could be another MM or big institution). The Market Maker has special privileges. 1. They can pull shares out of ETFs. 2. They can also set future redemption/creation dates with that same Hedge Fund and not tell anybody. It seems the Options loophole to naked short was replaced with an ETF redemption/creation loophole to naked short.
Here’s a footnote in an SEC filing – I think this could be a smoking gun:
https://preview.redd.it/212l1xyk183d1.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=f964a0d412ba172e208b401867174531e025d5fb
Page 10 from: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
The new ETF loophole:
  1. The Market Maker and the Hedge Fund enter into an agreement that the Market Maker will create ETFs for the Hedge Fund far in the future.
  2. The Market Maker sends naked ETFs to the Hedge Fund.
  3. The Hedge Fund sends the naked ETFs back to the Market Maker and redeems them (requests) that the ETFs be opened up for the (naked) shares inside.
If the SEC comes sniffing around they’re just going to see a bunch of shares sitting in the Hedge Funds account. They were pulled out of an ETF for him by the Market Maker. The SEC goes to the Market Maker and the Market Maker says, “yep, pulled ‘‘em out of ETFs for the Hedge Fund.” SEC says, “cool”.
If the SEC goes back to the Hedge Fund and asks where they got the ETFs from he points to the Market Maker. SEC, “sounds good, can I leave you my resume?”
If the SEC goes to the Market Maker and asks where he got the ETFs, the Market Maker would probably say, “Ha! Fuck if I know! I could buy and sell a million of that fucking ETF in a day. You want to look through our ledgers?” SEC, “Oh. I should probably take ‘em, but I’ll just look at porn instead. You guys hiring?”
  1. 4. The Hedge Fund now has naked shares from the Market Maker that look like real shares to the SEC. The Hedge Fund can sell them into the market to naked short and it just looks like selling shares. The Deadpool has been created.
The Deadpool. Naked shorters creating a pool of naked shares between themselves. Now they’d likely want to set expirations for this position far in the future. The Deadpool was just to create the original naked shares. You want to naked short the stock into the ground which could take decades, so you’d want this pool you created to last as long as possible.
These naked shares from the Market Maker to the Hedge Fund would be insured through futures and/or LEAPS. I believe they would likely insure them with one another using futures contracts instead of LEAPS, but I’m not positive. Either way, this “insurance” means that if it gets to expiration and the Hedge Fund hasn’t delivered shares, the Market Maker can use those futures contracts to force delivery. But why might we also see naked shorters holding huge amounts of options? The options could be hedging and leveraging with the wider market (not other naked shorters).
So, if naked shorters are using futures to insure that they won’t be left holding the bag with one another then they would likely want to use common expiration dates for LEAPS. That lets them grab some “insurance” (Call Options) and extra leverage (Put Options) from non-naked shorters. If the naked shorters position blows up and they owe the other naked shorter shares then they can use their calls to get some shares from the market. Or if they’re position does well then they can make extra profits off of their puts.
Here’s a diagram that will hopefully explain some of this better:
https://preview.redd.it/b7v91mel183d1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=fea8fab9bbd7dc881d1b08f467b80b0047fd46ca
The Hedge Fund is selling the naked shares from the Deadpool through the Market Maker into retail hands. Now the hedge fund like the market maker is going to want some futures or calls to make sure the market maker sells the shares back to him. But they’ll probably do this on a shorter timeline. Maybe they built the dealpool with three year expirations. Now they’ll naked short to retail probably using 1 year expirations.
I think retails average is about nine months for holding a stock. A year should be enough time to find a new share to buy in order to close/roll an old naked share. Retail naked shares would likely expire every March, June, September, December. Naked shorters are constantly closing and rolling their naked shorts with retail throughout the year. Or at least that’s the idea, usually retail sells pretty quickly and naked shorters can keep driving the price down.
Here’s a diagram to visualize deadpools and retail pools together. The red is the deadpool. The deadpools are the original pools of naked shares that are created with long expirations. It would make sense to have these expire three years out so 1. they last long – don’t have to keep creating naked shares and 2. they can be hedged/leveraged with the wider market using common expiration dates.
Then the yellow would be the pools of naked shares that are sold to retail. These would have shorter expirations because ideally the naked shorter would want to churn these in a year or less.
The naked shorters create a big deadpool of naked shares that will expire in three years. Then, if they’re using 1 year expirations with retail, they can use those naked shares in the market up to three times.
https://preview.redd.it/7fe2fwzl183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=029649336a89107a0519a9198fedee49929cc59c
Now look at where expiration dates line up between red pools and yellow pools. January and June. January and June are common expiration dates for LEAPS. Again, if the naked shorters want to hedge/leverage with the wider market then these would be the expiration dates they would want to build their naked shares around.
If the naked shares are built in this way then January of 2021 could have been a time where some of the Retail Pool and some of the Deadpool were expiring. Let’s say it’s a big expiration time and there are not enough shares. Maybe some DFV dude and a bunch of other retail investors are buying calls and shares. In this scenario, the Market Maker would try to find shares to close/roll the position. If unable, then the Hedge Fund would need to exercise their “insurance” and demand the shares from the MM. The Market Maker also has “insurance” though because he’s the big boy and he won’t be left holding the bag. The MM throws down his uno reverse card and screams, “No! You!”
BASKET THEORY – Why do other stocks move hard with GME at certain times?
Alright, let’s say naked shorters are building their positions how I’ve laid out. When naked shorters open the ETFs at the beginning of the deadpool, they are also pulling out naked shares of other companies. They could use those shares for a lot of different things. They could hold them and sell options to make money. Or they could also naked short some of those companies too.
Maybe, they open an ETF and pull out naked GME and some naked shares of another company. They could also naked short the other stocks into the market. It would move differently on a shorter timescale to GME because they’re rolling the position with retail a year at a time. It might move more in line with GME on a longer time scale.
When the deadpool expires they need to finish buying shares and creating ETFs. That could mean buying a bunch of different stocks at one time. Buy some the remaining GME, STOCK B, STOCK C, etc. and close/finish rolling your deadpool position by packaging those shares up into nice little ETFs.
2021 – 2024
This could all explain some of the wild stuff we’ve been seeing lately.
  1. Big price movement could signify that a big chunk of the deadpool opened three years ago could be expiring. Was all of that position rolled? Was a really big chunk of the deadpool created three years ago? I honestly have no clue.
  2. June would likely be when a chunk of retail naked shares also need to be closed/rolled. Retail naked shares expiring would be a yearly occurrence.
  3. Price movement of unrelated stocks. If a big chunk of the deadpool was built three years ago and is now expiring that would mean that shares need to be bought in order to finally create some ETFs. ETFs are made from baskets of stocks. If a naked shorters need to buy some other companies to build their ETFs then you could see price jumps in unrelated stocks.
  4. The naked shorted company sells some shares. Sure, some suspicious shit happened with your stock and maybe it could be naked shorting, but naked shorting is illegal and shorts closed, right? Really you just need cash to revolutionize your company so you put it out there that you’d like to start sell some shares. This could look like an off ramp for anyone who was naked shorting or someone who inherited a bunch of naked shorts. Might as well ask if you can get some of those shares. You know exactly when a large chunk of the deadpool is expiring because you’re know holding that toxic shit, so you’ll wait until the last minute to get out. How do you “insure” you can get out? If you can’t get enough shares directly from the company or from the market then your next best bet is options…
  5. Lots of options being bought lately. Let’s say you know you need a shit ton of shares soon and you have a pretty strong feeling that the stock price could rocket soon. You have a finite amount of cash you can spend on shares. You can buy options! We covered how they’re like insurance.
Let’s keep the math simple and use 100 batches since options are sold in 100 share batches. You need 100 shares of Stock A by June 22nd. Stock A is around $20. You do the math and find out you have enough money to buy 100 shares and 1 $20 call. 100 shares of stock A at $20 would be $2000 and let’s say the call would be about $200. You have $2200 total. Now, there’s no guarantee that you can get 100 shares in the market for $20, especially if you think buying pressure is about to turn on hard. By your 100th share you could be paying a lot more, meaning your $2200 could run out before you have 100 shares.
And you NEED 100 shares! The call insures that someone else has to find the shares for $20 each. You spend your $200 on the call option expiring June 22nd. Now you’re guaranteed to get your 100 shares for $20 each even if the price skyrockets. You spent $2200 on 100 shares.
Again, no one knows who is buying these calls or why, but this could line up nicely with my theory that a chunk of the deadpool is expiring soon.
I don’t want to get anyone excited for MOASS. I’ve made bad predictions in the past. In the past I thought a MOASS would probably happen in March, but that was because I hadn’t connected the deadpool to everything. Don’t get hyped, but if deadpools are built with January and June expirations then it would make sense that MOASS could happen in January or June. It would explain why naked shorters almost got fucked in January 2021. If, they were able to survive and push a huge chunk of their deadpool out three years then June 2024 could be a rough time for them. I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee of a MOASS this June/July. I will say that I really would not want to be a naked shorter trying to roll a bad bet on GME this June.
Now this is all conjecture, but what if part of the deadpool needed to be rolled in January of 2021? Meaning the Hedge Fund needed to settle up with the Market Maker so they could finish closing the deadpool and keep the position rolling.
Now the Deadpool was the original pool of naked shares. The Market Maker pulled these naked shares out of ETFs and sent them to the Hedge Fund. Naked shorters usually want to keep the train going until the company is bankrupt so they’d usually keep closing and rolling the deadpool until that happens.
So, if you’ve followed along then January of 2021 could have been a pretty key date where a Market Maker may have needed to buy to settle a portion of the Retail Pool. These would be shares that the Hedge Fund naked shorted to retail through the Market Maker – insuring with futures and/or LEAPS. Then the Hedge Fund would have also needed to finish settling a portion of the Deadpool back to the Market Maker that’s about to expire. Again, these deadpool naked shares are the original naked shares pulled out of ETFs, probably three years ago. They’ve been using and abusing that naked share with retail for three years, probably a year or so at a time.
If the position blew up, say in January of 2021 then some Hedge Funds would have also blown the fuck up. First, the market maker would go to the market and try to buy shares. No shares. The market maker turns to the hedge fund and says, “sorry, no shares.” This is why the Hedge Fund bough “insurance” or hedged with his “buddy”. The Hedge Fund uses his contracts with the Market Maker to say, “here’s the cash, where are the shares?”
The Market Maker plays his reverse uno card: The original contracts he made with the Hedge Fund when the naked shares were created and says, “No! You!”
Hedge Fund: Fuck! There are no shares!
MM: Not my problem. Where are my shares?
Market: No shares.
The Market Maker has the Hedge Funds other positions liquidated until there’s enough cash to buy shares in the market. In asinine cases where this happens the market might allow the Market Maker to just turn off the buy button to save his sorry ass. This is considered by many to be complete bullshit.
The deadpool is closed/rolled. Possibly three years into the future. 2021 to 2024.
I think there might always be a Deadpool that then feeds the Retail Pool.
My other DD adds to the Deadpool theory and rehashes some of this, but the gist is that if you can create a deadpool with your “buddy” then could you just add a ton to the deadpool three years ago through the market to drive the price down and not add it to the retail pool. In other words, more naked shares that drive the price down, but they end up in your “friends” hands. He also want to drive the price down so you can worry less.
Adding to the deadpool in a really desperate time would make sense to me. Now if a bunch of shares were added to the deadpool three years ago and were split by the splividend then how does that all work? I think with a normal split, naked shares that are split in the deadpool could be settled with cash. Does the splividend change that?
In other words, if there were a bunch of naked shares shat into the deadpool three years ago. Then they were split, but delivery was delayed until expiration. And now they’re finally expiring. Can they be settled with cash or do real shares need to be bought to fulfill the long overdue splividend?
THE DRS POOL
https://preview.redd.it/rtxz74em183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=60d875bd27f7567deeb55e34c9f0283127d973af
This just tries to simplify thing. The way the naked share is likely built results in it ending up in a deadpool between the naked shorters. They then pull naked shares from the deadpool and send them out into the market to naked short.
Good thing, you have recourse! Believe you’ve been sold a naked share?! Your only way to truly find out if you have a real share or not is by DRSing. Pull your shares into the DRS Pool. Now you can have peace of mind that it’s a real share.
ENDGAME
If I were a naked shorter facing a potential MOASS, what would I do?
  1. CHAOS & INFIGHTING – I would make sure I have as much control over the group as I could. If a MOASS pops off then I want to get hodlers fighting and not listening to one another. Confusion! Panic! Sell! I need their shares! I need hodlers to sell!
If I’m a naked shorter then I don’t want people to stay calm. I don’t want them learning about the market or sharing what they’ve learned. I want confusion.
  1. FEAR OF CALLS – Yes, I am pro options, but no I’m not telling you to go buy options. Options are risky, but if you know what you’re doing they can be very beneficial. In this scenario, I’m a naked shorter facing down a MOASS and I want people to sell shares. I really don’t want hodlers buying LONG CALLS or LEAPS. These are call options shot way out into the future, they’re risky, but less risky then short term options. Now, if I’m a naked shorter why don’t I want hodlers buying LONG CALLS?
  2. I could hedge that position by buying shares – if I’m super naked I probably won’t though. But if someone else sells the call they might hedge by buying shares.
  3. I want shares! I NEED shares! If I start smashing that buy button and no one sells then the price goes up until someone does. If everyone is hodling their shares and the price is going up then CALL options are getting more expensive. That means if hodlers have shares and calls they can sell the calls for profits and not sell me (the naked shorter) a single one of their shares. They can keep hodling, and/or use call profits to buy more shares and/or buy calls.
The price rises. Hodlers sell their calls for profits instead of their shares. I can’t find shares. The price rises. Hopefully, you get the picture.
HOW WOULD A MOASS START IN THIS SCENARIO?
Alright, we don’t know why a MOASS would pop off. It would probably be expiration dates and/or too many DRSd shares. But we still actually do know why: naked shorting, not enough shares, buy button smashed, price goes boom!
If it’s built the way I explained here, then MOASS means the Market Maker went to the market to buy some shares and there weren’t enough shares. But they like REALLY NEED SHARES. The price rises.
If it gets to expiration of some of the retail naked shares and they haven’t been rolled then the position starts unraveling.
MM: No shares.
HF: Contract. Shares now!
MM: No! You!
HF: Fuck.
MM: Margin Call
HF: I’m dying.
Let’s say this is what happened last time. The Hedge Funds blew up, if it happened again, would it now be a Market Maker and a bigger Market Maker stuck in this death loop?
MM: I have assumed the position.
lol
MM: Fuck, you know what I meant. I absorbed the HF’s toxic naked shorts!
So, if the Market Maker absorbed the naked short side of the play and is now the one who will be margin called. Who absorbed the Market Maker’s side? The one holding the “No! You!” reverse uno card this time around? If the Market Maker can’t survive like the Hedge Fund? Can the new guy survive like the MM did last time?
TL;DR
Some PhD papers by Welborn everyone needs to read like three years ago!
Options were used to naked short in the past – Welborn explains how.
ETFs likely used now – again, read Welborn. Please!
I layout how ETFs are likely pulled apart and shuffled around to create naked shares or what I like to call a deadpool. Dead shares that shouldn’t even exist.
Then the deadpool is pulled from to send naked shares into the market.
Again, if you want to learn how I got here I have a long DD from a year ago in my history OR preferably go read Welborn’s work.
The way this is all done means because of the way the naked shares are sent to market there could be weird price movement around triple-witching dates. March/April, June/July, SeptembeOctober, DecembeJanuary. Triple-witching dates are March, June, September, December, but I push them out a month because Market Makers get a little extra leeway that us common folk don’t get. Again, in my old DD I talk about why they could potentially have an extra month tacked onto their expirations.
Then because of the way the shares are originally pulled out of ETFs there could be weird movement around common expirations for LEAPS. January and June.
January and June could be extra special times where a batch of naked shares are expiring in the hands of retail and need to finish being rolled. While, also having a batch of naked shares originally created for the deadpool that need to finish being rolled.
I know this is all confusing, but basically I believe the rules allow a loophole for naked shorting through ETFs. I believe the way those naked shares are created makes a deadpool parked with naked shorters. When they want to match a buy on the market (retail buys a share) they then pull a naked share out of the deadpool and send it to retail. Naked shares in the deadpool hangout for about three years at a time meaning they need to be closed or rolled within 3 years. Naked shares to retail would likely be done with a 1 year expiration since retail usually churns through shares fast. You’re able to create a naked share and sell it to retail and buy it back and sell it and buy it several times before the naked share needs to be renewed (rolled – a new naked share created and the old one finally closed).
Using ETFs could also explain weird movements in other stocks. If you’re already pulling a bunch of different stocks out of the ETF (not just GME) then you could use some of those naked shares to naked short other stocks as well. You’d be selling to retail at different times so the price may not move in tandem around the triple-witching dates, but they could move similarly around deadpool expiration dates. Remember, to close the naked shares from the deadpool you need to buy shares and create the ETFs. January 2021 could be a time where you need to buy a bunch of different stocks to close/roll some of the deadpool. June 2024 could also be a time where naked shorters might need to buy a bunch of different stocks in order to finally create some ETFs. You might see some unrelated stocks suddenly increasing in price at the same time.
In my opinion, if a stock is heavily naked shorted, then a MOASS would kick off for 1 of 2 reasons.
  1. All or enough of the Real Shares are DRSd, and the naked short position is revealed in the market.
  2. Converging expiration dates cause naked shorters to buy large amounts of stock at one time mixed with strong retail buying. I think this may have been what happened in January 2021 – it’s a common expiration date for the derivatives used to naked short and there was strong retail buying. It’s possible something similar is happening in June of 2024 – a common expiration date and would be 3 years from 2021 allowing for LEAPS to be bought on the wider market. And this time around, there’s also still strong buy pressure, hodling, and DRSing.
This summer could be exciting, but it’s not a MOASS guarantee. I think DRSing and hodling is the only true guarantee to uncover naked shorting.
submitted by spacedebriss to GME [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 21:45 spacedebriss THE DEADPOOL THEORY

THE DEADPOOL THEORY
THE DEADPOOL THEORY
I stayed up way too late last night and got up way too early this morning trying to put this together. I should probably edit it more, but oh well. This is what I have. I need to go do some other stuff now.
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Probably should have waited to post until I toiled some more. I want to add to the deadpool theory. Not take away from it, just add to it. I think the Deadpool and Retail Pool go more hand in hand. I think the Deadpool is the original pool that feeds the retail pool.
The key for me has always been how the naked shares are created. Over a year ago I honestly reached a point where the DD was a jumbled mess in my mind. I wanted to start from zero and see what I could find, but not really zero because I had read a lot of DD, thanks to others I knew what to start searching for, so I set out.
https://preview.redd.it/kx9s01yz083d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=134e135f9a393230b850ad5f96493d402a4aad14

CITATIONS
If you think I’m pulling all of this out of my ass similar to how naked shares are pulled out of asses then please go read my old DD with charts and figures, goes more in depth, and has some strong citations in my opinion. OR better yet go absorb some of those citations, especially these first four:
1. THREE ESSAYS ON NAKED SHORT SELLING AND FAILS-TO-DELIVER by John W. Welborn
2. MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE by John W Welborn
3. ETF Short Interest and Failures-to-Deliver: Naked Short Selling or Operational Shorting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg&t=1655s
4. Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility by Thomas Stratmann and John W. Welborn
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2183251
If you’re going to only read one of these then I’d make it this one.
Everybody here should read a little Welborn in my opinion. Dude is the GOAT!
SOME RELEVANT SEC FILINGS:
  1. https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm
  2. https://www.sec.gov/rules/2003/11/commission-guidance-rule-3b-3-and-married-put-transactions
These two are pretty good, especially for understanding the old options loophole.
PDF FILES:
DISCLAIMER: these links will try to download a PDF from the SEC’s website
3. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.pdf
4. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2012/34-67451.pdf
5. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2007/34-56212fr.pdf
6. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775fr.pdf
7. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58190.pdf
8. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58592.pdf
9. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58572.pdf
10. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58723.pdf
11. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58711.pdf
12. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58773.pdf
13. https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf
14. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775.pdf
15. https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2006/34-54154.pdf
16. https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
MORE SEC
17. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
18. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-155.htm
19. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1159510/000137036821000064/a210729-ex992.htm
PLAYING BY THE RULES?
I wanted to research that old DD by looking at the rules of naked shorting. When I would look into old DD and theories, I kept ending up at the answer of fraud. They didn’t stand up to the rules, unless lots o’ fraud was involved. Until I got to ETFs….
Now again, if you want more info go read the first four citations up at the top. The first 2 citations are PhD papers covering possible naked shorting and the Options loophole. This is the old way, this Options loophole was closed by the SEC back in 2008. For the new ETF way of naked shorting you can explore citations 3 and 4. These two citations cover how ETFs could be used to still naked short today. This is why I always felt the reactions to my old DD were so strange. I’m basically saying there could be a monstrous naked shorting position out in the market and it could be operating under the rules. No fraud is needed! Why didn’t superstonk respond with more positivity to my old DD a year ago?! I still think that DD did a pretty good job of laying out how naked shorters could be operating under the rules.
The rules make it clear to me that:
BULLET SWAPS – Can’t be used to make naked shares of a stock. If a naked shorter points to bullet swaps as where they got the shares from then the SEC should laugh in their face. You would need a lot of SEC fraud. Bullet swaps would have other good uses, but not for the actual creation of naked shares.
REHYPOTHECATION – The idea here is that the naked shorter borrows shares infinitely. The naked shorter points to the borrow and sure the SEC could let that pass, but it should still count as a borrow. Otherwise, you need more SEC fraud to explain this one. The Market should see the naked short position because it should be tagged as borrowed, and the naked shorter would also need to pay for that borrow. These are both things the naked shorter is trying to avoid – that’s why they create naked shares rather than borrow shares. Alternatively, the naked shorter could have a deal with a broker. The naked shorter does infinite borrows off of the brokers stock, but again you would need fraud from the broker and the broker would likely demand payment on the “borrows”. For rehypothecation to work you need a lot of fraud and naked shorters would likely need to pay borrow fees. Properly creating naked shares within the rules means no borrowing would be done (could be expensive) and means no fraud has to be done.
OPTIONS – This is where it gets confusing. Options used to be used to naked short, I wrote a big DD on this about a year ago. It has a lot of pictures and deep dives into a lot of stuff including options. If you want to learn more about the options loophole, don’t read my old DD, scroll back up to the top and read some of Welborn’s Options work (citations 1 and 2).
You would need two participants to naked short back in the day and I believe that’s how it’s still done today. One would be a Market Maker and one would typically be a Hedge Fund. The Market Maker had special privileges around options, MMs and only MMs could point to un-exercised options as a locate for shares. They create shares out of thin air and send them to a hedge fund. The hedge fund sells the MM back futures contracts and/or calls. The Market Maker uses the calls as a locates and the Market is none the wiser. Or is just apathetic. But they were technically following the rules as written. These packages of naked shares would have been built with options, futures, and naked shares all packaged together. This Options Market Maker loophole went away in 2008.
Options should not be an effective loophole for creating massive amounts of naked shares anymore. Again, you would need lots of SEC fraud.
ETFs – I’m not just throwing ETFs out there. There is a fucking fantastic Welborn paper (citation 4) and also a youtube video from a business professor (citation 3) on ETFs and how ETFs could possibly be used to naked short. To use ETFs you would still need a Market Maker and a Hedge Fund (the HF could be another MM or big institution). The Market Maker has special privileges. 1. They can pull shares out of ETFs. 2. They can also set future redemption/creation dates with that same Hedge Fund and not tell anybody. It seems the Options loophole to naked short was replaced with an ETF redemption/creation loophole to naked short.
Here’s a footnote in an SEC filing – I think this could be a smoking gun:
https://preview.redd.it/7u7rs7t0183d1.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce911b6ef047ade8526551280a8642bc3fee6c96

Page 10 from: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
The new ETF loophole:
  1. The Market Maker and the Hedge Fund enter into an agreement that the Market Maker will create ETFs for the Hedge Fund far in the future.
  2. The Market Maker sends naked ETFs to the Hedge Fund.
  3. The Hedge Fund sends the naked ETFs back to the Market Maker and redeems them (requests) that the ETFs be opened up for the (naked) shares inside.
If the SEC comes sniffing around they’re just going to see a bunch of shares sitting in the Hedge Funds account. They were pulled out of an ETF for him by the Market Maker. The SEC goes to the Market Maker and the Market Maker says, “yep, pulled ‘‘em out of ETFs for the Hedge Fund.” SEC says, “cool”.
If the SEC goes back to the Hedge Fund and asks where they got the ETFs from he points to the Market Maker. SEC, “sounds good, can I leave you my resume?”
If the SEC goes to the Market Maker and asks where he got the ETFs, the Market Maker would probably say, “Ha! Fuck if I know! I could buy and sell a million of that fucking ETF in a day. You want to look through our ledgers?” SEC, “Oh. I should probably take ‘em, but I’ll just look at porn instead. You guys hiring?”
  1. 4. The Hedge Fund now has naked shares from the Market Maker that look like real shares to the SEC. The Hedge Fund can sell them into the market to naked short and it just looks like selling shares. The Deadpool has been created.
The Deadpool. Naked shorters creating a pool of naked shares between themselves. Now they’d likely want to set expirations for this position far in the future. The Deadpool was just to create the original naked shares. You want to naked short the stock into the ground which could take decades, so you’d want this pool you created to last as long as possible.
These naked shares from the Market Maker to the Hedge Fund would be insured through futures and/or LEAPS. I believe they would likely insure them with one another using futures contracts instead of LEAPS, but I’m not positive. Either way, this “insurance” means that if it gets to expiration and the Hedge Fund hasn’t delivered shares, the Market Maker can use those futures contracts to force delivery. But why might we also see naked shorters holding huge amounts of options? The options could be hedging and leveraging with the wider market (not other naked shorters).
So, if naked shorters are using futures to insure that they won’t be left holding the bag with one another then they would likely want to use common expiration dates for LEAPS. That lets them grab some “insurance” (Call Options) and extra leverage (Put Options) from non-naked shorters. If the naked shorters position blows up and they owe the other naked shorter shares then they can use their calls to get some shares from the market. Or if they’re position does well then they can make extra profits off of their puts.
Here’s a diagram that will hopefully explain some of this better:
https://preview.redd.it/0k0k50k1183d1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6834a6efc5fc4630ffcf542dd3222f5d6fd4055

The Hedge Fund is selling the naked shares from the Deadpool through the Market Maker into retail hands. Now the hedge fund like the market maker is going to want some futures or calls to make sure the market maker sells the shares back to him. But they’ll probably do this on a shorter timeline. Maybe they built the dealpool with three year expirations. Now they’ll naked short to retail probably using 1 year expirations.
I think retails average is about nine months for holding a stock. A year should be enough time to find a new share to buy in order to close/roll an old naked share. Retail naked shares would likely expire every March, June, September, December. Naked shorters are constantly closing and rolling their naked shorts with retail throughout the year. Or at least that’s the idea, usually retail sells pretty quickly and naked shorters can keep driving the price down.
Here’s a diagram to visualize deadpools and retail pools together. The red is the deadpool. The deadpools are the original pools of naked shares that are created with long expirations. It would make sense to have these expire three years out so 1. they last long – don’t have to keep creating naked shares and 2. they can be hedged/leveraged with the wider market using common expiration dates.
Then the yellow would be the pools of naked shares that are sold to retail. These would have shorter expirations because ideally the naked shorter would want to churn these in a year or less.
The naked shorters create a big deadpool of naked shares that will expire in three years. Then, if they’re using 1 year expirations with retail, they can use those naked shares in the market up to three times.
https://preview.redd.it/9plf8u92183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a29d688b91802dc2fe01416a00a5b96a014ede8f

Now look at where expiration dates line up between red pools and yellow pools. January and June. January and June are common expiration dates for LEAPS. Again, if the naked shorters want to hedge/leverage with the wider market then these would be the expiration dates they would want to build their naked shares around.
If the naked shares are built in this way then January of 2021 could have been a time where some of the Retail Pool and some of the Deadpool were expiring. Let’s say it’s a big expiration time and there are not enough shares. Maybe some DFV dude and a bunch of other retail investors are buying calls and shares. In this scenario, the Market Maker would try to find shares to close/roll the position. If unable, then the Hedge Fund would need to exercise their “insurance” and demand the shares from the MM. The Market Maker also has “insurance” though because he’s the big boy and he won’t be left holding the bag. The MM throws down his uno reverse card and screams, “No! You!”
BASKET THEORY – Why do other stocks move hard with GME at certain times?
Alright, let’s say naked shorters are building their positions how I’ve laid out. When naked shorters open the ETFs at the beginning of the deadpool, they are also pulling out naked shares of other companies. They could use those shares for a lot of different things. They could hold them and sell options to make money. Or they could also naked short some of those companies too.
Maybe, they open an ETF and pull out naked GME and some naked POPCORN. They could also naked short POPCORN into the market. It would move differently on a shorter timescale to GME because they’re rolling the position with retail a year at a time. It might move more in line with GME on a longer time scale.
When the deadpool expires they need to finish buying shares and creating ETFs. That could mean buying a bunch of different stocks at one time. Buy some the remaining GME, POPCORN, HEADPHONES, etc. and close/finish rolling your deadpool position by packaging those shares up into nice little ETFs.
2021 – 2024
This could all explain some of the wild stuff we’ve been seeing lately.
  1. Big price movement could signify that a big chunk of the deadpool opened three years ago could be expiring. Was all of that position rolled? Was a really big chunk of the deadpool created three years ago? I honestly have no clue.
  2. June would likely be when a chunk of retail naked shares also need to be closed/rolled. Retail naked shares expiring would be a yearly occurrence.
  3. Price movement of unrelated stocks. If a big chunk of the deadpool was built three years ago and is now expiring that would mean that shares need to be bought in order to finally create some ETFs. ETFs are made from baskets of stocks. If a naked shorters need to buy some other companies to build their ETFs then you could see price jumps in unrelated stocks.
  4. The naked shorted company sells some shares. Sure, some suspicious shit happened with your stock and maybe it could be naked shorting, but naked shorting is illegal and shorts closed, right? Really you just need cash to revolutionize your company so you put it out there that you’d like to start sell some shares. This could look like an off ramp for anyone who was naked shorting or someone who inherited a bunch of naked shorts. Might as well ask if you can get some of those shares. You know exactly when a large chunk of the deadpool is expiring because you’re know holding that toxic shit, so you’ll wait until the last minute to get out. How do you “insure” you can get out? If you can’t get enough shares directly from the company or from the market then your next best bet is options…
  5. Lots of options being bought lately. Let’s say you know you need a shit ton of shares soon and you have a pretty strong feeling that the stock price could rocket soon. You have a finite amount of cash you can spend on shares. You can buy options! We covered how they’re like insurance.
Let’s keep the math simple and use 100 batches since options are sold in 100 share batches. You need 100 shares of Stock A by June 22nd. Stock A is around $20. You do the math and find out you have enough money to buy 100 shares and 1 $20 call. 100 shares of stock A at $20 would be $2000 and let’s say the call would be about $200. You have $2200 total. Now, there’s no guarantee that you can get 100 shares in the market for $20, especially if you think buying pressure is about to turn on hard. By your 100th share you could be paying a lot more, meaning your $2200 could run out before you have 100 shares.
And you NEED 100 shares! The call insures that someone else has to find the shares for $20 each. You spend your $200 on the call option expiring June 22nd. Now you’re guaranteed to get your 100 shares for $20 each even if the price skyrockets. You spent $2200 on 100 shares.
Again, no one knows who is buying these calls or why, but this could line up nicely with my theory that a chunk of the deadpool is expiring soon.
I don’t want to get anyone excited for MOASS. I’ve made bad predictions in the past. In the past I thought a MOASS would probably happen in March, but that was because I hadn’t connected the deadpool to everything. Don’t get hyped, but if deadpools are built with January and June expirations then it would make sense that MOASS could happen in January or June. It would explain why naked shorters almost got fucked in January 2021. If, they were able to survive and push a huge chunk of their deadpool out three years then June 2024 could be a rough time for them. I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee of a MOASS this June/July. I will say that I really would not want to be a naked shorter trying to roll a bad bet on GME this June.
Now this is all conjecture, but what if part of the deadpool needed to be rolled in January of 2021? Meaning the Hedge Fund needed to settle up with the Market Maker so they could finish closing the deadpool and keep the position rolling.
Now the Deadpool was the original pool of naked shares. The Market Maker pulled these naked shares out of ETFs and sent them to the Hedge Fund. Naked shorters usually want to keep the train going until the company is bankrupt so they’d usually keep closing and rolling the deadpool until that happens.
So, if you’ve followed along then January of 2021 could have been a pretty key date where a Market Maker may have needed to buy to settle a portion of the Retail Pool. These would be shares that the Hedge Fund naked shorted to retail through the Market Maker – insuring with futures and/or LEAPS. Then the Hedge Fund would have also needed to finish settling a portion of the Deadpool back to the Market Maker that’s about to expire. Again, these deadpool naked shares are the original naked shares pulled out of ETFs, probably three years ago. They’ve been using and abusing that naked share with retail for three years, probably a year or so at a time.
If the position blew up, say in January of 2021 then some Hedge Funds would have also blown the fuck up. First, the market maker would go to the market and try to buy shares. No shares. The market maker turns to the hedge fund and says, “sorry, no shares.” This is why the Hedge Fund bough “insurance” or hedged with his “buddy”. The Hedge Fund uses his contracts with the Market Maker to say, “here’s the cash, where are the shares?”
The Market Maker plays his reverse uno card: The original contracts he made with the Hedge Fund when the naked shares were created and says, “No! You!”
Hedge Fund: Fuck! There are no shares!
MM: Not my problem. Where are my shares?
Market: No shares.
The Market Maker has the Hedge Funds other positions liquidated until there’s enough cash to buy shares in the market. In asinine cases where this happens the market might allow the Market Maker to just turn off the buy button to save his sorry ass. This is considered by many to be complete bullshit.
The deadpool is closed/rolled. Possibly three years into the future. 2021 to 2024.
I think there might always be a Deadpool that then feeds the Retail Pool.
My other DD adds to the Deadpool theory and rehashes some of this, but the gist is that if you can create a deadpool with your “buddy” then could you just add a ton to the deadpool three years ago through the market to drive the price down and not add it to the retail pool. In other words, more naked shares that drive the price down, but they end up in your “friends” hands. He also want to drive the price down so you can worry less.
Adding to the deadpool in a really desperate time would make sense to me. Now if a bunch of shares were added to the deadpool three years ago and were split by the splividend then how does that all work? I think with a normal split, naked shares that are split in the deadpool could be settled with cash. Does the splividend change that?
In other words, if there were a bunch of naked shares shat into the deadpool three years ago. Then they were split, but delivery was delayed until expiration. And now they’re finally expiring. Can they be settled with cash or do real shares need to be bought to fulfill the long overdue splividend?
THE DRS POOL
https://preview.redd.it/x6uj1n24183d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=7887d54ea5fcaff20e6c65865826657c4b9c13cf

This just tries to simplify thing. The way the naked share is likely built results in it ending up in a deadpool between the naked shorters. They then pull naked shares from the deadpool and send them out into the market to naked short.
Good thing, you have recourse! Believe you’ve been sold a naked share?! Your only way to truly find out if you have a real share or not is by DRSing. Pull your shares into the DRS Pool. Now you can have peace of mind that it’s a real share.
ENDGAME
If I were a naked shorter facing a potential MOASS, what would I do?
  1. CHAOS & INFIGHTING – I would make sure I have as much control over the group as I could. If a MOASS pops off then I want to get hodlers fighting and not listening to one another. Confusion! Panic! Sell! I need their shares! I need hodlers to sell!
If I’m a naked shorter then I don’t want people to stay calm. I don’t want them learning about the market or sharing what they’ve learned. I want confusion.
  1. FEAR OF CALLS – Yes, I am pro options, but no I’m not telling you to go buy options. Options are risky, but if you know what you’re doing they can be very beneficial. In this scenario, I’m a naked shorter facing down a MOASS and I want people to sell shares. I really don’t want hodlers buying LONG CALLS or LEAPS. These are call options shot way out into the future, they’re risky, but less risky then short term options. Now, if I’m a naked shorter why don’t I want hodlers buying LONG CALLS?
  2. I could hedge that position by buying shares – if I’m super naked I probably won’t though. But if someone else sells the call they might hedge by buying shares.
  3. I want shares! I NEED shares! If I start smashing that buy button and no one sells then the price goes up until someone does. If everyone is hodling their shares and the price is going up then CALL options are getting more expensive. That means if hodlers have shares and calls they can sell the calls for profits and not sell me (the naked shorter) a single one of their shares. They can keep hodling, and/or use call profits to buy more shares and/or buy calls.
The price rises. Hodlers sell their calls for profits instead of their shares. I can’t find shares. The price rises. Hopefully, you get the picture.
HOW WOULD A MOASS START IN THIS SCENARIO?
Alright, we don’t know why a MOASS would pop off. It would probably be expiration dates and/or too many DRSd shares. But we still actually do know why: naked shorting, not enough shares, buy button smashed, price goes boom!
If it’s built the way I explained here, then MOASS means the Market Maker went to the market to buy some shares and there weren’t enough shares. But they like REALLY NEED SHARES. The price rises.
If it gets to expiration of some of the retail naked shares and they haven’t been rolled then the position starts unraveling.
MM: No shares.
HF: Contract. Shares now!
MM: No! You!
HF: Fuck.
MM: Margin Call
HF: I’m dying.
Let’s say this is what happened last time. The Hedge Funds blew up, if it happened again, would it now be a Market Maker and a bigger Market Maker stuck in this death loop?
MM: I have assumed the position.
lol
MM: Fuck, you know what I meant. I absorbed the HF’s toxic naked shorts!
So, if the Market Maker absorbed the naked short side of the play and is now the one who will be margin called. Who absorbed the Market Maker’s side? The one holding the “No! You!” reverse uno card this time around? If the Market Maker can’t survive like the Hedge Fund? Can the new guy survive like the MM did last time?
TL;DR
Some PhD papers by Welborn everyone needs to read like three years ago!
Options were used to naked short in the past – Welborn explains how.
ETFs likely used now – again, read Welborn. Please!
I layout how ETFs are likely pulled apart and shuffled around to create naked shares or what I like to call a deadpool. Dead shares that shouldn’t even exist.
Then the deadpool is pulled from to send naked shares into the market.
Again, if you want to learn how I got here I have a long DD from a year ago in my history OR preferably go read Welborn’s work.
The way this is all done means because of the way the naked shares are sent to market there could be weird price movement around triple-witching dates. March/April, June/July, SeptembeOctober, DecembeJanuary. Triple-witching dates are March, June, September, December, but I push them out a month because Market Makers get a little extra leeway that us common folk don’t get. Again, in my old DD I talk about why they could potentially have an extra month tacked onto their expirations.
Then because of the way the shares are originally pulled out of ETFs there could be weird movement around common expirations for LEAPS. January and June.
January and June could be extra special times where a batch of naked shares are expiring in the hands of retail and need to finish being rolled. While, also having a batch of naked shares originally created for the deadpool that need to finish being rolled.
I know this is all confusing, but basically I believe the rules allow a loophole for naked shorting through ETFs. I believe the way those naked shares are created makes a deadpool parked with naked shorters. When they want to match a buy on the market (retail buys a share) they then pull a naked share out of the deadpool and send it to retail. Naked shares in the deadpool hangout for about three years at a time meaning they need to be closed or rolled within 3 years. Naked shares to retail would likely be done with a 1 year expiration since retail usually churns through shares fast. You’re able to create a naked share and sell it to retail and buy it back and sell it and buy it several times before the naked share needs to be renewed (rolled – a new naked share created and the old one finally closed).
Using ETFs could also explain weird movements in other stocks. If you’re already pulling a bunch of different stocks out of the ETF (not just GME) then you could use some of those naked shares to naked short other stocks as well. You’d be selling to retail at different times so the price may not move in tandem around the triple-witching dates, but they could move similarly around deadpool expiration dates. Remember, to close the naked shares from the deadpool you need to buy shares and create the ETFs. January 2021 could be a time where you need to buy a bunch of different stocks to close/roll some of the deadpool. June 2024 could also be a time where naked shorters might need to buy a bunch of different stocks in order to finally create some ETFs. You might see some unrelated stocks suddenly increasing in price at the same time.
In my opinion, if a stock is heavily naked shorted, then a MOASS would kick off for 1 of 2 reasons.
  1. All or enough of the Real Shares are DRSd, and the naked short position is revealed in the market.
  2. Converging expiration dates cause naked shorters to buy large amounts of stock at one time mixed with strong retail buying. I think this may have been what happened in January 2021 – it’s a common expiration date for the derivatives used to naked short and there was strong retail buying. It’s possible something similar is happening in June of 2024 – a common expiration date and would be 3 years from 2021 allowing for LEAPS to be bought on the wider market. And this time around, there’s also still strong buy pressure, hodling, and DRSing.
This summer could be exciting, but it’s not a MOASS guarantee. I think DRSing and hodling is the only true guarantee to uncover naked shorting.
submitted by spacedebriss to DeepFuckingValue [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 21:07 SpiralSour FBNXT, Booking An Attitude/RA Star In The Modern Day - Part 2: MACHINE

AEW Collision, Mar 1, 2025:
Kurt Angle's TNT Championship Open Challenge
[Kurt Angle decides that to celebrate his Title win, he will be giving one unlucky soul a chance to be battered, broken, and rendered unable to keep competing. Whoever accepts this challenge is in store for a career ending slaughter, where Doc Samson will force them to retire.
Kurt waits in intense arrogance before a series of tranquil chords hit in quick succession, a sinister appetizer for what's to come, the words KATSUYORI SHIBATA fill the screen, and The Wrestler himself stomps to the ring.
Shibata - Angle, face to face.
Commentary is keen to mention Shibata is one person who definitely wouldn't feel any fear in the face of a threat like that.
"Katsuyori Shibata, well this is better than I imagined it would be. Now I get to finish what God couldn't and retire you for good."
And with those words, a declaration of war has been written and signed.
Shibata is able to match Angle for grappling early, keeping Kurt guessing with a series of holds. He gets hold of Kurt's arm at one point and is able to do some fair damage with an armbar. Kurt gets frustrated with Shibata who smiles at Kurt after avoiding his umpteenth submission attempt.
Angle slaps Shibata across the face, Shibata's head goes down, his eyes go cold. He throws a boot that rocks Angle in the face, Kurt goes to the corner where Shibata meets him with repeated forearms to the mouth. Shibata runs to the opposite corner, Angle meets him there with a charging shoulder thrust to the ribs.
Angle to the opposite corner, Shibata meets him with a pump kick, Shibata to the opposite corner, Angle charges in for a rolling axe kick, Shibata moves, Angle hits the turnbuckles, Angle upside down in the corner, Shibata to the other side of the ring, Katsuyori takes a moment to compose himself, focusing his energy before charging in for a corner dropkick crushing Angle into the turnbuckles.
Shibata pulls Angle up and gets a stiff forearm, Angle returns but his dominant arm is weak from the early attack by Shibata. The two begin to trade forearms, Shibata always seeming to strike quite a bit harder.
Angle gets a flurry of right and left forearms backing Shibata up, Angle runs the ropes and Shibata gets a spin kick to the midsection before kicking at the back of Angle's knee. Shibata begins to target the not fully healed knee of Kurt now, locking figure fours and bow and arrow submissions.
Angle is reeling on the ropes after the onslaught, Shibata runs the ropes and looks for a big boot to send Angle out, Angle catches the leg, hooks around the neck and suplexes Shibata to the floor. Angle dives off the apron crushing Shibata at ringside before hitting a belly to belly suplex into the barricade.
Angle shoves Shibata back in and attempts a Moonsault, Katsuyori avoids and Angle backs into the corner where Shibata gets a big boot. He grabs Angle by the back of his neck, sprinting to the opposite side of the ring and connecting with another big boot once he plants Angle there.
He grips Angle by the back of his neck and gets sixteen forearms to the ear and jaw area, he gets a running start to the other corner before circling back with another corner dropkick.
Angle rolls to the apron to create distance and Shibata follows him there. A flurry of forearms connect yet again before Shibata backs up and gets a running dropkick to the downed Angle against the steel post!
Shibata sends Kurt back in and gets a two count, Angle pulls himself up on the ropes and Shibata looks for a German, Angle grips onto the ropes for dear life, Shibata lands a straight axe kick to the targeted arm and Angle recoils, Shibata runs the ropes and Kurt gets a rolling axe kick. Angle looks into the camera, beads of sweat running down, a frenzied look in the face, black mouth-piece in.
He grabs Shibata up and gets a big belly to belly, he's on all fours at this point, stalking, waiting for his next opening. German Suplex, yet again, completes the trio by throwing Shibata onto his head. Shibata clutches at his neck, but Kurt won't stop. Fallaway Slam by Angle, bodyslam by Angle. Kurt climbs and lands a moonsault to the upper body and face of Shibata, crushing his skull against the canvas.
Shibata is able to answer the count, so Angle stalks a dazed Shibata. Angle Slam, Katsuyori on his feet, STO by Shibata. As Angle recovers from the STO, Shibata is able to get some breathing room from the series of throws he took. Both men get to their knees, head to head, eye to eye. They begin exchanging forearms once more, but this time Angle has a more even playing field due to the headache beginning to start for Shibata.
Angle begins mixing in uppercuts with his forearms, Shibata catches him on one of these with a backslide, Angle kicks out and Shibata greets him with a chop across the neck, spinning backfist, a trio of forearms. Angle stops reacting, and stares up at Shibata, he lets out a shout and Shibata goes for a fourth forearm. Angle ducks and pushes Shibata into the corner before dragging him out with a Rolling German Suplex planting Shibata on his head.
Shibata on his hands and knees, trying to catch his bearings and make sense of the fog in his vision. Kurt climbs and gets a picture perfect moonsault to the kneeling Shibata. Katsuyori barely gets the shoulder up, Angle stares in disbelief at the ref, leaving himself still pinned over Shibata.
Shibata latches onto the arm getting a Kimura applied on the wounded Angle. Angle writhes until he finally grasps the bottom rope to force separation. Shibata drags Angle into the center of the ring. He tees off on the shoulder blade with kicks, he slaps Angle in the back of the skull sending a cloud of perspiration flying.
Shibata calmly crosses his legs, sitting down across from the crawling Angle. Angle gets to his knees, the two begin chopping each other in the face. Shibata gets a knife edge chop to the ear of Angle, and Kurt gets enraged. He stands up and begins another forearm exchange with Shibata. Angle wins this time backing Shibata into the corner, repeated shoulder thrusts to the ribs follow, Shibata taking a seat.
Angle with a corner running dropkick of his own! Angle goes for it again, Shibata rises and looks for a pump kick, Angle catches him, hugs Shibata in and gets a fallaway belly to belly. Angle beckons Katsuyori up and runs the ropes, Shibata stops him with a leg lariat.
Angle crawls into the corner and Shibata starts repeatedly stepping on his head. Angle tries to crawl out of the ring, but gets paintbrushed with the boot of Shibata. He drowns Angle with scrapes of his boot, stomps and kicks. The referee eventually backs up Shibata.
Shibata brings Angle out of the corner with a snapmare takedown followed by a soccer kick to the spine. He runs the ropes for a penalty kick, which Kurt catches and turns into an Ankle Lock, with the leg trapped he pulls Shibata into a German Suplex.
Shibata on his hands and knees, Angle begins a waistlock and tries to bear hug Shibata on the canvas, Shibata crosses his legs in this position. Angle rolls Shibata, but he lands crossed legged again. This continues until Angle gets frustrated, Shibata begins elbowing Angle in the side of the face and Kurt releases his grip. He runs the ropes and Shibata gets him with a big boot followed by a German Suplex of his own.
Angle pops up and Shibata turns around into a rolling axe kick, Shibata doesn't fall, pump kick by Shibata. Shibata from the corner to a stunned Angle, big boot, Angle avoids, German Suplex by Kurt. He maintains waist control and pulls Shibata up, Shibata begins elbowing Angle to force release. Angle grips the wrist to prevent Shibata from creating distance.
Shibata kicks him in his bad arm, and Angle lets go. He oblique kicks him in his knee before kicking away at the head of Angle. Angle desperately headbutts Shibata in the chest, igniting something in Katsuyori. Shibata turns around, takes a deep breath, turns to Angle and refuses to do what he desperately wants to, thinking of his health.
He forearms Angle down to the mat and gets an octopus hold applied, Angle scrambles to the ropes, fighting out. Penalty Kick by Shibata. Angle kicks out and Shibata locks a sleeper. A focused trance look on the face of Katsuyori as he strangles Angle.
Kurt grips the ropes to force the break, Shibata clubs the arms away, grips back on, sleeper suplex. Shibata with a spinning backfist, Angle catches the wrist, he grips the other wrist, backslide, Shibata rolls through, clothesline by Angle, ducked, Shibata ties him up in position. He spins Angle out, he readies his hand, he connects.
BitchMaker to Angle.
Kurt collapses and Shibata takes his time to catch his breath and focus up, all that focus goes into repeated, poised strikes to the shoulder, underarm and elbow of the damaged Angle. Angle grips onto the wrist to try and drag his way up, Shibata kicks his grip away. Shibata goes to run the ropes, but Angle grips onto the wrist again, avoids a clothesline attempt, traps both arms. Straight-Jacket Suplex on Shibata.
All of the weight coming down on his head and neck. Angle pulls up Shibata, German Suplex #1, Shibata begins elbowing Angle in the ear, German Suplex #2, Shibata still driving his elbow into the ear of Angle, Release German Suplex. Shibata lays motionless, blood begins trickling out of the ear of Angle, physical evidence of the desperation Shibata felt.
Angle brushes off the doctor's attempts to check on him, Kurt with an Angle Slam, but Shibata digging into the wound on the ear, Angle loses his balance, Shibata on his feet. Shibata hooks on from behind, trapping Angle's arm.
するか死ぬか
He spins Angle out, rainmaker style and closes the gap with a sickening headbutt to Kurt. Kurt collapses, but so does Shibata. He lays exhausted, head throbbing. Finally after over a minute, he musters the strength to crawl to the cover.
One, Two, Kurt kicks out. Kurt rises before Shibata who is kneeling, clutching his head. Angle pulls him up for a German, but Shibata refuses to go, clutching the back of his head and shaking his head. It's not an act of defiance or resilience, this is a man trying to stay alive.
Angle, despite having animalistic tendencies, has respect for Shibata after tonight and he shows mercy. He sends Shibata into the ropes chest first and when Katsuyori rebounds, he's caught with an Angle Slam. A cover by Kurt over the defenseless Shibata leads to one simple phrase, but one that intensifies the fullness in Shibata's head.
'And Still.']
Kurt Angle (c) def Katsuyori Shibata to retain the TNT Championship
AEW Big Business Dynamite, Mar 19, 2025:
Kota Ibushi vs Kurt Angle (c), TNT Championship
[Shortly after defeating Shibata in the hardest hitting match of Angle's career, he begins to lash out at the company that gave him his first big break. New Japan.
He states that he can work circles around any NJPW darling that think they're special because they had a few flashy matches in a company nobody watches.
This summons Kota Ibushi, vignettes have been airing teasing his return, but he finally appears coming face to face with Angle. The following week is Big Business and the bout is on.
Ibushi's fluid striking is able to pause Angle, Kurt attempts to make up for the strike deficit with suplexes, but Kota is incredibly spry and able to land safely on most everything Angle throws at him.
Ibushi with a series of strikes ending in a roundhouse, Angle ducks, German Suplex, Ibushi lands on his feet. Dropkick by Kota sends Kurt to the floor. Ibushi with a Triangle Moonsault to ringside, leveling Kurt.
Ibushi sends Kurt back in and goes for a Last Ride, Angle escapes and lands a German Suplex to Ibushi. Kurt begins to climb the turnbuckles, but Ibushi gets up and powerbombs Kurt from the middle turnbuckle, Angle kicks out, and Ibushi flips him onto his knees for a Kamigoye!
Angle catches the knee, and gets an Ankle Lock applied. Ibushi rolls free and sends Angle into the corner. Knee blast in the corner by Kota. He runs the ropes and Angle catches him with a belly to belly over the top rope.
Kurt climbs for a Moonsault to ringside, Ibushi avoids. Ibushi charges into the ring, Triangle Moon- Angle leaps onto the apron and German Suplexes Kota on to the apron, Ibushi's neck bouncing as he cadcades to the floor.
Angle quickly gets Kota back in, and attacks the ankle, Kota struggles, half conscious. He finally makes it to the ropes and is able to get back to his feet. He unloads with palm strikes and a slap to the face of Angle. Kurt looks for a clothesline, Kota ducks and gets a Pele Kick.
Ibushi pulls Kurt up for a Phoenix-Plex, Angle lands on his feet, not allowing Kota to drive his neck into the canvas. Angle Slam connects, and with that, Kurt has vanquished another NJPW legend.]
Kurt Angle (c) def Kota Ibushi to retain the TNT Championship
[Kurt grabs a microphone and begins berating Ibushi. He says this proves it, all those New Japan darlings that these marks worship, they're old, they're broken down, and they are no match for a Wrestling Machine.
Angle looks to target Ibushi again, getting a chair in hand, when all of a sudden Battle Cry hits. Kenny Omega storms the ring, avoiding a chair shot before hitting a V-Trigger sending the chair into Angle's face. Kurt retreats as Omega helps Ibushi up and Kurt's next challenge becomes increasingly clear, arguably the greatest NJPW wrestler of all time, Kenny Omega.]
AEW Dynasty, Apr 12, 2025:
Kenny Omega vs Kurt Angle (c), TNT Championship
[In the weeks leading up to Dynasty, we get some good build for this match including Angle and Hobbs vs Golden Lovers in which Omega pinned Hobbs for his team, as well as a segment in which Kenny and Kurt come face to face.
Kenny in full Terminator gear, he tells Kurt that he's been a big fish in a small pond until now, and that he should be careful not to forget who the original wrestling machine is.
When it comes bell time, Angle quickly recognizes Omega as the most pure athlete he's faced to date. The speed, the intensity, the pressure. Omega brings all of it in his first title match since returning late last year to combat The New Elite.
Kenny comes charging for a corner clothesline, but is caught by Angle who looks for a T-Bone Suplex into the turnbuckles, Omega with a DDT reversal. Angle rolls out and Omega begins drumming up the Terminator rhythm. Tope Con Hilo clears Angle at ringside.
Omega goes to send Kurt back in, but stops on the apron, joining Kurt there. The margin for error is thin as Omega locks the arms and gets a Snap Dragon Suplex across the thinly padded steel.
Kurt's neck issues start to become apparent here as he clutches at it. Omega goes to Irish Whip Angle into the barricade, but the momentum is reversed and Kenny is sent rocketing towards it. He promptly hops onto it and executes a Moonsault from the barricade.
Angle catches him and delivers him into the steel post, face first. Kurt proceeds to climb to the middle turnbuckle and hit a Moonsault to the downed Omega at ringside. Angle sends Kenny back in and begins his repeated German Suplexes, on the third, Omega lands on his feet and boots Angle into the turnbuckles harshly, Kurt exploding against the corner.
Kenny gets Kurt up now for One Winged Angel, Kurt rolls forward into a pinfall, Kenny kicks out and Kurt comes in with a standing 450 knee drop across the surgically repaired abdomen of Omega. Kurt now focuses up and goes after the leg, applying an Ankle Lock. Omega kicks free and slips behind Angle for a Kotaro Krusher.
Angle kicks out and Omega is left gripping his ribs as he pulls Angle up. He gets Angle on his shoulders, wincing as he does so. Rolling driver followed by a Springboard Moonsault on Angle. Kenny holds his midsection before getting Kurt up in OWA position once more.
Kurt struggles so Omega shifts him to a German Suplex, but Angle rolls into a pinfall. Omega kicks out, however, and Kurt is hot on his trail. A crossbody by Kurt takes both men to the outside.
Kurt pulls Kenny up for an Angle Slam against the steel post. Omega writhes in pain as Angle lets out a dominant cry. Kurt sets Kenny up top, but Omega fights back with wristbone strikes, sending Angle to the canvas. Kurt fires up, springing to the top turnbuckle for an Avalanche Belly To Belly, he follows through, but Omega lands on his feet!
Angle didn't see it and gets up to gloat, believing the cheers are for him. Omega gets a frenzied look in the eyes and scales to the top rope. Missile Dropkick to the back of Angle's skull.
Angel crawls to the ropes, drool leaking from his lax jaw. Omega runs the ropes for a V-Trigger against the ropes. He then exits the ring breaking out a steel chair, the ref attempts to stop him but Omega brushes him off. He opens it and sets it in the center of the ring.
Step-Stool V-Trigger! Omega covers for a near fall, and goes into the corner, talking to himself and trying to figure out how to put Angle down. Kurt recovers and tries to charge in, Omega rolls off the back and attempts a rana as Kurt comes over. Kurt with an abrupt sit-out powerbomb reversal before shoving Omega out of the ring.
Angle from the apron with a Somersault Plancha. Kurt sends Omega back in and tries for the Angle Slam, Omega with an arm drag reversal before sliding behind Kurt for a Snap Dragon into the turnbuckles. Omega runs into the opposite corner and closes in with a V-Trigger against the turnbuckles.
He pulls Angle up out of the corner and sticks a Poisonrana. Angle is able to barely survive the count. Omega in disbelief takes Angle to the top, he's thinking Avalanche OWA. Angle scrambles out and lands an Avalanche Angle Slam!
Omega somehow kicks out, and Kurt is beside himself. He goes to the top rope, a rare Frog-Splash from Angle, Omega moves, Kurt kisses the mat. V-Trigger to the back of the head, Omega pulls Kurt up, One Winged Angel connects.
Omega has ended the TNT Title reign of Kurt Angle, avenged the good name of NJPW and become a Grand Slam Champion in AEW.]
Kenny Omega def Kurt Angle (c) to win the TNT Championship
Kurt disappears for a while after this, but when vignettes begin airing detailing Angle's journey back, he's spotted being coached by one man in particular. One of the greatest technical wrestlers of all time, in Dean Malenko.
AEW Double Or Nothing, May 24, 2025:
Kurt Angle w/ Dean Malenko vs PAC
[Angle's first match back takes place two weeks prior to this one when he and Hobbs take on The Lucha Brothers. A victory for Angle and Hobbs isn't enough as Kurt attacks Fénix after the bell, refusing to release the Ankle Lock. Malenko eggs him on, telling him to break Fénix's leg.
This brings out PAC, who comes to the rescue of his long time friend and stablemate. He gets in Angle's face and shows no intimidation as he backs Kurt up. With Double Or Nothing around the corner, Angle believes PAC will make for an excellent first victim on his way to the top of the food chain.
Angle focuses more on his submission work under the advice of Malenko, he targets the legs making it hard for PAC to execute his aerial maneuvers. PAC is able to trap Angle in the Rings Of Saturn late, but Angle finds his way out, and gets a grip on the ankle. Moments later, PAC is tapping out.]
Kurt Angle def PAC
AEW Fight For The Fallen, Jun 28, 2025
Kurt Angle w/ Dean Malenko vs Will Ospreay (c), AEW World Heavyweight Championship
[Following his dominant victory over PAC, Angle sets his sights on the top of the mountain and the man standing at the peak of it. Ospreay has become unanimously agreed upon as probably the best wrestler on the planet. Angle looks to disprove this theory, and take care of another NJPW castaway.
Ospreay has Angle vulnerable and closes in for Essex Destroyer, Angle reverses with a Northern Lights and rolls through scooping Ospreay up for a deadlift powerbomb. Ospreay lands a rana reversal for a two count, before looking for Os-Cutter, Angle catches him and hits a Lawn Dart, vaulting Ospreay into the middle turnbuckle.
He begins his trio of Germans, Ospreay landing on his feet from the third and getting a superkick on Kurt. An Os-Cutter follows for a near-fall. Ospreay goes to the far corner, and charges in for Hidden Blade. Angle ducks and gets his third German Suplex.
He sets up for an Angle Slam, but Ospreay snags an arm drag reversal. Vertical dropkick by Ospreay who lands on his feet, enziguri connects, Ospreay with a handspring but caught by Angle with a German.
Ospreay goes to the outside and Kurt goes up top for a Moonsault to the floor, swing and a miss and Ospreay climbs. Corkscrew Moonsault by Ospreay, he sends Angle back in. Os-Cutter catches Angle flush. Ospreay from across the ring now, Hidden Blade connects!
Three seconds later, and Angle's dreams of being a World Heavyweight Champion are dashed by the best in the world...for now.]
Will Ospreay (c) def Kurt Angle to retain the AEW World Heavyweight Championship
AEW All In, Aug 23, 2025:
Adam Copeland & Christian Cage (c) vs Kurt Angle & Powerhouse Hobbs w/ Dean Malenko, AEW Tag Team Championships
[Following a devastating loss to Ospreay, Angle refocuses his tag team efforts alongside Hobbs. With Copeland and Christian having made amends and gone on to capture the AEW Tag Team Titles, Angle and Hobbs are eager to knock the legendary tag team off the throne.
Copeland has Angle in position for a Spear after a prolonged period of control when Kurt reverses it into an inside cradle for a near fall. Angle creates distance and tags out to Hobbs who attempts to overpower the historic duo, but the tag team experience is too much for Hobbs and as he is inevitably defeated, Angle experiences yet another setback.]
Adam Copeland & Christian Cage (c) def Kurt Angle & Powerhouse Hobbs to retain the AEW Tag Team Championships
AEW All Out, Sep 6, 2025:
Bryan Danielson vs Kurt Angle w/ Dean Malenko
[Just two weeks removed from a victory over long time rival, Nigel McGuiness, Danielson is riding high and wants the most intense competition possible for All Out.
Naturally, this attracts Kurt Angle, a man who has never been submitted, yet has an incredible string of submission victories. He challenges Danielson's claims to be the best technical wrestler in the world, and promises to tap out The Dragon.
Throughout the dream contest, Angle targets and does significant damage to the knee and ankle of Bryan. Bryan attempts to apply similar limb targeting to the previously injured arm of Angle. With both men's history of neck issues, there's plenty of nasty envelope pushes in that department as well.
Bryan looks for a Busaiku Knee late when Angle catches him and gets a powerbomb reversal, he then applies a Boston Crab, squeezing the Achilles Tendon of Danielson. Bryan is able to edge to his back and roll Angle into a pin.
Kurt kicks out, and Danielson lands a roundhouse to a kneeling Angle, leaving him lamenting himself after he feels the effect on his leg. He pulls Angle up for a Dragon Suplex, but Angle breaks the grip and gets a Snapmare Takedown.
Bryan lands on his feet and begins blistering Angle with repeated kicks to the chest, wincing after every one. He finally backs up and tries for the roundhouse, but Kurt catches him in an Ankle Lock.
Kurt twists away at the squirming Danielson, who is able to turn just enough to start landing up-kicks to the bad shoulder of Angle. Danielson then gets a Triangle, pulling Angle in to the submission.
He traps the bad arm and begins striking away at the shoulder socket with elbows. Angle powers up, lifting Danielson before dumping him into the turnbuckles, crumpling Bryan into the corner.
Angle whips Bryan into the corner and he performs a Springboard Moonsault, landing on his bad ankle. Kurt slithers in and cinches an Ankle Lock in yet again. Bryan rolls out and gets a LeBell Lock applied, the bad arm of Angle angled awkwardly. Kurt makes the ropes and Bryan fires up into the corner.
He beckons Kurt up and closes the distance with a Busaiku Knee, Angle ducks, Bryan's bad knee hits the top turnbuckle! Angle Slam connects!
Kurt covers and in doing so obtains the single biggest victory of his career so far. An incredible effort from both men, and an incredible step forward for Kurt Angle.]
Kurt Angle def Bryan Danielson
AEW WrestleDream, Oct 11, 2025:
Bryan Danielson vs Kurt Angle w/ Dean Malenko vs Zack Sabre Jr., Ultimate Submission
[A victory over Bryan Danielson should have Kurt on cloud nine, but he can't help feel disappointed that he didn't deliver on his promise. He didn't tap Bryan out. He challenges Danielson, one more match, a thirty minute timer, no pinfalls, most submissions wins.
Rather than Danielson, it's NJPW's resident technical wizard, Zack Sabre Jr. who answers the call. He states that him and Angle have unfinished business. In the G1 Climax last year, Zack had Angle on the brink of submission but just as Kurt was about to give in, his body gave out and he passed out instead.
Zack has kept that goal in the back of his head since, to make the unsubmittable Kurt Angle tap out. Kurt says that he has great respect for Sabre Jr. but right now he is focused on Danielson.
Bryan enters and states a solution, a triple threat match, under Angle's proposed rules of course, to finally determine who the best technical wrestler in the world is.
Match time arrives and all three men feel the pressure in the air. Three of the most technically gifted pro wrestlers of all time engaged in a war for a chance to finally be crowned the undisputed king of tapping people out.
Twenty five minutes of pure grappling glory elapse, and despite some close calls, none of the three competitors have submitted. With five minutes remaining, all three men are volatile in their pursuit to finally get a point.
Bryan looks for a diving knee strike, when Kurt catches him and cinches an Ankle Lock. Danielson rolls forward and Zack leaps onto the shoulders of Kurt, ranas him to the canvas and locks a mounting triangle.
Bryan with a roundhouse to Zack, pulling him off of Kurt, Bryan proceeds to lock Cattle Mutilation on Sabre who kicks and struggles to survive the maneuver.
Kurt out of nowhere with a Moonsault to Danielson! The grip on Sabre Jr. released, Zack rolls out of the ring. Kurt focuses on Danielson, landing his trio of German Suplexes, Bryan on his feet during the third attempt.
Busaiku Knee, Kurt ducks just enough to catch Bryan across his shoulders. Torture Rack applied on Danielson, bending Bryan over his shoulders. Bryan shifts off the shoulders and locks a Guillotine on Angle, trying to cut off blood flow to the brain.
Angle attempts to reverse with a Northern Lights, but Bryan lands on his feet and maintains grip, forming a bridging guillotine. Zack slithers in, kicking Bryan in the knee and causing Danielson to kneel while keeping the Guillotine applied.
Zack gets a Triangle on Bryan while Bryan has a reverse Guillotine on Kurt, after a few moments, Bryan has to cut his losses with Kurt and try to escape Sabre's grip.
He inches free of the Triangle, getting grip on the legs for a Boston Crab. He tucks the legs and bridges back for a modified Muta Lock. He gives up and applies a seated Guillotine. No matter what Bryan does, Sabre fights on, less than a minute remains when Bryan locks the LeBell Lock.
He drives his knuckles into the nose of Sabre, eventually garnering color, as the crimson begins to leak into his mouth. Danielson covers the mouth and nose with his hands, seconds remain when Kurt rushes in to save the match.
Zack Sabre Jr. is drowning in his own blood.
Three, Two, Sabre Jr. taps!
With one second on the clock, Danielson forces a submission, Kurt was fingertips away from saving the match-up. Sabre Jr. is released and inhales big, gulping breathe, bile and blood leaking from his mouth. Angle gets to his feet and approaches Danielson.
A handshake follows as Bryan Danielson is acknowledged as the Ultimate Submission Master in one of the greatest displays of technical wrestling ever.]
Bryan Danielson def Kurt Angle & Zack Sabre Jr. in Ultimate Submission
What isn't made clear at the time is that this actually serves as Kurt Angle's AEW farewell. He bids farewell to Malenko, telling him to watch over Hobbs for him and vice versa with Hobbs. Less than a month later, his contract expires and he opts not to resign. Questions begin to flare up about where Kurt Angle may turn up next, rumors even begin to circulate that he may be done with professional wrestling for the foreseeable future.
Remember that thing about death and taxes?
WWE Royal Rumble, Jan 31, 2026:
[The Royal Rumble arrives, and as with any given Rumble, who knows what surprises may be in store?
The Men's Rumble match is occuring when entry number twenty-seven is about to be revealed. Medal sounds and the roof comes off of Kaseya Center as the words KURT ANGLE pan across the titantron. The Olympic Hero has arrived.
Angle racks up a couple of eliminations, tossing Johnny Gargano after a fun sequence and Shinsuke Nakamura after an exchange of strikes. Angle comes face to face with AJ Styles who engages in a staredown with The Wrestling Machine.
Before they can lock up, both men are ambushed by other participants, delaying the dream match. Kurt makes it to the final six, but runs into a brick wall when he attempts to eliminate Bron Breakker.
A back and forth of control ends with Breakker on top, landing a belly to belly over the top rope to eliminate Kurt Angle.]
SmackDown, Feb 6, 2026:
John Cena's Open Challenge
[Cena, entering the twilight of his career, goes back to his old open challenge routine, wanting to face as many young superstars as he can before he calls it a career.
His first of these challenges is answered by Kurt Angle himself, who comes face to face with the established Cena. In just his second WWE match, Angle wants to lock up with the GOAT.
Cena, perplexed and expecting a talent on the roster that he was familiar with to appear, poses a reasonable question.
"Who in the hell are you?"
'I'm Kurt Angle'
"Kurt Angle, huh? Tell me, what is the one quality that you possess that makes you think you can come out here and challenge the very best?"
Angle pauses, somehow, he knows exactly what to say.
'Ruthless Aggression.'
Angle clocks Cena and the bell rings, Angle's WWE debut and he has a chance to show that ruthless aggression against one of the most reputable names in wrestling history.
Cena starts out the contest believing Angle will be an easy foe and taking time to pander to the audience. It doesn't take long though for Kurt to gain his respect with a surprise German Suplex while Cena is standing on the middle turnbuckle.
Angle begins to unload with a variety of kick variations and suplexes, wobbling Cena. Cena avoids a Moonsault and lands a Code Red for a near fall.
He beckons Angle up for an Attitude Adjustment, and Angle shifts off the shoulders to begin his trio of German Suplexes. He bridge pins on the third and Cena muscles out.
Angle looks for an Ankle Lock, but Cena rolls free. Attitude Adjustment positioning, Angle lands on his feet. Another German Suplex connects and Angle rolls through, lifting Cena into an emphatic Angle Slam.
Cena narrowly manages to kick out. Angle sizes Cena up for one more Angle Slam, Cena escapes to his feet, Attitude Adjustment, Angle shifts into a roll-up on Cena.
Three seconds later, and Angle has defeated the 16x World Champion in his WWE debut. A shocked Cena watches as Angle takes his place as a hot commodity in WWE.]
Kurt Angle def John Cena
It's not long after this that Kurt finds himself some teammates. During a bout with Akira Tozawa and Apollo Crews of WorldWide, the team of Cedric Alexander and Damon Kemp receive some unexpected assistance from Kurt Angle.
Following the bout, Angle approaches Alexander and Kemp, shortly thereafter, forming Team Angle.
WWE WrestleMania 42 - Night 1, Apr 11, 2026:
AJ Styles vs Kurt Angle
[Ever since their unsatisfying face off at the Royal Rumble, fans and these two alike have been eager to get a proper match made. Angle wants a legacy fight for WrestleMania, another name to engrave on his record.
AJ Styles refuses to be viewed as someone to be put out to pasture and tells Angle to bring his intensity, bring his intelligence, bring his integrity and then come to terms with the fact that it still won't be enough.
Angle tries for an Angle Slam after Styles misses a Springboard 450, Styles maneuvers his way over and into Styles Clash position only for Angle to grip the ankle and turn it into an Ankle Lock.
Styles writhes and tries to make the ropes, but Angle drags him back into the center of the ring and sits down into a knee bar - ankle lock fusion forcing Styles to submit to The Wrestling Machine.]
Kurt Angle def AJ Styles
WWE Backlash, May 23, 2026:
Cody Rhodes vs Kurt Angle
[Following his massive victory over AJ Styles at WrestleMania, Angle and his posse set their sights on another established vet, Cody Rhodes.
Angle tells Rhodes that Kurt is everything Cody has claimed to be, at Backlash he'll expose Cody as a fraud and show him who the true American Nightmare is.
It's a hotly contested affair with Cody, less than a year removed from his World Title run, putting Kurt to the test. Cody is in the driver's seat when a ref bump leads Cedric and Kemp to interfere, Kemp is neutralized before Cedric inadvertently lays Angle out.
Cross Rhodes to Cedric, and another one to Kurt and Rhodes has pinned The Olympic Hero.]
Cody Rhodes def Kurt Angle
WWE King & Queen Of The Ring, Jun 27, 2026:
Damian Priest vs Kurt Angle
[Kurt enters into the King Of The Ring tournament following his loss to Rhodes, but not before kicking Cedric out of Team Angle. He's replaced by a man Angle knows well, the debuting Josh Alexander.
While Josh and Kemp pick up the tag team titles, Angle focuses in on the tournament. He is able to defeat Rey Mysterio in the first round, Dragon Lee in the second, Pete Dunne in the quarters, and Cedric in the semis.
Damian, meanwhile wins the RAW bracket and the finals are set. The Punisher vs The Wrestling Machine.
In a vein very similar to what an Angle/Undertaker match looks like, Priest muscles around Angle, only for Kurt to surprise him with his own strength. Angle works on the leg, rendering Priest's kicking ability useless and kneading him for the eventual Ankle Lock.
Damian looks for Razor's Edge, powering through the pain in his leg. As he chucks Angle, Kurt reverses with a huracanrana taking Priest off guard. Angle begins his trio of Germans, on the third attempt, Priest maneuvers free and gets a Thunder Clap on Angle.
He sets up for The Reckoning, but Angle hits a Southern Lights Suplex, sending Priest forward to the canvas. Angle gets an Angle Slam for a near-fall.
A Moonsault follows, but Priest gets a grip across the throat as Kurt comes down. He lands South Of Heaven for a close two count. Damian sizes up Kurt from across the ring.
Tornado Kick, intercepted, Kurt locks onto the ankle! Priest tries to roll out, kick Kurt away, but Angle is relentless and vice grips around the ankle, torturing Damian.
Priest eventually passes out from the pain, giving Angle a victory, albeit one he's only slightly satisfied with. Regardless of how, Kurt has won King Of The Ring and will now main event SummerSlam for the World Heavyweight Championship.]
Kurt Angle def Damian Priest
WWE Battleground, Jul 25, 2026:
Brock Lesnar vs Kurt Angle
[Brock, having returned in the Royal Rumble earlier in the year and announcing a retirement tour, culminating at SummerSlam in his hometown, sets his sights on Kurt Angle.
Kurt, one month away from main eventing SummerSlam, accepts Brock's challenge, dubbing him one more legend Kurt can send packing.
The match is evidently very intense with Brock showing his trademark dominance and Angle impressing with bursts of strength and out-grappling Lesnar.
Towards the climax of the match, both men begin exchanging German Suplexes. Brock eventually decides to do the continuous trio ala Kurt. Angle lands on his feet on the third attempt and rolls Brock into a deadlift German Suplex.
Kurt scales for a Moonsault, but Brock catches him in mid-air for an F-5, Kurt scrambles free and gets an Ankle Lock applied. Brock is able to fight out, applying a Kimura Lock. Kurt makes it to the ropes and Brock gets fed up.
Lesnar goes to the top turnbuckle for the first time in decades and attempts a Shooting Star Press. Kurt moves and Lesnar eats canvas, Angle immediately jumps onto the leg of Brock applying an agonizing Ankle Lock.
After minutes of Kurt's snake-like refusal to release his grip, he does what few have ever been able to do and makes The Beast tap out. After the bout, Brock shakes the hand of Kurt Angle and Kurt looks ahead to his titanic Heavyweight Title opportunity.]
Kurt Angle def Brock Lesnar
As Angle approaches war at SummerSlam, he decides that Team Angle needs an advisor. Someone that can guide them to their ultimate goal of every member holding gold. He says for three of the best technical wrestlers in the world, their advisor must be of a similar status.
He enlists none other than The Excellence Of Execution, The Hitman is in Team Angle. Bret coaches Kurt in the lead-up to SummerSlam, giving him tips and reviewing old tapes showing how he won his Titles.
CONT. In Comments
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2024.05.28 19:40 Harpokiller 'Fiù 's tusa?' (Hirk’s death and Crimson Paragon fight 2/2)

/uw This is a continuation of the first post which I will tag in the comments, once again I apologise in advance for length as well.
Hirk: “I offer you one chance to kill yourself. After that I might just have to do it for you.”
Hirks words are serious and cold, behind every word there is the threat that this is a mercy and it refused, he will do it himself.
Jean: “fine.” Jean incinerates herself, until not even ash remains.
After Jean dies an announcement is made shortly after over the speakers.
"ALL IMMORTALITY SAFEGUARDS HAVE BEEN LIFTED."
Safi: “You'll have to earn that my friend.”
Maximilian slowly walks closer to Hirk. “Make me.”
there's not a hint of regret in his eyes. He wants Hirk to deliver the blow.
Hirk’s arm in a single moment moves and connects to Maximilians stomach, ribs break but not killed only sent into a nearby wall.
“Poor choice.”
Hirk is fuelled by pure rage in his voice. He fully blocks the door.
Maximilian: “Tsk. Didn't think I'd be dueling my best man before the wedding.”
After he says this he spits out some blood, still confident and stubborn in his belief even after taking a hit from the Demi-Giant.
Nhak: “If you can kill me…”
“Then I implore you to do so…”
He spreads his arms and wings acceptingly… as if begging…
“I beg you to make it hurt.”
Hirk attempts to throw a needle of thing rock through Nhaks eye hole in his helmet with a flick of his wrist.
Parts of it break on the edges of his eyehole in his armour as he makes no attempt to stop it overrun by his guilt. There is now a stone needle poking through his helm not fully certain where it hit under that golden helm.
Aoi: “I think you should calm down, boy.” Aoi then proceeds to try to grab Hirk’s arm
Hirk shrugs off the attempt and before any further can be made someone intervenes.
Noticing direct conflict starting to break out, there is barely a blur as Hirk notices Gonkgar in front of him. Even as tall as Hirk is, Gonkgar stares down at him. He tries to grab Hirk by both of his wrists, making sure to not hurt him.
Hirk flicks his hands nudging them away, he is focused on his duty.
Zeroth: :Shutting down all defense systems:
Elize the Siren starts singing her song, making Hirk's mind filled with discord.
Edjar(?): "HIRK! STAND DOWN! THE GODS HAVE SPOKEN. I WAS GRANTED DIVINE RIGHT TO OVERSEE TRIAL AND EXECUTION!"
Rachnia: “I am sorry, Hirk. Spirit whisper.”
She proceeds to shoot out an ethereal purple string enchanted with domination magic as it begins to work its way up his nervous system through his spine to his brain and then soul.
“No-one. and I mean. NOONE. Hurts Max in front of me. Not even you Hirk!”
The lights outside all go dark, and Zeroth switches to Emergency power mode.
Hirk is glowing with the erratic wild rays of fire, emitting a partially dim light from under his skin.
Hirk resists the attempt of domination against his mind, but his mental fortitude built of hatred and fire is being chipped away by it.
“Stand back. Or else.”
Gonkgar is pushed away for the moment, at first only attempting to stop Hirk. But now sees another opportunity
"Okay. Me see how it go."
Gonkgar pulls a fist back and punches immediately, a shockwave of air from the sheer speed of his punch. He aims for Hirk's chest.
The punch connects, there is a loud sound of bones cracking and skin being heavily bruised and bloodied. But he still stands in the doorframe refusing to move, his body will break before he does.
A fourth voice joins the amalgation that is Ejdar right now, high and commanding, but compassionate.
"My Executioner will end you if you lay another hand on anyone here. You will be put RIGHT BACK WHERE YOU CAME FROM!"
Safi: “That will not be necessary.”
Ejder looks over at Safi. His darkened eye turns to the same silvery gold as the other. He gives Safi a respectful nod. There's a good chance that Ejder himself is not fully in control.
Lady Fortuna: “By Fate's weave... Your continued charge... Ends.”
Kyoko appears from behind Hirk after hearing the commotion
“What's going on here?”
Nhak with a gigantic needle sticking through his ghostly helm Immediately tackles Kyoko to the ground and out if the way of any fighting… shielding the two of them with his spectral wings…
Eliza siren's song is that of pain and suffering, one that was often heard at sea to crash ships. Despite the noises of fire dancing inside Hirk’s mind the song still acts as a wind disrupting the fire even if it is not fully quelled
the soulfire burns bright, Ali’s scars are almost at full brightness already. “You do not, get to touch him again.”
She punches Hirk straight in the chest at full force.
Hirk feels the second blow to his chest, there is not a noise of cracking this time as it can be assumed there was nothing left to crack as his skin goes loose from the muscles being pulverised by both attacks he’s took head on. Having to rely on his arms holding him upright by grasping at the doorframe to not fall limp. There is no response still.
Max: “Hirk. Do not. Try to hit me again.” He takes a swig from a regenerative brew.
Safi: “You asked him to do it”
Max: “Eh, expected better from my best man than to actually go through with this foolish move.”
Hirk finally after catching his thoughts which he lost from the beating he took by only two punches and Rachnia’s attempt to dominate his mind finally replied to Edjar(?), speaking less from the air in him and more the crackling of the fire inside.
“Where I came from? My home is gone. The very realm burned to ash. There is nothing left. I have nowhere to go back to.”
It is clear Hirk is not himself or he is now his true self which he hide under a scarf, sweater and broken promises. He makes one mutter afterwords with his breath this time rather than his fire to Aoi.
“Go. I do not wish to kill you, you were not involved.*
Aoi: “You really fucking think... I'm going to let you kill Max?”
Sarah: “Yeah, how about fucking no.”
Rachnia: “Over my cold, dead, body.”
there is a eattling of a snakes tail grows louder, an ever growing sense of foreboding.
"HIRK" Jean's voice booms loudly throughout the entire area. "IF YOU THINK THAT ANYONE SHOULD DIE HERE, COME AT ME! I DESERVE IT MORE THAN ANYONE IN FUCKING EXISTENCE!"
She is holding both Tartarus's and 0's cores in her hands
Hirk does not respond. But there is a hint of hesitation in his eyes.
Jean: "I TORTURED THAT BASTARD FOR 10 QUADRILLION YEARS. I'D SAY THAT MAKES ME THE WORST ONE HERE!"
A flaming knife gets thrown at Jean by Hirk, he aims directly for the heart hoping to make it quick as a mercy.
Ari: “Stop this needless fighting, this isn't going solve anything”
Ari attempts to block the knife with vines but the few that reach it in time are cut through and scared by charred marks
Jean takes the knife square in her chest. Without the immortality safeguards in place, her shards fall helplessly to the ground
Steam appears from Hirk’s eyes, he does not stop his savage duty despite clear grief at his own actions.
Gonkgar: "Only thing that matter is no one else hurt."
Gonkgar clenches both of his fists. He goes to grab Hirk's arms, and there's a glint that sparks in his eyes.
A glint that emerges and starts to travel down his body. Different from his Ultra Instinct... Stranger, perhaps. Nhak recognizes it as a modicum of a power Gonkgar once held. The juggernaut power, gifted by the God-Slaver, that made it impossible to stop Gonkgar's advance.
At that, he attempts to start pushing Hirk out of the doorway.
Ari begins to cause vines to grow around everyone except Gonkgar.
Cerne pointers her blade straight at Hirk, her daggers fly above her head.
“Not, a, step, closer, to, Max.”
Ejdar(?) shouts over to Ari after feeling their legs become tangled in them.
"Ari, Don't. You know what happened last time you restrained Ejder with those vines."
" Mo chionta. Mo chreach. Bròn."
Hirk suddenly bursts into flames, the metals surrounding him behind to melt even slightly. His skin is flaking off in embers. The vines at his feet and others nearby him burn.
Hirk has made a deal, his blood boils. His body nothing more than kindling, no pain, no feelings of his own. Even death has lost its meaning other than knowing it will be soon.
Gonkgar shattered Hirk’s bones, joints and muscles with his might. But yet Hirk stood with only one arm giving in as he still refuses to move. Inside he glows a blinding green as his body could never keep up with it without outside intervention from his ‘soul’
With Hirk now throughly on fire approaching temperatures fire should not be allowed to reach. Most without decent fire resistant would be getting hurt inside the room and around him.
Fire erupting from Hirk douses over Gonkgar's body, singing at his immensely durable skin. Even so, his burned palms grip with unbreakable might. He watches Jean fall, and Max.
"No..."
Glorg phases out of his back, looking at Gonkgar with wide eyes before pulling at his shoulders. A memory flashes behind Gonkgar's eyes. The powerlessness as his friend was killed long ago. The reason he trained in the first place... Was it vengeance? Or was it to protect those he loved? Even when he gained the power to fight gods, he could not protect his friends.
The glint of Juggernaut enshrouds his body, but something is off... His body is no longer resisting the flames. He is engulfed with heat, skin melting away. He doesn't let go of Hirk, trying to pull him back... Protect anyone. Protect *anyone...*
A symbol manifests on Gonkgar's forehead. He screams and lets go of Hirk. Gonkgar falls to his knees, burning... This level of attack should not have been enough to phase him so... And yet the fires enshrouding him grow stronger on their own, not by Hirk's command.
Edjar(?): "If that man thinks what they were doing was torture, he knows nothing. And I watched his punishment."
Upon those words being said a chain of fire appears behind and wraps around Ejdar’s neck. It does not do anything other than burn them a bit.
Ari realises what Hirk is doing and runs off with the shards and cores
:ARI. PLEASE PUT US BACK DOWN.:
“Can you stop this fighting?”
:NO. THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN STOP THIS IS HIRK HIMSELF.:
Ari: “I'm afraid I'll just have to take you to a safe place than”
she is trying to navigate to the core room
:ARI. WAIT.:
“What is it?”
:IT IS POINTLESS. JEAN SMASHED THE CONSOLE WHEN SHE PULLED ME OUT. SOMETHING WAS CONTROLLING HER.:
“I can try to repair it.”
:BEFORE YOU DO, WE NEED TO HELP JEAN. SHE REMOVED ME FOR A GOOD REASON, WHILE SHE WAS STILL IN HER RIGHT MIND.:
“we can restore here with things that match her attributes right.”
:JEAN WON'T BE OK UNTIL HIRK HAS CALMED DOWN. SHE WAS BEING OVERWHELMED BY EVERYONE'S EMOTIONS, AND HIRK'S WERE CAUSING HER TO GO INSANE:
“so if i take her far from Hirk I could be able to restore her.”
:THAT WON'T WORK. SHE'S FORMED A SEMI-PERMANENT CONNECTION TO HIM, AND HIS EMOTIONS ARE FORCING IT ACTIVE:
Ari sets the cores and the shards down before returning
The Biomancer… Having assured Kyoko’s safety… Rises from the ground… turning once-more to meet Hirk…
Nhak: “Hirk.”
His voice is not a thundering yell… but a straight… genuine statement
“If killing is going to bring you peace…”
“Then Kill me.”
”Do it.”
“I will not resist… I will not stop you…”
“I will die… and come back again…”
“Over”
“And over.”
“And over again…”
“I will let you kill me in this room.”
“I will let you kill me outside…”
“I will let you do it over and over and over again for 759,673 thousand years, 3 months, 23 hours, 13 minutes and 3 seconds…”
“If that’s what’s going to deliver you peace…”
“I know my penance…”
“But I beg of you to spare the others…”
“They do not deserve an eternity like me…”
Hirk: “H-HOW MANY KILLS.”
Hirks voice is hard to make out as it’s spoken through the fire itself and its crackling. This time it sounds pained.
Nhak: “Me… none… the things I did to that woman are far worse than death… I will not hide that fact…”
“You… as many times as it takes to watch me die to satisfy your rage…”
“I have as long as time itself…”
“H-HOW MANY KILLS.”
Hirks voice is hard to make out as it’s overshadowed by the sound of fire.
Nhak: “Me… none… the things I did to that woman are far worse than death… I will not hide that fact…”
“You… as many times as it takes to watch me die to satisfy your rage…”
“I have as long as time itself…”
Max: “I am sorry. friend. But I am not fighting this battle. Not with you. You wanted me to kill myself? THEN HAVE IT YOUR WAY.” You see him take a swig of a potion.... his muscles bulge, his eyes grow bloodshot, his veins turn purple.... Lost Hope's Tonic.
He charges right at Hirk, Grabbing onto his shoulders. He stares him straight in the eyes. The panic, the torment, all of it doesn't matter. You do not see a glimmer of regret.
more beast than man, he has less than a minute alive. "Do you think, I have any intention to change things? to say I was wrong? No. I've done this for hundreds of years, and will do so for hundreds of years.”
“To protect those who cannot protect themselves. To shield those who were exploited. You must set an example. YOU MUST SHOW HOW THOSE WHO TERRORIZE THE WEAK ARE TREATED IN KIND.”
Now. You got what you wanted. Are, you, happy? His heart stops as he says his last words.
Hirk does not get a moment to respond until Max dies in front of him, he grits his teeth as more steam comes from his eyes but he does cool down as he shakes a bit.
Nhak runs over to Max
“Max… Max please…”
“Not like me… not like me…”
“Max…”
He holds the body tight
“June 20th…”
“You promised Max…”
“You promised her…”
“You promised us all…”
“And we were going to be there…”
“And you had the most wonderful ring for her…”
some tears runs down Hirk’s cheek before turning into steam.
Hirk: “Please. Just die, I don’t.*
Hirk can hardly even get his words out, hyperventilating on every word. There is less hatred in his voice as it is not filled with sorrow.
Nhak sits back against the wall… sheltering Max’s corpse from the flames… trying in vein to stop the heat as his hair and clothes begin to steam
A small, inconspicuous rift opens near Max's body, attempting to hide behind Nhak. Talios peeks his head out.
"Nhak. I will keep his body safe until revival. You can come with if you'd like, although don't stop touching me... Even though you're a ghost, the sure-hit effect may damage you still."
Sarah walks up to Nhak. “Don't... worry too much. I'll take you to see him... soon.”
Nhak lets go of the Corpse… letting Sarah and Talios handle it as they would…
Max’s body simply puffs into ash, with a small golden glimmer remaining, until it puffs away in a golden mist.
Talios: "Oh. Well then."
Sarah: “Don't forget... Zeroth isn't all that we have... Not since the gamble in the hells.”
Talios's head pops back into the rift, and it would close.
Nhak: “Promise he won’t be like me… you have to promise… you have to promise… you have to…”
He chokes on his words
Sarah: “He won't be. I promise you.”
Nhak tilts his head towards the heavens…
“Max… Max I promise… I’m going to protect her while you’re gone…”
“No harm is going to come to her…”
“And I’m going to make sure she’s ok…”
“I’m not going to let the universe take her away from you…”
“As mine was taken from me…”
“And you are going to get married…”
“And you are going to have that honeymoon…”
“She’s safe…”
“She’s safe…”
“Don’t be afraid…”
“I promise…”
Hirk’s other arm falls, his body looks to go mostly numb on hearing ‘Promise.’
Meanwhile Safi is way too calm given the current situation. They lean back in a chair. You don't know where it came from
Eliza’s song increases in volume, it places a heavier tax on everyone in the room. Hirk only gets angrier as intended.
She shifts her song, now that of sorrow, and death. A song used for executions... and for memorial.
Somehow, Kyoko is immune to the effects of the siren's song.
Ejder tilts his head, as if listening to something. A look crosses his face. He suddenly disappears.
Rachnia is still trying to make her way into Hirk's mind, getting closer, as he loses sanity. The further they delve the more Images of hatred and pain slash them like daggers as they attempt to go further.
She just sits through the pain of Hirk's counterattacks, she bores further through his defenses. She's getting oh so close to accessing his mind.
Memories of Hirk’s home and every little joy he had there acts to disorientate Rachnia. He has had someone in his mind before from some of the memories looking tampered with.
Aoi: “Everyone... get, the, fuck, out.”
Safi: “I don't intend to leave, and I don't think the rest of you can.”
Ari makes it back to where everyone is and uses vines to reach up behind Hirk
“Hirk you got to calm down, you're hurting all your friends. Look around you, Is this what you want.”
despite all the fire and overheating she attempts to put her hand on Hirk's shoulder, bracing for the pain
The fire burns Ari, but it cools down slightly to the touch. He is hesitating.
Hirk pays no attention almost as if he cannot feel it. His skin is gone on that part, only charring is left.
she still ands still keeping her hand on Hirk's shoulder
Hirk still does not notice.
you can see Nagisa’s tail slip under Hirk, pushing Ari backwards. "don't, he can't feel it..."
Eliza’s song of sorrows starts to reach it's climax. Sadness hangs in the room like a thick mist, her eyes are filled with tears.
Hirk shows some wincing sorrow in his eyes now.
Rachnia: seems to finally be out of the confusion, she's been set back a few steps, but continues.
All they see is fire. There is nothing else but yet it’s still his memory’s. Only burning
Rachnia powers through, incredibly angry.
She continues to bore further, trying to simply get a hold over Hirk's physical state instead of mental. “I just need him... calm...”
She tries to burrow beyond the memories. “Oh dear.... Hirk... I need to calm you down before things go wrong...” She makes one final push for the finish.
You see the tournament, His death at Paleo and his humiliation to Inferno. There is visible cracks around this memory. As you get closer you hear a voice. *”Stad”** you feel a desire to obey. It is not Hirk saying it.*
Rachnia: "Not until I get to the bottom... Not after this." she pushes right through.
A kind, compassionate, but stern voice speaks into Hirk's mind.
Ejdar(?): "Don't you think you've caused enough pain? Stop this madness, and show the rebirth that fire can create."
"The weeds have been burned. There is now room for the flowers to bloom. You can rest."
Aoi begins channeling the power of the Oni's Setting Sun to increase her own strength. “HIRK, COME TO YOUR SENSES, YOU KNUCKLEBRAINS.”
Another voice speaks to Hirk
:HIRK. JEAN HAD TO PULL US OUT OF OUR CONSOLES BECAUSE YOUR EMOTIONS WERE CAUSING HER TO FALL INTO MADNESS HERSELF, TO PREVENT THIS WORLD FROM KILLING IT'S INHABITANTS. PLEASE, COME TO YOUR SENSES:
Eliza sings final verse, A verse about the death of a lover, a death of a friend, the death of your entire world. In one vicious and hateful display of mockery to Hirk.
Hirks eardrums are completely burned away. But still his heart even as it is kindling right now, still feels pain.
A singular blade of fire comes at Rachnia, it’s different to Hirk’s chains, even more volatile and no refinement. It is the source, it is fire in its perfected state.
she sidesteps, both mentally and physically. "not this time. Not again. I'd make him sad again." She tries to grab into the very source.
There is only a singular stone in the centre. Burning hot and bright.
She winds her purple silk around it, before finally casting "Spirit Whisper"
Nhak Just sits there… motionless… arms as if he still had the body of his friend…still gazing at the heavens…
“I Promise… I promise…”
“I promise…”
“You two are going to get that happy ending…”
“I won’t let the world take from you what it took from me…”
“I promise you won’t end up like me…”
“Broken and violent and unstable…”
“I promise…”
“That the two of you will get the future I never had…”
“I cannot let anything like me ever happen again…”
“I can’t…”
“I’m sorry…”
He devolves once more into sobbing
The sheer unrelenting heat from interacting to the stone enough to begin melting the skin off of Rachnia, but the string does not burn fully.
"SPIRIT WHISPER. STAND DOWN, HIRK. KNEEL."
(https://youtu.be/6bg3YSxcRLo?si=pJYflBnJbJDQku_e)
Glorg looks at Gonkgar as he is burning on his knees. The Stand, acting on its own, starts trying to pat him down. It does nothing to dissuade the flames. It's almost as if Gonkgar is exuding his own flames now, with no amount of resistance to it as opposed to normally. These flames, however, do not spread as Hirk's would. They serve only to harm Gonkgar.
Glorg grabs Gonkgar by a shoulder and tries to lift his chin. The Stand, despite being unable to talk, looks petrified with worry. Gonkgar looks back up at him with a broken expression, and then looks beyond to the mayhem. There is a symbol on Gonkgar's forehead reminiscent of the one he obtained from the God-Slaver. Burning tears run down his face, eyes closed as he gives a sad smile to his long-dead friend Glorg.
"Me get it now..."
Glorg looks at him with astonishment, questioningly.
"It not matter what Gonkgar do... They always going to die."
Even as people make headway with Hirk's psyche, Gonkgar's has seen too many friends die on his watch for him to handle anymore.
"Gonkgar sorry, Glorg... Me give up."
Glorg screams as the fires intensify to a blinding white light around Gonkgar. Gonkgar doesn't know it, but his power has always been about belief. He was unstoppable because he believed himself unstoppable. He was strong because he believed he could become strong. His Stand ensured him of that. Now, as he believed himself worthy of death, or rather, as he *desired it, his Stand's power subconsciously turned on him...*
And Gonkgar disintegrated away to ash. Glorg, staring down, disappears with a steady waver.
There is an impossible thunder of the clap of wings…
Nhaks arm is around the string in an instant… feuled by the death of gonkgar… his form is a brilliant deep blue… where he treads there is ice…
The Sting smokes and steams…
Nhak’s ghost winces…
But the temperature is reduced… just barely enough to prevent any permanent damage…
“I’m… sorry…”
“Hirk…”
“But I can’t let you hurt her…”
”I promised him…”
Rachnia: “You... Need to realise what you are doing... Hirk... Just like you tried to punish the torturers... You became one yourself.”
“Do you see, just how slippery this slope is.”
”DO YOU UNDERSTAND, JUST HOW MUCH DAMAGE YOU'RE DOING.”
Hirk either upon seeing Gonkgar die. The one true innocent person here or Rachnias magic he falls to his knees. The fires dissipate as Hirk turns cold enough for frost to start forming on him. His head facing behind him, eyes pointed at Gonkgar the only one who he truly didn’t want to die.
The voice speaks in Hirk's head again. "Hirk, you are burning more than the weeds. You're destabilizing the forest."
“I do not need your agreement, Hirk. I do not need your.... pleasantries. I need you to realise what you are causing... You could have caused the collapse of the birch world.”
”THE END OF COUNTLESS CIVILISATIONS. THE DEATH OF EVERYONE YOU CARE ABOUT. THE DEMISE OF INSURMOUNTABLE EFFORT. YOU ALMOST DOOMED EVERYTHING. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?”
Hirk pays no full attention to anyone. Either because he cannot hear, feel or truly do anything in his charred state. He only looks at his scarf, it is charred and much of it is ash now. Only barely wearable. His promise.
For the first time since hirk met Rachnia, there's no kindness towards him in her eyes. There's spite, despair, and anger.
”DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT YOUR LITTLE TRIP OF JUSTICE NEARLY COST EVERYONE?! YOU SPEAK DOWN TO US, BUT ALL YOU ARE, IS A FILTHY HYPOCRITE.”
Hirk can only mouth 1 thing not even being able to speak it as he coughs up ash. He pulls his scarf close to him
’I am Sorry.’
Rachnia disconnects from Hirk entirely.
“I'm going to check on Max... on the Ironsides. Nhak, you're joining me. He needs someone he can TRUST right now.”
Sarah follows behind Rachnia, carring Eliza in her hands.
There is a crunch of metal as he tears the thorn violently from his head
“Yes Ma’m.”
He Instantly follows suit
Ari returns to the shards.
she applies a broken piece of one of her inventions to the shards trying to bring one of them back
:Entity Ari, you should be able to place me back now. I can restart the systems.:
she applies a broken piece of one of her inventions to the shards trying to bring one of them back
The green, translucent branches reach out toward the shards, and toward Hirk.
A loud voice heard from the Ironsides
<>Well fucking goddamnit that hurt...<>
Rachnia: “that... is what I meant with checking up on him.”
<>I'm alright, I think... I'm coming down.<>
A droppod falls from the Ironsides.
Maximilian: “Fucking... ouch... I need to stop using those....”
Rachnia hugs him, then hits him, then hugs him again.
Max: “Deserved…”
He looks like he's been through hell and back, literally.
Nhak waits patiently for his turn… a comically large chunk of his face completely missing as a part of Hirk’s thorn
Max: “I.... hope I didn't spook you too much... Nhak.”
The towering form of the Biomancer looms over the man… wings outstretched…
The backhand is swift and fluid… not near enough to do any serious damage… but enough to definitely sting…
”That…”
“Was for scaring me as bad as you did…”
“The things I might have done…”
“The terrible decisions I might have made…”
He sighs…
Then… just as quickly… as he had slapped him…
Max found himself wrapped in a supreme hug…
Feathers and everything…
“And that… That’s for coming back…”
“You big… lucky… Idiot…”
Max: “Ouch, but again... deserved. I'm glad to be back.”
Safi: “Looks like Hirk finally calmed down.”
Safi walks up to him and places a hand on his body
“This is not your time to die my friend.”
Hirk soul refuse. Even in death it’s instinctually resists any godly influence, as if it was too used to resisting it to save itself. He also refuses to be revived himself.
Four Drakenwardens approach the door, and stop seeing Hirk's body. "What happened down here? Ejder sent nothing but a message telling us how to get here."
No response
The four Drakenwardens stand outside the doorway. "Sir Maximillian, is this Hirk?" The one who spoke points to the charred body.
Max looks to Rachnia, who has a pure look of spite on her face at the mention of Hirk. He's confused.
He looks to the wardens. “I.... sure hope not.”
Safi: “it is.”
Max goes in to check for a pulse.
he see’s the scarf being clutched by Hirk. Or what is left of it. But upon inspection veins themselves appear gone gone, burnt away and melted by his own blood.
Zeroth: :Revival safeguards were shut down during the outburst: :Entity Hirk Lifesigns have Ceased:
The 'Wardens reach down and attempt to use healing magic to restore Hirk's body so that it does not look so gruesome.
Some skin reappears but it is mostly unsuccessful, there is little bits left of skin to even heal.
Max: “...... You fucking idiot... You just had to go on a powertrip... Now, of all times... How am I going to return you from this......”
One of the 'Wardens stands. "Does anyone know what happened to Ejder?"
Safi: “He left.”
Max: “How in the everliving hells....”
shock seems to surge through him before anything else.
The Drakenwardens glance at each other. They seem to have a silent conversation, then shake their heads. "We will be outside the chamber if anyone needs wounds treated."
Max: “Where's Jean...”
Nhak: “Max… Act now… ask questions later… I didn’t know Hirk very well… you did… we need his soul back… if there was anything… anything you might say to him which you’d like to tell him before he goes… this may be your last chance to turn things around…”
“But you need to be at his side… now…”
Max is quiet. he genuinely doesn't know what to say to Hirk.
Rachnia: “He's... not good with this stuff...”
Max…
Nhak is glowing gold now…
“Second chances are a dreadfully rare thing…”
“If you do not speak now… you may never get to see him again…”
“But is has to be you… or her…”
“Nobody else could ever claim to be as close to him as the two of you…”
Sarah: “Fellas, uh... anyone gonna check on the caveman? I will do so if no one else does.”
Gonkgar's god-rock and a pair of intricate gauntlets (which he never seems to wear) are lying in his ashes, unharmed.
Olive: “Max can you bring Reedus back up I need to let off some steam”
Nhak: “Olive… Can you just read the room please.”
”Not NOW.” You hear a hint of Fortuna's voice in there, he does not even wish to hear that name right now. The root of this problem.
Nhak: “Shank me or something I don’t care… but let everyone be…”
Olive: “I need to unwind, and I don't want to hurt anyone I care about”
Max: “Then go to the ironsides and hit some of the damn dolls in the training grounds.”
Nhak: “Well… stab me then… It doesn’t hurt… you could never actually hirt me…”
He spreads his arms out to her…
“But get on with it, get productive, or get out of our way… “
“We are in a time where what we do now… in this room… will decide the course of history…”
A lone girl stands in front of the charred remains. Gray ashes do not rain relentlessly down from the sky and pale mist does not devour the horizon. Yet she weeps.
*She falls to her knees as her hands move ravenously toward what once was her friend. They encounter no resistance, the raging inferno of his soul is but a placid pond now. Panic hinders her movement as she shakes in terror. Then she grasps something. It is a minuscule spark, but it's still burning.
Searing pain engulfs her, but she is not shaking anymore. Her hands slowly retract. Her fists are clenched around the spark. She can feel its physical manifestation now: it's a small molten pebble. Her body screams, urging to let go, and yet she brings it closer to her chest. Agony soars with her every movement but she does not stop. As her tears begin to fade into white mist, panic flares again in her heart. Her time is running out.
With one last movement, fueled by desperation, Livia's hands reach her heart. A ravenous void welcomes Hirk's soul, howling hungrily, surrounded by a vile and grotesque amalgamation of countless souls. It tries to reject Hirk's molten essence. It struggles and shrieks, but in the end the chorus of screams hushes. Only silence remains, as the lone girl fades once again, devoured by pale mist. She is no longer weeping. A tiny molten pebble stands defiant where her soul once stood, keeping the hungering void at bay. As her consciousness wanes, a faint smile appears on her lips. Nothing will ever deprive her of Hirk's warmth.*
/uw this has unironically taken days to do since I’ve been busy and it’s annoying to format. I want to thank all involved and to personally ask that I never have to do this again (joking if it’s Hirk’s thing again I will do it.)
I hope all who read this do enjoy it. I get to enjoy finally being free of this joy to take part in, hell to format
Edit: Formatting
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2024.05.28 19:06 Douglasjm Magic is Programming B2 Chapter 3: Planning

Synopsis:
Carlos was an ordinary software engineer on Earth, up until he died and found himself in a fantasy world of dungeons, magic, and adventure. This new world offers many fascinating possibilities, but it's unfortunate that the skills he spent much of his life developing will be useless because they don't have computers.
Wait, why does this spell incantation read like a computer program's source code? Magic is programming?
___
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Amber jumped up from the dining table and waved for Carlos to follow her. "I left my notes in my room. Come on, let's get them!"
"Do you actually need your notes?" Carlos kept his tone light as he walked behind her. "I think your memory is pretty good, and you thought through all of this very recently."
Amber shrugged without looking back. "Maybe not, but I'd get worried that I might forget a detail without them." She started climbing the private stairs toward the guest suites they were staying in. "I couldn't possibly forget the top priority thing, of course: making sure we don't get abducted and almost soul-killed again."
"Of course."
"In the immediate short term, we've already done everything I could think of about that." Amber rounded the landing of the stairs. "Might be worth revisiting the topic in case we think of anything new. … And bring Purple into the discussion; his unique perspective might see possibilities that we can't."
Carlos nodded, even though she wasn't looking toward him, and smoothly switched to telepathy to include the dungeon core. Purple's attention had focused on them the moment Amber said his name. [Right. So, short-term safety measures for us. To start with, we've already moved into the mayor's mansion, so anyone who considers targeting us now will at least know we have his support.]
[Yeah. And attackers won't be able to bypass the outer wards just by renting a room here, like they did at the inn.]
Carlos shrugged as he reached the top of the stairs. [I'm honestly not sure how much that mattered. They got through the suite-specific wards without a trace, and that's not even the most unbelievable thing they pulled off.]
[True.] Amber opened the door to her suite and went straight to the large hardwood desk against the left wall. [Fortunately for us, we have our own unbelievable thing to counter them. Even if all wards and guards fail, Purple will alert everyone to it immediately.] She sighed and shook her head. [If only we'd introduced him to Mayor Stelras earlier. Those mercenaries would have had every adventurer and city guard in Dramos swarming them before they even reached the walls.]
[Would have been a lot less stressful that way, certainly.] Carlos chuckled, shaking his head ruefully. [On the other hand, the pressure of it pushed us to figure out some incredible things.]
[The pressure may have prompted it, but we could have figured them out anyway without it; it just would have been later.] Amber pulled a notebook out of the desk's top drawer and opened it. [I'd rather avoid the unpleasantness of the experience. Anyway, the rest of the short-term safety measures: We have Esmorana and her party on call, with Purple able to contact them at any time. We have Ressara on call and sometimes standing watch, to check for attention-diversion magic. The Crown gave use two special emergency beacons, separate from the ones built into our guards' armor that got disabled by sabotage, which we have tested and stored in separate locations; one in the city's top security vault, and the other hidden. And finally, we have city guards patrolling and standing watch around the mansion, in addition to Colonel Lorvan and Major Ordens inside the mansion.]
Carlos chewed his lip for a moment. [What about reinforcing the wards here? Or adding more layers of them?]
Amber shook her head. [I considered that, but I don't think we can really trust the Enchanters Guild, and they're the only ones who could do that for us.]
[Hmm.] Carlos leaned against the doorframe and tapped his chin, thinking. [Yeah, that's reasonable. They want our dungeon core, and they're the top suspect for who could have sabotaged royal guard armor. Are they really the only source of enchanting work, though?]
Amber slowly walked over to one of the sofas and sat down, all without more than glancing away from her notebook. [Unless you count items made by dungeon cores, yes. I've heard of people figuring out what runes to write for an enchantment's effect, but the guild is… famously vicious about protecting their monopoly on the secret of how to imbue an item with mana and make the enchantment actually work. And before you suggest visiting a dungeon core, we don't have access to one powerful enough for this.]
Carlos smirked. [Not yet. But helping Purple get that powerful is a long-term thing, so fair point.]
Amber looked over at him, then rolled her eyes and waved at the sofa opposite her. "Come in and take a seat, already! I thought I was the shy one out of the two of us, not you."
Carlos smiled as he complied. "It's your room, and I was taught that entering someone's private area uninvited is rude." He settled into the sofa's soft upholstery and leaned forward, clasping his hands together and resting his elbows on his knees. [I'm not happy about how much our short-term defense plans rely on rescue after-the-fact, just trying to ensure it comes quickly, rather than preventing abduction from happening in the first place. But…] He sighed. [The only short-term options I can think of for that involve abandoning Dramos, which I expect the Crown would frown on.]
[Yeah, let's not disappoint and displease our greatest protector. So, if you don't have any new short-term ideas either…?] Amber looked at Carlos and he shook his head. [Purple? You've been quiet so far. Any ideas?]
[Not for the short term.] Purple's mental voice felt resigned, yet determined and hopeful for the future. [I will need to gain a great deal more power before I can make barriers of any kind that would be meaningful against the level of our enemies.]
[Then let's move on to the long term.] Amber turned the page in her notebook. [We have several avenues to juggle and prioritize for how to develop our house, and I started with breaking them down into categories and subcategories. At the top level, we have: our own personal development, Purple's development, and staff or resource development.]
Carlos felt something weird from his comprehension aid and took a moment to sort out what it was. Amber had used only a single word for the combination of both staff and resources. I guess the concept of "human resources" got into the Ganler language. [So, essentially the house itself, and then everything else. For personal development, there's learning more and better spells, and making 9 new soul structures, of course.]
[Don't forget absorbing more mana, I mean aether, from the deep Wilds to advance our levels,] Amber chided him. [Our absorption rate being crippled by the 9 empty slots left from our original set merging just means that leveling up will have to come after fixing that, not that it isn't critically important. I think some of those mercenaries, especially their captain, had levels in the 40s. We're only Level 15, and making up for a power gap that large with just spells and clever tricks may not be possible.]
Carlos sighed and lowered his head. [I know. But I'm worried that if we rush that too much, we might handicap ourselves in the long run.] He straightened and took a deep breath. [And whatever capabilities we end up with, we'll need to practice with them. Spar with each other, and with other people, for combat practice. Consider contingencies and make plans. Hone our reflexes. Having enough power and the right spell to save ourselves only matters if we take action to use it correctly and quickly enough.]
Amber nodded and scribbled something in her notebook. [Good point. I missed that. Any other categories for personal improvement?]
Carlos shook his head, and Purple just sent an impression of a shrug.
[Okay. Then for soul structures: while we could brainstorm ideas and principles for what to prioritize, before we can even begin making actual plans we need more information. We need to ask Lorvan and Ordens for every detail they can tell us about how this "second stage" works. How does the merge affect synergy requirements? Can new structures merge into it too? Why was just the first stage enough to qualify us as high nobles?] Amber looked at the open page in her notebook and snorted. [I have more questions listed, but you get the point.]
Carlos nodded. [Right. We can't optimize a plan if we don't know the rules. We shouldn't assume that Lorvan will tell us all of the rules, though. He may not even know all of them. I'd bet that the Crown has a secret or two about this that only the royals themselves know, and there could be possible tricks that no one knows.]
Amber tapped the page. [Yep, I already noted that. I'm kind of expecting that you'll be the one to figure that stuff out, though. I'll try, but you seem to be better at that sort of thing. The other thing we need to know is what capabilities we could use spells for instead. The whole point of being mages, using incantations to cast spells instead of having soul structures produce effects directly, is to have versatility without losing power in exchange. Ideally, every soul structure should either improve our spellcasting, do something that cannot be done with spells, or at least be better in an important way than the closest spell.]
[I've been so absorbed in cataloging effect keywords that I hadn't even thought about that. Hmm…] Carlos cocked his head and considered for several seconds. [That makes sense.] He chuckled. [So it turns out that, by completely putting the soul structures issue out of my mind, I've actually been working on the soul structures issue after all!] He grinned cheekily.
Amber smiled and nodded. [Apparently so. In any case, our action items for this are: ask Lorvan for information; try to figure out extra things beyond what he can tell us; finish cataloging the extent and coverage of incantations versatility; then make a plan using the information we learn. Can you think of anything to add?] As she listed the action items, she quickly wrote several lines on a separate sheet of paper.
[That covers everything I can think of.]
[Okay. Moving on to spells.] Amber turned the page. [Right now, we pretty much just need to do what you're already doing: sort through and catalog all the possibilities. We need the results of that to inform our choices about what to learn and practice with.] She hesitated. [Though with Trinlen here, maybe we should go ahead and start lessons with him before we finish that.]
[Definitely. He'll at least know about all the standard options that the academy teaches, and he can give interactive guidance, assessing and responding to what we need.]
Amber scribbled a few more lines of action items, then paused and inserted one just above the last line. [Just remembered, we still need to decide how much to tell him about your system documentation discovery.] She turned back to her notebook and flipped back to the first page for a moment. [Gaining levels will have to wait on making new soul structures. Practicing combat will have to wait until we have suitable spells and abilities to practice with. That makes the next item Purple's development. How's your current progress going, Purple?]
[I have disassembled the soul structure I made for finding you and replaced it with the originally planned structure. I have additionally made the next 3 planned structures, and I am currently collecting the essence for the final 10th structure.] Purple sent a small burst of surprised confusion. ["Essence?" Ah, I see. A word you learned recently?]
Carlos raised an eyebrow and saw Amber doing the same. [Trinlen taught us about it. Any issues with establishing all the synergies?]
[I will need assistance for the synergies with the bond maker. Those synergies involve and require interaction with someone I have a bond with.]
Carlos nodded. [Of course. After that's done, are you ready to go traveling to absorb higher-level aether? I know that you have to release most of your… mana? Is that the right one, out of aether, mana, and essence?]
[Partially. What anchors me in place, which I must leave behind in order to be moved, is a mix of all three. Regardless, I have far more essence and mana inside me than before, and that will come with me. The loss of what I leave behind will affect me much less and will be more quickly regained. Travel will be necessary to gain the power to protect us. Do not be concerned about my minor discomfort with the process.]
Amber responded first. [I'm glad to hear that. We also need to make plans for what soul structures you should make after your first set merge, but that will have to wait for the same information as our own plans. Is there anything else we can do to help you grow?]
Purple paused, filled with uncertainty. [I don't know.] He hesitated again. [You humans learn how to grow powerful by learning from other humans how they grew powerful. Dungeons do not. Or rather, cannot, because we do not move, meet, and communicate. Find knowledge of how other dungeons became powerful, and that may help me. That is the only idea I have.]
Carlos laughed. [Yet another research project, hmm? Sure, we can add it to the list.]
Amber duly wrote it down, along with a trip into the Wilds for Purple. [Okay. That leaves staff/resources. For improving the staff that we already have, well… I only have one idea for that. We could try helping them improve their soul plans, but doing that without teaching them house secrets could be tricky, and we'd have to convince them to tell us what they already have. The degree of specific details we might need to know in order to help is… enough that even asking would be rude.]
[I see.] Carlos shrugged. [There are ways around that. If we explain the basic idea of the kind of help we might be able to give them, then they can decide whether to share that information without us ever actually asking for it.]
Amber narrowed her eyes at him, then took a note. [Sure. I'll leave that conversation to you.] She glanced back at her notebook and sighed. [And that leaves acquiring new staff/resources. I suppose we could ask Darmelkon to help, but I'm not sure how much we can trust him. Aside from that…] She shook her head helplessly. [I know how to do small jobs and carefully save up, but that's hardly appropriate for us now as nobles.]
Carlos chuckled lightly. [Don't worry about it. I've seen enough of how people in positions of high authority do such things. There's a related saying I learned: "We have people for that." We can delegate it. Eventually, we will have to delegate it, because there will be too many things for us to even conceivably have enough time for all of them. We've kind of already delegated some things anyway: investigating the mercenaries and the illegal "rotation agreement."]
[Yeah. I wonder how those investigations are going.]
___
Far away, in a dimly lit prison cell, a heavily muscled man, sitting cross-legged on the floor, sighed and bowed his head. He wore only plain and loose clothes made of cheap cloth, save for the rune-inlaid steel manacles that bound his wrists together. He looked up again at the regal woman, dressed entirely in the dark orange of orichalcum, who was watching him from just outside the cell bars. "Your Highness, I can only tell you the same thing I told your interrogators: threats cannot change the simple fact that I do not have the knowledge that you seek. I intentionally set up ways for clients to hire my company without ever revealing any hint of their identities. That anonymity was part of what the Black Blades became known for; part of why people would choose to hire us."
The regal woman gazed at him impassively. "I am aware of your reputation, Captain Granlan. I also have a report of your company exacting retribution on a client who hired you under false pretenses and set you up to fail."
Granlan raised an eyebrow. "Does that report mention how long it took us to unwind the layers of cutouts and concealments to identify that particular client?"
The woman nodded. "Two and a half years, during which you were also pursuing other jobs, and you began with no specific suspicions. Imagine that you focus on the task exclusively; that you coordinate with the Crown on it; and that you start with a precise primary suspect in mind. How much faster do you think that could make it?"
Slowly, Granlan's weary frown changed into a grin. "Now we're talking!"
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2024.05.28 19:05 JRE47 A Comprehensive PvP Analysis on the GBL Season 19 (Shared Skies) Move Rebalance

New season, new shakeup! As per usual, we get new moves added to new recipients, and some existing moves get tweaked. Unlike usual, we don't get any all-new moves, but on the plus side, we got all this teased over a week ahead of time, making ol' JRE quite happy. No last minute scramble to get through it all!
But even with a relatively simple move rabalance like this one, there's still plenty to cover. Nowhere will you find analysis that goes to these depths, covering the big names and some others you likely haven't even considered.
Let's do this, people!

(NEW) ATTACK ON TITAN 🌨️

There are several attack changes people are already talking about excitedly with this update, so naturally I'm going to start with... CETITAN? Hear me out, because I think this is one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) move addition in this whole rebalance.
"JRE, you're crazy, man. Ice types are a dime a dozen. What makes Cetitan so special?"
Well judging by my initial PvP review on Cetitan when it was released, not much. I noted it had decent overall bulk and was at least better than Avalugg (with the same Body Slam and Avalanche charge moves, but Cetitan having the better fast move with Ice Shard as opposed to Lugg's Ice Fang), and perhaps had some promise in Master League where Ice types have a lot of advantages anyway, particularly Premier where Legendary Ice types are left on the outside looking in. And now? Enter an even much better fast move than Ice Shard: Powder Snow, which beats all the same ML core meta stuff as Ice Shard plus Origin Giratina, Lugia, and Snorlax in 0shield, Altered Giratina, Swampert, and Gyarados in 1shield, Mewtwo and Reshiram in 2shield, and Xerneas and Zacian in both 1 and 2shield. And again, NO new losses... this is a straight upgrade, folks. In the rankings, Cetitan leapfrogs Avalugg, Walrein, Baxcalibur, and even lomg-time staple Mamoswine in the ratings (and in performance) to trail only Kyurem and Hisuian Avalugg among Ice types, and Cetitan can still do things not even those two can like beating Mewtwo, Excadrill, and Reshiram!
Cetitan does move into the upper ranks of Ice types in other Leagues as well, but there is just a lot of established and versatile competition to contend with like Walrein, Dewgong, Abomasnow, Alolan Sandslash, Arctibax, Aurorus, Froslass, Alolan Ninetales, and even old friends like Lapras. Those mostly all fall away in Master League, leaving the new and improved Cetitan to shoot up the charts more decisively. You'll start to see it all over now, particularly in Cups, but I do think Master League is where it will likely make its biggest mark for those with the means to build it up. It can even beat three out of four Necrozmas! (The Steely Dusk Mane fusion being the only exception, for rather obvious reasons.)
One other League to consider is Little Leaue, and CETODDLE, who gets the same moveset update and does good things with it. Stupid trash can lid Bronzor is still a huge issue, of course, as well as obvious Fires and Fighters and such. But this is easily now one of the best Ice types in Little League and should be a fixture of most Little formats from here on out.
Do I think these two are going to suddenly take over their respective Leagues? Probably not. But do they deserve a heck of a lot more usage, even in Open? Absolutely. There's a reason I chose to lead off with these two!

PUNCHING LIGHTS OUT ⚡

Thunder Punch is not exactly an electrifying move in PvP. Like the other Elemental Punches (Fire, Ice, Thunder), as well as other move clones (Aerial Ace and Stomp), it costs only 40 energy, but deals only 55 damage for a passable but unexciting 1.37 Damage Per Energy. Most things that use it (and there are several, such as Ampharos, Muk, Hypno, Pachirisu, and the Super Raichu Bros.) do so as a bait move, though as with any elemental move, the coverage alone can be nice too (for things like Muk and Hypno, at least). Still, often if it goes through unshielded, that's a loss for the user, as they typically want to bait a shield with it leading up to a big closer like Dark Pulse (Muk), Shadow Ball (Hypno), or Wild Charge (Raichus).
And honestly, that mostly remains Thunder Punch's role for the things now recieving it:

🎼 COME FLY WITH ME, LET'S FLY AWAY! 🦅

Fly is one of the best moves in the entire game: 45 energy for 80 damage, with no drawbacks at all. That's what Sky Attack was from 2018 to 2021, back when it was terrifying in PvP, before dropping to 75 power and eventually going to 50 energy too last year. (What did Sky Attack ever do to you, Hanke?! 😢) But now, in keeping with the seeming skyward theme of the season, old school Sky Attack is being handed out to several new recipients that... uh... could use some help. Is it enough?

NIFTY OR... SWIFTIE? ‍💨

Apologies to the fans of the future Mrs. Travis Kelce (if you know, you know)....
Anyway, long-terrible Normal charge move Swift is finally getting a buff. I think so, at least. Niantic is actually lowing its power from 60 damage to 55, but they are also lowering its cost. How much? That's the part we don't know yet, but PvPoke has speculated it will drop from 55 energy all the way down to 40, and while that's probably the best case scenario, we're gonna roll with it for the purposes of this analysis. If that holds true, the resulting 55 damage/40 every should look quite familiar... it's the same stats as Thunder Punch. And as we talked about earlier, that's usually better for baiting than anything, but it's passable and certainly FAR better than the 60 damage/55 energy it was previously.
Does anything that now gets it (or already has it) actually want to use it, though?
So no big ripples, but hey, Swift is at least not a meme move anymore. And Uxie really likes it now, at least! Let's shake it off 😉 and move along to the last couple move tweaks....

NO GO ADELE 🐉

Sticking with the theme of famous singers... Hello from the other side! 🙃
Okay, sorry sorry. NAGANADEL gets Dragon Claw now. Yay? Sadly this does very, very little for it in PvP, picking up just a single win over Yveltal, of all things, in 1v1 shielding, and no real changes elsewhere. At least this section is easy on me (musical lyric joke counter: 2) and we can move on to the next now.

PATIENCE, YOUNG GRASSHOPPER 🦗

If you don't get the reference, it's from a famous show from the 70s (yes, the 1970s, you youngins) called "Kung Fu". It's a famous show and a famous phrase that you should know. No, I don't just know it because I'm old, it's famous!
...get off my lawn.
Anyway, Counter remains the best fast overall move in the game, so any time something new gets it, that is reason enough to sit up and notice. Even when that recipient is a current Pokémona non grata like LOKIX.
Look, it's very glassy and will likely never be more than spice. This is unlikely to really shake up any meta in a major way. But yes, Lokix is significantly better than before now that it has Counter. It does unfortunately drop Cresselia, but can now outslug stuff like Lickitung, Dewgong, Guzzlord, Vigoroth, Galarian Stunfisk, and even Skarmory and Bastiodon despite how scary those two normally are for Bugs. It sees similar improvement in Ultra League, dropping Fighting-resistent Venusaur and Golisopod but gaining Registeel, Steelix, Alolan Sandslash, Swampert, Walrein, and Greedent, but uh... it has to be leveled up to at least Level 46, and is still a poor option overall. Not worth it, IMO. But keep an eye on it, as the addtion of another impactful charge move could elevate it further. Counter users are ALWAYS worth at least some consideration.

(RE-) PLANTING A SEED 🌱

We all know why Seed Bomb was nerfed from its original 40 to 45 energy: it was felt that something had to be done about TREVENANT, by far the most impactful Seed Bomb user. Yes yes, it got a small damage bump as well (from 55 to 60 damage), but the (completely intended) damage was done, and Trevenant usage dropped quite a bit. The hit wasn't TOO bad, but it was enough.
Now Trevor gets a boost again, with the cost remaining the same but the damage creeping up to 65 now, elevating it from a clone of Wrap (and a slew of stat-altering moves like Icy Wind, Mystical Fire, Lunge, the Forces Of Nature unique Storm moves, and others... but Seed Bomb of course HAS no stat altering and was thus far worse) to a clone of Discharge. Not amazing — a reduction in cost to what it once way would REALLY make a difference — but certainly more palpable.
In the end, it's a small buff to Trevenant — with only a couple new wins like Shadow Dragonair in 1shield and Azumarill in 2shield in Great League, and Feraligatr and Greninja in 1shield and Tentacruel in 2shield in Ultra League — but we'll take it! Those UL wins especially are pretty nice.
Not many other notable Seed Bomb users, but here's what I see: WHIMSICOTT (with Fairy Wind) can now beat Galarian Stunfisk and Azumarill with shields down (in Great League), so that's a small but welcome improvement. Aaaaaaand that's about it. No big changes I see with Little League COTTONEE or BULBASAUR or Little or Great League DARTRIX, and then you're into things like CELEBI. Yeah, this is first and almost entirely centered on Trevenant.

SNUFFING OUT SPARK 🔌

Just as Seed Bomb changes are directly intended to affect one meta Pokémon, so too is the story with the nerf to Spark dropping from 6 damage to 5: this is directly intended to nerf LANTURN. There used to be other meta things that ran Spark because they had to, but they've all gotten other tricks since then that are now preferred (Volt Switch for Magnezone and family, Volt Switch for Charjabug, etc.). Yes, some others like LUXRAY and PROBOPASS remain as collateral damage, but those are just occasional spice considerations. No, the only truly meta change here is to Lanturn, as intended.
But how bad is it? Overall, it's not TOO significant. Lanturn now loses to Registeel in 1v1 shielding (and not surprisingly gets a bit less dominant versus other things like Azumarill and Mandibuzz), Medicham and Charjabug in 0shield, and Altaria and Annihilape in 2shield. Those ARE some big names, but where you primarily wanted it before, it still works, albeit sometimes with a little less left in the tank at the end. Farming things down obviously gets harder! It drops from formerly ranking #12 in Great League 20 spots to now #32 (at the time of this writing), but still... a Top 30ish option is still a really good PvP Pokémon.
...oh, but uh, there's a caveat: it's now ranked at #32 with Water Gun, while Spark Lanturn has dropped all the way down to #66. That may be a little harsh, but does make sense. Ironically, the rating with Water Gun goes UP from #35 to now #32. I don't knwo that I'm quite ready to say that Water Gun Lanturn is now the clear favorite over Spark Lanturn, but they're now both moving into "sidegrade" territory for sure, with Spark still being best for things like Mandibuzz, Poliwrath, and Sableye, but Water Gun carving out wins against Galarian Stunfisk, Shadow Gilgar, Carbink... and the Registeel that Spark now loses to. Water Gun is also far better now [with shields down], beating things that Spark cannot like G-Fisk, Shadow Gligar, and Carbink again, along with Charjabug and Shadow A-Slash, while the only unique win Spark holds onto is Dewgong. Interestingly, Water Gun Lanturn can also now win the head to head with Spark Lanturn in 2v2 shielding. Spark and Water Gun now deal the same damage per turn, so Water Gun's shorter cooldown wins the day.
Again, I do not think Lanturn is going to suddenly disappear from Open formats or even PvP in-person tournaments. But I DO think its use is going to go down as it slips back a tier or two in the meta. I mean, it almost HAS to. And yes, I do think Water Gun variants are going to be far more common now. Again, you almost HAVE to move that direction now, at least for certain team compositions. We'll see how bad it gets soon enough.

A SEARING REVIEW

Speaking of getting bad, a brief mention for the other notable nerf with this update: Scald. It retains its nice cost to damage ratio of 1.7 Damage Per Energy (50 energy for 85 damage), but the chance for it to lower the target's Attack is going to drop. We don't know how much, but considering it currently sits at 50%, something like 30% seems a resonable expectation, and that's what PvPoke has put up speculatively as well. I'm NOT going to turn to simulations here, as moves with a percentage change of triggers are notoriously difficult to portray that way, to the point of almost being deceptive to even try. But I hardly think this marks the death of intended targets like WHISCASH or POLIWRATH unless, perhaps, the percentage change completely craters at like 20% or below. It's still good damage output and still a great STAB move for each of them. The rankings show Shadow Whiscash only dropping from #23 to #27 (though non-Shadow does take more of a hit, from a former #27 to now #42) and Poliwrath sees only a very small dip as well (#31 → #34 for Shadow and #46 → #48 for non-Shadow in Great League, and basically no change in Ultra League {non-Shadow drops only spot from #5 to #6, and Shadow actually rises from #10 to #9 thanks to other meta shifts}). Yes, this will hurt those who have fallen in love with those two, and surely there will be a slight dip in tournament play. But I don't think this is nearly the death knell some are making it out to be.
I DO think this may convince me to give up my Bubble LUDICOLO I've been running in GL of late, though. Scald triggering was the difference between life and death against some things like Gilgar. And other slightly-less-meta things like TENTACRUEL may suffer a little bit as well, but again, the change isn't all that bad. (Tentacthulhu, for example, usually counts on Acid Spray for debuffing hijinks anyway and saves Scald as a closer... it's less reliant on the debuffing it can sometimes provide.)

IN SUMMATION

And that's it! Barring any last minute surprises by Niantic (ALWAYS a possibility), there's your review of all changes coming with the Shared Skies Season. As a quick reminder so people don't panic, keep in mind that while the new season starts on the 1st as per usual, the move updates will not go live until June 3rd, as a nice gesture to not disrupt the planned PJCS and Bologna tournaments that weekend.
By way of quick summary of the above (here's your TL;DR, folks!):
The biggest winners I see in this update are (in rough order) CETITAN (maybe CETODDLE?) with Powder Snow, TYPHLOSION with Thunder Punch, UXIE with Swift, SWOOBAT with Fly, SCRAFTY with Thunder Punch, LOKIX with Counter, TREVENANT with buffed Seed Bomb, and then maybe SALAMENCE (Fly) and WHIMSICOTT (Seed Bomb). Other than Cetitan and Typhlosion, I don't know that any of them move drastically up the ranks, but they're all better with this update and bear watching as spice options at the very least.
Alrighty, that's it for now. Back to analysis on the Necrozma Fusions (already in progress) and beyond! Until then, you can always find me on Twitter or Patreon. Or please feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll get back to you as soon as I can!
Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Best of luck as we move into the new season, and catch you next time!
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2024.05.28 19:04 JRE47 GBL Season 19 Move Rebalance: A JRE Analysis

New season, new shakeup! As per usual, we get new moves added to new recipients, and some existing moves get tweaked. Unlike usual, we don't get any all-new moves, but on the plus side, we got all this teased over a week ahead of time, making ol' JRE quite happy. No last minute scramble to get through it all!
But even with a relatively simple move rabalance like this one, there's still plenty to cover. Nowhere will you find analysis that goes to these depths, covering the big names and some others you likely haven't even considered.
Let's do this, people!

(NEW) ATTACK ON TITAN 🌨️

There are several attack changes people are already talking about excitedly with this update, so naturally I'm going to start with... CETITAN? Hear me out, because I think this is one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) move addition in this whole rebalance.
"JRE, you're crazy, man. Ice types are a dime a dozen. What makes Cetitan so special?"
Well judging by my initial PvP review on Cetitan when it was released, not much. I noted it had decent overall bulk and was at least better than Avalugg (with the same Body Slam and Avalanche charge moves, but Cetitan having the better fast move with Ice Shard as opposed to Lugg's Ice Fang), and perhaps had some promise in Master League where Ice types have a lot of advantages anyway, particularly Premier where Legendary Ice types are left on the outside looking in. And now? Enter an even much better fast move than Ice Shard: Powder Snow, which beats all the same ML core meta stuff as Ice Shard plus Origin Giratina, Lugia, and Snorlax in 0shield, Altered Giratina, Swampert, and Gyarados in 1shield, Mewtwo and Reshiram in 2shield, and Xerneas and Zacian in both 1 and 2shield. And again, NO new losses... this is a straight upgrade, folks. In the rankings, Cetitan leapfrogs Avalugg, Walrein, Baxcalibur, and even lomg-time staple Mamoswine in the ratings (and in performance) to trail only Kyurem and Hisuian Avalugg among Ice types, and Cetitan can still do things not even those two can like beating Mewtwo, Excadrill, and Reshiram!
Cetitan does move into the upper ranks of Ice types in other Leagues as well, but there is just a lot of established and versatile competition to contend with like Walrein, Dewgong, Abomasnow, Alolan Sandslash, Arctibax, Aurorus, Froslass, Alolan Ninetales, and even old friends like Lapras. Those mostly all fall away in Master League, leaving the new and improved Cetitan to shoot up the charts more decisively. You'll start to see it all over now, particularly in Cups, but I do think Master League is where it will likely make its biggest mark for those with the means to build it up. It can even beat three out of four Necrozmas! (The Steely Dusk Mane fusion being the only exception, for rather obvious reasons.)
One other League to consider is Little Leaue, and CETODDLE, who gets the same moveset update and does good things with it. Stupid trash can lid Bronzor is still a huge issue, of course, as well as obvious Fires and Fighters and such. But this is easily now one of the best Ice types in Little League and should be a fixture of most Little formats from here on out.
Do I think these two are going to suddenly take over their respective Leagues? Probably not. But do they deserve a heck of a lot more usage, even in Open? Absolutely. There's a reason I chose to lead off with these two!

PUNCHING LIGHTS OUT ⚡

Thunder Punch is not exactly an electrifying move in PvP. Like the other Elemental Punches (Fire, Ice, Thunder), as well as other move clones (Aerial Ace and Stomp), it costs only 40 energy, but deals only 55 damage for a passable but unexciting 1.37 Damage Per Energy. Most things that use it (and there are several, such as Ampharos, Muk, Hypno, Pachirisu, and the Super Raichu Bros.) do so as a bait move, though as with any elemental move, the coverage alone can be nice too (for things like Muk and Hypno, at least). Still, often if it goes through unshielded, that's a loss for the user, as they typically want to bait a shield with it leading up to a big closer like Dark Pulse (Muk), Shadow Ball (Hypno), or Wild Charge (Raichus).
And honestly, that mostly remains Thunder Punch's role for the things now recieving it:

🎼 COME FLY WITH ME, LET'S FLY AWAY! 🦅

Fly is one of the best moves in the entire game: 45 energy for 80 damage, with no drawbacks at all. That's what Sky Attack was from 2018 to 2021, back when it was terrifying in PvP, before dropping to 75 power and eventually going to 50 energy too last year. (What did Sky Attack ever do to you, Hanke?! 😢) But now, in keeping with the seeming skyward theme of the season, old school Sky Attack is being handed out to several new recipients that... uh... could use some help. Is it enough?

NIFTY OR... SWIFTIE? ‍💨

Apologies to the fans of the future Mrs. Travis Kelce (if you know, you know)....
Anyway, long-terrible Normal charge move Swift is finally getting a buff. I think so, at least. Niantic is actually lowing its power from 60 damage to 55, but they are also lowering its cost. How much? That's the part we don't know yet, but PvPoke has speculated it will drop from 55 energy all the way down to 40, and while that's probably the best case scenario, we're gonna roll with it for the purposes of this analysis. If that holds true, the resulting 55 damage/40 every should look quite familiar... it's the same stats as Thunder Punch. And as we talked about earlier, that's usually better for baiting than anything, but it's passable and certainly FAR better than the 60 damage/55 energy it was previously.
Does anything that now gets it (or already has it) actually want to use it, though?
So no big ripples, but hey, Swift is at least not a meme move anymore. And Uxie really likes it now, at least! Let's shake it off 😉 and move along to the last couple move tweaks....

NO GO ADELE 🐉

Sticking with the theme of famous singers... Hello from the other side! 🙃
Okay, sorry sorry. NAGANADEL gets Dragon Claw now. Yay? Sadly this does very, very little for it in PvP, picking up just a single win over Yveltal, of all things, in 1v1 shielding, and no real changes elsewhere. At least this section is easy on me (musical lyric joke counter: 2) and we can move on to the next now.

PATIENCE, YOUNG GRASSHOPPER 🦗

If you don't get the reference, it's from a famous show from the 70s (yes, the 1970s, you youngins) called "Kung Fu". It's a famous show and a famous phrase that you should know. No, I don't just know it because I'm old, it's famous!
...get off my lawn.
Anyway, Counter remains the best fast overall move in the game, so any time something new gets it, that is reason enough to sit up and notice. Even when that recipient is a current Pokémona non grata like LOKIX.
Look, it's very glassy and will likely never be more than spice. This is unlikely to really shake up any meta in a major way. But yes, Lokix is significantly better than before now that it has Counter. It does unfortunately drop Cresselia, but can now outslug stuff like Lickitung, Dewgong, Guzzlord, Vigoroth, Galarian Stunfisk, and even Skarmory and Bastiodon despite how scary those two normally are for Bugs. It sees similar improvement in Ultra League, dropping Fighting-resistent Venusaur and Golisopod but gaining Registeel, Steelix, Alolan Sandslash, Swampert, Walrein, and Greedent, but uh... it has to be leveled up to at least Level 46, and is still a poor option overall. Not worth it, IMO. But keep an eye on it, as the addtion of another impactful charge move could elevate it further. Counter users are ALWAYS worth at least some consideration.

(RE-) PLANTING A SEED 🌱

We all know why Seed Bomb was nerfed from its original 40 to 45 energy: it was felt that something had to be done about TREVENANT, by far the most impactful Seed Bomb user. Yes yes, it got a small damage bump as well (from 55 to 60 damage), but the (completely intended) damage was done, and Trevenant usage dropped quite a bit. The hit wasn't TOO bad, but it was enough.
Now Trevor gets a boost again, with the cost remaining the same but the damage creeping up to 65 now, elevating it from a clone of Wrap (and a slew of stat-altering moves like Icy Wind, Mystical Fire, Lunge, the Forces Of Nature unique Storm moves, and others... but Seed Bomb of course HAS no stat altering and was thus far worse) to a clone of Discharge. Not amazing — a reduction in cost to what it once way would REALLY make a difference — but certainly more palpable.
In the end, it's a small buff to Trevenant — with only a couple new wins like Shadow Dragonair in 1shield and Azumarill in 2shield in Great League, and Feraligatr and Greninja in 1shield and Tentacruel in 2shield in Ultra League — but we'll take it! Those UL wins especially are pretty nice.
Not many other notable Seed Bomb users, but here's what I see: WHIMSICOTT (with Fairy Wind) can now beat Galarian Stunfisk and Azumarill with shields down (in Great League), so that's a small but welcome improvement. Aaaaaaand that's about it. No big changes I see with Little League COTTONEE or BULBASAUR or Little or Great League DARTRIX, and then you're into things like CELEBI. Yeah, this is first and almost entirely centered on Trevenant.

SNUFFING OUT SPARK 🔌

Just as Seed Bomb changes are directly intended to affect one meta Pokémon, so too is the story with the nerf to Spark dropping from 6 damage to 5: this is directly intended to nerf LANTURN. There used to be other meta things that ran Spark because they had to, but they've all gotten other tricks since then that are now preferred (Volt Switch for Magnezone and family, Volt Switch for Charjabug, etc.). Yes, some others like LUXRAY and PROBOPASS remain as collateral damage, but those are just occasional spice considerations. No, the only truly meta change here is to Lanturn, as intended.
But how bad is it? Overall, it's not TOO significant. Lanturn now loses to Registeel in 1v1 shielding (and not surprisingly gets a bit less dominant versus other things like Azumarill and Mandibuzz), Medicham and Charjabug in 0shield, and Altaria and Annihilape in 2shield. Those ARE some big names, but where you primarily wanted it before, it still works, albeit sometimes with a little less left in the tank at the end. Farming things down obviously gets harder! It drops from formerly ranking #12 in Great League 20 spots to now #32 (at the time of this writing), but still... a Top 30ish option is still a really good PvP Pokémon.
...oh, but uh, there's a caveat: it's now ranked at #32 with Water Gun, while Spark Lanturn has dropped all the way down to #66. That may be a little harsh, but does make sense. Ironically, the rating with Water Gun goes UP from #35 to now #32. I don't knwo that I'm quite ready to say that Water Gun Lanturn is now the clear favorite over Spark Lanturn, but they're now both moving into "sidegrade" territory for sure, with Spark still being best for things like Mandibuzz, Poliwrath, and Sableye, but Water Gun carving out wins against Galarian Stunfisk, Shadow Gilgar, Carbink... and the Registeel that Spark now loses to. Water Gun is also far better now [with shields down], beating things that Spark cannot like G-Fisk, Shadow Gligar, and Carbink again, along with Charjabug and Shadow A-Slash, while the only unique win Spark holds onto is Dewgong. Interestingly, Water Gun Lanturn can also now win the head to head with Spark Lanturn in 2v2 shielding. Spark and Water Gun now deal the same damage per turn, so Water Gun's shorter cooldown wins the day.
Again, I do not think Lanturn is going to suddenly disappear from Open formats or even PvP in-person tournaments. But I DO think its use is going to go down as it slips back a tier or two in the meta. I mean, it almost HAS to. And yes, I do think Water Gun variants are going to be far more common now. Again, you almost HAVE to move that direction now, at least for certain team compositions. We'll see how bad it gets soon enough.

A SEARING REVIEW

Speaking of getting bad, a brief mention for the other notable nerf with this update: Scald. It retains its nice cost to damage ratio of 1.7 Damage Per Energy (50 energy for 85 damage), but the chance for it to lower the target's Attack is going to drop. We don't know how much, but considering it currently sits at 50%, something like 30% seems a resonable expectation, and that's what PvPoke has put up speculatively as well. I'm NOT going to turn to simulations here, as moves with a percentage change of triggers are notoriously difficult to portray that way, to the point of almost being deceptive to even try. But I hardly think this marks the death of intended targets like WHISCASH or POLIWRATH unless, perhaps, the percentage change completely craters at like 20% or below. It's still good damage output and still a great STAB move for each of them. The rankings show Shadow Whiscash only dropping from #23 to #27 (though non-Shadow does take more of a hit, from a former #27 to now #42) and Poliwrath sees only a very small dip as well (#31 → #34 for Shadow and #46 → #48 for non-Shadow in Great League, and basically no change in Ultra League {non-Shadow drops only spot from #5 to #6, and Shadow actually rises from #10 to #9 thanks to other meta shifts}). Yes, this will hurt those who have fallen in love with those two, and surely there will be a slight dip in tournament play. But I don't think this is nearly the death knell some are making it out to be.
I DO think this may convince me to give up my Bubble LUDICOLO I've been running in GL of late, though. Scald triggering was the difference between life and death against some things like Gilgar. And other slightly-less-meta things like TENTACRUEL may suffer a little bit as well, but again, the change isn't all that bad. (Tentacthulhu, for example, usually counts on Acid Spray for debuffing hijinks anyway and saves Scald as a closer... it's less reliant on the debuffing it can sometimes provide.)

IN SUMMATION

And that's it! Barring any last minute surprises by Niantic (ALWAYS a possibility), there's your review of all changes coming with the Shared Skies Season. As a quick reminder so people don't panic, keep in mind that while the new season starts on the 1st as per usual, the move updates will not go live until June 3rd, as a nice gesture to not disrupt the planned PJCS and Bologna tournaments that weekend.
By way of quick summary of the above (here's your TL;DR, folks!):
The biggest winners I see in this update are (in rough order) CETITAN (maybe CETODDLE?) with Powder Snow, TYPHLOSION with Thunder Punch, UXIE with Swift, SWOOBAT with Fly, SCRAFTY with Thunder Punch, LOKIX with Counter, TREVENANT with buffed Seed Bomb, and then maybe SALAMENCE (Fly) and WHIMSICOTT (Seed Bomb). Other than Cetitan and Typhlosion, I don't know that any of them move drastically up the ranks, but they're all better with this update and bear watching as spice options at the very least.
Alrighty, that's it for now. Back to analysis on the Necrozma Fusions (already in progress) and beyond! Until then, you can always find me on Twitter or Patreon. Or please feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll get back to you as soon as I can!
Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Best of luck as we move into the new season, and catch you next time!
submitted by JRE47 to PokemonGOBattleLeague [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 19:03 JRE47 A PvP Analysis on the GBL Season 19 Move Rebalance

New season, new shakeup! As per usual, we get new moves added to new recipients, and some existing moves get tweaked. Unlike usual, we don't get any all-new moves, but on the plus side, we got all this teased over a week ahead of time, making ol' JRE quite happy. No last minute scramble to get through it all!
But even with a relatively simple move rabalance like this one, there's still plenty to cover. Nowhere will you find analysis that goes to these depths, covering the big names and some others you likely haven't even considered.
Let's do this, people!

(NEW) ATTACK ON TITAN 🌨️

There are several attack changes people are already talking about excitedly with this update, so naturally I'm going to start with... CETITAN? Hear me out, because I think this is one of the biggest (if not THE biggest) move addition in this whole rebalance.
"JRE, you're crazy, man. Ice types are a dime a dozen. What makes Cetitan so special?"
Well judging by my initial PvP review on Cetitan when it was released, not much. I noted it had decent overall bulk and was at least better than Avalugg (with the same Body Slam and Avalanche charge moves, but Cetitan having the better fast move with Ice Shard as opposed to Lugg's Ice Fang), and perhaps had some promise in Master League where Ice types have a lot of advantages anyway, particularly Premier where Legendary Ice types are left on the outside looking in. And now? Enter an even much better fast move than Ice Shard: Powder Snow, which beats all the same ML core meta stuff as Ice Shard plus Origin Giratina, Lugia, and Snorlax in 0shield, Altered Giratina, Swampert, and Gyarados in 1shield, Mewtwo and Reshiram in 2shield, and Xerneas and Zacian in both 1 and 2shield. And again, NO new losses... this is a straight upgrade, folks. In the rankings, Cetitan leapfrogs Avalugg, Walrein, Baxcalibur, and even lomg-time staple Mamoswine in the ratings (and in performance) to trail only Kyurem and Hisuian Avalugg among Ice types, and Cetitan can still do things not even those two can like beating Mewtwo, Excadrill, and Reshiram!
Cetitan does move into the upper ranks of Ice types in other Leagues as well, but there is just a lot of established and versatile competition to contend with like Walrein, Dewgong, Abomasnow, Alolan Sandslash, Arctibax, Aurorus, Froslass, Alolan Ninetales, and even old friends like Lapras. Those mostly all fall away in Master League, leaving the new and improved Cetitan to shoot up the charts more decisively. You'll start to see it all over now, particularly in Cups, but I do think Master League is where it will likely make its biggest mark for those with the means to build it up. It can even beat three out of four Necrozmas! (The Steely Dusk Mane fusion being the only exception, for rather obvious reasons.)
One other League to consider is Little Leaue, and CETODDLE, who gets the same moveset update and does good things with it. Stupid trash can lid Bronzor is still a huge issue, of course, as well as obvious Fires and Fighters and such. But this is easily now one of the best Ice types in Little League and should be a fixture of most Little formats from here on out.
Do I think these two are going to suddenly take over their respective Leagues? Probably not. But do they deserve a heck of a lot more usage, even in Open? Absolutely. There's a reason I chose to lead off with these two!

PUNCHING LIGHTS OUT ⚡

Thunder Punch is not exactly an electrifying move in PvP. Like the other Elemental Punches (Fire, Ice, Thunder), as well as other move clones (Aerial Ace and Stomp), it costs only 40 energy, but deals only 55 damage for a passable but unexciting 1.37 Damage Per Energy. Most things that use it (and there are several, such as Ampharos, Muk, Hypno, Pachirisu, and the Super Raichu Bros.) do so as a bait move, though as with any elemental move, the coverage alone can be nice too (for things like Muk and Hypno, at least). Still, often if it goes through unshielded, that's a loss for the user, as they typically want to bait a shield with it leading up to a big closer like Dark Pulse (Muk), Shadow Ball (Hypno), or Wild Charge (Raichus).
And honestly, that mostly remains Thunder Punch's role for the things now recieving it:

🎼 COME FLY WITH ME, LET'S FLY AWAY! 🦅

Fly is one of the best moves in the entire game: 45 energy for 80 damage, with no drawbacks at all. That's what Sky Attack was from 2018 to 2021, back when it was terrifying in PvP, before dropping to 75 power and eventually going to 50 energy too last year. (What did Sky Attack ever do to you, Hanke?! 😢) But now, in keeping with the seeming skyward theme of the season, old school Sky Attack is being handed out to several new recipients that... uh... could use some help. Is it enough?

NIFTY OR... SWIFTIE? ‍💨

Apologies to the fans of the future Mrs. Travis Kelce (if you know, you know)....
Anyway, long-terrible Normal charge move Swift is finally getting a buff. I think so, at least. Niantic is actually lowing its power from 60 damage to 55, but they are also lowering its cost. How much? That's the part we don't know yet, but PvPoke has speculated it will drop from 55 energy all the way down to 40, and while that's probably the best case scenario, we're gonna roll with it for the purposes of this analysis. If that holds true, the resulting 55 damage/40 every should look quite familiar... it's the same stats as Thunder Punch. And as we talked about earlier, that's usually better for baiting than anything, but it's passable and certainly FAR better than the 60 damage/55 energy it was previously.
Does anything that now gets it (or already has it) actually want to use it, though?
So no big ripples, but hey, Swift is at least not a meme move anymore. And Uxie really likes it now, at least! Let's shake it off 😉 and move along to the last couple move tweaks....

NO GO ADELE 🐉

Sticking with the theme of famous singers... Hello from the other side! 🙃
Okay, sorry sorry. NAGANADEL gets Dragon Claw now. Yay? Sadly this does very, very little for it in PvP, picking up just a single win over Yveltal, of all things, in 1v1 shielding, and no real changes elsewhere. At least this section is easy on me (musical lyric joke counter: 2) and we can move on to the next now.

PATIENCE, YOUNG GRASSHOPPER 🦗

If you don't get the reference, it's from a famous show from the 70s (yes, the 1970s, you youngins) called "Kung Fu". It's a famous show and a famous phrase that you should know. No, I don't just know it because I'm old, it's famous!
...get off my lawn.
Anyway, Counter remains the best fast overall move in the game, so any time something new gets it, that is reason enough to sit up and notice. Even when that recipient is a current Pokémona non grata like LOKIX.
Look, it's very glassy and will likely never be more than spice. This is unlikely to really shake up any meta in a major way. But yes, Lokix is significantly better than before now that it has Counter. It does unfortunately drop Cresselia, but can now outslug stuff like Lickitung, Dewgong, Guzzlord, Vigoroth, Galarian Stunfisk, and even Skarmory and Bastiodon despite how scary those two normally are for Bugs. It sees similar improvement in Ultra League, dropping Fighting-resistent Venusaur and Golisopod but gaining Registeel, Steelix, Alolan Sandslash, Swampert, Walrein, and Greedent, but uh... it has to be leveled up to at least Level 46, and is still a poor option overall. Not worth it, IMO. But keep an eye on it, as the addtion of another impactful charge move could elevate it further. Counter users are ALWAYS worth at least some consideration.

(RE-) PLANTING A SEED 🌱

We all know why Seed Bomb was nerfed from its original 40 to 45 energy: it was felt that something had to be done about TREVENANT, by far the most impactful Seed Bomb user. Yes yes, it got a small damage bump as well (from 55 to 60 damage), but the (completely intended) damage was done, and Trevenant usage dropped quite a bit. The hit wasn't TOO bad, but it was enough.
Now Trevor gets a boost again, with the cost remaining the same but the damage creeping up to 65 now, elevating it from a clone of Wrap (and a slew of stat-altering moves like Icy Wind, Mystical Fire, Lunge, the Forces Of Nature unique Storm moves, and others... but Seed Bomb of course HAS no stat altering and was thus far worse) to a clone of Discharge. Not amazing — a reduction in cost to what it once way would REALLY make a difference — but certainly more palpable.
In the end, it's a small buff to Trevenant — with only a couple new wins like Shadow Dragonair in 1shield and Azumarill in 2shield in Great League, and Feraligatr and Greninja in 1shield and Tentacruel in 2shield in Ultra League — but we'll take it! Those UL wins especially are pretty nice.
Not many other notable Seed Bomb users, but here's what I see: WHIMSICOTT (with Fairy Wind) can now beat Galarian Stunfisk and Azumarill with shields down (in Great League), so that's a small but welcome improvement. Aaaaaaand that's about it. No big changes I see with Little League COTTONEE or BULBASAUR or Little or Great League DARTRIX, and then you're into things like CELEBI. Yeah, this is first and almost entirely centered on Trevenant.

SNUFFING OUT SPARK 🔌

Just as Seed Bomb changes are directly intended to affect one meta Pokémon, so too is the story with the nerf to Spark dropping from 6 damage to 5: this is directly intended to nerf LANTURN. There used to be other meta things that ran Spark because they had to, but they've all gotten other tricks since then that are now preferred (Volt Switch for Magnezone and family, Volt Switch for Charjabug, etc.). Yes, some others like LUXRAY and PROBOPASS remain as collateral damage, but those are just occasional spice considerations. No, the only truly meta change here is to Lanturn, as intended.
But how bad is it? Overall, it's not TOO significant. Lanturn now loses to Registeel in 1v1 shielding (and not surprisingly gets a bit less dominant versus other things like Azumarill and Mandibuzz), Medicham and Charjabug in 0shield, and Altaria and Annihilape in 2shield. Those ARE some big names, but where you primarily wanted it before, it still works, albeit sometimes with a little less left in the tank at the end. Farming things down obviously gets harder! It drops from formerly ranking #12 in Great League 20 spots to now #32 (at the time of this writing), but still... a Top 30ish option is still a really good PvP Pokémon.
...oh, but uh, there's a caveat: it's now ranked at #32 with Water Gun, while Spark Lanturn has dropped all the way down to #66. That may be a little harsh, but does make sense. Ironically, the rating with Water Gun goes UP from #35 to now #32. I don't knwo that I'm quite ready to say that Water Gun Lanturn is now the clear favorite over Spark Lanturn, but they're now both moving into "sidegrade" territory for sure, with Spark still being best for things like Mandibuzz, Poliwrath, and Sableye, but Water Gun carving out wins against Galarian Stunfisk, Shadow Gilgar, Carbink... and the Registeel that Spark now loses to. Water Gun is also far better now [with shields down], beating things that Spark cannot like G-Fisk, Shadow Gligar, and Carbink again, along with Charjabug and Shadow A-Slash, while the only unique win Spark holds onto is Dewgong. Interestingly, Water Gun Lanturn can also now win the head to head with Spark Lanturn in 2v2 shielding. Spark and Water Gun now deal the same damage per turn, so Water Gun's shorter cooldown wins the day.
Again, I do not think Lanturn is going to suddenly disappear from Open formats or even PvP in-person tournaments. But I DO think its use is going to go down as it slips back a tier or two in the meta. I mean, it almost HAS to. And yes, I do think Water Gun variants are going to be far more common now. Again, you almost HAVE to move that direction now, at least for certain team compositions. We'll see how bad it gets soon enough.

A SEARING REVIEW

Speaking of getting bad, a brief mention for the other notable nerf with this update: Scald. It retains its nice cost to damage ratio of 1.7 Damage Per Energy (50 energy for 85 damage), but the chance for it to lower the target's Attack is going to drop. We don't know how much, but considering it currently sits at 50%, something like 30% seems a resonable expectation, and that's what PvPoke has put up speculatively as well. I'm NOT going to turn to simulations here, as moves with a percentage change of triggers are notoriously difficult to portray that way, to the point of almost being deceptive to even try. But I hardly think this marks the death of intended targets like WHISCASH or POLIWRATH unless, perhaps, the percentage change completely craters at like 20% or below. It's still good damage output and still a great STAB move for each of them. The rankings show Shadow Whiscash only dropping from #23 to #27 (though non-Shadow does take more of a hit, from a former #27 to now #42) and Poliwrath sees only a very small dip as well (#31 → #34 for Shadow and #46 → #48 for non-Shadow in Great League, and basically no change in Ultra League {non-Shadow drops only spot from #5 to #6, and Shadow actually rises from #10 to #9 thanks to other meta shifts}). Yes, this will hurt those who have fallen in love with those two, and surely there will be a slight dip in tournament play. But I don't think this is nearly the death knell some are making it out to be.
I DO think this may convince me to give up my Bubble LUDICOLO I've been running in GL of late, though. Scald triggering was the difference between life and death against some things like Gilgar. And other slightly-less-meta things like TENTACRUEL may suffer a little bit as well, but again, the change isn't all that bad. (Tentacthulhu, for example, usually counts on Acid Spray for debuffing hijinks anyway and saves Scald as a closer... it's less reliant on the debuffing it can sometimes provide.)

IN SUMMATION

And that's it! Barring any last minute surprises by Niantic (ALWAYS a possibility), there's your review of all changes coming with the Shared Skies Season. As a quick reminder so people don't panic, keep in mind that while the new season starts on the 1st as per usual, the move updates will not go live until June 3rd, as a nice gesture to not disrupt the planned PJCS and Bologna tournaments that weekend.
By way of quick summary of the above (here's your TL;DR, folks!):
The biggest winners I see in this update are (in rough order) CETITAN (maybe CETODDLE?) with Powder Snow, TYPHLOSION with Thunder Punch, UXIE with Swift, SWOOBAT with Fly, SCRAFTY with Thunder Punch, LOKIX with Counter, TREVENANT with buffed Seed Bomb, and then maybe SALAMENCE (Fly) and WHIMSICOTT (Seed Bomb). Other than Cetitan and Typhlosion, I don't know that any of them move drastically up the ranks, but they're all better with this update and bear watching as spice options at the very least.
Alrighty, that's it for now. Back to analysis on the Necrozma Fusions (already in progress) and beyond! Until then, you can always find me on Twitter or Patreon. Or please feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll get back to you as soon as I can!
Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Best of luck as we move into the new season, and catch you next time!
submitted by JRE47 to TheSilphArena [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 18:32 spacedebriss Expanding on my Deadpool Theory: Does everything come from the Deadpool?

Expanding on my Deadpool Theory: Does everything come from the Deadpool?
THE DEADPOOL THEORY
I stayed up way too late last night and got up way too early this morning trying to put this together. I should probably edit it more, but oh well. This is what I have. I need to go do some other stuff now.
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Probably should have waited to post until I toiled some more. I want to add to the deadpool theory. Not take away from it, just add to it. I think the Deadpool and Retail Pool go more hand in hand. I think the Deadpool is the original pool that feeds the retail pool.
The key for me has always been how the naked shares are created. Over a year ago I honestly reached a point where the DD was a jumbled mess in my mind. I wanted to start from zero and see what I could find, but not really zero because I had read a lot of DD, thanks to others I knew what to start searching for, so I set out.
https://preview.redd.it/tnofbsia273d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fbe5d58f385a92f4bbb7c4e305f59c00ea8a329
CITATIONS
If you think I’m pulling all of this out of my ass similar to how naked shares are pulled out of asses then please go read my old DD with charts and figures, goes more in depth, and has some strong citations in my opinion. OR better yet go absorb some of those citations, especially these first four:
1. THREE ESSAYS ON NAKED SHORT SELLING AND FAILS-TO-DELIVER by John W. Welborn
2. MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE by John W Welborn
3. ETF Short Interest and Failures-to-Deliver: Naked Short Selling or Operational Shorting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg&t=1655s
4. Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility by Thomas Stratmann and John W. Welborn
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2183251
If you’re going to only read one of these then I’d make it this one.
Everybody here should read a little Welborn in my opinion. Dude is the GOAT!
SOME RELEVANT SEC FILINGS:
  1. https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm
  2. https://www.sec.gov/rules/2003/11/commission-guidance-rule-3b-3-and-married-put-transactions
These two are pretty good, especially for understanding the old options loophole.
PDF FILES:
DISCLAIMER: these links will try to download a PDF from the SEC’s website
  1. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.pdf
  2. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2012/34-67451.pdf
  3. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2007/34-56212fr.pdf
  4. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775fr.pdf
  5. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58190.pdf
  6. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58592.pdf
  7. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58572.pdf
  8. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58723.pdf
  9. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58711.pdf
  10. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58773.pdf
  11. https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf
  12. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775.pdf
  13. https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2006/34-54154.pdf
  14. https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
MORE SEC
  1. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
  2. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-155.htm
  3. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1159510/000137036821000064/a210729-ex992.htm
PLAYING BY THE RULES?
I wanted to research that old DD by looking at the rules of naked shorting. When I would look into old DD and theories, I kept ending up at the answer of fraud. They didn’t stand up to the rules, unless lots o’ fraud was involved. Until I got to ETFs….
Now again, if you want more info go read the first four citations up at the top. The first 2 citations are PhD papers covering possible naked shorting and the Options loophole. This is the old way, this Options loophole was closed by the SEC back in 2008. For the new ETF way of naked shorting you can explore citations 3 and 4. These two citations cover how ETFs could be used to still naked short today. This is why I always felt the reactions to my old DD were so strange. I’m basically saying there could be a monstrous naked shorting position out in the market and it could be operating under the rules. No fraud is needed! Why didn’t superstonk respond with more positivity to my old DD a year ago?! I still think that DD did a pretty good job of laying out how naked shorters could be operating under the rules.
The rules make it clear to me that:
BULLET SWAPS – Can’t be used to make naked shares of a stock. If a naked shorter points to bullet swaps as where they got the shares from then the SEC should laugh in their face. You would need a lot of SEC fraud. Bullet swaps would have other good uses, but not for the actual creation of naked shares.
REHYPOTHECATION – The idea here is that the naked shorter borrows shares infinitely. The naked shorter points to the borrow and sure the SEC could let that pass, but it should still count as a borrow. Otherwise, you need more SEC fraud to explain this one. The Market should see the naked short position because it should be tagged as borrowed, and the naked shorter would also need to pay for that borrow. These are both things the naked shorter is trying to avoid – that’s why they create naked shares rather than borrow shares. Alternatively, the naked shorter could have a deal with a broker. The naked shorter does infinite borrows off of the brokers stock, but again you would need fraud from the broker and the broker would likely demand payment on the “borrows”. For rehypothecation to work you need a lot of fraud and naked shorters would likely need to pay borrow fees. Properly creating naked shares within the rules means no borrowing would be done (could be expensive) and means no fraud has to be done.
OPTIONS – This is where it gets confusing. Options used to be used to naked short, I wrote a big DD on this about a year ago. It has a lot of pictures and deep dives into a lot of stuff including options. If you want to learn more about the options loophole, don’t read my old DD, scroll back up to the top and read some of Welborn’s Options work (citations 1 and 2).
You would need two participants to naked short back in the day and I believe that’s how it’s still done today. One would be a Market Maker and one would typically be a Hedge Fund. The Market Maker had special privileges around options, MMs and only MMs could point to un-exercised options as a locate for shares. They create shares out of thin air and send them to a hedge fund. The hedge fund sells the MM back futures contracts and/or calls. The Market Maker uses the calls as a locates and the Market is none the wiser. Or is just apathetic. But they were technically following the rules as written. These packages of naked shares would have been built with options, futures, and naked shares all packaged together. This Options Market Maker loophole went away in 2008.
Options should not be an effective loophole for creating massive amounts of naked shares anymore. Again, you would need lots of SEC fraud.
ETFs – I’m not just throwing ETFs out there. There is a fucking fantastic Welborn paper (citation 4) and also a youtube video from a business professor (citation 3) on ETFs and how ETFs could possibly be used to naked short. To use ETFs you would still need a Market Maker and a Hedge Fund (the HF could be another MM or big institution). The Market Maker has special privileges. 1. They can pull shares out of ETFs. 2. They can also set future redemption/creation dates with that same Hedge Fund and not tell anybody. It seems the Options loophole to naked short was replaced with an ETF redemption/creation loophole to naked short.
Here’s a footnote in an SEC filing – I think this could be a smoking gun:
https://preview.redd.it/bfuyxsab273d1.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=24c82cbb06e78982a452617dccadfa35495df284
Page 10 from: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
The new ETF loophole:
  1. The Market Maker and the Hedge Fund enter into an agreement that the Market Maker will create ETFs for the Hedge Fund far in the future.
  2. The Market Maker sends naked ETFs to the Hedge Fund.
  3. The Hedge Fund sends the naked ETFs back to the Market Maker and redeems them (requests) that the ETFs be opened up for the (naked) shares inside.
If the SEC comes sniffing around they’re just going to see a bunch of shares sitting in the Hedge Funds account. They were pulled out of an ETF for him by the Market Maker. The SEC goes to the Market Maker and the Market Maker says, “yep, pulled ‘‘em out of ETFs for the Hedge Fund.” SEC says, “cool”.
If the SEC goes back to the Hedge Fund and asks where they got the ETFs from he points to the Market Maker. SEC, “sounds good, can I leave you my resume?”
If the SEC goes to the Market Maker and asks where he got the ETFs, the Market Maker would probably say, “Ha! Fuck if I know! I could buy and sell a million of that fucking ETF in a day. You want to look through our ledgers?” SEC, “Oh. I should probably take ‘em, but I’ll just look at porn instead. You guys hiring?”
  1. 4. The Hedge Fund now has naked shares from the Market Maker that look like real shares to the SEC. The Hedge Fund can sell them into the market to naked short and it just looks like selling shares. The Deadpool has been created.
The Deadpool. Naked shorters creating a pool of naked shares between themselves. Now they’d likely want to set expirations for this position far in the future. The Deadpool was just to create the original naked shares. You want to naked short the stock into the ground which could take decades, so you’d want this pool you created to last as long as possible.
These naked shares from the Market Maker to the Hedge Fund would be insured through futures and/or LEAPS. I believe they would likely insure them with one another using futures contracts instead of LEAPS, but I’m not positive. Either way, this “insurance” means that if it gets to expiration and the Hedge Fund hasn’t delivered shares, the Market Maker can use those futures contracts to force delivery. But why might we also see naked shorters holding huge amounts of options? The options could be hedging and leveraging with the wider market (not other naked shorters).
So, if naked shorters are using futures to insure that they won’t be left holding the bag with one another then they would likely want to use common expiration dates for LEAPS. That lets them grab some “insurance” (Call Options) and extra leverage (Put Options) from non-naked shorters. If the naked shorters position blows up and they owe the other naked shorter shares then they can use their calls to get some shares from the market. Or if they’re position does well then they can make extra profits off of their puts.
Here’s a diagram that will hopefully explain some of this better:
https://preview.redd.it/hfdjls4e273d1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=0389d73d3c2129deda4ed4c5966e2f3026acd4a1
The Hedge Fund is selling the naked shares from the Deadpool through the Market Maker into retail hands. Now the hedge fund like the market maker is going to want some futures or calls to make sure the market maker sells the shares back to him. But they’ll probably do this on a shorter timeline. Maybe they built the dealpool with three year expirations. Now they’ll naked short to retail probably using 1 year expirations.
I think retails average is about nine months for holding a stock. A year should be enough time to find a new share to buy in order to close/roll an old naked share. Retail naked shares would likely expire every March, June, September, December. Naked shorters are constantly closing and rolling their naked shorts with retail throughout the year. Or at least that’s the idea, usually retail sells pretty quickly and naked shorters can keep driving the price down.
Here’s a diagram to visualize deadpools and retail pools together. The red is the deadpool. The deadpools are the original pools of naked shares that are created with long expirations. It would make sense to have these expire three years out so 1. they last long – don’t have to keep creating naked shares and 2. they can be hedged/leveraged with the wider market using common expiration dates.
Then the yellow would be the pools of naked shares that are sold to retail. These would have shorter expirations because ideally the naked shorter would want to churn these in a year or less.
The naked shorters create a big deadpool of naked shares that will expire in three years. Then, if they’re using 1 year expirations with retail, they can use those naked shares in the market up to three times.
https://preview.redd.it/klzrhfph273d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=61f058077781d655d9fb4b028fe95c46ecfde0f4
Now look at where expiration dates line up between red pools and yellow pools. January and June. January and June are common expiration dates for LEAPS. Again, if the naked shorters want to hedge/leverage with the wider market then these would be the expiration dates they would want to build their naked shares around.
If the naked shares are built in this way then January of 2021 could have been a time where some of the Retail Pool and some of the Deadpool were expiring. Let’s say it’s a big expiration time and there are not enough shares. Maybe some DFV dude and a bunch of other retail investors are buying calls and shares. In this scenario, the Market Maker would try to find shares to close/roll the position. If unable, then the Hedge Fund would need to exercise their “insurance” and demand the shares from the MM. The Market Maker also has “insurance” though because he’s the big boy and he won’t be left holding the bag. The MM throws down his uno reverse card and screams, “No! You!”
BASKET THEORY – Why do other stocks move hard with GME at certain times?
Alright, let’s say naked shorters are building their positions how I’ve laid out. When naked shorters open the ETFs at the beginning of the deadpool, they are also pulling out naked shares of other companies. They could use those shares for a lot of different things. They could hold them and sell options to make money. Or they could also naked short some of those companies too.
Maybe, they open an ETF and pull out naked GME and some naked POPCORN. They could also naked short POPCORN into the market. It would move differently on a shorter timescale to GME because they’re rolling the position with retail a year at a time. It might move more in line with GME on a longer time scale.
When the deadpool expires they need to finish buying shares and creating ETFs. That could mean buying a bunch of different stocks at one time. Buy some the remaining GME, POPCORN, HEADPHONES, etc. and close/finish rolling your deadpool position by packaging those shares up into nice little ETFs.
2021 – 2024
This could all explain some of the wild stuff we’ve been seeing lately.
  1. Big price movement could signify that a big chunk of the deadpool opened three years ago could be expiring. Was all of that position rolled? Was a really big chunk of the deadpool created three years ago? I honestly have no clue.
  2. June would likely be when a chunk of retail naked shares also need to be closed/rolled. Retail naked shares expiring would be a yearly occurrence.
  3. Price movement of unrelated stocks. If a big chunk of the deadpool was built three years ago and is now expiring that would mean that shares need to be bought in order to finally create some ETFs. ETFs are made from baskets of stocks. If a naked shorters need to buy some other companies to build their ETFs then you could see price jumps in unrelated stocks.
  4. The naked shorted company sells some shares. Sure, some suspicious shit happened with your stock and maybe it could be naked shorting, but naked shorting is illegal and shorts closed, right? Really you just need cash to revolutionize your company so you put it out there that you’d like to start sell some shares. This could look like an off ramp for anyone who was naked shorting or someone who inherited a bunch of naked shorts. Might as well ask if you can get some of those shares. You know exactly when a large chunk of the deadpool is expiring because you’re know holding that toxic shit, so you’ll wait until the last minute to get out. How do you “insure” you can get out? If you can’t get enough shares directly from the company or from the market then your next best bet is options…
  5. Lots of options being bought lately. Let’s say you know you need a shit ton of shares soon and you have a pretty strong feeling that the stock price could rocket soon. You have a finite amount of cash you can spend on shares. You can buy options! We covered how they’re like insurance.
Let’s keep the math simple and use 100 batches since options are sold in 100 share batches. You need 100 shares of Stock A by June 22nd. Stock A is around $20. You do the math and find out you have enough money to buy 100 shares and 1 $20 call. 100 shares of stock A at $20 would be $2000 and let’s say the call would be about $200. You have $2200 total. Now, there’s no guarantee that you can get 100 shares in the market for $20, especially if you think buying pressure is about to turn on hard. By your 100th share you could be paying a lot more, meaning your $2200 could run out before you have 100 shares.
And you NEED 100 shares! The call insures that someone else has to find the shares for $20 each. You spend your $200 on the call option expiring June 22nd. Now you’re guaranteed to get your 100 shares for $20 each even if the price skyrockets. You spent $2200 on 100 shares.
Again, no one knows who is buying these calls or why, but this could line up nicely with my theory that a chunk of the deadpool is expiring soon.
I don’t want to get anyone excited for MOASS. I’ve made bad predictions in the past. In the past I thought a MOASS would probably happen in March, but that was because I hadn’t connected the deadpool to everything. Don’t get hyped, but if deadpools are built with January and June expirations then it would make sense that MOASS could happen in January or June. It would explain why naked shorters almost got fucked in January 2021. If, they were able to survive and push a huge chunk of their deadpool out three years then June 2024 could be a rough time for them. I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee of a MOASS this June/July. I will say that I really would not want to be a naked shorter trying to roll a bad bet on GME this June.
Now this is all conjecture, but what if part of the deadpool needed to be rolled in January of 2021? Meaning the Hedge Fund needed to settle up with the Market Maker so they could finish closing the deadpool and keep the position rolling.
Now the Deadpool was the original pool of naked shares. The Market Maker pulled these naked shares out of ETFs and sent them to the Hedge Fund. Naked shorters usually want to keep the train going until the company is bankrupt so they’d usually keep closing and rolling the deadpool until that happens.
So, if you’ve followed along then January of 2021 could have been a pretty key date where a Market Maker may have needed to buy to settle a portion of the Retail Pool. These would be shares that the Hedge Fund naked shorted to retail through the Market Maker – insuring with futures and/or LEAPS. Then the Hedge Fund would have also needed to finish settling a portion of the Deadpool back to the Market Maker that’s about to expire. Again, these deadpool naked shares are the original naked shares pulled out of ETFs, probably three years ago. They’ve been using and abusing that naked share with retail for three years, probably a year or so at a time.
If the position blew up, say in January of 2021 then some Hedge Funds would have also blown the fuck up. First, the market maker would go to the market and try to buy shares. No shares. The market maker turns to the hedge fund and says, “sorry, no shares.” This is why the Hedge Fund bough “insurance” or hedged with his “buddy”. The Hedge Fund uses his contracts with the Market Maker to say, “here’s the cash, where are the shares?”
The Market Maker plays his reverse uno card: The original contracts he made with the Hedge Fund when the naked shares were created and says, “No! You!”
Hedge Fund: Fuck! There are no shares!
MM: Not my problem. Where are my shares?
Market: No shares.
The Market Maker has the Hedge Funds other positions liquidated until there’s enough cash to buy shares in the market. In asinine cases where this happens the market might allow the Market Maker to just turn off the buy button to save his sorry ass. This is considered by many to be complete bullshit.
The deadpool is closed/rolled. Possibly three years into the future. 2021 to 2024.
I think there might always be a Deadpool that then feeds the Retail Pool.
My other DD adds to the Deadpool theory and rehashes some of this, but the gist is that if you can create a deadpool with your “buddy” then could you just add a ton to the deadpool three years ago through the market to drive the price down and not add it to the retail pool. In other words, more naked shares that drive the price down, but they end up in your “friends” hands. He also want to drive the price down so you can worry less.
Adding to the deadpool in a really desperate time would make sense to me. Now if a bunch of shares were added to the deadpool three years ago and were split by the splividend then how does that all work? I think with a normal split, naked shares that are split in the deadpool could be settled with cash. Does the splividend change that?
In other words, if there were a bunch of naked shares shat into the deadpool three years ago. Then they were split, but delivery was delayed until expiration. And now they’re finally expiring. Can they be settled with cash or do real shares need to be bought to fulfill the long overdue splividend?
THE DRS POOL
https://preview.redd.it/ms98f80j273d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=958b2ec20c2b21ca40347d8ee64fdb1b442b653b
This just tries to simplify thing. The way the naked share is likely built results in it ending up in a deadpool between the naked shorters. They then pull naked shares from the deadpool and send them out into the market to naked short.
Good thing, you have recourse! Believe you’ve been sold a naked share?! Your only way to truly find out if you have a real share or not is by DRSing. Pull your shares into the DRS Pool. Now you can have peace of mind that it’s a real share.
ENDGAME
If I were a naked shorter facing a potential MOASS, what would I do?
  1. CHAOS & INFIGHTING – I would make sure I have as much control over the group as I could. If a MOASS pops off then I want to get hodlers fighting and not listening to one another. Confusion! Panic! Sell! I need their shares! I need hodlers to sell!
If I’m a naked shorter then I don’t want people to stay calm. I don’t want them learning about the market or sharing what they’ve learned. I want confusion.
  1. FEAR OF CALLS – Yes, I am pro options, but no I’m not telling you to go buy options. Options are risky, but if you know what you’re doing they can be very beneficial. In this scenario, I’m a naked shorter facing down a MOASS and I want people to sell shares. I really don’t want hodlers buying LONG CALLS or LEAPS. These are call options shot way out into the future, they’re risky, but less risky then short term options. Now, if I’m a naked shorter why don’t I want hodlers buying LONG CALLS?
  2. I could hedge that position by buying shares – if I’m super naked I probably won’t though. But if someone else sells the call they might hedge by buying shares.
  3. I want shares! I NEED shares! If I start smashing that buy button and no one sells then the price goes up until someone does. If everyone is hodling their shares and the price is going up then CALL options are getting more expensive. That means if hodlers have shares and calls they can sell the calls for profits and not sell me (the naked shorter) a single one of their shares. They can keep hodling, and/or use call profits to buy more shares and/or buy calls.
The price rises. Hodlers sell their calls for profits instead of their shares. I can’t find shares. The price rises. Hopefully, you get the picture.
HOW WOULD A MOASS START IN THIS SCENARIO?
Alright, we don’t know why a MOASS would pop off. It would probably be expiration dates and/or too many DRSd shares. But we still actually do know why: naked shorting, not enough shares, buy button smashed, price goes boom!
If it’s built the way I explained here, then MOASS means the Market Maker went to the market to buy some shares and there weren’t enough shares. But they like REALLY NEED SHARES. The price rises.
If it gets to expiration of some of the retail naked shares and they haven’t been rolled then the position starts unraveling.
MM: No shares.
HF: Contract. Shares now!
MM: No! You!
HF: Fuck.
MM: Margin Call
HF: I’m dying.
Let’s say this is what happened last time. The Hedge Funds blew up, if it happened again, would it now be a Market Maker and a bigger Market Maker stuck in this death loop?
MM: I have assumed the position.
lol
MM: Fuck, you know what I meant. I absorbed the HF’s toxic naked shorts!
So, if the Market Maker absorbed the naked short side of the play and is now the one who will be margin called. Who absorbed the Market Maker’s side? The one holding the “No! You!” reverse uno card this time around? If the Market Maker can’t survive like the Hedge Fund? Can the new guy survive like the MM did last time?
TL;DR
Some PhD papers by Welborn everyone needs to read like three years ago!
Options were used to naked short in the past – Welborn explains how.
ETFs likely used now – again, read Welborn. Please!
I layout how ETFs are likely pulled apart and shuffled around to create naked shares or what I like to call a deadpool. Dead shares that shouldn’t even exist.
Then the deadpool is pulled from to send naked shares into the market.
Again, if you want to learn how I got here I have a long DD from a year ago in my history OR preferably go read Welborn’s work.
The way this is all done means because of the way the naked shares are sent to market there could be weird price movement around triple-witching dates. March/April, June/July, SeptembeOctober, DecembeJanuary. Triple-witching dates are March, June, September, December, but I push them out a month because Market Makers get a little extra leeway that us common folk don’t get. Again, in my old DD I talk about why they could potentially have an extra month tacked onto their expirations.
Then because of the way the shares are originally pulled out of ETFs there could be weird movement around common expirations for LEAPS. January and June.
January and June could be extra special times where a batch of naked shares are expiring in the hands of retail and need to finish being rolled. While, also having a batch of naked shares originally created for the deadpool that need to finish being rolled.
I know this is all confusing, but basically I believe the rules allow a loophole for naked shorting through ETFs. I believe the way those naked shares are created makes a deadpool parked with naked shorters. When they want to match a buy on the market (retail buys a share) they then pull a naked share out of the deadpool and send it to retail. Naked shares in the deadpool hangout for about three years at a time meaning they need to be closed or rolled within 3 years. Naked shares to retail would likely be done with a 1 year expiration since retail usually churns through shares fast. You’re able to create a naked share and sell it to retail and buy it back and sell it and buy it several times before the naked share needs to be renewed (rolled – a new naked share created and the old one finally closed).
Using ETFs could also explain weird movements in other stocks. If you’re already pulling a bunch of different stocks out of the ETF (not just GME) then you could use some of those naked shares to naked short other stocks as well. You’d be selling to retail at different times so the price may not move in tandem around the triple-witching dates, but they could move similarly around deadpool expiration dates. Remember, to close the naked shares from the deadpool you need to buy shares and create the ETFs. January 2021 could be a time where you need to buy a bunch of different stocks to close/roll some of the deadpool. June 2024 could also be a time where naked shorters might need to buy a bunch of different stocks in order to finally create some ETFs. You might see some unrelated stocks suddenly increasing in price at the same time.
In my opinion, if a stock is heavily naked shorted, then a MOASS would kick off for 1 of 2 reasons.
  1. All or enough of the Real Shares are DRSd, and the naked short position is revealed in the market.
  2. Converging expiration dates cause naked shorters to buy large amounts of stock at one time mixed with strong retail buying. I think this may have been what happened in January 2021 – it’s a common expiration date for the derivatives used to naked short and there was strong retail buying. It’s possible something similar is happening in June of 2024 – a common expiration date and would be 3 years from 2021 allowing for LEAPS to be bought on the wider market. And this time around, there’s also still strong buy pressure, hodling, and DRSing.
This summer could be exciting, but it’s not a MOASS guarantee. I think DRSing and hodling is the only true guarantee to uncover naked shorting.
submitted by spacedebriss to Superstonk [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 18:32 spacedebriss Expanding on my Deadpool Theory: Does everything comes from the Deadpool?

Expanding on my Deadpool Theory: Does everything comes from the Deadpool?
THE DEADPOOL THEORY
I stayed up way too late last night and got up way too early this morning trying to put this together. I should probably edit it more, but oh well. This is what I have. I need to go do some other stuff now.
NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Probably should have waited to post until I toiled some more. I want to add to the deadpool theory. Not take away from it, just add to it. I think the Deadpool and Retail Pool go more hand in hand. I think the Deadpool is the original pool that feeds the retail pool.
The key for me has always been how the naked shares are created. Over a year ago I honestly reached a point where the DD was a jumbled mess in my mind. I wanted to start from zero and see what I could find, but not really zero because I had read a lot of DD, thanks to others I knew what to start searching for, so I set out.
https://preview.redd.it/1iagyg39273d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b7b06f16f46956a06e00f5b3de49133e6227c53
CITATIONS
If you think I’m pulling all of this out of my ass similar to how naked shares are pulled out of asses then please go read my old DD with charts and figures, goes more in depth, and has some strong citations in my opinion. OR better yet go absorb some of those citations, especially these first four:
1. THREE ESSAYS ON NAKED SHORT SELLING AND FAILS-TO-DELIVER by John W. Welborn
2. MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE by John W Welborn
3. ETF Short Interest and Failures-to-Deliver: Naked Short Selling or Operational Shorting?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg&t=1655s
4. Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility by Thomas Stratmann and John W. Welborn
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2183251
If you’re going to only read one of these then I’d make it this one.
Everybody here should read a little Welborn in my opinion. Dude is the GOAT!
SOME RELEVANT SEC FILINGS:
  1. https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm
  2. https://www.sec.gov/rules/2003/11/commission-guidance-rule-3b-3-and-married-put-transactions
These two are pretty good, especially for understanding the old options loophole.
PDF FILES:
DISCLAIMER: these links will try to download a PDF from the SEC’s website
  1. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.pdf
  2. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2012/34-67451.pdf
  3. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2007/34-56212fr.pdf
  4. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775fr.pdf
  5. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58190.pdf
  6. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58592.pdf
  7. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58572.pdf
  8. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58723.pdf
  9. https://www.sec.gov/rules/othe2008/34-58711.pdf
  10. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58773.pdf
  11. https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf
  12. https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58775.pdf
  13. https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2006/34-54154.pdf
  14. https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
MORE SEC
  1. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
  2. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-155.htm
  3. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1159510/000137036821000064/a210729-ex992.htm
PLAYING BY THE RULES?
I wanted to research that old DD by looking at the rules of naked shorting. When I would look into old DD and theories, I kept ending up at the answer of fraud. They didn’t stand up to the rules, unless lots o’ fraud was involved. Until I got to ETFs….
Now again, if you want more info go read the first four citations up at the top. The first 2 citations are PhD papers covering possible naked shorting and the Options loophole. This is the old way, this Options loophole was closed by the SEC back in 2008. For the new ETF way of naked shorting you can explore citations 3 and 4. These two citations cover how ETFs could be used to still naked short today. This is why I always felt the reactions to my old DD were so strange. I’m basically saying there could be a monstrous naked shorting position out in the market and it could be operating under the rules. No fraud is needed! Why didn’t superstonk respond with more positivity to my old DD a year ago?! I still think that DD did a pretty good job of laying out how naked shorters could be operating under the rules.
The rules make it clear to me that:
BULLET SWAPS – Can’t be used to make naked shares of a stock. If a naked shorter points to bullet swaps as where they got the shares from then the SEC should laugh in their face. You would need a lot of SEC fraud. Bullet swaps would have other good uses, but not for the actual creation of naked shares.
REHYPOTHECATION – The idea here is that the naked shorter borrows shares infinitely. The naked shorter points to the borrow and sure the SEC could let that pass, but it should still count as a borrow. Otherwise, you need more SEC fraud to explain this one. The Market should see the naked short position because it should be tagged as borrowed, and the naked shorter would also need to pay for that borrow. These are both things the naked shorter is trying to avoid – that’s why they create naked shares rather than borrow shares. Alternatively, the naked shorter could have a deal with a broker. The naked shorter does infinite borrows off of the brokers stock, but again you would need fraud from the broker and the broker would likely demand payment on the “borrows”. For rehypothecation to work you need a lot of fraud and naked shorters would likely need to pay borrow fees. Properly creating naked shares within the rules means no borrowing would be done (could be expensive) and means no fraud has to be done.
OPTIONS – This is where it gets confusing. Options used to be used to naked short, I wrote a big DD on this about a year ago. It has a lot of pictures and deep dives into a lot of stuff including options. If you want to learn more about the options loophole, don’t read my old DD, scroll back up to the top and read some of Welborn’s Options work (citations 1 and 2).
You would need two participants to naked short back in the day and I believe that’s how it’s still done today. One would be a Market Maker and one would typically be a Hedge Fund. The Market Maker had special privileges around options, MMs and only MMs could point to un-exercised options as a locate for shares. They create shares out of thin air and send them to a hedge fund. The hedge fund sells the MM back futures contracts and/or calls. The Market Maker uses the calls as a locates and the Market is none the wiser. Or is just apathetic. But they were technically following the rules as written. These packages of naked shares would have been built with options, futures, and naked shares all packaged together. This Options Market Maker loophole went away in 2008.
Options should not be an effective loophole for creating massive amounts of naked shares anymore. Again, you would need lots of SEC fraud.
ETFs – I’m not just throwing ETFs out there. There is a fucking fantastic Welborn paper (citation 4) and also a youtube video from a business professor (citation 3) on ETFs and how ETFs could possibly be used to naked short. To use ETFs you would still need a Market Maker and a Hedge Fund (the HF could be another MM or big institution). The Market Maker has special privileges. 1. They can pull shares out of ETFs. 2. They can also set future redemption/creation dates with that same Hedge Fund and not tell anybody. It seems the Options loophole to naked short was replaced with an ETF redemption/creation loophole to naked short.
Here’s a footnote in an SEC filing – I think this could be a smoking gun:
https://preview.redd.it/wl18r6p7273d1.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=2072c332bad9ba42c108ed477fbb0d27d4e983b8
Page 10 from: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2020/34-89088.pdf
The new ETF loophole:
  1. The Market Maker and the Hedge Fund enter into an agreement that the Market Maker will create ETFs for the Hedge Fund far in the future.
  2. The Market Maker sends naked ETFs to the Hedge Fund.
  3. The Hedge Fund sends the naked ETFs back to the Market Maker and redeems them (requests) that the ETFs be opened up for the (naked) shares inside.
If the SEC comes sniffing around they’re just going to see a bunch of shares sitting in the Hedge Funds account. They were pulled out of an ETF for him by the Market Maker. The SEC goes to the Market Maker and the Market Maker says, “yep, pulled ‘‘em out of ETFs for the Hedge Fund.” SEC says, “cool”.
If the SEC goes back to the Hedge Fund and asks where they got the ETFs from he points to the Market Maker. SEC, “sounds good, can I leave you my resume?”
If the SEC goes to the Market Maker and asks where he got the ETFs, the Market Maker would probably say, “Ha! Fuck if I know! I could buy and sell a million of that fucking ETF in a day. You want to look through our ledgers?” SEC, “Oh. I should probably take ‘em, but I’ll just look at porn instead. You guys hiring?”
  1. 4. The Hedge Fund now has naked shares from the Market Maker that look like real shares to the SEC. The Hedge Fund can sell them into the market to naked short and it just looks like selling shares. The Deadpool has been created.
The Deadpool. Naked shorters creating a pool of naked shares between themselves. Now they’d likely want to set expirations for this position far in the future. The Deadpool was just to create the original naked shares. You want to naked short the stock into the ground which could take decades, so you’d want this pool you created to last as long as possible.
These naked shares from the Market Maker to the Hedge Fund would be insured through futures and/or LEAPS. I believe they would likely insure them with one another using futures contracts instead of LEAPS, but I’m not positive. Either way, this “insurance” means that if it gets to expiration and the Hedge Fund hasn’t delivered shares, the Market Maker can use those futures contracts to force delivery. But why might we also see naked shorters holding huge amounts of options? The options could be hedging and leveraging with the wider market (not other naked shorters).
So, if naked shorters are using futures to insure that they won’t be left holding the bag with one another then they would likely want to use common expiration dates for LEAPS. That lets them grab some “insurance” (Call Options) and extra leverage (Put Options) from non-naked shorters. If the naked shorters position blows up and they owe the other naked shorter shares then they can use their calls to get some shares from the market. Or if they’re position does well then they can make extra profits off of their puts.
Here’s a diagram that will hopefully explain some of this better:
https://preview.redd.it/bfupzl3f273d1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cb63fd2f137a5f0b71d304663d91b16fdcd6ac4
The Hedge Fund is selling the naked shares from the Deadpool through the Market Maker into retail hands. Now the hedge fund like the market maker is going to want some futures or calls to make sure the market maker sells the shares back to him. But they’ll probably do this on a shorter timeline. Maybe they built the dealpool with three year expirations. Now they’ll naked short to retail probably using 1 year expirations.
I think retails average is about nine months for holding a stock. A year should be enough time to find a new share to buy in order to close/roll an old naked share. Retail naked shares would likely expire every March, June, September, December. Naked shorters are constantly closing and rolling their naked shorts with retail throughout the year. Or at least that’s the idea, usually retail sells pretty quickly and naked shorters can keep driving the price down.
Here’s a diagram to visualize deadpools and retail pools together. The red is the deadpool. The deadpools are the original pools of naked shares that are created with long expirations. It would make sense to have these expire three years out so 1. they last long – don’t have to keep creating naked shares and 2. they can be hedged/leveraged with the wider market using common expiration dates.
Then the yellow would be the pools of naked shares that are sold to retail. These would have shorter expirations because ideally the naked shorter would want to churn these in a year or less.
The naked shorters create a big deadpool of naked shares that will expire in three years. Then, if they’re using 1 year expirations with retail, they can use those naked shares in the market up to three times.
https://preview.redd.it/55ganyyg273d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=2eff4244c5d67337a077df6025a879b192ad7553
Now look at where expiration dates line up between red pools and yellow pools. January and June. January and June are common expiration dates for LEAPS. Again, if the naked shorters want to hedge/leverage with the wider market then these would be the expiration dates they would want to build their naked shares around.
If the naked shares are built in this way then January of 2021 could have been a time where some of the Retail Pool and some of the Deadpool were expiring. Let’s say it’s a big expiration time and there are not enough shares. Maybe some DFV dude and a bunch of other retail investors are buying calls and shares. In this scenario, the Market Maker would try to find shares to close/roll the position. If unable, then the Hedge Fund would need to exercise their “insurance” and demand the shares from the MM. The Market Maker also has “insurance” though because he’s the big boy and he won’t be left holding the bag. The MM throws down his uno reverse card and screams, “No! You!”
BASKET THEORY – Why do other stocks move hard with GME at certain times?
Alright, let’s say naked shorters are building their positions how I’ve laid out. When naked shorters open the ETFs at the beginning of the deadpool, they are also pulling out naked shares of other companies. They could use those shares for a lot of different things. They could hold them and sell options to make money. Or they could also naked short some of those companies too.
Maybe, they open an ETF and pull out naked GME and some naked POPCORN. They could also naked short POPCORN into the market. It would move differently on a shorter timescale to GME because they’re rolling the position with retail a year at a time. It might move more in line with GME on a longer time scale.
When the deadpool expires they need to finish buying shares and creating ETFs. That could mean buying a bunch of different stocks at one time. Buy some the remaining GME, POPCORN, HEADPHONES, etc. and close/finish rolling your deadpool position by packaging those shares up into nice little ETFs.
2021 – 2024
This could all explain some of the wild stuff we’ve been seeing lately.
  1. Big price movement could signify that a big chunk of the deadpool opened three years ago could be expiring. Was all of that position rolled? Was a really big chunk of the deadpool created three years ago? I honestly have no clue.
  2. June would likely be when a chunk of retail naked shares also need to be closed/rolled. Retail naked shares expiring would be a yearly occurrence.
  3. Price movement of unrelated stocks. If a big chunk of the deadpool was built three years ago and is now expiring that would mean that shares need to be bought in order to finally create some ETFs. ETFs are made from baskets of stocks. If a naked shorters need to buy some other companies to build their ETFs then you could see price jumps in unrelated stocks.
  4. The naked shorted company sells some shares. Sure, some suspicious shit happened with your stock and maybe it could be naked shorting, but naked shorting is illegal and shorts closed, right? Really you just need cash to revolutionize your company so you put it out there that you’d like to start sell some shares. This could look like an off ramp for anyone who was naked shorting or someone who inherited a bunch of naked shorts. Might as well ask if you can get some of those shares. You know exactly when a large chunk of the deadpool is expiring because you’re know holding that toxic shit, so you’ll wait until the last minute to get out. How do you “insure” you can get out? If you can’t get enough shares directly from the company or from the market then your next best bet is options…
  5. Lots of options being bought lately. Let’s say you know you need a shit ton of shares soon and you have a pretty strong feeling that the stock price could rocket soon. You have a finite amount of cash you can spend on shares. You can buy options! We covered how they’re like insurance.
Let’s keep the math simple and use 100 batches since options are sold in 100 share batches. You need 100 shares of Stock A by June 22nd. Stock A is around $20. You do the math and find out you have enough money to buy 100 shares and 1 $20 call. 100 shares of stock A at $20 would be $2000 and let’s say the call would be about $200. You have $2200 total. Now, there’s no guarantee that you can get 100 shares in the market for $20, especially if you think buying pressure is about to turn on hard. By your 100th share you could be paying a lot more, meaning your $2200 could run out before you have 100 shares.
And you NEED 100 shares! The call insures that someone else has to find the shares for $20 each. You spend your $200 on the call option expiring June 22nd. Now you’re guaranteed to get your 100 shares for $20 each even if the price skyrockets. You spent $2200 on 100 shares.
Again, no one knows who is buying these calls or why, but this could line up nicely with my theory that a chunk of the deadpool is expiring soon.
I don’t want to get anyone excited for MOASS. I’ve made bad predictions in the past. In the past I thought a MOASS would probably happen in March, but that was because I hadn’t connected the deadpool to everything. Don’t get hyped, but if deadpools are built with January and June expirations then it would make sense that MOASS could happen in January or June. It would explain why naked shorters almost got fucked in January 2021. If, they were able to survive and push a huge chunk of their deadpool out three years then June 2024 could be a rough time for them. I’m not going to say it’s a guarantee of a MOASS this June/July. I will say that I really would not want to be a naked shorter trying to roll a bad bet on GME this June.
Now this is all conjecture, but what if part of the deadpool needed to be rolled in January of 2021? Meaning the Hedge Fund needed to settle up with the Market Maker so they could finish closing the deadpool and keep the position rolling.
Now the Deadpool was the original pool of naked shares. The Market Maker pulled these naked shares out of ETFs and sent them to the Hedge Fund. Naked shorters usually want to keep the train going until the company is bankrupt so they’d usually keep closing and rolling the deadpool until that happens.
So, if you’ve followed along then January of 2021 could have been a pretty key date where a Market Maker may have needed to buy to settle a portion of the Retail Pool. These would be shares that the Hedge Fund naked shorted to retail through the Market Maker – insuring with futures and/or LEAPS. Then the Hedge Fund would have also needed to finish settling a portion of the Deadpool back to the Market Maker that’s about to expire. Again, these deadpool naked shares are the original naked shares pulled out of ETFs, probably three years ago. They’ve been using and abusing that naked share with retail for three years, probably a year or so at a time.
If the position blew up, say in January of 2021 then some Hedge Funds would have also blown the fuck up. First, the market maker would go to the market and try to buy shares. No shares. The market maker turns to the hedge fund and says, “sorry, no shares.” This is why the Hedge Fund bough “insurance” or hedged with his “buddy”. The Hedge Fund uses his contracts with the Market Maker to say, “here’s the cash, where are the shares?”
The Market Maker plays his reverse uno card: The original contracts he made with the Hedge Fund when the naked shares were created and says, “No! You!”
Hedge Fund: Fuck! There are no shares!
MM: Not my problem. Where are my shares?
Market: No shares.
The Market Maker has the Hedge Funds other positions liquidated until there’s enough cash to buy shares in the market. In asinine cases where this happens the market might allow the Market Maker to just turn off the buy button to save his sorry ass. This is considered by many to be complete bullshit.
The deadpool is closed/rolled. Possibly three years into the future. 2021 to 2024.
I think there might always be a Deadpool that then feeds the Retail Pool.
My other DD adds to the Deadpool theory and rehashes some of this, but the gist is that if you can create a deadpool with your “buddy” then could you just add a ton to the deadpool three years ago through the market to drive the price down and not add it to the retail pool. In other words, more naked shares that drive the price down, but they end up in your “friends” hands. He also want to drive the price down so you can worry less.
Adding to the deadpool in a really desperate time would make sense to me. Now if a bunch of shares were added to the deadpool three years ago and were split by the splividend then how does that all work? I think with a normal split, naked shares that are split in the deadpool could be settled with cash. Does the splividend change that?
In other words, if there were a bunch of naked shares shat into the deadpool three years ago. Then they were split, but delivery was delayed until expiration. And now they’re finally expiring. Can they be settled with cash or do real shares need to be bought to fulfill the long overdue splividend?
THE DRS POOL
https://preview.redd.it/2yv2husj273d1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=21dd192a3f928710978067ddd41ef445d74b50bc
This just tries to simplify thing. The way the naked share is likely built results in it ending up in a deadpool between the naked shorters. They then pull naked shares from the deadpool and send them out into the market to naked short.
Good thing, you have recourse! Believe you’ve been sold a naked share?! Your only way to truly find out if you have a real share or not is by DRSing. Pull your shares into the DRS Pool. Now you can have peace of mind that it’s a real share.
ENDGAME
If I were a naked shorter facing a potential MOASS, what would I do?
  1. CHAOS & INFIGHTING – I would make sure I have as much control over the group as I could. If a MOASS pops off then I want to get hodlers fighting and not listening to one another. Confusion! Panic! Sell! I need their shares! I need hodlers to sell!
If I’m a naked shorter then I don’t want people to stay calm. I don’t want them learning about the market or sharing what they’ve learned. I want confusion.
  1. FEAR OF CALLS – Yes, I am pro options, but no I’m not telling you to go buy options. Options are risky, but if you know what you’re doing they can be very beneficial. In this scenario, I’m a naked shorter facing down a MOASS and I want people to sell shares. I really don’t want hodlers buying LONG CALLS or LEAPS. These are call options shot way out into the future, they’re risky, but less risky then short term options. Now, if I’m a naked shorter why don’t I want hodlers buying LONG CALLS?
  2. I could hedge that position by buying shares – if I’m super naked I probably won’t though. But if someone else sells the call they might hedge by buying shares.
  3. I want shares! I NEED shares! If I start smashing that buy button and no one sells then the price goes up until someone does. If everyone is hodling their shares and the price is going up then CALL options are getting more expensive. That means if hodlers have shares and calls they can sell the calls for profits and not sell me (the naked shorter) a single one of their shares. They can keep hodling, and/or use call profits to buy more shares and/or buy calls.
The price rises. Hodlers sell their calls for profits instead of their shares. I can’t find shares. The price rises. Hopefully, you get the picture.
HOW WOULD A MOASS START IN THIS SCENARIO?
Alright, we don’t know why a MOASS would pop off. It would probably be expiration dates and/or too many DRSd shares. But we still actually do know why: naked shorting, not enough shares, buy button smashed, price goes boom!
If it’s built the way I explained here, then MOASS means the Market Maker went to the market to buy some shares and there weren’t enough shares. But they like REALLY NEED SHARES. The price rises.
If it gets to expiration of some of the retail naked shares and they haven’t been rolled then the position starts unraveling.
MM: No shares.
HF: Contract. Shares now!
MM: No! You!
HF: Fuck.
MM: Margin Call
HF: I’m dying.
Let’s say this is what happened last time. The Hedge Funds blew up, if it happened again, would it now be a Market Maker and a bigger Market Maker stuck in this death loop?
MM: I have assumed the position.
lol
MM: Fuck, you know what I meant. I absorbed the HF’s toxic naked shorts!
So, if the Market Maker absorbed the naked short side of the play and is now the one who will be margin called. Who absorbed the Market Maker’s side? The one holding the “No! You!” reverse uno card this time around? If the Market Maker can’t survive like the Hedge Fund? Can the new guy survive like the MM did last time?
TL;DR
Some PhD papers by Welborn everyone needs to read like three years ago!
Options were used to naked short in the past – Welborn explains how.
ETFs likely used now – again, read Welborn. Please!
I layout how ETFs are likely pulled apart and shuffled around to create naked shares or what I like to call a deadpool. Dead shares that shouldn’t even exist.
Then the deadpool is pulled from to send naked shares into the market.
Again, if you want to learn how I got here I have a long DD from a year ago in my history OR preferably go read Welborn’s work.
The way this is all done means because of the way the naked shares are sent to market there could be weird price movement around triple-witching dates. March/April, June/July, SeptembeOctober, DecembeJanuary. Triple-witching dates are March, June, September, December, but I push them out a month because Market Makers get a little extra leeway that us common folk don’t get. Again, in my old DD I talk about why they could potentially have an extra month tacked onto their expirations.
Then because of the way the shares are originally pulled out of ETFs there could be weird movement around common expirations for LEAPS. January and June.
January and June could be extra special times where a batch of naked shares are expiring in the hands of retail and need to finish being rolled. While, also having a batch of naked shares originally created for the deadpool that need to finish being rolled.
I know this is all confusing, but basically I believe the rules allow a loophole for naked shorting through ETFs. I believe the way those naked shares are created makes a deadpool parked with naked shorters. When they want to match a buy on the market (retail buys a share) they then pull a naked share out of the deadpool and send it to retail. Naked shares in the deadpool hangout for about three years at a time meaning they need to be closed or rolled within 3 years. Naked shares to retail would likely be done with a 1 year expiration since retail usually churns through shares fast. You’re able to create a naked share and sell it to retail and buy it back and sell it and buy it several times before the naked share needs to be renewed (rolled – a new naked share created and the old one finally closed).
Using ETFs could also explain weird movements in other stocks. If you’re already pulling a bunch of different stocks out of the ETF (not just GME) then you could use some of those naked shares to naked short other stocks as well. You’d be selling to retail at different times so the price may not move in tandem around the triple-witching dates, but they could move similarly around deadpool expiration dates. Remember, to close the naked shares from the deadpool you need to buy shares and create the ETFs. January 2021 could be a time where you need to buy a bunch of different stocks to close/roll some of the deadpool. June 2024 could also be a time where naked shorters might need to buy a bunch of different stocks in order to finally create some ETFs. You might see some unrelated stocks suddenly increasing in price at the same time.
In my opinion, if a stock is heavily naked shorted, then a MOASS would kick off for 1 of 2 reasons.
  1. All or enough of the Real Shares are DRSd, and the naked short position is revealed in the market.
  2. Converging expiration dates cause naked shorters to buy large amounts of stock at one time mixed with strong retail buying. I think this may have been what happened in January 2021 – it’s a common expiration date for the derivatives used to naked short and there was strong retail buying. It’s possible something similar is happening in June of 2024 – a common expiration date and would be 3 years from 2021 allowing for LEAPS to be bought on the wider market. And this time around, there’s also still strong buy pressure, hodling, and DRSing.
This summer could be exciting, but it’s not a MOASS guarantee. I think DRSing and hodling is the only true guarantee to uncover naked shorting.
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2024.05.28 17:54 Appropriate-Bank3858 Stas Rutkowski Arts

Stas Rutkowski Arts
Hello,
If you are seeking information on some of the works of Stas Rutkowski as an Artist, Muscian, Immersive environment creator, Film-maker, Creative Director, Internet and AI pioneer.
Artist Stas has created visual artwork is entire life. This work has been shown, commissioned and he presents 2D fine art, both digital and traditional, created installations and immersive experiences and supporting live video projections for many of the worlds most well-known and cutting edge musicians of the last 20 years. A part of Stas’ background in the arts being as the son of Casimir Rutkowski a revered south fork of Long Island, New York oil painter and art educator. You will find examples of his artworks across every well populated, social network and sharing resource. He often makes his work available completely to the Internet.
In 2023 – helped found the nationally recognized organization of Artacom, which presented in Summer of 2023 I. Southampton, New York over 30 artist and included in the nonprofit fundraising exhibit. The works of masters, such as Pablo Picasso were available for sale and presented in VR worlds to help support the Southampton Cultural Center
Muscian Stas has a highly unconventional approach to creating music sometimes simply as soundscapes other times utilized in a process where the in immediate intuiting of lyrics is made necessary in a one take only process to help tell the story of a specific expression of music as to what it is relating to. Stas works with music, making concepts of his own design and has had specific artist names as a musician for each of these varied approaches as they had different rules sets about how and what and why they were doing what they were doing. The core goal is to create an impactful experience that is similar to a high, but without the intaking of traditional substances used for such exulted experiences, he demands that the work can create the same exulted experience and be used as a medicinal tool to help us be in a state of awe.
One of the simplest ways to hear his work is across the following YouTube channels.
Stas presents transformation music and video titles, documentation and works under these artist names:
Absent - 2013-2014 https://youtube.com/@absent4799?si=_3fD8kK3sM9W8CqE
Sentient Light - 2015-2020 https://youtube.com/@sentient-light?si=NEQ-dVXt5YbizLNK
ApeX - 2015-2024 https://youtube.com/@apex-official?si=pEeK8UWc2ThvE-QW
360 Station - 2015-2024 https://youtube.com/@360station?si=hKG5IyWHWsjkoM8N
Ultimately - 2021-2024 https://youtube.com/@ultimatelymusic?si=zk9IYQOVXnPcfZOu
360 Degrees https://youtube.com/@threehundredsixtydegrees?si=IqDf0IgnwgEuy_Yb
Stas Rutkowski https://youtube.com/@stasrutkowski5457?si=teZQHKGReqtckauA
Professionally inquiries to Stas may be made at 360d.com by email, phone and by connecting with Stas Rutkowski on LinkedIn.
This post will be followed up to expand into the further contributions and background and works of Stas Rutkowski.
submitted by Appropriate-Bank3858 to StasRutkowskiArts [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 16:52 lykwydchykyn WTT/S: Homespun Apparati Cleverly Contrived for the Musical Mangling of Guitarical Voltages! Also cheapies and more... WTTF: The wretched refuse of your teeming boards.

Hope my fellow Americans had a nice long weekend! Needing to clear some space here, so I'll give priority to bundling for your more expensive items or straight cash sales, but offer away anyway!
TLDR
I got:
I want:
Section I: Stuff I have made myself
(If you are NOT into handmade stuff, skip to section II.)
This is hand-built stuff that I made, mostly relatively unique or heavily tweaked designs built on vero or point to point. Many are housed in upcycled tins, a few in Hammond boxes. They all run on standard 9v pedal power. These aren't clones for the most part, unless they are; but normally I actually monkey about with the circuits quite a bit or just test out wacky ideas. If you want something nobody else has, you're in the right place…
I have the handmades valued in 4 tiers:
MOBILE USERS: There are 4 columns in the tables below: Name, Tier, Links, and Notes. If you don't see all 4, scroll over or ask for more info.
Fuzzes and whacky tone manglers
Name Tier Links Notes
Bazz Me Fuss You #1 A PIC DEMO A bazz-fussified perversion of the Escobedo push-me-pull-you, featuring controls for octave and volume. This is the first unit I've built using my own custom PCB. Housed in a painted 125B with top jacks.
Space Fuzz B+ PIC DEMO This is a Hollis crash sync fuzz that I souped up with an LFO to modulate the filtesync frequency. Really wild flangery/phasey type gated fuzz sound. At the right settings you can get some octave-down effects as well. Housed in a ~3.5 inch square game tin reinforced with recycled plastic. Pretty pleased with this build.
SwirlFuzz B+ PIC DEMO Modulated octave fuzz prototype. It's an octave fuzz, but you can switch on an LFO to modulate the octave amount. Controls for Rate, Depth, Gain, and Volume, plus switches for waveshape and mode (Normal/Octave/Modulated). In a circular tin reinforced with recycled plastic.
Baller Fuzz B PIC DEMO Another Bazz-Me-Fuss-You build with an added BMP-style tone control. In a slightly beaten-up heart-shaped basketball tin. Y'all ready for this?
Big Green Fuzz for Attractive Bass Players B PIC Demo Like my bazz-me-fuss-you circuit, but with a big muff tone stack, a clean blend, and optional clippers for more compression. Housed in a big round tin reinforced with recycled plastic and designed specifically for attractive bass players. Unattractive ones may not really gel with this.
Creature from the planet Chyowngg B PIC Demo Prototype of a unique fuzz I've been developing that I call the Chyowngg fuzz. It's a 2-stage octaver that gives a bright synthy tone with a distinctive envelope (hence the name). You can toggle each stage from octave to non-octave mode for a variety of interesting timbres. Also has a tone control, but the tone control is before the octave stages so it results in interesting behaviors depending on the switch settings. It's in a tin meant to be painted like an alien, though some say it looks more like a triceratops.
Dumbo's Bazzrite Fussrite C PIC Demo A bazz-fussified mosrite fuzzrite circuit I cobbled together in point-to-point wiring style. Housed in a little Dumbo puzzle tin with GLITTER! Controls are for balance (kind of tone-cum-gain) and volume.
Wiff Spwinkles on Top C PIC Demo This point-to-point fuzz lives in the same neighborhood as the Harmonic Percolator, but has a few differences. I altered the way the gain knob works, and added a switch to toggle bass cut. It's housed in an ice-creamity welly tin.
Drives, Distortions, and Boosts
Name Tier Links Notes
Bronze Drive A PIC Demo This is a point-to-point, transistor based overdrive I designed based loosely on the Davisson Easy Drive. Good for low-gain crunchy tones and plenty of output volume on tap if you want it for a boost. Tone circuit is like a BMP stack but with a mid hump instead of a mid cut. Housed in a painted 125B.
Copper ZenerMorph Drive B PIC Demo This is an experiment in zener diode clipping. Nice crispy drive that gets beefier as you turn up the gain, lots of good edge-of-breakup tones to be had. Housed in a decorated tin reinforced with some recycled plastic.
Shining Hope Drive B PIC Demo Differential mirroring drive, gives a kind of overdriven-mixer-channel distortion. Controls for gain, tone, and volume. Housed in a star-shaped Christmas tin.
B is for Beast C PIC DEMO This fun little drive/boost consists of two cascading MOSFET gain stages with optional clipping in between. It goes from clean and loud to massive wall-of-gain distortion nicely. Controls for gain, clipping, and volume. In a small heart-shaped tin about 4in by 4in.
Green Sparkler Boost D PIC Just an Escobedo Duende JFET boost built point-to-point in a sparkly little round tin. Gives a little gain and a bit of warmth to the tone.
Non-Dirt (Filters, modulation, noisemakers, etc)
Name Tier Links Notes
Quack like a penguin B+ PIC DEMO Third build of the Chykka Wakka, a WIP all-transistor envelope filter. This one is built on vero, and features controls for Q, Range, and Attack, as well as toggles for Voicing and envelope smoothing. Housed in a smallish penguin tin reinforced with recycled plastic.
Gift of Chykka Wakka B PIC DEMO First build of an all-transistor envelope filter I designed. Built point-to-point style and housed in a little giftbox tin reinforced with recycled plastic. Controls for Q and Sweep, switch toggles envelope smoothing.
Vortex of Funk B PIC DEMO Second build of the Chykka-Wakka circuit, this one features attack, Q, and range controls. Built point-to-point and housed in a painted tin.
BZZZ BOOP BEEP B PIC DEMO A basic square wave oscillator on a momentary switch. Can go from bzzz to boop to beep with a sweep of the big knob. Also has tone and volume controls, and a 3-way switch for different decay amounts. Use it to simulate a spring door stopper or dying cow. Or bleep your foul-mouthed frontman. Or mess with the sound guy. Or send Morse code to the bar. I dunno. Housed in a painted tin reinforced with recycled plastic.
Little Solid-State Amps
Name Price/Trades Links Description
Ample iMank $65 PICS DEMO This is a Runoffgroove Ruby Amplifier built into this old multimedia speaker enclosure designed to look like an old iMac. Glows blue when you turn it on. It runs from a standard 9v pedal power. It's not terribly loud, nor terribly clean, but if you dig the classic mac vibe it might be fun. Controls for gain and volume, and a power switch on the back.
Nosy Amp $75 PICS DEMO Another solid-state amp based on the Ruby amplifier, housed in a repurposed bookshelf speaker. This one actually has pretty decent volume, even on 9V (can run on 12V as well for more), and can stay clean while getting loud enough for a quiet jam with friends.
Section II: Stuff I did not make
Make an offer. I respect Reverb Price Guide values, though I may lean high if it's a feeler.
Brand Name Condition Notes
Danelectro Fab Chorus Excellent Cheap plastic chorus, but sounds great. Probably just a make-weight, too cheap to trade on its own.
Caline 10-band EQ Good Works fine, I just don't really need 10 bands of EQ. Has velcro on the back, and sometimes makes a weird noise when you turn on the pedalboard. Another make-weight.
Ibanez PH7 Good Tonelok phaser. Great pedal, has some glue on the bottom I couldn't get off, but works fine. No box.
BOSS TU-12H Good Crusty vintage tuner from Boss. Still works great, but it's missing the outer case (still has the inner part). If you had one in the day and want to relive the magic, feel free to make an offer.
Digitech RP360 Very Good Great multifx, I've gotten some fun sounds out of it, but it isn't seeing much use. I'm just more of a discrete FX guy I guess. No Box.
MOTU MIDI express Good This is an antique MIDI patchbay and interface. It's pre-USB and uses the parallel cable (PC) or some kind of Apple-specific DIN cable (Mac). Could be used standalone, or maybe you're into retro MIDI setups? Comes with box and cables anyway.
unknown builder PedalPCB Cataclysm Very Good This is a really solid build of a PedalPCB cataclysm (Disaster Transport Jr clone) built by someone other than me. Pics here. Not sure what to value it, but make an offer. No box, of course.
Local (Nashville TN area) ONLY
This stuff is heavy and I don't want to ship it.
Brand Name Condition Notes
TEAC A3340S 4-Track Reel-to-Reel Good Cleaned up, oiled up, and in good working order last time I tried it out. Meant to do some analog recording, but just haven't gotten the time or space. Would trade for a decent instrument of some kind. Might even throw in a copy of Craig Anderton's "Home Recording for Musicians", which uses the same unit.
Altec-Lansing Power amp (9442A) Fair 300 W, 2 rack-unit power amp, can work in stereo or bridged mode. Last time I used it one of the channels was a little flaky. Couldn't be bothered to fix it myself. Heavy as all get out, I'll sell for cheap if you're local.
Section III: What would I trade for??
Short answer: I'm wide open to trades for music gear of all kinds and other items of value.
Some Priority Wants:
Other things I'd likely trade for:
Probably not wants:
A Note about mods/repairs/custom jobs: Feel free to shoot me your ideas, but probably I'm leaning toward not doing these. Expect to pay/trade way more for something custom than what I ask for the pedals I've already built.
submitted by lykwydchykyn to letstradepedals [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 16:40 RealPerson1797 The Dunwich Legacy Scenarios Ranked - Part 1

You may not have heard of me yet, but fear not, for once this ranking has entered the annals of only the finest Arkham Horror: The Card Game articles my inclusion in the zeitgeist will be as pervasive as it is justified. I am a man with only the finest, and hottest, of takes. For too long have I waited in silence as people spout their terrible opinions, and I feel now it is my duty, nay, my privilege to put you in your place. I warn you in advance, this list will turn everything you thought you knew about The Dunwich Legacy on its head, so deep is my insight that you will never look at the world the same way again, for my controversial opinions will rock you to your very core. So, let us begin…
8) Undimensioned and Unseen
Saying Undimensioned and Unseen (U&U) isn’t good is just about as cold a take as you can get in Arkham. That’s because it’s an objectively true statement. However, in saying that, it’s nowhere close to being my least favourite scenario. I am still going to absolutely rip into it though.
U&U is one of the only scenarios in Arkham which relies almost solely on a single stat, and in doing so really curtails how much fun a lot of investigators will have with the scenario. If you have low willpower you are less than useless in trying to do any of what actually matters here, and solely exist to help your high willpower brethren in wrecking shit. Assuming the layout of the locations allows them to wreck shit at all. There’s also only so many times I can say “Wow Jacqueline, you’re doing a Fine job” because there is nothing for Winnifred to do before one of the people I’m playing with stuffs as many cards as they can down my throat, letting the laughter from my own jokes turn into chokes as I breathe my last short breaths.
U&U feels like an outlier from the rest of the campaign mechanically. Sometimes it’s good to have a scenario completely change the way you look at a campaign (City of Archives springs to mind here) but I do not feel that is true here. It is one of the few scenarios in The Dunwich Legacy to feature neither The Beyond or Sorcery encounter sets which define a lot of my thoughts when thinking about Dunwich, although it is certainly a threatening encounter set. It doesn’t fit into the campaign structure well, always feeling like It comes out of nowhere and then disappears as quickly as it arrived.
The repercussions of this scenario are also minimal in terms of overall impact, with a handful of doom being added in Where Doom Awaits should things go badly and that’s it. Outside of all the trauma you acquire, both in game and the real emotional trauma you get from being forced to play this scenario.
People will often joke that the best way to play U&U is to just reign immediately and move on straight away to Where Doom Awaits. While this may sometimes be the optimal strategy, these people are cowards and I despise them. But fear not people who always play U&U regardless of how low Willpower their investigator might be, I despise you too, just less than the other lot. However, the fact that this can be the attitude of a lot of the community goes to show that this scenario has some very glaring flaws. Have I ever personally skipped it? No! Is this also the case when I was playing a 1 Willpower investigator (not Diana) true solo with no hope of success? Yeah, I managed to kill a whole one of them before running away, tail between my legs, and I enjoyed the hell out of that kill. Going against the odds and coming out slightly better than you would have otherwise is what Arkham is all about!
Location randomisation is one of my favourite parts of the Dunwich legacy, there is a lot of replayability in seeing which locations will appear and when, however I feel that it is at its worst in U&U. Even with high will power investigators, you are pretty much required to put at least a couple of clues on the Broods if you wish to consistently deal them damage, and then moving the broods to advantageous positions, but that can be near impossible depending on the layout of locations you get.
Of the 6 locations, 3 come with variants where one has a brood moving effect and the other has a placing clues effect, 2 come with two clue placing variants and 1 comes with a clue placing variant or a forced damage condition. This means that there is a one in eight chance you will be unable to manipulate Brood movement in the game. Alternatively, you also have a one in sixteen shot of only having two locations which allow you to place clues on the Broods, with one of these coming from the token pool as opposed to your own so making it doubly annoying. I understand why it was done this way, and a one in sixteen shot isn’t that likely to come up, is it? But then consider, that is usually better odds than drawing the autolose token, and we all know how often that happens. And the one in eight is even more likely to come up! That’s about the same odds as drawing either the elder sign or the auto lose token, so it basically feels the same odds as the last one… Either of these situations popping up has happened in more than a couple of U&U games I’ve played, and to have an effective game of U&U, brood movement and clue placement are both pretty much essential. Location randomisation is good, but it needs to be more balanced than it is.
But, despite all of this, there’s a lot of things I really like in U&U. This is one of the few Arkham scenarios where the story and the gameplay merge perfectly, primarily in games with a high number of Broods. There is a real sense of hopelessness and desperation in this scenario (and not just because you have to play it) because going up against an invisible unstoppable enemy, only getting more powerful as time goes on, is quintessential Arkham. When this scenario hits it HITS. You against the mythos, doing what you can before you eventually resign, because even in an all mystic campaign this scenario will often prove to be too much.
Never knowing exactly where the most useful locations will be placed, both for moving broods and placing clues, can allow for some really interesting and varied decisions of how best to tackle the Broods. When the planets align and the cosmos is in syzygy this scenario is great, which is something that scenarios like The Devourer Below never are, and this is the reason U&U is far from my least favourite scenario. Pity it is just shit most of the time though, especially in games where Blood on the Altar went badly.
In low Brood games U&U is at best easy and at worst boring. Sure, it’s sometimes nice to absolutely smash a scenario, going against all odds to save the world by the skin of your teeth. It’s another thing entirely to have done so badly in the previous scenario it feels like the game is giving you a patronising pat on the head and saying “Don’t worry kiddo, I’m sure you got it this time.” Which is especially insulting when you, in fact, don’t got it. Because, even at its easiest, Arkham can still absolutely fuck you over in a millisecond. Between this relentless fucking over, you may still have to wait around hoping another Brood can spawn having killed all the other one(s). This is bad design, and just makes you play games like “how many times do you think I can fail investigating this 1 shroud location before something for me to do happens?” For the record, the answer is “A Lot”.
Penalising players for doing well and rewarding players for doing badly is something that is pretty much unique to U&U and Dunwich as a whole, and was thankfully lessened in the later campaigns. This is one of the most obvious signs that Dunwich was a first campaign, checking to see what does and doesn’t work, and this was decidedly something that did not. Plus, it feels harsh on investigators who smashed blood on the altar, and didn’t just choose to then wait around a bit to let their friends get slaughtered so they’d have a couple less Broods to deal with in the next scenario.
But, to give a word to U&U’s credit, in my blind runthrough I really enjoyed it, and a blind runthrough of a campaign is, in a lot of ways, the most important. I had absolutely dropped the ball on Blood on the Altar. (Now, I might try to claim that it was because I was playing true solo with a limited card pool, and it was therefore a hard time, but you must not listen to me as I defend myself. I had done a terrible job deck building and also made nothing but abysmal decisions in game. Their deaths were preventable and I simply did not prevent them. Because I was garbage.) But, after this crashing defeat, it made my comparative victory in U&U all the sweeter. I didn’t smash it, but I did a job I was happy with, and I had a nice time doing it.
U&U is a scenario which suffers the more you play it, you see its faults for what they are and compare it to the rest of what Arkham put out and it does not hold up well. But on a first runthrough of a first campaign, it can be a genuinely pleasant and enjoyable experience, and I think it’s good that I remember that sometimes…
But then I remember my second playthrough of it where I got fucking curb stomped by 4 Broods and I think “Oh yeah, this scenario is garbo” and that’s why it’s in 8th place on the list. Although I still like it, I promise! This scenario is only fun to play some of the time, and I think every other scenario in this campaign is fun to play every time.
7) Where Doom Awaits
Another cold take, I know. The hot takes are coming soon, I promise! I definitely wouldn’t start an article the way I did and then proceed to have the most milquetoast opinion about everything. That would be insane, and only a madman destined to go down in history as both an idiot and a loser would do such a thing! So I promise, the hot takes are just around the corner… probably. But I can’t change my thoughts, and Where Doom Awaits (WDA) is not a scenario I ever really love to play.
WDA is a scenario which scuppered more than a couple of runs for most of you reading this I’m sure. I imagine there’ll be one of you thinking “Wow, you’d have to be really shit to lose the campaign here” and newsflash, yeah, I was, but I’ve also lost it when I was playing well with good decks too! And that’s a positive if you can believe it or not.
Whenever I approach Where Doom Awaits it’s with a feeling of trepidation. I am well aware that this could be the end of the campaign, that a couple of sub-optimal decisions or good ol’ fashioned bad luck could lead to an early finale. Some of you might consider failing a scenario resulting in a campaign loss to be a mistake, but I really like most of the scenarios which do this when they appear. The feeling of dread really adds to the scenario, there is a palpable tension whenever I play it, I am worried about losing because of the price that comes with it.
I think it’s well positioned as a campaign losing scenario. The 7th scenario is a logical place for you to fall down and lose, missing the minimal amount of content if you’re playing as a full campaign. And I have genuinely never replayed this scenario after losing, I’ve just shrugged, cried manly tears at my bitter loss, and moved on with my life. Though the hurt never truly goes… But having any kind of emotional reaction at all is a great sign that the scenario is good. This ending is very in keeping with Arkham, and a lot of what I like about the Arkham Horror Card Game is the whole vibe of it, being Alone Against the Horror (upcoming solo Call of Cthulhu rpg book written by me, release date: Never). And this scenario captures that feeling. Now if only the scenario were good enough to back those feelings up…
WDA is a penultimate scenario and it knows it. It’s clearly trying very hard to set the stage for an epic final confrontation and is determined to throw everything it has at you to prove that. However it is in the fact that it's throwing everything at you that lets itself down. WDA has one of the most varied encounter decks of any Arkham scenario, and that just leads to the threat feeling… muddled. You are hit in so many different ways that no one of those ways feels like it could kill you on its own. Even the Sorcery encounter set, which is usually terrifying, here just means that (as with most of Dunwich) you probably shouldn’t be playing a draw focussed deck, but the encounter deck probably won’t kill you because of it.
This isn’t helped by the fact that the encounter deck is a whopping 40 cards big (where most scenarios float around the high 20s, low 30s range) which may seem intimidating at first, but when playing true solo, as I usually do, it just makes it incredibly swingy as to whether anything can hit you hard enough on its own to put you in real danger. It’s more likely to have the devastating cards hit you in high player counts, but then you already have the higher player count to help counteract that, and often the same player would need to draw multiple of the same type of effect to be hit really hard. WDA is scary because of what it might do to you, not because of what it actually is. What it is is a higgledy-piggledy collection of threats that looks scary, but when you look closer you realise it is actually just a deck of cards on your table, placed there unominously.
I had not been planning on talking about the Return To variants of these scenarios in this article, as I have a much better understanding of the base scenarios than the altered ones, and yet I feel obliged here to bring up the fact that the Base of the Hill and Ascending Path locations are kind of busted in the game as written, and whenever I play this scenario I swap them out for their return to versions so am considering that in this ranking. By changing this the scenario becomes much better. Not enough to put it any higher up the list, but better nevertheless. But even having to do this is a real issue with the scenario, especially as the return to version of the cards are now potentially going to be unobtainable for new players, leaving them with the original janky version.
One thing I don’t see this scenario getting enough credit for is its use of the agenda cards. For many first time players seeing the doom tracker going up to double digit values seems unthinkable, and is a very effective moment. Sure, nowadays that’s more commonplace, but back when this first came out this made the scenario have a unique feel to it. The epic scale of things coming to ahead. Equally, the use of flavour text on the Agenda 2 card is very effective, being foreboding and different from what people who had only played the core set before Dunwich would have seen. Sadly, however, this has also suffered a bit in that other scenarios have been released which have better agenda cards, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t still good. But it doesn’t quite hit the same way if you’ve played certain other campaigns before Dunwich.
As far as playing the actual scenario goes, walking up the hill is fine and all, and I understand what they were going for, but it feels like less of a set piece than the designers seem to think it is. Wind howls through the air, rain pelting down onto the soft Earth as our unlikely heroes make their way towards their last stand, a light in the distance atop the hill, where either the world ends or they jump into the void, potentially losing themselves forever… See, really cool, but what it actually feels like is spending ages to get a whopping 2 locations away from where you start. It’s annoyingly anticlimactic for a penultimate scenario, and despite everything else this scenario has going for it (which is not loads anyway) this is a let down.
Overall, do I like WDA? Well yeah, I said I liked U&U and that’s ranked below this one so it only stands to reason that I like all of the scenarios in this campaign. But this is the last of the scenarios in The Dunwich Legacy where I feel I have to put a little asterisk next to it to qualify my opinion, that I like it but it’s deeply flawed. It’s an epic scenario in all but execution, but the idea is there, and sometimes the idea is enough. Not here though, the game has to be good too, obviously. It’s unfortunate that my two least favourite Dunwich scenarios occur back to back as this really holds this campaign back from being one of the greats. I mean sure, I’ve replayed it dozens of times, but if you’re reading this article, let’s be honest, which of us hasn’t?
6) The Miskatonic Museum
If it wasn’t obvious by now, the me having hot takes thing at the start was a lie. My takes are as cold as ice my friend, I was being facetious for the sake of entertainment. You could probably predict a lot of where the rest of this list is going because, oh boy, do I agree with a lot of people. Although, in saying that, even having The Miskatonic Museum (TMM) at number 6 in the list might make it higher than some people were expecting. But this should be no surprise to anyone with taste, seeing as it’s good.
TMM is such an interesting and exciting idea for a scenario, the investigator(s) being hunted down by a single terrifying enemy, which only grows in power the more times you bring it down, returning stronger and larger than before, striking when you least suspect. It could be round any corner, always waiting to get you. Pity the Hunting Horror is more of a pushover than anything else.
I know, I know, it gets more powerful later, but often it never reaches the full extent of its power, and it becoming massive can sometimes make it easier to deal with than otherwise, as now you can move away from the location with impunity and only take a single point of horror and damage. It is not as scary as it needs to be, even at full strength, especially if you’re playing the rules as written.
The Dunwich Legacy has a lot of moments in it where I have to consider the rules as written and the rules as intended. This is early in the series and a lot of the things which later scenarios would properly fix are not present here. For example, saving Francis in The House Always Wins only to have him disappear because one of you was trapped in the building as it collapses even though he was with another investigator who resigned, it doesn’t make sense! And while doing anything else goes against the rules as written, I sometimes just keep him with me because that’s what logically would happen. The way the Hunting Horror works is clearly meant to work in the way implemented in the Return To box, with it always becoming more powerful every time it comes out, and not ignoring the effects on the reverse of the agenda when it advances. This is another situation where I always play with this variant as this was clearly an oversight. But even then the Horror only moves from a non-entity to an annoyance.
The reason some enemies are so deadly in Arkham is because they are not the only ones you are dealing with. An enemy can go from a mild threat to devastating by even a single other enemy being engaged with you at the same time. This is, obviously, not always the case, but the Horror would feel much more threatening if there was something else to back it up, however that would defeat the whole point of the scenario, and I believe maintaining this unique aspect of the scenario is the most important thing. This is the scenario where you’re being hunted by something. But it’s the fear of what it is, of never knowing when it might return, that keeps the scenario interesting. It’s just that the thing hunting you is kind of lame innit.
The encounter deck mostly focuses on one of two things, making sure you lose your cards as quickly as possible so Beyond the Veil can fuck you up, and making the museum/the Hunting Horror itself as threatening. And it works, this is a very thematic encounter set. Why is the Horror in the museum? Who cares, doesn’t matter! The important thing is that it is there and it wants you dead and the encounter deck makes sure that you know that. I know I’ve gone on about the atmosphere of the game a lot, but it’s very important to me, and this scenario genuinely makes you feel like you’re exploring a museum in the dead of the night. That might be because there’s nothing really there and you mostly just stumble around empty halls until you find what you need, which brings us to everyone's favourite mechanic in all of Arkham. Exploring!
Everyone loves the Explore Mechanic, uncontroversial king that it is with no retconning whatsoever, and this was the design team's first instance of *exploring* the idea. Yes, I am very funny, thank you for noticing. Anyway, this explore deck doesn’t include any treacheries at any point like The Forgotten Age, stop complaining. Although, honestly, having one of the other locations power up the Hunting Horror automatically could be fun. I tend to really like scenarios with this mechanic, because unlocking random locations is fun and you never know what you’ll find. Unless you’ve played enough that you remember what those locations are, as I have done, but then you just pretend you don’t remember and have fun anyway. In The Forgotten Age, the explore mechanic ties in thematically so well to most of the scenarios it’s in, and that all started here in the humble Miskatonic Museum… Pity it doesn’t make any fucking sense to be included here!
In the jungles of Mexico you need to explore to find the secret ruins that are there. Makes sense, this is a logical use of an explore deck, charting unmapped areas. But do you know what places do have maps? FUCKING MUSEUMS! We could save everyone a lot of time and effort if the Investigators would stop looking for clues and would instead look at the presumably signposted area which said “Necronomicon exhibition” and just went there straight away! “No Daisy, why would we look at the map, that’s a stupid idea, let's go look at some heads instead”, “Oh yeah, that sounds sick, let’s do that!” Imbeciles!
Were maps only invented in 1933? Were the people of the 1920s simply walking down the street and going, “If only there were some pictorial image that I could use to navigate, but alas, such an invention is beyond the technology we have today, I shall simply get lost!” I understand that perhaps these are meant to be more exhibitions in the staff areas of the museum, but it certainly seems like some of the exhibition halls are permanent and that these investigators are just buffoons… This is honestly my biggest complaint with the scenario, which might seem insane to some, but I’m right and they should know better. In saying that, I still enjoy exploring the museum mechanically though.
One of the reasons people tend to rank TMM as quite low is due to its ease. This is undeniably one of the easier Arkham scenarios, though calling any Arkham scenario ‘easy’ would be inaccurate, but this is about as close as it gets. But I postulate that that’s because people are playing it wrong. Sure, they might be playing it ‘well’, but playing it well leads to an easy unfun experience, so why do that? I say try and spawn the Hunting Horror as much as possible, make it the biggest of boys. Every time it appears just kill it, shoot it in its smug face and wait for it to pop back in a few turns. “But why kill it? The agenda is about to advance!” Good! That only gives me the opportunity to kill it again!
I play Arkham because I like to feel hopeless, because I’m just so gosh darn great in my regular life I need to experience challenge and loss in a controlled environment. And honestly, in a scenario where the one enemy is meant to be a threat, you don’t cheese it. Let it have its time in the sun and then just kill it anyway because it’s still kind of easy.
Sure, I potentially rank this scenario higher than others because I willingly choose to play sub-optimally, but if I didn’t Ice And Death Part 1 would be completely broken too, so sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do. Speaking of, we demand a Return to The Edge of The Earth! You could make it soooo much better! Please, Fantasy Flight, hear my calls and make my dreams come true! Or are my dreams destined to die as many times as the miserable Hunting Horror, as I sadly put my hundredth resource token on shadow-spawned… ready to kill it again as required. In saying that, however, I often don’t do this and kill it immediately after the agenda advances to stop it coming back, but I am as fickle as I am right, I will do as I wish.
The burning of the necronomicon choice at the end of the scenario is also a nice moment, the first proper post-scenario choice of the campaign, and it’s in keeping with the theme of Arkham. Do you try for restoring Silas in the long run and take the necronomicon, or do you burn it because burning things is fun and I only wish to see things people worked hard on destroyed? Also the book is evil I guess, but I’d burn it even if it was the world's only copy of a book describing in detail how to solve all of the planet's problems. That’d be covered in fire by the time I was done with it!
Anyway, I know I just insulted a lot of this scenario and pointed out a bunch of holes in its design, but I still really enjoy it whenever I play it. Its flaws are lesser than the scenarios lower down in the list. And I always have a fun time when I play it.
5) Extracurricular Activity
Extracurricular Activities (EA) is perhaps my least favourite name of any Arkham scenario I’ve played. Give me the meaningless phrases of The Circle Undone over this shit any day! Like, seriously, doing non-academic stuff at a university. What a spooky idea! Really provokes a sense of dread! (This is sarcastic, it does not.) At least for the House Always Wins (THAW) there’s some sense of darkness behind the name. Extracurricular activities is just a stupid name that isn’t scary and only goes to undermine a mostly good scenario. Like seriously, call it ‘After Hours’, that at least suggests some creepiness. As is, it’s literally just a phrase! Good God. Anyway, I like this scenario, but the name is garbage!
I consider the first two Dunwich scenarios to be very close in terms of quality (which definitely doesn’t give away what the next scenario in the list is going to be) and these have gone back and forth in my head many times as I was writing this. However, at some point you have to observe Schrodinger’s cat and kill it dead, and so EA falls just behind THAW in the rankings today, although tomorrow the cat may be alive and well. Yeah, I know this isn’t how Schrodinger’s cat works, shut up.
I tend to think the scenario is a little easy, but seeing as it is a (potential) first scenario I think it’s fine for it to be on the easier end, and that’s not to say it can’t go horribly wrong. It can and it will. And then, if you do it as a second scenario, even losing a few turns can make it much more difficult.
I think EA really shines in a couple of ways that few other Arkham scenarios do. Firstly, I believe it has one of the most interesting endings of any scenario, mostly because of the openness of it. You are told to try and complete any objective you can find. This is really really cool and I wish more scenarios would do this. Too often Arkham has a tendency to have choices made through text as opposed to through gameplay, and EA is one of the best scenarios in terms of having to actively make these decisions by playing the game.
The first time I played this my mind was blown, determined to find and get every ending, which I have now done. In fact, I’m pretty sure I’ve reached every resolution across all of the Dunwich campaign at least once. Trying to work out every way in which you can win is an interesting challenge and promotes replayability, which is very useful for a scenario early in a campaign as it is one you will be playing more than others. Both for your inevitable tragic deaths further into the campaign, and for all of the many many times you give up on a campaign because you left it slightly too long between sessions and just restart instead. Or maybe that’s just a me thing. However, the multiple endings you can achieve does make it easier to win this scenario than others, as there are so many different avenues you can follow to complete one of the many objectives.
The other way it excels is in how it introduces the mechanics of the campaign for you. When I think of Beyond the Veil and losing cards and dying horribly because of it, this is the scenario I think of. Both because it’s the earliest scenario in Dunwich to use these features, but also because it’s the one where it most ties in mechanically to what you’re doing (perhaps with the exception of Lost in Time and Space). While you are losing cards from your deck you are also removing cards from the encounter deck. Sure, unlike when this happens in The Circle Undone it doesn’t really help you at all, outside of letting you narrow down what has and hasn’t been drawn from the deck. But who cares, on a surface level you are doing the same thing to the encounter deck as the encounter deck is doing to yours! It’s a neat bit of symmetry and it just gives me a nice warm feeling in my stomach.
This is also one of the few scenarios which introduces an extra features (here the encounter deck milling) and remembers that “Wait a minute, some people play true solo, we should probably account for that” and having this programmed in, as opposed to, for example, the final scenario of Hemlock Vale which goes “Sucks to be you Billy-No-Mates! Time to die, DICKHEAD” before kicking you in the teeth and stealing all of your hard earned money. I have also not actually played the finale of Hemlock Vale, so this may be untrue, but the internet seems to suggest what I’ve said is true, and that’s good enough for me…
So, if I’m mostly saying positive things about this scenario, why is it in the bottom half of the list, the name can’t be the reason can it? You’re right, it can’t. As much as the name is STUPID it doesn’t in any way affect my opinion on the scenario. Look at Undimensioned and Unseen. That name is SICK and it's at the bottom of the list. I am not a man who is easily swayed, I base all my opinions heavily on facts, logic, and my own personal bias. Mostly the third one. It’s just that I believe all the other scenarios in the campaign have higher highs than this one. This scenario is almost always good, but very rarely great.
If I had to think of a generic Arkham Horror scenario, either this or the Midnight Masks would pop into my head. And that’s what hurts it, other scenarios try to do similar things and just do it better than this one does. But that does make it a very good introduction to a campaign and the game as a whole. Which brings me to a separate issue. This scenario suffers because of the fact that you can play this and THAW in any order.
If I’m trying to play smart and do well in Dunwich, EA is always the scenario I pick second. The loss of the second agenda feels much harsher in THAW and grabbing Francis from the casino feels like the better choice than saving Rice from the university. One gives you a token for the rest of the campaign, one doesn’t, it’s an easy choice to make (assuming you succeed at least).
But I feel that EA is much much better as a first scenario than a second. It’s the one of the two that introduces the concepts you see across the whole of the campaign. It’s the one which introduces the multiple endings, which is a real wow moment in terms of what the game can do for first time players. For lack of a better way of describing it, for me at least, it feels like a first scenario and not a second. And then you seemingly get punished for making this decision. I know there isn’t an ‘objectively correct’ solution, as I’ve seen people online argue that you should pick EA first as an important opportunity to pick up extra VP, but I feel that’s a much weaker argument, and THAW has a much more interesting side objective if you go for it second which is sorely lacking in EA. Going second it feels like you’re missing content, and I understand why, but it would be nice to see Rice replaced by something more than the alchemical concoction.
Anyway, EA is good, and the main reason it’s below THAW is that I believe THAW is equally interesting when you play it first and when you play it second, and that is not the case for EA. And then for the other 3 scenarios that haven’t made the list, well I just think they’re pretty much always great, whereas EA is merely good.
***
End of part 1 of the ranking! Why? Because I haven’t written the second half yet and this is already stupidly long. I told my friend this whole article probably wouldn’t reach 5,000 words and, oh boy, am I already well over that. It would also definitely go over the character limit for what you can post on reddit too.
I would leave you in suspense as to what is 4th in the list, but I literally already told you, so you’ll just have to deal with the suspense of what’s 3rd to 1st. But they swap around so much in my head I’m not even sure where they’ll be yet.
I hope you have enjoyed reading this and will return for part 2. But if not, that’s fair. You do you Boo!
submitted by RealPerson1797 to arkhamhorrorlcg [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 16:30 jfrptlan [F4M]Seeking a Detailed, Passionate Partner for a Romantic Story

Hello friends! I'll cut straight to the chase. I'm looking for a predominantly Slice of Life roleplay with partner who can match me in writing ability AND a passion for romance! I've got several ideas, scenes, and just more general information floating around in my head but I would really prefer my partner's help in building out intentionally vague ideas. I want to hear your interests and where you’d like as roleplay to end up. Maybe you just have one teeth-rottingly sweet moment in mind but don’t know how to get there? Perhaps a vague theme? Or an idea for a relationship with a setting or plot to go with it? Let’s work on it together!
A little about me:
What I am looking for in a partner:
I'd love to find someone who is in it for the story and open to twists and turns. If something isn't working, lets discuss it! Please let me know what your favorite candy is in the first message or so! Anyways, I'll cut this short in the hopes of continuing the discussion 1 on 1. Toodles!
submitted by jfrptlan to Roleplay [link] [comments]

2024.05.28 15:38 Consumed2010 Total Shuffled Island - Brunch Of Disgustingness / No Pain, No Game

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Votes:
Axel - 7
At the elimination ceremony, Chris goes through his usual speech before announcing that in a shocking twist, today’s vote is completely unanimous. He calls everybody but Axel to get a marshmallow, and Dawn asks her why she voted herself. Axel explains that she and Shawn thought that if she voted herself, the vote would come down to a tie so that Chris would decide who goes home instead of her.
Axel then bids farewell to her friends before walking down the dock of shame. After she leaves on the boat of losers, Chris hands Sammy a vhs tape telling her that it’ll give some closure and maybe cause some drama, giving her the instructions: “You’ll know who this should go to.” This leaves Sammy confused as Chris turns to the camera for his outro.
Chris: Will Max ever have a change of heart? How much longer can Zoey withstand the torture that is Heather? And what secrets does the vhs tape hold? Find out next time, on Total Drama Island!
In-world votes:
Axel - Trent, Dawn, Sammy, Damien, Axel
Brunch Of Disgustingness
The episode opens with the Killer Bass returning to their cabin after the elimination ceremony. Sammy asks what the vhs tape is for, but no one knows. Damien tells her that it has to be important considering Chris himself gave it to her, but he doesn’t know where they could even find a vhs player. Dawn’s more confused about what Chris meant by “You’ll know who this should go to.” and asks why he wouldn’t just give it to whoever needs it. Sammy breaks out into a yawn, so Trent suggests that they all get some sleep and worry about it in the morning, so the four of them say goodbye before going to their separate parts of the cabin.
In the morning, Chris summons the campers to the mess hall, and Owen complains when breakfast isn’t waiting for them. Chris reassures Owen that there’ll be plenty of food soon, before he and Chef mischievously laugh. After regaining his composure, Chris congratulates the contestants on being the last ten remaining in the game, and that next week the teams will become one. Chris announces that with this, the guys and girls will each have one cabin to themselves, and that today’s challenge will be a battle of the sexes. He then says that the campers will have some time to settle down before everyone gets a bite to eat, but he and Chef start laughing again.
Trent and Damien welcome the Gopher guys with open arms and they start bonding over immature jokes. Meanwhile, the girls aren’t as friendly, as Heather shoots angry glares at Dawn and Sammy behind their backs, much to the embarrassment of Zoey.
Confessional:
Zoey: You’d think Heather could at least go five minutes without starting something, but nope! Already she’s lined up Dawn and Sammy like they’re set for execution!
Chris announces that he has good news: No one will be eliminated this week, and instead the challenge is only for a reward. The contestants cheer, and Chris decides to let everyone move their belongings to their new accommodations.
As everyone heads to the cabins, Heather complements Sammy’s hair to get on her good side. Sammy thanks Heather for the compliment, but Dawn is all but impressed.
In the Gopher cabin, Owen hugs Katie goodbye, and insists Max join them. However, Max says that evil doesn’t do hugs. Owen forces Max into a bear hug anyway, much to his dismay. Katie then asks him if he’s feeling okay, and Max questions why she would be asking that.
After packing up his stuff, Shawn heads to the Bass cabin, but is stopped by Heather along the way.
Heather: Look, just because we’re not on the same team anymore doesn’t mean you’re done working for me.
Shawn: Our deal was that I’d work with you. I’m still not part of your alliance.
Heather: With, for, all in the same if you want me to protect you.
Dawn and Sammy arrive in what is now the girls cabin, and Heather continues to sweet-talk Sammy. Dawn asks Zoey how two-faced Heather is, and Zoey rates her a seven. Out of five. Katie comments on how they’re probably getting along way better than the guys, and we cut to them partying over music and pop. Owen lets out a burp, so Shawn responds with an even bigger one, causing one of the doors to shake off its hinges, and even knocking over some trees in the distance. The guys are blown away, and Trent suggests they make Shawn captain. They all agree and cheer Shawn on for a speech.
The contestants return to the mess hall where Chris announces the challenge. He is interrupted by Max asking if they finally made breakfast, causing him and Chef to laugh yet again. Heather is annoyed and asks them why they keep laughing, so Chris tells the campers that the challenge is called The Brunch Of Disgustingness. Everyone will be served a nine course meal, and everyone on each team must finish the dish to get a point, and of course, most points at the end wins. However, everything being served is to be extremely gross. Chris explains that the winning team will get to spend two days at a five-star resort being pampered to their liking, while the losers are stuck at Camp Wawanakwa with Chef.
The guys and girls are presented with the first course: meatballs. Literally. As Owen chows down on his plate, Chef explains that these are beef testicles, causing Owen to frantically spit the food out onto Damien. The girls are also grossed out, but the boys can’t muster up the courage to eat something so personal, so they begin to fall behind. Eventually it’s down to Dawn, who refuses to eat meat, and the rest of the guys, who eventually give up on the inhumane act. Heather tries to pressure Dawn into eating the testicles but Dawn won’t budge. Chris says that while neither team completed the meal, the females performed better, so he gives them a point. He then tells the teams that from now on, the entire team must finish the food to get a point, with no exceptions.
Confessional:
Heather: Dawn’s “morals” might cause us to lose the challenge. I can’t let that tree hugger keep me away from a pedicure.
Chris reveals the next meal to be pizza, which gets the guys excited. However, it just so happens to be that the toppings are live grasshoppers, jellyfish, and live anchovies. Zoey is worried about how dangerous eating jellyfish sounds, but Chris insists that the ones Chef put on the pizzas are completely harmless, causing Chef to look suspiciously nervous all of a sudden. Owen easily gulps down his slice, and reaches for a second, but Shawn stops him, explaining that everyone needs to have a slice. Katie takes a bite of the pizza, and ends up freaking out when she realises she bit a grasshopper’s head off.
Confessional:
Trent: When I was a kid, my parents used to hold me down and force feed me broccoli. They only did it because broccoli is… (Gags) Good for you.
Trent is the last member of the boys to eat the pizza, so he tells Shawn to pin him down while Damien feeds him the pizza, and to not stop no matter how much he panics and fights. Shawn and Damien exchange glances before agreeing, and we see Shawn holding down Trent as he explains that it was just a joke. Damien ends up feeding Trent the pizza slice, winning the guys their first point.
Confessional:
Trent: It wasn’t that bad. I was playing it up for the cameras, you know, to boost ratings. I don’t really mind beef testicles or live grasshopper pizza with jellyfi- (Throws up)
Next up, earthworms covered in snail slime and hairballs. And although the girls put up a good fight, the guys use blindfolds and clothespins to help them believe they’re eating spaghetti. Somehow, it works, scoring them another point.
Chris says that no multi-course meal is complete without soup, so he reveals the next dish to be french bunion soup with hangnail crackers. Sammy decides that if the boys can use blindfolds, the girls can use some tricks of their own. She grabs some funnels from Chef’s kitchen and uses them to down the soup without tasting it. The funnels outspeed even Owen’s appetite, so the girls tie it up.
We then go through a montage of the last five courses. Giant balls of pre-chewed gum, point to guys. Skunk stink smoothies, point to girls. Sandals with caulk icing, point to guys. Garbage can soup, point to girls.
Eventually the campers make it to the final round, and since the score is tied four to four, Chris reminds them that whoever wins this round gets the reward. The campers wait to see what horrible concoction they must eat next, but Chef brings out what looks like normal hot dogs. Chris announces that it’s actually dolphin wieners, but the news doesn’t seem to make much of a difference. However, Dawn is quite upset, saying that eating animals is horrible enough, but dolphins cross the line. Similarly, Damien refuses to eat the hot dog because he finds dolphins super cute and can’t stand to eat one.
Confessional:
Chef: I slave over a hot stove cooking dolphin, no appreciation.
Seeing as neither team gets a point to break the tie, Chris decides that they’ll go to an eat-off. He asks the team who they think has the strongest stomach out of them, and after some consideration, the girls pick Zoey while the boys pick Owen without a second thought. Chris says that whoever can drink more glasses of blended cockroach wins the reward for their team. The two start downing the disgusting drink, and are horrified at its taste. When there’s only three shot glasses left, something gets stuck in Zoey’s throat, giving Owen the opportunity to drink the rest, winning the challenge.
Zoey then pukes up the drinks, and finds what she was choking on. Being a completely intact cockroach. This display causes some of the other campers to hurl as well, which in turn ends up being a chain reaction of people emptying their bowels. Even Chris and Chef start gagging as they wait for everyone to recover.
Chris narrates the aftermath of the challenge, with the guys getting on a yacht while the girls are left behind. And as Chris does his outro, the cameras zoom in on one specific object: The vhs tape.
Returnee Candidates:
Duncan - 3
Leshawna - 2
Scott - 1
Lightning - 1
And the wheel of names picks…
https://preview.redd.it/ai31d0gw663d1.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=098c2b4772743ec30a3472ae1413d1af530d56bf
Immunity Nominees:
Shawn - 2
Damien - 2
Sammy - 1
Dawn - 1
Tiebreaker results:
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https://preview.redd.it/dw4vpx05763d1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cbf9cd7416f4a82c877e427b1ab5fce0305044b
No Pain, No Game
The episode opens with Dawn and Sammy discussing strategy on the beach. Dawn tells Sammy that she can’t trust Heather, but she’s unconvinced. She explains how Heather’s been treating her nicely, and doesn’t listen when Dawn tries to tell her that Heather’s just getting on her good side in order to use her.
A yacht pulls up to the dock, and the guys are dropped off. They’re bragging to each other about how pampered they were, and end up inadvertently making the girls annoyed with them for showing off. Owen brings a tray of chocolates for Katie, but Heather slaps it out of his hands and into the water.
The contestants then hear Chris announce over the loudspeakers that they have finally reached the merge, and that it is every camper for themselves. He then says that he has a little surprise for them as they hear a horn off in the distance. Another, smaller yacht has appeared, carrying Duncan and Chase. Chris explains that they are back by popular demand, and will be returning to the game. Heather asks how they were ever favorites with the audience, and Chris admits that they aren’t, but he and the producers liked them. Shawn reminds Chris of how he always said that no one could ever return to the island, so Chris tells Shawn that he lied.
The yacht stops at the dock, and while Chase seems pretty happy to be back on the show, Duncan is not. He notices that Axel isn’t there and makes fun of her for being eliminated right after him. Shawn defends Axel and insults Duncan back, causing them to almost get into a fight. However Chase breaks the two up and tells them to save the fighting for the next challenge.
Confessional:
Shawn: I can’t believe Duncan insulted Axel like that! She’s such a great person- I mean such a great survivalist. I’m gonna make him pay for that.
Chase: Apparently, when Emma told everyone on national television that I cut her brakes, I lost hundreds of subscribers! So now that I’m back on this show, I’m going to pull pranks and do the most outrageous stunts! I’m sure Chris will thank me once this show's ratings go up.
Chris tells the campers to meet him at the outdoor amphitheater for the challenge, which Owen is excited for. He attempts to give Max a high five, but Max reminds Owen about how Chris said it’s everyone for themselves. On their way to the amphitheater, Damien asks Dawn to fill him in on what happened while he was away.
Dawn: Heather’s been acting nice to Sammy, but she’s just trying to manipulate her.
Damien: Aren’t you and Sammy friends? I’m sure she’d understand if you told her.
Dawn: I tried, but I guess that meeting Trent made her more trusting of other people, because she at least wants to give Heather a chance.
Damien: Great. With no more teams, there’s nothing stopping Heather from sabotaging everyone’s game. It'd be a nice change of pace if she turned out to be a good person.
Dawn: I highly doubt it. I can sense in her aura that her anger stems back to her childhood.
Damien: I always forget that you can do that soul reading thing. It still creeps me out.
At the amphitheater, Chris has set up some makeshift gameshow rafters out of household furniture. He says that today’s challenge will be a twist on the classic game of Say Uncle. Contestants will be put through tests of endurance, aptly named tortures. If they chicken out or fail to last ten seconds, they will be eliminated. The last camper remaining will be rewarded with immunity and a decked out trailer to take home after the show.
Chris picks Max to go first and spins the Wheel Of Misfortune to decide his torture. The wheel lands on turtle puck shots, so Max has to stand unprotected in a hockey net while Chef pelts him with very angry snapping turtles. Max dodges some turtles but gets distracted when he stops to laugh at one that's stuck in the net. Chef then hits a direct shot, causing him to let out a pained yelp. More turtles hit Max, and the final one nails him right in the kiwis, but he stays in the goal so he gets to move onto the next round.
Zoey gets marshmallow waxing, so she has to endure being waxed by molten marshmallows. Once the marshmallows go on, Zoey starts screaming, but she’s muffled from under the molten mask. She lasts the ten seconds, so Chef takes the marshmallows off to reveal that the wax had actually worked. And as a bonus, Zoey gets to move on.
Chris tells Zoey that since she did so well, she gets to choose who goes next. However, he says that if whoever she picks survives the ten seconds, she goes out instead. Zoey thinks for a bit, and Heather starts whispering something in her ear. After Heather finishes, Zoey sighs and chooses Dawn.
Confessional:
Zoey: Apparently Dawn is catching on to what Heather’s trying to do with Sammy, so she wants to keep Dawn from winning immunity. I didn’t like the idea but Heather’s threatening to kick me out of the alliance after I didn’t break up Owen and Katie, so I have no choice.
Dawn gets lake leeches, so she has to survive in a barrel of leeches for ten seconds. Damien steps up and asks Chris if he can do the torture instead of Dawn. Chris tells him that he can, but if he fails, both he and Dawn will be out. Damien gets in and it’s clear the leeches aren’t sitting well with him. Eventually he can’t take it anymore and jumps out of the barrel covered in leeches. As he tries to get the leeches off him, Chris says that he had just missed the ten second mark, so he and Dawn are out.
It’s montage time and we get to see each contestant’s torture. Shawn wears wooden shorts while a woodpecker chips at it, success. Duncan gets his nose hairs plucked, success. Trent gets constricted by a snake, failure. Chase wears a shirt of bees, success. Heather has to jump over some skunks, failure. Sammy listens to some new age music, success. Katie must get a haircut from Chef with a chainsaw, failure. Owen goes to town on ice cream and has to survive a brain freeze, failure.
This leaves Duncan, Zoey, Max, Sammy, Shawn, and Chase for round two.
First up is Shawn, who gets electric eel defibrillation. Chef grabs some electric eels and shocks Shawn with it. To everyone’s surprise, not only does Shawn last the ten seconds, but he also seems completely unharmed.
Confessional:
Shawn: When you’re setting up a live electric fence for the zombie apocalypse, you’re going to electrocute yourself. A lot. Thankfully it means that now I’m practically invincible to being shocked!
Seeing as Shawn was unfazed by his torture, Chris lets him choose the next person to go. Shawn chooses Duncan, who gives him an angry glare.
Duncan gets the bigfoot storage container, in which he must spend ten seconds in a crate with the fabled Sasquatchanakwa. The crate in question is shaking violently and there is growling coming from inside. Duncan shoots another look at Shawn before going in. We hear fighting and Duncan insulting Sasquatchanakwa, before he kicks down the crate’s door while dragging Sasquatchanakwa behind him in a headlock. Chris congratulates Duncan on not only surviving, but somehow beating Sasquatchanakwa in a fight. However, he tells Duncan that since he left the crate of his own accord before the ten seconds was up, he is still eliminated. Duncan is furious by this technicality and swears to Shawn that he’ll get back at him, but Shawn just explains that that’s what happens when he insults Axel.
Chase gets jellyfish scuba diving, so he has to swim in an aquarium tank while dodging a box jellyfish. Some of the contestants gasp at how dangerous the torture is, but Chase eagerly agrees to do it. While in the tank, he swims around the jellyfish and taunts it. The box jellyfish stings him, but he makes it the ten seconds. Chris asks Chase if he needs to go to the infirmary, but he refuses, despite clearly being in pain.
Chris lets Chase choose the next victim, and he chooses by closing his eyes and picking randomly. He lands on Sammy, and asks Chris if he can choose the dare. Chris lets him pick from the Wheel Of Misfortune, and Chase explains that he’s looking for the best, most unbelievable dare. He picks the poison ivy spa treatment, and is disappointed when Sammy chooses to be eliminated instead.
The last two to go this round are Max and Zoey, and both fail at alligator wrestling and literal waterboarding respectively. (The latter of which Chris says he’s doing behind the producer’s back.) This means that Chase and Shawn are the last two remaining, and Chase isn’t looking too good. Damien asks Chase if he’s doing okay and he explains that other than the fact that he can’t feel his spine, he’s great. After hearing that statement, Chris lets Shawn go first.
Shawn gets the grizzly bear log roll, so Chris brings him and the rest of the campers out to the lake where the torture will take place. Chris explains that Shawn must log roll against Molotov the Bear, who happens to be the European log rolling champion for the past twelve years. Plus, Shawn and Molotov will be log rolling over piranha infested waters. Shawn has a stare off with Molotov before he steps onto the log, and the two start going. Shawn has trouble keeping up with Molotov, but soon gets the hang of it. He jumps on the log, and upon landing gets it to stop rolling. This causes Molotov to fall in the water, meaning Shawn moves on.
It’s Chase’ turn, and the jellyfish sting is definitely kicking in. He passes out, so Chris has Chef send him to the infirmary to get treated for the sting. He then announces that Shawn wins immunity and the trailer. As for everyone else, Chris tells them to get ready to vote between themselves.
Later, Dawn thanks Damien for taking the leech challenge instead of her, even if he failed. Damien asks her if she made any progress on getting to Sammy, and her answer disappoints him. He then realizes that Trent would probably have a better time convincing Sammy and that they should tell him what’s happening.
Max, Owen, and Katie are chatting and Max tells them that while he appreciates their help, he’s going to work alone from now on. He thanks them for being his friends and says that he has more evil inventions to tend to. After he leaves, Katie tells Owen that going alone is probably going to go bad for Max in one way or another, and that she’ll miss him.
Duncan finds Heather near the mess hall and tells her that as much as he hates to admit it, he needs allies, and that she’s his best bet. She finds his desperation to be convincing enough and tells him he can join her, but that he must be useful to be worth her protection.
Confessional:
Duncan: With Shawn having immunity, it wouldn’t take much for him to get votes against me. I hate the idea of working for Heather, but it’s not like I have much choice.
Vote off someone other than Shawn, nominate someone for immunity, and come up with any plot points you want to see later.
submitted by Consumed2010 to Totaldrama [link] [comments]

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